All this week, I’ll be looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some outfielders.

Carlos Beltran
Coming back from offseason knee trouble, Beltran showed some promise that could leave owners hopeful heading into 2011. With an extra offseason of rest, could Beltran actually return to his old self? A move out of center field could help the former star, and who knows if the new Mets’ management will do the right thing.
Crude 2011 Projection: .270/.360, 14 HR, 8 SB
Verdict: Cut. I’d rather have an outfielder without knee problems. Don’t buy into his name value.

Colby Rasmus
I was pretty high on Rasmus coming into the season, picking him up as a bench option in as many leagues as possible. If he wasn’t drafted, he was grabbed off the waiver wire early on thanks to a hot September. He slowed down, and Tony La Russa isn’t his biggest fan, but he still managed over 500 plate appearances for the second straight year.
Crude 2011 Projection: .270/.360, 25 HR, 15 SB
Verdict: Keep. Don’t trick yourself into thinking he’s a .300/30/30 guy, though. He never will be.

Drew Stubbs
Stubbs is a classic example of what most owners view as a replacement level fantasy player. He’s always on the waiver wire, usually owned by a few different teams, because he’s such a tantalizing talent. His counting stats are great, and I think he’s going to be a 30/30 guy at some point in his career. His strikeout rate is just plain ugly, so he’ll have to put some work in if he wants to become more of a complete player.
Crude 2011 Projection: .265/.340, 25 HR, 35 SB
Verdict: Keep. His power and speed combo is too good to ignore.

Jacoby Ellsbury
After being viewed as a heel by most Red Sox fans, Ellsbury could very well be in a different uniform when 2011 begins. After stealing 70 bases in 2009, Ellsbury followed it up with 7 steals this season. He still has a ton of speed, and could easily swipe 50+ bases again next season.
Crude 2011 Projection: .280/.330, 5 HR, 40 SB
Verdict: Cut. If you wanted Ellsbury this year, you had to take him in the second or third round. I’m not willing to pay that price again.

If you have an outfielder you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.

After he got off to a 9-1 start with a 0.88 ERA, I asked readers to predict Ubaldo Jimenez for the rest of the season.

Jimenez ended up with 10 W, 153 Ks, a 3.83 ERA and a 1.264 WHIP. We had two people who came up with pretty good predictions for Jimenez. They were:

Elgato7664: 11 W, 138 Ks, 3.78 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Toffer Peak 10 W, 130 Ks, 3.50 ERA, 1.28 WHIP

Vote in the comments for which one you think did better.

And I would be remiss if I did not mention that RoS ZiPS projected Jimenez for 11 wins and a 3.84 ERA, which was just about perfect. If only Jimenez had picked up a win instead of a no-decision on his last game of the year, when he pitched eight shutout innings, Dan Szymborski would have hit one out of the park.

All this week, I’ll be looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some outfielders.

Alex Rios
Rios surged early this year, and was one of the most added players. Unfortunately, but predictably, he slowed as the season wore one. A lot of this came down to a bad BABIP, as his power production was fairly consistent.
Crude 2011 Projection: .290/.340, 19 HR, 25 SB
Verdict: Keep. You got him for cheap last year, and he’s still worth far more than that.

Curtis Granderson
The extraordinary season that many predicted from Granderson was anything but. He still put up solid numbers across the board, and was a four win player, but most expected better. Will his second year in the pinstripes, his age 30 season, be any better?
Crude 2011 Projection: .260/.340, 27 HR, 16 SB
Verdict: Keep. His kind of all-around production is still hard to find.

Shane Victorino
A career year at age 29. Who would have guessed? However, some owners are skeptical, and afraid his batting average will never return to a level close to .300. Plus, you have to wonder if he can put up numbers close to his 2010 campaign.
Crude 2011 Projection: .280/.345, 15 HR, 28 SB
Verdict: Keep. You won’t be able to let him go and pay the same price for him, so he’s worth holding on to, even if he can’t repeat 2010.

Will Venable
Venable was able to be had for next to nothing this year, thanks to playing for the Padres and his low batting average. With added playing time, Venable turned in a solid fantasy performance this year. If he could cut back on the strikeouts, he could be an outstanding player.
Crude 2011 Projection: .250/.330, 15 HR, 25 SB
Verdict: Keep. If you paid more than a couple of bucks for him, you can cut him. Otherwise, he’s worth a roster spot.

Carlos Quentin
You didn’t think he could ever repeat 2008, did you? However, for a power hitter, his strikeout rate is pretty darn good. All he needs to do is stop pressing and hit some more line drives, and Quentin will be golden.
Crude 2011 Projection: .255/.350, 25 HR
Verdict: Cut. If he could hit 30+ homers again, I’d be willing to swallow his poor batting average.

If you have an outfielder you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.

Here are 10 fantasy hitters who really helped their teams in the month of September/October, without any position factor considered. Hitters 4-9 could probably be arranged in any order you like, although the top three hitters seem set.

10. Victor Martinez .330-7-25-17-0

These are great numbers for anyone and they are spectacular for a catcher. Martinez is a free agent following this season and it will be interesting to see how many years a club feels comfortable giving him. Fantasy-wise, he is likely to move up from last year’s 48 ADP on ESPN.

9. Jayson Werth .300-9-22-23-4

A free agent at the end of the year, Werth did everything in his power to become one of the top players available on the open market. The Phillies have top prospect Domonic Brown ready to step in for Werth but it will be strange to see him on another team next Spring.

8. Andrew McCutchen .324-4-16-22-5

Coming into the 2010 season, many fantasy players wondered if McCutchen could be a consistent HR threat. While he will never be confused as a bopper, he seems very capable of putting up a 20-HR, 40-SB season in 2011.

7. Chase Utley .306-5-24-21-7

After suffering a torn ligament in his thumb that required surgery, Utley came back quicker than many people expected. He missed just six weeks of action and after a couple of weeks to play himself back in shape, Utley responded with production that fantasy leaguers have come to expect. Now the question remains if he is still a first-round pick or if age and injury concerns drop him lower.

6. Carl Crawford .360-4-19-16-6

Another free agent, Crawford did everything fantasy owners hoped he would do and finished the year as one of the Top 10 fantasy hitters, again. The big question for fantasy players is if Crawford moves to a new team, will he get more SB chances? With an 82 percent success ratio last season, owners would love to see him get even more opportunities than the 57 he had in 2010.

5. Mike Aviles .333-6-14-20-7

In the final month of the season, Aviles hit 6 of his 8 HR and had 7 of his 14 SB for the season. After going undrafted in many 12-team mixed leagues this year, Aviles undoubtedly will be a hot target for fantasy league players in 2011.

4. Drew Stubbs .316-7-18-19-6

With the Reds making the playoffs, Stubbs will be introduced to the wider baseball audience for the first time. Fantasy league players are already aware of the just-turned 26-year-old, who saved his best for the final month of the season.

3. Shin-Soo Choo .340-7-27-19-7

How’s this for consistency – last year Choo had a .300-20-86-87-21 line and this year it was .300-22-90-81-22 line. The only problem with Choo is that he has a two-year obligation to the South Korea military hanging over his head. Choo will be representing his country in the upcoming Asian games and if South Korea wins the Gold Medal, he will likely have the requirement waved. But what if they don’t finish first and Choo goes through with his duty? Is there any chance he could return to be an MLB-quality hitter after sitting out two of his late-prime years?

2. Carlos Gonzalez .378-5-26-24-6

Without a doubt, Gonzalez is this year’s fantasy MVP. He had a preseason ADP of 131.1 according to ESPN but finished as the top-rated player in fantasy, with a $43 12-team mixed value, according to Last Player Picked. Gonzalez had a terrific final month of the year, but it wasn’t quite good enough to be the best.

1. Troy Tulowitzki .303-15-40-30-2

In the last three years, Tulowitzki has played 101, 151 and 122 games. No fantasy player questions his talent, but how soon are you ready to pull the trigger on a player who has missed roughly 1/3 of the season in two of the past three years? And should we be even a tiny bit worried about the new chain of command in regards to the baseballs at Coors Field? Tulowitzki had a 1.034 OPS at home this year and an .863 mark at home.

Honorable Mention – Albert Pujols, Mike Stanton, Corey Hart, Alex Rodriguez, Matt Holliday and Mark Ellis

All this week, I’ll be looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some shortstops.

Derek Jeter
The Captain was drafted pretty high this year, and his production was lacking. He’s going to be 37 next June, so this isn’t the time to own Jeter if you haven’t already.
Crude 2011 Projection: .275/.340, 10 HR, 15 SB
Verdict: Cut. He’s still worthy of a roster spot, but not at his keeper price.

Jimmy Rollins
Rollins is another aging shortstop who has had a bad year, but he’s not as old as Jeter. Rollins will be 32 by the time the 2011 season rolls around, so he’s not at the bottom of the hill quite yet. For the first time in his career, Rollins did not step to the plate at least 625 times due to injury. However, he walked more than he struck out for the first time in his career, and was only thrown out once on the basepaths.
Crude 2011 Projection: .260/.335, 12 HR, 25 SB
Verdict: Cut. His value will not equal his price.

Starlin Castro
While Castro was a solid performer in real life, his fantasy value was limited by his lack of counting stats. Castro did steal ten bags, but he did that in 18 tries. Plus, his average is going to be a product of his BABIP, which sat around .350 this year.
Crude 2011 Projection: .300/.355, 5 HR, 12 SB
Verdict: Keep. He’s got the ability to rack up counting stats at some point, and he won’t hurt you in the meantime.

Alcides Escobar
Escobar came into 2010 with huge expectations, and fulfilled none of them. But, for the most part, his lack of production wasn’t his fault. The Brewers didn’t give him many chances to run, and his BABIP was absurdly low.
Crude 2011 Projection: .280/.330, 5 HR, 20 SB
Verdict: Keep. If you reached for him based on upside, you should cut him. But, his market value should be fair enough.

Cliff Pennington
Pennington is a typical Billy Beane player. He keeps the strikeouts to a minimum, plays solid defense, and walks at an average rate. While I thought he’d be a valuable player in real life, I never suspected fantasy success so soon.
Crude 2011 Projection: .275/.350, 7 HR, 30 SB
Verdict: Keep. He’s been undervalued because of his average, which should change next season.

If you have a shortstop you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.

All this week, I’ll be looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some second basemen.

Dustin Pedroia
Odds are you drafted Pedroia in the second round, or maybe the third round if you got lucky. With a serious foot injury on everyone’s mind, owners may be forgetting the fantastic season Pedroia was having before he got hurt. How will his injury affect his next season? We really can’t say for sure, so he may end up being a gamble on draft day.
Crude 2011 Projection: .300/.385, 18 HR, 15 SB
Verdict: Keep. The foot may decrease his stolen bases, but he’s still a stud.

Martin Prado
If you look away from his counting stats, Prado’s numbers are almost identical to 2009. It doesn’t feel like it, but Prado is still young and just entering his peak. He’ll be playing in a good lineup next year, so he could score 100 runs again without breaking a sweat.
Crude 2011 Projection: .310/.355, 17 HR, 5 SB
Verdict: Keep. He should be plenty healthy by spring, so I’m not worried about him.

Ben Zobrist
Want to know just how good Zobrist was in 2009? Even in a down year, Zobrist was a three win player this year. Impressive. Zobrist stayed on rosters this year thanks to good counting stats, and shortstop eligibility. He won’t be SS eligible next year, so what do we make of him? Can he bounce back?
Crude 2011 Projection: .275/.390, 14 HR, 20 SB
Verdict: Keep. He’s an OBP stud, and that’ll help the rest of his numbers. Still a very good second baseman.

Gordon Beckham
He was a disappointment early, but a stellar July and August gave everyone hope. He caught the injury bug late this season, but he’ll be fine next year.
Crude 2011 Projection: .275/.340, 12 HR, 5 SB
Verdict: Cut. He’s got upside, but you can do better for what he’ll cost you.

Rickie Weeks
Weeks finally made good on the potential everyone saw early in his career. While he still hasn’t cut back on the strikeouts, his counting stats are ridiculous, making him one of the best players at his position.
Crude 2011 Projection: .265/.350, 26 HR, 13 SB
Verdict: Keep. The RBI’s and Runs he provides your team are tremendous.

Eric Young (Jr.)
EYJR is one of the fastest players in major league baseball, but the Rockies don’t seem to want to give him a chance.
Crude 2011 Projection: .265/.330, 0 HR, 15 SB
Verdict: Cut. I love me some EYJR, but the Rockies won’t let him play enough to make him worth owning.

If you have a second basemen you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.

All this week, I’ll be looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some third basemen.

Adrian Beltre
When it comes to Beltre, it may all depend on where he signs this offseason. Will he stay in a venue that fits his strengths? My guess is that after playing in Safeco, he won’t play in a pitcher’s park if he can help it. Also, can he perform without his next contract on the line?
Crude 2011 Projection: .280/.330, 25 HR
Verdict: Keep. While it’s not star level production, I’ll take that from my starting third baseman.

Mark Reynolds
Believe it or not, you can swallow a .200 average if you’re getting 35 homers. But, is that worth keeping?
Crude 2011 Projection: .230/.340, 30 HR
Verdict: Keep. It’s hard to deal with him, but the power is hard to come by.

Pedro Alvarez
His rookie year has been right in line with my expectations, but a hot September has me dreaming of so much more. He’s still young, and very raw, but the potential is enormous. Can he learn to control the stick with more precision during the offseason? My gut says yes.
Crude 2011 Projection: .265/.345, 24 HR
Verdict: Keep. An above-average 2011 goes down smooth with a great 2012.

Ian Stewart
2009 showed us Stewart’s power potential, while 2010 showed us his improved ability to hit for a decent batting average. If he can put it all together and continue to get a majority of the playing time against righties, he’ll have value.
Crude 2011 Projection: .260/.340, 20 HR, 5 SB
Verdict: Keep. See a pattern yet?

Chase Headley
Headley’s move back to third base proved to be a prudent move by the Padres, as he’s been close to a 5 win player this year. His stolen base numbers have been a big surprise, but his ability on the basepaths will be a key part of his value since he doesn’t hit for much power. He should be entering his peak shortly, so there is no better time than the present for Headley to improve.
Crude 2011 Projection: .275/.340, 15 HR, 13 SB
Verdict: Keep. Those numbers are pretty good for a guy who’ll slip in a lot of drafts.

Aramis Ramirez
Even after a horrendous start, Aramis somehow managed to end the season with a decent fantasy line. He still has a lot of problems to work out during this offseason, but he could be a nice option next year.
Crude 2011 Projection: .270/.330, 25 HR
Verdict: Cut. He won’t be worth what you have to pay to keep him, but don’t be afraid to snatch him back up in the draft.

If you have a third basemen you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.

All this week, I’ll be looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some first basemen.

Billy Butler
Butler continued to increase his walk rate while simultaneously cutting back on the K’s. The batting average is always there, but owners are still waiting for the power to come along. He’s only 24, so a power surge is still possible, but it’s probably going to take a slight adjustment in his swing, and that may not be worth the risk. Somewhere down the road, he has a 30 HR season or two in him, but how long are you willing to wait?
Crude 2011 Projection: .315/.395, 20 HR
Verdict: Keep. As long as he keeps churning out a high average, I’m willing to wait for more power.

Kendry Morales
Morales had a chance to duplicate his 2009 success until he snapped his leg like a twig. He’ll still be in his peak years when he returns, so the leg is likely the only thing to hold his value back.
Crude 2011 Projection: .285/.345, 28 HR
Verdict: Keep. If you got him in the fourth, he’s still worth it.

Matt LaPorta
It feels like I’ve been here before. You? For someone who’s supposed to be a great power hitter, LaPorta has a sub-.400 slugging percentage. The only good thing to come out of this year is his improved BB%, and a ton of MLB experience. He’s still only 25, so maybe he’s a late bloomer?
Crude 2011 Projection: .255/.320, 16 HR
Verdict: Cut. Not looking like a stud, may never even be average.

Justin Smoak
He disappointed early this season, but Smoak has been on fire since he was recalled. He’s kept the strikeouts to a reasonable level, is working walks and is still hitting for power. Sure, it’s a small sample, but I like what I’m seeing right now.
Crude 2011 Projection: .270/.360, 20 HR
Verdict: Keep. Too much potential to let him go.

Ike Davis
I’m not going to lie and say I saw this coming. Davis has been very good this year, and has gotten overlooked quite a bit. He has the Mets job going forward, and will be a big part in their rebuilding plan.
Crude 2011 Projection: .270/.365, 23 HR
Verdict: Keep. He may never be a superstar, but he’ll put up good numbers.

If you have a first basemen you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.

Not a whole lot went right for the Brewers in 2010, especially on the pitching side of things. Ryan Braun failed to hit at least 30 homers for the first time in his career, Prince Fielder continued a trend of being merely very good and not holy crap good in even-numbered years, and Trevor Hoffman was below replacement level despite soaking up close to 9% of the team’s payroll.

There was certainly some good, however. Rickie Weeks finally stayed healthy and put together a six-win season, Corey Hart rediscovered his power stroke, and an unheralded 2008 waiver claim by the name of Casey McGehee built upon his 2009 success (.367 wOBA) and emerged as an above-average player at the hot corner. His .346 wOBA was the most production Milwaukee got out of the position since Braun’s rookie season, before he moved to the outfield.

McGehee was a nice surprise for fantasy owners too, especially those who didn’t grab one of the position’s elite producers early in the draft (or Jose Bautista from the free agent pool). Here’s where his production ranked among all third baseman in the core fantasy categories this season…

AVG: .285 (6th)
OBP: .337 (10th)
SLG: .464 (8th)
HR: 23 (8th)
RBI: 104 (tied for 3rd)
R: 70 (13th)
SB: 1 (negligible)

It’s rock solid production, better overall than guys like Mark Reynolds, Mike Young, and Aramis Ramirez, all of whom were drafted much higher than McGehee on average yet had down seasons for whatever reason. At 28-years-old (well, he will be next week) and basically the prime of his career, is this the kind of performance we can expect out of McGehee going forward?

The power numbers didn’t come out of nowhere. McGehee hit double digit homers in four of his five full minor league seasons, then swatted 16 in just 394 plate appearances in 2009. Hit Tracker considers 14 of his 23 homer this year to be “Just Enoughs,” meaning they cleared the fence by less than ten vertical feet or landed less than one fence height beyond the wall. It’s the second highest total of Just Enoughs in the NL (and MLB) behind Adrian Gonzalez (who has extreme ballpark issues), and as you can imagine those are the most volatile homers on a year-to-year basis given the margin of error. That’s not to say that McGehee is due for a huge homerun drop-off next season, but we can’t just brush it under the rug.

McGehee also took advantage of southpaws in 2010, tagging them for a .399 wOBA (158 PA) compared to just .327 against righties (452 PA). It’s a small sample, but enough of one to boost his overall production. He also raked at home (.375 wOBA vs. .316), so there’s two significant splits that should raise some eyebrows. Is the output against lefties just small sample size noise? Miller Park is generally neutral, perhaps favoring pitchers a bit, so why such the large gap? McGehee doesn’t have enough of a track record to know if this is sustainable production, or if it’s just an outlier.

That said, he’s still a solid third base option, perhaps as high as eighth or ninth on most draft boards. Weeks, Braun, and Fielder will get on base enough in front of him to create RBI opportunities, and he hits enough line drives and ground balls to keep his average in an acceptable range. We don’t know all that much about him after a season-and-a-half, but McGehee’s 2010 season is unlikely to be a complete fluke that fools us all, yet there’s definitely a little risk going forward. Probably not enough to consider passing on him in the double digit rounds, especially if you whiffed on a high end third baseman early.

All this week, I’ll be looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at four catchers.

Matt Wieters
Wieters is one of the most common keepers that owners are on the fence about, and that’s no surprise. Unless you expected a catcher to have a .350+ BABIP for the rest of his career, his 2010 numbers aren’t that much of a shock. Wieters improved in a lot of categories (BB%, K%, SwStr%, Contact%), but saw a drop in his line drive rate forcing his BABIP to trend lower.
Crude 2011 Projection: .270/.345, 14 HR
Verdict: Cut. He’ll probably fall in drafts, so you’re better off waiting for him.

Geovany Soto
This one’s pretty simple, at least in my eyes. All of Soto’s problems stem from Sweet Lou and playing time, and he’s already gone. Plus, even with reduced PT, Soto was one of the best catchers this year.
Crude 2011 Projection: .280/.380, 20 HR
Verdict: Keep.

Ryan Doumit
A constant frustration thanks to his injury problems, Doumit may not be quite the same risk heading into next season. With the Pirates starting to give him time in the outfield, some of the injury worries should melt away. I wouldn’t expect much more than 450 plate appearances, but that’s a number you can live with.
Crude 2011 Projection: .265/.345, 15 HR
Verdict: Cut. If you can, forget about his 2008 season as soon as possible.

Carlos Santana
Before the horrendous collision with Ryan Kalish, Santana was an automatic keeper going into 2011. He’s shown good power, fantastic patience, and a good stroke at the plate. Heck, he even stole a few bases. Knee injuries and catchers are scary stuff, so you need to be extra cautious with this one.
Crude 2011 Projection: .275/.400, 12 HR
Verdict: Keep. As long as you don’t have to pay too high a price, he’s worth the risk.

Tyler Flowers
Once considered the White Sox obvious catcher of the future, his fate is not so clear now. Chicago will have a vacancy to fill, but will they hand it over to Flowers?
Crude 2011 Projection: .225/.300, 10 HR
Verdict: Cut. I don’t think he’ll ever hit for a high enough average to justify keeping him.

JP Arencibia
After his spectacular debut, JPA didn’t do much in the limited playing time the Blue Jays gave him. He can still mash, and it should be his job to lose coming into spring.
Crude 2011 Projection: .245/.295, 15 HR
Verdict: Keep. He has too much power to send him packing.

If you have a catcher you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.