I’m in 6 different leagues this year and every league has a different set of rules, rosters, waiver restrictions, etc.  But the one common thread that ties and binds all things fantasy here is the moronic trade offers that get thrown around at this time of year.  Forget about sample size and statistical history.  Apparently those mean nothing to the trade hungry vultures just waiting to swoop down and pick off the carcass of stupidity. Read the rest of this entry »

Notes on three starters in the senior circuit to end your Wednesday, including a Mike Minor update!

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In last week’s article on 2B, I discussed briefly a method I use for ranking players by talent. This week I will show the method along and the rankings. I loosely based this method on the the Mayberry Method introduced in the 2010 Baseball Forecaster. The Mayberry Method looks at the player’s talent and expected playing time to give them a fantasy value. I stripped the analysis down further to just look at the player’s talent.

Here is the method that is used. The original Mayberry Method looked at a hitter’s projected AVG, HR, SB and PA and ranked each player according to a formula. To get the player’s hitting ability, I stripped plate appearances from the equation because a player has no control over plattoons, batting order and talent around them. Also plate appearances directly effect the number of Runs and RBI’s the player will generate in a season.

Besides stripping out PA, I didn’t want HR and AVG to be given the same weight as SB. I feel that HR and AVG should be weighted more as each contributes directly to RBIs and Runs. So I weighted AVG and HR twice that of SB. Next, I converted HRs and SBs into rate stats, HR/PA and SB/PA.

Finally I took the 5 categories and plugged them into our own Zach Sander’s formula for finding fantasy above replacement values. For the values, I went with a Wisdom of the Crowds approach and used a weighted average of 4 different projection systems.

After following the above method, here are the pre-season rankings I came up with:

When compared to the list that we put out at the beginning of the year, here are a couple interesting tidbits.

– Using this method for ranking players, Aaron Hill and Dan Uggla are nearly the same player, all HR, no SB or AVG. Uggla is being drafted about 70 spots earlier in the drafts compared to Hill, mainly based on increased opportunites to drive in and score runs.
– Eric Young, Jr. looks to be a fairly productive fantasy player based mainly entirely on his SB, but may not be given a chance to start since his teammate Jose Lopez is entrenched at 2B.

This method by itself should not be used to fully evaluate players in fantasy baseball because it doesn’t take into account playing time. Increased playing time allows a player to accumulate more of the 4 counting stats normally used for hitters. It is though a good method to find talented players not playing everyday and if they are given the opportunity to shine, they could out produce other players.

The season is all of a week old, not even when you consider that today’s games haven’t been played yet, but we’ve already had some movement on the closer front. Let’s take inventory of whose stock is on the rise, and whose is slipping…

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It’s a tough time of year to find fantasy gold on your waiver wire as your competition is picking through players just as intently as you.  But you might want to build your bench depth by taking a chance on some overlooked guys like a veteran infielder who has had batting average issues or a formerly hyped prospect who just needed a little extra time to break out. Read the rest of this entry »

So the 2011 season is underway and after pitching a whopping 1.1 innings, a closer has already lost his job. It must suck to be Fernando Rodney right about now. I could continue this rant about how sometimes managers seem to show such little understanding of the concept of sample size, but I have digressed enough. On to this week’s deep league waiver wire options for fantasy teams already fishing for some free agent bait.

Juan Miranda, ARI, 1B | 5% Owned

Despite only accumulating eight at-bats over the team’s first four games, manager Kirk Gibson reported today that Miranda will probably get most of the starts at first base early on this season. Of course, the emphasis should be on early. If Miranda is not hitting, the job will likely go to Russell Branyan, unless of course Brandon Allen is tearing it up at Triple-A, at which point he may get the call. Bottom line is if Miranda hits, he should see the majority of the playing time. Will he hit is the question though. In his minor league career, the 28-year old has shown solid power and an above average walk rate, while making acceptable contact. He has also shown a good propensity to hit fly balls, generally hitting them over 40% of the time. Unfortunately, according to his splits, he has typically had trouble with lefties, with the exception of his 2009 season when he posted an uncharacteristic .291/.371/.507 slash line. In addition, this same splits page shows some unimpressive MLEs, which gives us less reason for optimism. However, playing half his games in a ballpark that favors left-handed power (114 LHB HR park factor), and on a team likely going nowhere, the D-Backs should exercise plenty of patience with him. He won’t be making fantasy owners rush to the waiver wire to add him anytime soon, but Miranda could provide some cheap power.

Jayson Nix, TOR, 2B/3B | 2% Owned

Filling in temporarily while Jose Bautista takes a short leave of absence, Nix is expected to fill a utility role for his new team. With the ability to fill in at second and third base, and enough power to at least be considered to start at designated hitter if necessary, he should find enough at-bats to contribute in the counting stats. Nix’s biggest attributes are power (.172 and .184 ISO rates the last two seasons) and tons of fly balls (nearly 48% FB% last two seasons). Sounds like a perfect fit for the Jays, huh? Unfortunately, all those fly balls find gloves more often than the average hitter, keeping his career BABIP at an ugly .247. Nix has played in hitter’s parks most of his career, and he finds himself moving to one that inflates right-handed home runs by 16%, so he should continue to enjoy hitting at home. Though he only stole one base in three attempts last year, the 28-year old has shown better speed in the past, with 10 steals in 2009 and double digit totals during his minor league days. The extreme fly ball ways and low LD% means his batting average is going to be of no help, but the power should be enough to generate some value in AL-Only leagues.

We held what might perhaps be the first keeper auction experts league on the 31st. The results were epic.

At least, they felt that way after so many adult sodas, so many auctions.
So many broken dreams.

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The Rays may be 0-3 and off to the worst start in franchise history, but the biggest concern in the Tampa Bay area revolves around the health of Evan Longoria.

The All-Star third basemen has been put on the 15 day disabled list and will miss a minimum of three weeks. That loss presents a giant hole to fill for both a Rays lineup that already needed help scoring runs, and fantasy owners who grabbed Longoria in the early rounds of their drafts. The third base position isn’t particularly deep this season, so finding a suitable replacement may prove difficult. Lets take a look at a few possibilities…

Sean Rodriguez and Felipe Lopez

These two will be picking up the playing time in Tampa Bay with Longoria out. Rodriguez is owned in nearly 100 percent of ESPN leagues, so he’s not likely to be found on the waiver wire. However, if you have another player on your team that can handle second base or the outfield – Rodriguez’s two eligible positions – he could fill in nicely at the hot corner. One issue facing Rodriguez is the fact that he doesn’t yet qualify at third base. Give it a week or so and he should pick up the minimum amount of starts to qualify. We know what the 25-year-old brings to the table. He hits left handed pitching exceptionally well, and while he struggles a bit against right handed pitching his outstanding defense should allow him more starts against righties.

When Rodriguez is not in the lineup he’ll be replaced by recently recalled Felipe Lopez. A switch hitter, Lopez has better career numbers against righties, but over the last three seasons has hit .297/.350/.413 against southpaws. He already qualifies at third base, as well as second base and shortstop, and that versatility could prove very valuable over the next few weeks. Lopez had a substandard 2010 season, hitting .233/.311/.345 in 441 PA’s, but proved valuable in 2008 and 2009. Marcel projections a .270/.340/.389 line from Lopez this season, and he’s only owned in o.3% of ESPN leagues at the moment. Keep an eye on when he plays, but you could certainly do a lot worse in the shallow pool of third basemen.

Danny Valencia

It’s rare to find a starter at a shallow position owned in so few leagues (4.1% ESPN), especially one who enjoyed the half season that Danny Valencia did in 2010. In 322 PA’s the rookie put up an impressive line of .311/.351/.448 and even hit seven home runs. Expecting that same type of production is likely foolish, but Valencia is very capable of putting up an average in the .280-.290 range with ~15 home runs. The fact that he’s available in 96% of leagues is frankly shocking to me. You know how many third basemen hit .300 with 15+ home runs last season? Three. Valencia is capable of that. In fact, picking him up only as a replacement for Longoria may be a waste of his abilities. While he might not crack your starting lineup, he’s a very valuable player to stash away on your bench for the entire season.

Amidst all these early season bombs, head-scratching starts from ace pitchers, fantastic starts from what’s-their-names, platoon battles, and, ahem, an appendectomy – betwixt all the frenzy of the start of the season, we have the nuts and bolts issue of position eligibility to watch for. To try and make your life just a teensy bit easier this time of year, here are a few guys that are picking up eligibility in the very near future that might help plug a hole in your lineup.

Mike Aviles

He’s a second baseman in most formats, but is considered a second baseman and shortstop in Yahoo. However, in just about any format, he’s soon to become a third baseman, which could be a real boon for any of you stony CBS-ers and others with the corner infield slot to fill. In Yahoo, he’ll need 3 more starts or 7 more appearances at third. In ESPN, he will need 7 more appearances. In CBS he needs just 2 more games to qualify at 3b and CI.

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A lot can change just a few days into the season. Like the 4-0 Orioles suddenly becoming World Series favorites! But surprising starts, unforeseen injuries and unexpected roster-makers will mess with even the best laid plans. Let’s hit on all three below, in the form of AL outfielders.

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