Nearly a month into the season, the time is nigh to update the RotoGraphs preseason ranks at each position. Some have already been done, in fact. We’ll be getting to AL Outfielder Ranks Version 2.0 next week, but to tide you over in the meantime, here are a pair of Alexes — one Riser and one Faller. Consider your appetite whetted.
Today, I am going to look at some players that are on the DL and being dropped at a high rate (all numbers are from ESPN).
Angel Pagan (oblique) – 51.0% owned, down 45.5% – Owners are dumping Pagan at a pretty alarming rate. Owners know they aren’t paying for power with him, they are hoping for a player that steals a few bases (4 in 2011) and hits for decent average. The average has been a disaster this year at 0.159, which is being fueled by his 0.164 BABIP. Normally his BABIP is around 0.300, so the batting average should improve substantially. He has been moved around the lineup quite a bit, mainly hitting in the 2nd, 5th or 6th spots. He will have chances to score and drive in a few runs. He is expected to be back from the DL after his 15 days are up on April 30th. He looks to be a perfect player for a team needing SB or AVG help.
This week in the national league outfield we’ve got two interesting players – one for shallow leagues and one for deeper leagues. Happy hunting.
Dexter Fowler (39% owned in Yahoo, 63.6% owned in ESPN)
Call this an appeal to the Yahoo owners who are on the fence about Fowler, because something about the ESPN game has made him more appealing already. ESPN projected Fowler to hit .275 with seven home runs and 27 steals, while Yahoo thought his 2011 would look more like .266 with five home runs and 25 steals. That might explain a little bit of the variance, and perhaps ESPN has more five-outfield rosters. In any case, Fowler is definitely ownable.
Today’s emphasis: versatility. There’s nothing better than a quality player eligible at multiple positions…
In today’s edition of Deep League Waiver Wire, we look at a second baseman who has fallen into playing time, a backup outfielder, and a third baseman that should probably already be owned in your league.
Beginning next week, and continuing the first Monday each month, we’ll be doing a fully updated version of the 2011 Catcher Rankings. We’ll go over the risers and the fallers and talk about who could be climbing up the rankings on a more permanent basis and who’s washing out. But while we’re heading into the first set of updates, we have a pretty big debate on our hands. Who’s the number one catcher out there? Does Joe Mauer’s slow start/DL stint/illness knock him out of the top spot? Has Brian McCann’s consistency helped move him up? Has Buster Posey proven himself enough to be the top fantasy backstop? And where does Victor Martinez fit in with all of this? These were the four names in the top tier. These were the four names, in order, from the top tier back before the season started. Now the question is whether or not that order has changed. Read the rest of this entry »
Ground ball rate is one of the three primary peripherals, or skills as I like to call them, that make up the trifecta (which also includes K/9 and BB/9) I look at first when evaluating a pitcher. Simply from my experience and without the benefit of specific research to back this up, it seems that a pitcher’s GB% is generally pretty consistent from year to year, and certainly more so than his strikeout and walk rates. The only real ways for a pitcher to increase his ground ball rate would be to alter his pitch mix, learn and start throwing a new pitch that induces grounders more frequently or consciously locate pitches lower in the strike zone than in past seasons. All of these methods are difficult and require a pitcher to start doing something differently than he had been doing previously. GB% stabilizes at about 150 batters faced, a level at which the top pitchers in the category have nearly reached. As a result, large increased in GB% should be taken seriously.
Here is the latest update to Week 4 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.
Pitchers not listed on last update:
F. Hernandez, Liriano, Young, Nova, Lannan, Maholm, Litsch
Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Dickey, Colon, Bedard, Blackburn
Of the new pitchers let’s look at Jesse Litsch. Earlier this season, Litsch got caught up in a numbers game and was sent to the minors because he had an available option while Jo-Jo Reyes did not. Litsch had been in three starts before the demotion and pitched well in two of them. He made just one appearance for Triple-A Las Vegas and was pulled after only three innings to make sure he was available to pitch early this week for Toronto.
Litsch is not overpowering but he throws at least five pitches, generally has good control and gets lots of ground ball outs. In his three appearances in the majors this year, he’s even fanned 16 in 17.1 IP, although he’s allowed more walks than he usually does. But with his ERA below his career average, and his FIP and xFIP both below his current ERA, it’s a tradeoff that has worked well for Litsch, assuming he can keep it up.
He’s throwing strikes early, with an F-Strike% of 60.5 percent, which is a career best. Also, Litsch is setting a personal record with a 10.7 SwStr%. He’s done this with a change in his pitching pattern. Litsch has almost completely abandoned his curve ball, throwing more sliders and change-ups, instead.
Litsch rejoins the Blue Jays in time to make road starts in Texas and New York. It’s not the ideal way to get back to the majors and it is hard to recommend putting him in your lineup this week. But Litsch is a pitcher to monitor going forward. Check his peripherals in these two starts and see if he’s still getting ground balls and strikeouts.
The Yankees and the Rangers rank 1-2 in the American League in runs per game. Therefore, Litsch could give up a lot of runs this week and still be a pitcher worth adding if he holds his spot in the rotation and pitches well in other regards.
Last week’s Sunday night look was Wandy Rodriguez. He had 14 IP, 5 ER, 13 H, 16 Ks and a 1-1 record with a QS.
Yesterday afternoon we got word that Neftali Feliz was placed on the disabled list with right shoulder inflammation, and it’s always scary when a young flamethrower has a shoulder injury. You can expect the Rangers to take their sweet time with Feliz’s rehab, making sure he’s fully healthy before activating him. They’d be stupid not to considering his long-term importance to the franchise. That opens the door for Darren Oliver, who grabbed the first save opportunity (and save) in the Neftali-less era last night.
It’s always tough to find power on the waiver wire. If your team doesn’t seem to be hitting home runs, it’s not as if you would expect to find 30+ home runs out on the wire. Fortunately, it’s still early in the season and there’s a chance to grab some power before other owners realize what’s out there. Pat Burrell and Hank Conger are two players that should help you out in the power department. Right now, both are available in many leagues.
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