On Thursday, I posted an update on three American League rookie pitchers, including Seattle phenom Michael Pineda. One of my criticisms of Pineda was his 56% fly ball rate at the time, which should lead to lots of home runs, despite the fact that he had yet to give up even one long ball. One of the commenters noted Pineda’s fantastic average fastball velocity, currently sitting at 96.1 MPH, and opined that it will be more difficult for hitters to homer off of him, leading to a sustainable depressed HR/FB ratio compared to the league average. Not satisfied with just taking his word for it, I decided to test this hypothesis.

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It’s hard to believe we’re coming up on the first month of the season, and even a little harder to believe some of the surprises in the performances of the boys at the hot corner. In general, this whole group has been pretty disappointing, but much of that has to do with injury and rotten luck. Some have been great, some have been train-wreck-awful, and we have several new names to add via eligibility updates.  And where a rising tide may float all boats, a collapsing building can produce new views – and thus, the tiers have been shaken up quite a bit from the original ranking.

There are so many changes to the original rankings, including the size and number of tiers, that I’m not going to note an up or down for every player that has moved. Rather, I’ll indicate any notable ascent or descent and give a little rationale thereafter.

Tier 1
Evan Longoria
David Wright
Ryan Zimmerman
Alex Rodriguez

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Managing a bullpen isn’t just something for MLB managers, if you’re in a deep league or one that counts holds, you need to be aware of everyone’s workloads to optimize your roster on a day-to-day basis. Every team has played at least 16 games so far and a few have already played 20, but there are still 29 relievers that have appeared in ten or more games already, including four that have appeared in 11. At some point those workloads will come down, either through a manager’s decision or injury/ineffectiveness. Let’s look at a handful of guys that have been called into more than half their team’s games so far…

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Earlier this week, on the main FanGraphs blog,  we re-ran Pizza Cutter’s classic study (yes, I think it’s a legitimate classic), 525,600 minutes: how do you measure a player in a year.  In it, he demonstrated just how large of a sample size you really need before you can start drawing conclusions about a batter’s skills.  The answer was a lot more than I think most folks realize: you can get an idea of a hitter’s swing % and contact rate pretty quickly, but stats like OBP, SLG, and especially AVG (much less BABIP!) take 500 PA or more to provide much useful information.  While I think many fantasy managers understand the need for patience, I also see a tremendous emphasis placed on small samples when I read fantasy baseball advice–especially when it comes to players on hot and cold streaks.

Is there something special about a hot or cold streak that makes it different from a typical small sample of performance?  It seems like there could be, right?  Even if you can’t trust a normal sample of 20 PA’s, if someone is absolutely tearing the cover off the ball–or is striking out in virtually every PA–might that not mean that he’s likely to hit particularly well (or poorly) for the next few games?  After all, we see (or, at least, think we see) guys go through amazing hot streaks all the time when watching baseball, and players describe what it’s like: the game slows down, the ball looks bigger, etc.

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Chalk it up to small sample size. This column is off to a 2-for-2 start, with each edition having highlighted a minor leaguer who was called up to the bigs only days later. First Chris Davis two weeks ago, then Jerry Sands last week. Don’t expect Mining the Minors to maintain this type of perfection because, frankly, that would be impossible. In fact, the three players chosen in this installment, while certainly capable of making an impact at some point in 2011, will definitely not be doing so in the next few days. Even Jobu doesn’t have that kind of power.

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Today’s edition of Waiver Wire revolves around two “raw” outfielders and a reliever who’s made a slight change.

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Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 4.

A.J. Burnett – Despite being in the majors since 1999, Burnett has not thrown more than 39 games to any one catcher. He has 12 catchers who have caught at least 10 games of his in the majors. By far the worst of those was Jorge Posada, with whom Burnett had a 5.61 ERA. Russell Martin has caught all four starts by Burnett this year and he has a 3-0 record. Burnett’s ERA this year is an unimpressive 4.37 but he’s had some trouble with the gopher ball, as his xFIP checks in at 3.89. With two home starts this week, make sure Burnett is active.

Kyle Drabek – After opening the season with three straight strong starts, Drabek was knocked around (5.1 IP, 4 ER) in his last outing. This week he has road starts in Texas and New York, a tough go for anyone, much less a rookie. Drabek has a 5.63 BB/9 and has allowed 8 BB in his last 11 IP. The Rangers and Yankees are in the top four in the American League in runs scored and no pitcher can survive putting extra runners on base against those offenses. Move Drabek to the bench this week.

Matt Harrison – Shoulder injuries the past two seasons have kept Harrison from throwing many innings. A lack of success versus RHB has led to ERAs of 6.11 and 4.71, respectively, the past two years. But Harrison is healthy now and a new pitching approach has led to a very strong start. Last year, Harrison threw a slider 15 percent of the time and it was his worst offering, with a Pitch Type Value of -3.7, the worst of his four pitches. This year, he is throwing fewer sliders (8.5%) and more changeups (18%) and the results have been impressive. RHB have a .147/.238/.267 slash line in 86 PA this year. Last year RHB posted a .770 OPS against him. While his 1.88 ERA will undoubtedly go up, Harrison’s xFIP of 3.85 is nearly a run lower than his lifetime mark. Keep putting Harrison into your lineup.

Daniel Hudson – One of the early leaders in the biggest positive spread between his ERA (5.92) and his FIP (3.55), Hudson has been victimized this year by two things: a very low LOB% (53.0) and a high BB/9 (4.44). Last year Hudson had a 2.55 BB/9, so he is certainly capable of throwing more strikes. This week he squares off against the Phillies and Cubs, two teams that are below average in drawing walks. The Phillies are tied for 12th while the Cubs are 14th. Look for Hudson to break into the win column this week and keep him active.

Justin Masterson – Previously, Masterson has been a pitcher whose peripherals were much better than his actual results. But this year he has a 1.71 ERA and a 4.06 xFIP. His lifetime xFIP is 4.00 so Masterson is pitching like he normally does but is just having much better results. A .256 BABIP without allowing a HR helps explain the difference. Masterson’s early success is unlikely to last all season. He still is murder on RHB while he struggles versus LHB. He goes up against the Royals and Tigers, who can stack their lineup with lefties. Give Masterson the week off if you can.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 4 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lee, Weaver, Cain, G. Gonzalez, J. Garcia, Nolasco, Buchholz, Lowe, Lewis, Garza, Floyd, Arroyo, Kennedy, Britton, Zimmermann, Narveson, Davis, Norris, Dickey, Hochevar, Rogers, Coke, Colon, Bedard, Blackburn, Morton, Garland, Moseley, Humber, Russell.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 2 pitchers and how they fared.

Buehrle – Advised to start. 6 Ks, 2.40 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 4 ER, 15 IP
Correia – Advised to sit. 1 K, 6.00 ERA, 1.167 WHIP, 4 ER, 6 IP
Dempster – Advised to sit. W, 13 Ks, 7.15 ERA, 1.589 WHIP, 9 ER, 11.1 IP
McClellan – Advised to start. 2 W, 6 Ks, 1.39 ERA, 1.308 WHIP, 2 ER, 13 IP
Rogers – Advised to start. W, 2 Ks, 4.78 ERA, 1.941 WHIP, 3 ER, 5.2 IP

The first two or three weeks of the baseball season result in all sorts of funny numbers, especially in standard 5×5 categories. Some guys get off too ridiculously good starts and others slump, but knowing who’s for real and who isn’t is the key this early in the schedule. A pair of fantasy stalwarts and one trendy sleeper pick are off to painfully starts to the season, and now’s the time to cut your losses.

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Going into the season I noted just how shallow the shortstop position was. Behind Tulowitzki and Ramirez, the cupboard was barely stocked with anything useful.  Over the past two weeks we’ve seen some surprise players start to hit far above expectations and make a name for themselves. Is their success sustainable? Probably not in most cases, but in the fantasy world we ride hot streaks as far as we can. At the same time there have been more heralded shortstops who have struggled to get things going. For the first time this season lets take a look at the Risers and Fallers at shortstop

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