Darren Oliver: Fantasy Closer Update
Yesterday afternoon we got word that Neftali Feliz was placed on the disabled list with right shoulder inflammation, and it’s always scary when a young flamethrower has a shoulder injury. You can expect the Rangers to take their sweet time with Feliz’s rehab, making sure he’s fully healthy before activating him. They’d be stupid not to considering his long-term importance to the franchise. That opens the door for Darren Oliver, who grabbed the first save opportunity (and save) in the Neftali-less era last night.
Unfortunately the matchups in yesterday’s game don’t tell us anything useful. With a well-rest bullpen, manager Ron Washington turned to Oliver with a two-run lead against the Royals. He struck out the first batter (lefty hitting Kila Ka’aihue) before retiring the relatively punchless (and right-handed) Matt Treanor and Alcides Escobar on a ground ball and a fly fall, respectively. If Oliver had been brought in to face two or three tough lefties, then we’d have to wonder if it was matchup based. If he faced two or three tough righties, then we’d feel slightly more confident about Oliver’s chances of keeping the job going forward.
Oliver’s been around forever and he is what he is. He’s whiffed close to a batter per inning over the last two seasons (4.82 K/9 in a SSS this year) and has consistently kept his WHIP’s sub-1.20, and he is also more than a traditional lefty specialist. Oliver has faced more right-handed batters than left-handed batters every year since 2002, and his platoon split isn’t huge (4.39 FIP vs. RHB, 3.92 vs, LHB). He’s got the “proven veteran” tag and he did a great job for Washington last year, two things we can’t discount when trying to figure out who will close in Feliz’s absence.
Until further notice, consider Oliver the ninth inning guy in Texas. He’s owned in just 12% of Yahoo! leagues and in 7.7% of ESPN leagues, and there’s surely someone on your roster you can sacrifice in the sake of saves. If Feliz’s injury ends up lingering longer than expected, expect Texas to scour the relief trade market. Heath Bell seems like a natural fit, but we’re getting way ahead of ourselves. Oliver’s the man right now, and that’s what matters.
Mike writes about the Yankees at River Ave. Blues and baseball in general at CBS Sports.
Love it! Thank you!
Now can we get some analysis on why Dice-K’s last two starts were so good? I want a full report by noon tomorrow… =D
I am not convinced that Washington is going to turn to Oliver in Feliz’s absence. Rhodes got a save today, albeit a one out save. O’day is pretty nasty against righties but has struggled a bit with command this season (tiny sample of course). The best pitcher in the pen not named Neftali has been Pedro Strop (again tiny sample).
I think it will be more of a committee based on matchups to start. I think Rhodes will end up with the majority of saves because he can get righties out better than Oliver and lefties better than O’day with Strop being a longshot.
I think what Broxton’s example and lots of closer examples tells us is: Don’t EVER pay for saves. It amazes me how many people will draft a closer in the first 8 or 10 rounds, and frankly, I just don’t get it. The amount of turn-over at the closer position is ridiculous. In one of my deep 12 team mixed 5X5 roto keeper leagues (28 roster spots), I drafted exactly ONE closer… In the 13th round. Joel Hanrahan. Many people thought I was nuts. Cries of, “the punk is punting on saves!” Now, if that were true, why would I have drafted ANY closer? For my HEALTH? No… Because less than 4 weeks into the season, I have a total of FOUR closers and the three I picked up only cost me 14 FAAB dollars out of a budget of $100 for the year. Jon Rauch, Matt Capps and Ryan Madson. Punting on saves? Hardly… But I refuse to waste unnecessary draft picks to get them when the probability of them getting replaced before season’s end is SO high. Instead, I was able to draft guys like Jay Bruce, Max Scherzer, Adam Dunn, etc. Much more limited risk on THEM becoming worthless or being removed from THEIR every day job.
Think about the number of closers who are currently closing RIGHT NOW that have maintained their closer role for the last 3 seasons… You know how many there are? I can count them on ONE HAND. Mariano Rivera, Brian Wilson, Heath Bell, Jonathan Pabelbon and Francisco Rodriguez. Yep. THAT’S IT! Everyone else has either been replaced at SOME point due to inconsistency or replaced because of a trade. I don’t know about anyone else, but unless you’re playing with house money, I’ll take ANY OTHER position player or starter in the first 10 rounds than I will make a bet that the closer I draft will remain closer throughout the year. NO THANKS.
P.S. I’m 4th in my league in Saves having drafted only ONE closer who no one has ever heard of. It’s early. But every Save counts in roto, and it will put me in better standing later in the season in case I need to trade for one.
Really? You posted this rant in multiple locations?