Is there an elite experts dynasty league out there? One doesn’t immediately come to mind. And with ottoneu in the FanGraphs fold, it’s a perfect time to break new ground. So, in that vein, we are proud to announce the first annual FanGraphs Fantasy ottoneu Experts League. This 5×5 auction keeper will draft opening day and will surely test the wills and knowledge or our esteemed competitors.

Andy Behrens (Yahoo – Roto Arcade)
Michael Rathburn (RotoExperts)
Jeff Erickson / Peter Schoenke (RotoWire)
Andrew Fiorentino, (RotoWire)
Tim Heaney / Nicholas Minnix (KFFL)
Andy Andres (Tufts University)
Neil FitzGerald (BaseballHQ)
Tom Keppy (BaseballHQ)
James Quintong (ESPN)
Jack Moore (RotoHardball)
Eno Sarris (FanGraphs)
Chad Young (ottoneu)

We’ll be reporting in on this league periodically, and you’ll hear from our competitors, too. Wish your hometown heroes best, and give us your best advice in the comments!

Over the weekend the Chicago Cubs and Washington Nationals each did some house cleaning, dispelling themselves of  a couple of volatile and disgruntled players in Carlos Silva and Nyjer Morgan. The impact of these moves is minor in the world of fantasy, but will be felt nonetheless.

The Cubs released Silva on Sunday after one season with the team while still owing him $11.5 million dollars. It’s not hard to see why the Cubs chose to part ways with the pudgy starter. While his numbers weren’t awful in 113 innings last season – 4.22ERA/3.90 xFIP – Silva has a 5.87 ERA in 55 starts since he signed his big contract with the Mariners. He’s also gotten into a few dugout altercations, has never been in shape, and criticized the team publicly – and that was just this spring. There had been rumblings that the Cubs were trying to trade Silva, with the Yankees and Nationals reportedly scouting him, but no deal could be reached. Silva shouldn’t have been owned in mixed leagues, so his joblessness won’t be felt by many. The most interesting aspect of Silva’s departure is the man replacing him in the Cubs’ rotation.

Andrew Cashner has limited MLB experience, his 54.1 IP last season all being in relief. While he walked too many hitters (4.97 BB/9) in those 54 innings, his K/9 was a healthy 8.28 and ERA and xFIP of 4.80 and 4.40 were respectable for a rookie. Many publications believe Cashner’s best value would lie in being a power reliever, maybe even an eventual closer, but the contract that Carlos Marmol received this off season made that less of a reality. Instead, he’ll slide into the back of the Cubs’ rotation. The Marcel projection system has Cashner down for a 4.24 ERA and 4.25 FIP for 2011, but that is in 52 innings of relief work, so take that for what you will. He has a plus fastball that sits in the 92-94 range, a passable changeup, and a slider that gets strikeouts with the same frequency as his fastball. He’s mostly an NL only play for now, but possesses the tools and pedigree to have value in mixed league formats as well.

Unlike the Cubs, the Nationals were able to find a take for their malcontent, trading Nyjer Morgan to the Milwaukee Brewers for Cutter Dykstra and cash. Morgan had been in a battle this spring for playing time with Rick Ankiel, Jerry Hairston Jr,  Roger Bernadina, and Mike Morse among others. That battle is clearly over, and Bernadina has since been demoted. If Morgan hadn’t worn out his welcome with two suspensions last season, he certainly had this spring, telling reporters that he expected to be traded and that a change of scenery might be best for him. An extremely productive player as recently as 2009 – .307/.369 with 42 SB – he slipped a bit last season but still produced 34 steals.

If Morgan was unhappy with his playing time situation in Washington, he’s really going to hate it in Milwaukee. Carlos Gomez is the incumbent starter and has been assured by the manager and GM that the job is still his. Morgan will serve as a suitable 4th outfielder and pinch runner unless an injury occurs – effectively killing his fantasy value. Back in D.C. early signs point to Rick Ankiel and Jerry Hairston Jr sharing the centerfield duties, which isn’t encouraging for fantasy owners. For a team that is going nowhere this season it would seem like giving the younger Roger Bernadina and Mike Morse more playing time would be the smart way to go for the Nationals. You know exactly what you’re getting from Ankiel and Hairston, why not explore the talents of the younger (though Morse isn’t exactly a kid) players. The four outfielders would all be platoon players, which isn’t something fantasy owners like to see. The situation is a mess at the moment, and I’d recommend staying away until things get settled.

If you’re reading this, chances are you know all about Free Agent Acquisition Budgets (or FAAB). In short, it’s waiver wire alternative in which owners draw from their allotted budget to place weekly blind bids on players available in free agency. (A typical budget is set at $100 for the season.) This format has become increasingly popular in recent years and for good reason—it requires much more strategy than simple waiver claims based on a priority list.

For whatever reason, I’ve always felt that an owner’s approach to FAAB can be determined by, well, ice-cream eating habits.
Read the rest of this entry »

With most drafts done, owners will now be looking to the waiver wire to replace players demoted to the minors or on the disabled list. Here are a few guidelines I like to follow when looking to pick up available players.

Be ready for waiver wire bargains.

If there ever was a time of year to actively track the players being released by owners, it is the first couple weeks of the season. Owners will be trying to get daily production from every spot on their team and will be dropping talented players that start the season with limited playing time. Also, they might quickly lose patience with a player that is struggling in his first couple dozen at bats of the season. For example, over at Rotohardball.com, an owner is looking to pick up Mike Napoli who was dropped when another owner decided Anibal Sanchez was more valuable.

Always have a player on your team you are will to part with if an opportunity arises.

At all times, a player on each team needs to be expendable. I usually have this player be an extra outfielder on my bench or a middle reliever I am using to pad my pitching rate stats.

An owner may not specifically need the available player, but the new player could definitely be used in a trade to make a positional upgrade.

Using the above example with Napoli, the owner already has Posada, so a catcher is not really needed. They could use some help in the outfield though. Packaging Napoli and one of your current outfielders to a owner needing Napoli to get a better outfielder. Once the trade is done look over the waiver wire for the player you dropped for the trade. There is a decent chance the player is still available or if not, look for another player to flip.

Have an idea of your waiver wire position, but don’t let it dictate picking up players.

Every owner should be given a waiver wire position after they have finished their draft. What this position means is that if two owners are after the same player, the person highest on the waiver wire will get the player. This time of year, positioning can be important in case someone really valuable hits the waiver wire.

I really feel that unless you are in the first waiver wire position, feel free to pick up whoever you need. Don’t be afraid to go back to the bottom of the priority list. In most instances, I have found that I make it back to the top half of the priority list in just a few days as owners scramble to upgrade their team. If you do have a high position and don’t want to give it up, wait to see if the player passes trough waivers and then try to pick him up. By using this method, you will not lose your waiver wire position and hopefully get the player. Personally, I give up the position and get the player I need.

Well, there were a few strategies I use when dealing with the waiver wire and hopefully you can improve your team with them.

Most fantasy leagues allow owners a few DL spots and now it is time to begin to use those positions productively. For the past few weeks, several players were known to be injured for 2011 season (ex. Adam Wainwright), but they have not yet been placed on the official DL. In the last few days, teams have begun to officially place players on the DL and the list looks to expand a ton in the next few days as the regular season begins. Now is the time to exploit these extra roster spots. Here are a few suggestions for roster management as the DL list expands.

I will be looking at individual names as the DL expands later in the week.

Read the rest of this entry »

Spring Training position battles are starting to be settled and injuries are starting to have more of an impact on the regular season. Let’s look at a temporary closer and new everyday outfielder…

Read the rest of this entry »

This is my favorite pre-season post of the year. Nothing is more enjoyable than coming up with wacky, out on a limb predictions that just may come true. Of course, all of my bold predictions have some sort of statistical basis, so you won’t be seeing anything like “Juan Pierre hits 20 home runs”. After reading my list and nodding your head in agreement or ridiculing my crazy thoughts, feel free to share your own off the wall predictions in the comments section.

Read the rest of this entry »

For any league, it’s always a good idea to keep an eye on some of the backups behind the plate.  With the number of injuries that befall catchers each year, you never know where the next opportunity will reveal itself and enable you to grab a potentially decent bat for a traditionally weak position.  Nothing eye-popping here, but if you get the opportunity to squeeze out an extra 5 HR or 15 points in batting average from your backstop(s), you’re certainly going to be better off in the long run.  Here are a pair of guys you might want to keep on your radar this season… Read the rest of this entry »

On Friday, Diamondbacks manager Kirk Gibson announced that Russell Branyan has made the club’s Opening Day roster. Branyan’s ultimate role has yet to be determined — his own physical limitations, Juan Miranda‘s presence on the roster and Xavier Nady’s arm strength could affect his playing time — but if you’re looking for cheap pop, Branyan is your man.

Read the rest of this entry »

Punting saves is one of the most popular strategies promoted by some of the most read fantasy analysts in the business. Don’t feel comfortable completely ignoring the category? That’s ok, you can always pick up saves late in a draft or play the waiver wire. There’s so much turnover at the position that you are bound to find someone solid. At least, that’s what the analysts will tell you. The strategy has been driven into our heads so many times now, however, that there may actually be value in targeting closers relatively early in drafts.
Read the rest of this entry »