Sporting a triangular scar on the back of his elbow, Edinson Volquez returned to a major league mound last July less than a year after he underwent Tommy John surgery. The righty once swapped from Texas to Cincinnati for Josh Hamilton went on to toss 62.2 regular-season frames, whiffing and walking scores of hitters while also inducing grounders like never before. Drafting Volquez carries risk — the 27-year-old’s innings will be watched, and control has never been his strong suit — but a modest drop in free passes mixed with stellar K and ground ball rates should make Volquez one of the better value picks on draft day.

Volquez’s post-surgery stuff was top-shelf. He got swinging strikes 13 percent of the time, best among starting pitchers throwing at least 60 innings and running circles around the 8.5 percent MLB average. According to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers.com, Volquez boasted excellent whiff rates with his fastball (averaging between 93-94 MPH), changeup and curveball:

Fastball: 9 Whiff% (5-6% MLB average)
Changeup: 24.4 Whiff% (12.6% MLB average)
Curveball: 11.8 Whiff% (11.6% MLB average)

Volquez also got plenty of earth scorchers: his ground ball rate was 53.9 percent, far above the 44.5 percent clip he managed in the majors prior to 2010. Compared to past years, Volquez threw more curveballs in place of changeups. That breaking ball was beaten into the ground often: Volquez had a 70 percent GB% with his curve (49% MLB average). His fastball (50.5 GB%, 42% MLB average) also helped him wage a ground assault, while his change was league average with a 50 GB%.

Considering that Great American Ballpark punishes fly ball pitchers, inflating home run production 20 percent for lefty hitters compared to a neutral stadium and 33 percent for righty batters, Volquez’s uptick in grounders is a positive. And the sample size is large enough that we can put some stock in the worm burning increase — changes in ground ball rate become reliable rather quickly, after about 150 batters faced (Volquez faced 275 last season). Also helping matters is a strong Cincy infield. Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips and Scott Rolen are quality defenders, and the rangy Paul Janish looks like the favorite for shortstop starts over Edgar Renteria.

Of course, Volquez’s return wasn’t all roses. Always control-challenged (his career MLB walk rate is near 4.7 per nine), Volquez issued over five free passes per nine innings pitched. He located just 39.7 percent of his pitches within the strike zone, third-lowest among starters with 60+ IP and well below the 46.5 percent MLB average. As TexasLeaguers.com shows, only Volquez’s curve got strikes at an above-average clip:

Fastball: 59.7 Strike% (60-64% MLB average)
Changeup: 59.5 Strike% (60-61% MLB average)
Curveball 58.8 Strike% (58% MLB average)

Volquez isn’t likely to take the bump in 2011 and start showing exquisite control. But it’s not uncommon for post-TJ pitchers to struggle locating their pitches initially as they try to regain proprioception (knowing where the body is in space) and then improve their control the further out they get from surgery. Volquez’s month-by-month splits paint the picture of a pitcher gradually improving his location:

July: 35.5 Zone%
August: 37.0 Zone%
September/October: 45.6 Zone%

For 2011, two of the three big projection systems predict a sub-four ERA for Volquez:

ZiPS: 108 IP, 9.6 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.66 ERA
PECOTA: 134 IP, 8.8 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 1 HR/9, 3.93 ERA
Oliver: 106 IP, 8.7 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 1 HR/9, 4.14 ERA

Drafting Edinson Volquez is a gamble. He’s going to walk people. And he’s not a sure bet to log a full starter’s workload, given that 2011 will be his first full year back from Tommy John and that the Reds have seven or eight legitimate rotation options. But he’s not going to cost a prime pick (MockDraftCentral has his ADP at #74 among starters and #262 overall), and he’s the sort of upside play who can be the difference between winning and losing a league title. Take a chance on Edinson — his punch outs and grounders will make you glad you did.

There’s a lot of pressure that comes with being a top prospect. For every prospect that makes an immediate impact on his team, there are a number of others that struggle for years before finally fulfilling their projections. Owners that remain patient with players in the latter group can pick up premium talent in the last rounds of a draft. Jose Tabata and Dexter Fowler are two players that fit that category this season. While both have shown some ability in the majors, both have a legitimate chance to establish themselves as solid fantasy options this season. What should owners expect from these potential breakout players?
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Chris Coghlan took the league by storm in 2009, posting a .372 wOBA and earning NL Rookie of the Year honors. Though his performance line was boosted by a rather high .365 BABIP, his skills were right in line with what he had been doing down on the farm. As such, expectations were high for a solid sophomore season, but unfortunately things did not pan out, as he finished with a disappointing .322 wOBA and his season ended prematurely after a knee injury.

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On Thursday, Eno gave us the National League Outfielder composite rankings, complete with good-to-bad movie title tiers which sparked more debate in the comments than the actual rankings did. Regardless of that fact, we all will face the need, at some stage in our respective drafts, for brand name quality at closeout prices. With that in mind, in the Step Brothers Tier (which turned out to be tier 5, irrespective of your cinematic opinions), there’s Logan Morrison, who ought to come fairly cheaply and could be awfully productive relative to his cost.

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Last week, we looked at hitters who are likely to be overrated by traditional fantasy rankings when playing in ottoneu leagues using FanGraphs Points (built on linear weights).  Today, we’ll look at the other side of the coin: which players will have better value in lwts leagues than in traditional leagues?

Based on what we found last week about overrated players (steals, mostly), this is what I expected to find as the typical profile of someone who would be underrated by traditional fantasy rankings:
1) slow, with no steals
2) low batting average
3) high OBP
4) maybe someone who hits lots of doubles, but relatively few home runs.

Essentially, we’re talking traditional “moneyball” here, right?

To test that idea,went back to my simple ranking system, which is based on FG Points but adjusted for replacement level (specific to ottoneu’s rules) at each position.  Here are the top 10, along with ESPN player rater rank:

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RotoGraphs Chat

While most fantasy owners fall in love with players who broke into the elite a year ago (like Carlos Gonzalez and Andrew McCutchen) or get carried away with unearthing the next didn’t-see-that-coming talent, the best way to find cheap value on draft day is to keep tabs on vets whose fantasy reps took a hit following a down year. Like these three NL leftfielders with power-hitting track records.

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Once you display a skill, you own it? That’s what the Braves and their fans are hoping applies to Nate McLouth this season. To say that last year was a disaster may actually be an understatement. A ghastly .283 wOBA from a hitter who was rather consistent over his three previous seasons was quite an unpleasant surprise. McLouth’s strikeout rate increased to the worst mark of his career, his isolated slugging percentage dove for the second straight year to a career low of .132 and his BABIP plunged to just .221.

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Aside from age, Andres Torres and Angel Pagan have much in common. Both are swift switch-hitters who impressed in brief big league playing time in 2009 and broke out while holding full-time gigs in 2010. Entering the 2011 season, the two are side-by-side in terms of outfielder ADP: according to MockDraftCentral, Torres is 56th among fly catchers, while Pagan is 57th. So, who’s the better bet on draft day?

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With our NL Outfielder rankings published today I thought I’d take a look at three speedsters who are in three distinctly different tiers.

Let’s start from the top and take a look at Shane Victorino. The Flyin Hawaiian’s 2010 campaign was a mixed bag. Yes his home runs, RBI, and stolen bases were improved over 2009, but his batting average, on base percentage, hits, and runs were way down. The increase in power and decrease average and OBP look to be caused by the spike in Victorino’s fly ball rate. In 2009 it was 33.2 percent while in 2010 it jumped to 37.6 percent. That lead to a dip in his line drive percentage – from 21.7 percent in 2009 to 17.4 percent last year. The more fly balls Victorino hits the more outs he’s going to generate. He’s not a power hitter, so while the increase in home runs is nice, his value lies in his ability to hit for average, score runs, and steal bases. His BABIP was also low last season (.273), but that too be tied to the increase of fly balls hit. The loss of Jayson Werth and Chase Utley’s injury concerns may have a negative impact on Victorino’s run totals – it’s going to be harder for him to get back to scoring 100 runs a season.  If Victorino can get back to slapping the ball around the field instead of popping it up for outs, he has a good chance of regaining fantasy value in the categories you rely on him most.

Next on our list are two players similar enough that I’m going to lump them together for the sake of this post, even though their skill sets are just different enough to separate them in our tiers. Michael Bourn and Nyjer Morgan derive their fantasy value entirely from their speed. If they didn’t steal 30+ bases a year there’s no way in the world they’d be owned in any league, ever. It just so happens that Bourn has stolen 61 and 52 bases over the past two seasons, making him an extremely valuable asset. He’s one of the few players who can win you an entire category for you in any given week. A strikeout rate under 20 percent would be a welcomed addition to Bourn’s game as it would get him on base to steal more, but that’s not likely to happen. As long as he keeps his ground ball rate in the high 50 percent range he’ll be able to use his speed to his advantage, keeping his average in a respectable range (career .263) in the process.

Nyjer Morgan is in a tier below Bourn because his stolen base totals aren’t quite as high and his behavioral issues are a concern. People may look at his .253 average last season and not think Morgan is worth much as a draft pick. A closer look reveals he was actually pretty unlucky last season, even though his BABIP was a respectable .304. It was no lower than .355 in his three seasons prior. Unlike Victorino, his batted ball rates were pretty much in line with his career norms so there isn’t a noticeable reason for the decline in BABIP. Fantasy owners can expect a regression upward, back to roughly .300 batting average this season. A .290-.300 hitter with 30+ steals isn’t easy to find. If Morgan can keep himself out of trouble he can be an asset in NL-only and deep mixed leagues.