It may seem like I’ve been writing about Mike Aviles forever. Two years ago, I compared him to Kevin Maas during Aviles’ rookie year and recommended that people pass on him in 2009 drafts (and, as an aside, I predicted that year that Matt LaPorta may struggle a little more than expected, but the jury should remain out on the Indians slugger). In the preseason this year, I talked him up as a possible starter on that Royal middle infield, and then about six weeks ago, I pointed at him during his great September (.357/.379/.612). If you picked him up after that waiver wire piece, you enjoyed two of his eight home runs and six of his 14 stolen bases, so kudos. You might say Aviles has been better to me than could be expected of a mediocre second baseman.

Hold that though. Is he actually mediocre? User Bas made some interesting points in his favor in the comments section of the Second Base Keeper Rankings. The most important thing he noticed was that Aviles’ flyball rate has slowly been inching forward, incrementally up from 33.4% in his rookie year to 37.9% this last year. That certainly helped his ISO move back from .055 in his lost year to .108 in 2010, but even this new number is sub-par (average is .150ish). Can we faithcast him for more power next year if that flyball rate continues to move?

Maybe. His minor league ISO was .166, so he could put up average power in the major leagues. And getting more balls in the air helps the slugging percentage for sure. But let’s be careful before we pencil him in for more than 15 home runs. Let’s say he gets 500 plate appearances next year, hits 40% of his balls in the air, and returns to his 8% HR/FB while keeping his plate discipline ratios similar. Then he nets 13 home runs. 600 plate appearances? 15 home runs. There are your upper bounds when it comes to a home run total.

Of course, he has some speed. Look at his career four-score speed score, though, and you’ll see it’s more ‘above-average’ than ‘speedster’ kind of speed – Aviles has a 5.6 speed score and 5.0 is average. (Chris Getz, for example, has a career 6.6 speed score). Also, Aviles has never stolen more than 14 bases in a season. Let’s call his upper bounds 15 stolen bases then?

So Aviles has the upside of a .300-hitting, 15/15 second baseman – his 13 games at shortstop this year may or may not qualify him there in your league, and that makes a difference in terms of positional value. But Aviles will also be 30 going into the season, and on a (perpetually?) rebuilding team that owns the aforementioned 27-year-old Getz at his position as well. Getz is a better fielder at his position (-0.1 career UZR/150 to Aviles’ -4.9 career UZR/150) and walks more (7.3% to Aviles’ 4.1% career), so this is no open-and-shut case. The downside is that the team makes it an open competition in the spring and Aviles finds himself as the super-utility guy. That makes him hard to keep, but an interesting late-round draft pick in deep league re-stocking drafts.

Raise your hand if Howie Kendrick is one the most frustrating players you’ve ever owned. Yeah, I feel your pain.

When Kendrick was coming through the Angels system, and finally making it to the big leagues in 2007, a common thought was that he’d win a batting title some day. And while he still could, he hasn’t gotten around to it yet and the possibility of him winning one in the future is looking grim.

Throughout his career, Kendrick has been a league average hitter, thanks to his .327 OBP leading him to a 101 wRC+. Because he doesn’t have much in the way of power (his SLG is usually close to league average), and doesn’t like to take many walks, Kendrick’s real life value is going to center around his glove and his batting average.

Kendrick’s made improvements to his contact skills each and every year since 2007, raising his contact% and improving his whiff rate. Unfortunately, his whiff rate hasn’t been the only thing declining, as his BABIP has steadily gone down since ‘07.

In any given year, you need to hit around .360 to win the batting title. Factoring in Kendrick’s playing time, it means that he’ll need upward of 215 hits to push himself into the lead. Then, factoring in his home run and strikeout rates, we can see that Kendrick will need a BABIP around the .440 mark to win the batting title. This is why batters who can hit for power will have an advantage when it comes to the batting crown, because they get an extra 30+ hits every year, allowing their BABIP to be lower.

Should we ever count on Kendrick having a BABIP that high? Of course not, and we should never project that number for anyone, but it happens. All he can do is put himself in the best position to reach base, by limiting his strikeouts and hitting liners.

The odds are against Kendrick becoming the batting champ, but then again, that’s usually the case. I’d bet he delivers a couple more .300 seasons, and eventually lucks into a batting title at some point. But, a .290/12/12 line isn’t bad for a fantasy second baseman who still has some upside.

During the Keeper Conundrum series, I got some nice suggestions in the comments. Today, I finish of the series by continuing to look at some of your ideas.

Ervin Santana
While he still hasn’t lived up to his 2008 break out, and likely never will, Santana has had a solid fantasy season. But, his periperals weren’t that far off from last season’s, leaving him with yet another regression year.
Crude 2011 Projection: 205 IP, 4.00 ERA, 7.2 K/9, 2.7 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. I can guarantee you didn’t pay anything for him, so keep him on your roster next season.

Edwin Jackson
The addition of cutter upon arriving to Chicago made Jackson a second-half stud. Even though he’s been around the block, he’ll still only be 27 next year. If Jackson can continue his second-half surge, he’ll be one of the top pitchers in all of fantasy baseball next year.
Crude 2011 Projection: 210 IP, 3.70 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 3.0 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. He’s going to be solid next year, and I want a piece of that action.

Brian Matusz
Matusz has always been in my doghouse, thanks to his extreme fly ball tendencies. But, he did pitch extremely well in the last two months of the year, with xFIP’s around 4.00. I’m hoping he can take a step in the right direction next year, but I’m not going to bet much on it.
Crude 2011 Projection: 190 IP, 4.00 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 3.0 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. He’s very young, and pretty raw, and I want to see if he can keep performing at the level he showed late this year.

Andrew Bailey
His injury throws his status up in the air, but he did well upon his return. We only have a 132 inning sample, so we don’t know how high his BABIP should really be.
Crude 2011 Projection: 55 IP, 2.25 ERA, 8.2 K/9, 2.1 BB/9
Verdict: Cut. He’s probably in line for some progression, and we don’t know if the A’s are going to be any good next year.

Thanks for all the suggestions this week, hope this helped you in some way.

These rankings could function as end-of-year rankings, but with a twist. Young players on the way up get a bonus, especially since many keeper leagues allow you to keep young players as long as you like without penalty. Older, more filler players don’t get listed because you can find them next year in the late rounds of your re-stocking draft anyway. These rankings are also for regular 5×5 roto, despite the fact that we’ve got wOBAs listed. It’s just an extra piece of information, right? The age listed is their age going into the 2011 season.

The Top Targets:
Robinson Cano, New York AL (28 yrs old, .326 BA, 29 HR, 103 R, 109 RBI, 3 SB, .389 wOBA)
Chase Utley, Philadelphia (32 yrs old, .275 BA, 16 HR, 75 R, 65 RBI, 13 SB, .373 wOBA)
Dustin Pedroia, Boston (27 yrs old, .288 BA, 12 HR, 53 R, 41 RBI, 9 SB, .377 wOBA)
Ian Kinsler, Texas (28 yrs old, .286 BA, 9 HR, 73 R, 45 RBI, 15 SB, .357 wOBA)

This feels right as the first group, but where does Utley belong? He’s the oldest of the crew, and loves getting hit by pitches. He averaged 25 per year from 2007-2009 (18 last year), and each of those is akin to a round of Russian Roulette these days. Then again, he’s hurt his hip and his thumb on the base paths, so maybe each of those stolen bases is really the cause for worry. In any case, the two guys behind him prove that it doesn’t take being old to have injury problems, so we’ll go with the upside here. Do you want to penalize Kinsler for being injury-prone? He’s averaged 124 games per season in his career, so we’ll put him last, but he’s also averaged 18 home runs and 21 home runs per season even in those few games, so we’ll keep him here.

Strong Secondary Options
Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati (29 yrs old, .275 BA, 18 HR, 100 R, 59 RBI, 16 SB, .332 wOBA)
Dan Uggla, Florida (31 yrs old, .287 BA, 33 HR, 100 R, 105 RBI, 4 SB, .381 wOBA)
Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee (28 yrs old, .269 BA, 29 HR, 112 R, 83 RBI, 11 SB, .368 wOBA)
Kelly Johnson, Arizona (29 yrs old, .284 BA, 26 HR, 93 R, 71 RBI, 13 SB, .377 wOBA)
Martin Prado, Atlanta (27 yrs old, .307 BA, 15 HR, 100 R, 66 RBI, 5 SB, .352 wOBA)

Phillips and Uggla feel like old men, but they aren’t that old yet. Uggla shouldn’t see the same batting average, and Phillips’ ISO has been dropping for four years – so some sort of decline is in order, just not a precipitous one, hopefully. Weeks is risky because of the injuries, of course, and Johnson slugs so much better in Arizona that there’s some risk there too. Prado doesn’t seem as risky, but also doesn’t have the same upside in counting stats. It’s a good strong group though, and there’s little shame keeping these guys in mixed leagues where you keep more than five keepers.

Riskier But Young-ish, Best as Deep Dynasty League Options
Neil Walker, Pittsburgh (25 yrs old, .296 BA, 12 HR, 57 R, 66 RBI, 2 SB, .351 wOBA)
Aaron Hill, Toronto (29 yrs old, .205 BA, 26 HR, 70 R, 68 RBI, 2 SB, .291 wOBA)
Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (29 yrs old, .238 BA, 10 HR, 77 R, 75 RBI, 24 SB, .323 wOBA)

Now we’re in a group that shouldn’t really be kept unless you are in a deeper league or a near-dynasty situation. None of the first two guys is really well-balanced – but that also means deeper league owners could use them to plug certain holes. They’re all solid keepers for teams that need a little power boost and can afford some batting average risk. Edit: Zobrist was a cut and paste I forgot to paste back in because I wasn’t sure where to put him. I think his 2009 still provides enough upside to consider him here, but if the power doesn’t return, he doesn’t seem to have elite speed, and he could really belong in the bottom group.

Veterans Better Drafted Late For Bounceback Than Kept
Brian Roberts, Baltimore (33 yrs old, 4 HR, 28 R, 15 RBI, 12 SB, .340 wOBA)
Chone Figgins, Seattle (33 yrs old, 1 HR, 62 R, 35 RBI, 42 SB, .302 wOBA)

I mean, you could keep these guys, but they’d be easy pickings at the draft next year as well. Both are young enough and have long enough track records that they could easily bounce back next year and provide good value on their return. And, on leagues that are deep enough or keep enough players, they could also work as final keepers. Second baseman that steal 30 bases don’t grow on trees. If you’re wondering why other veterans didn’t make this list, it’s because they don’t have the same upside. I mean, yes, Mike Aviles had a great end to the season, but he’s 30, doesn’t have much power, and only about average speed. Not to mention the team has a younger option at the position that was hurt while Aviles went off.

Only Worth Keeping in the Deepest of Leagues Because They are Younger and Could Get Better, Maybe
Gordon Beckham, Chicago AL (24 years old, .252 BA, 9 HR, 58 R, 49 RBI, 4 SB, .305 wOBA)
Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles AL (27 yrs old, .279 BA, 10 HR, 67 R, 75 RBI, 14 SB, .317 wOBA)
Danny Espinosa, Washington (23 yrs old, .214 BA, 6 HR, 16 R, 15 RBI, 0 SB, .301 wOBA)
Eric Young, Jr., Colorado (25 yrs old, .244 BA, 0 HR, 26 R, 8 RBI, 17 SB, .281 wOBA)
Sean Rodriguez, Tampa Bay (25 yrs old, .251 BA, 9 HR, 53 R, 40 RBI, 13 SB, .316 wOBA)

This is the bargain bin. Beckham almost made it north with Zobrist, but what he’s shown was not as impressive as the season Zobrist showed, so we’re not sure what upside we’re really chasing. Kendrick probably won’t get much better, but if the team gets better around him and he has some BABIP luck, he could be a younger, slightly more powerful version of Placido Polanco, right? Though Espinosa came up and hit some home runs right away, his power in the minor leagues wasn’t more middling than impressive (.185 ISO), and it’s a little bit more about speed (25 SBs, 69% success rate) with him. He’s a decent sleeper for next year even with the slight batting average risk (25.7% strikeout rate). Eric the younger? Well, he’s got blazing speed and could be a deep league boon if he wins the job next year – the risk is obvious though.

During the Keeper Conundrum series, I got some nice suggestions in the comments. Today, I continue my look at some of your ideas.

Travis Snider
Snider made some nice strides on the field this year, but he had a hard time staying in the lineup. He improved his contact rate, started to hit lots of liners, and still showed us that he can hit for power. He’s really young (will be 23 next season), and I think he’ll continue to get better next year.
Crude 2011 Projection: .265/.335, 24 HR
Verdict: Keep. I don’t know if he plays a full season, but I’m not banking on it. He’s a nice risk to take, and a good piece to keep in your possession.

Jay Bruce
I thought he was going to hit 30+ homers this season, as did most people, and his ADP reflected that. He ended up doing pretty well for himself, and a big August and September will drive his value up once again. He has the potential to consistently hit 30 bombs, but please remember that he’s only 23 at the moment.
Crude 2011 Projection: .275/.365, 30 HR
Verdict: Keep. He’s only a year or two from putting it all together and getting picked in the third or fourth round.

Desmond Jennings
Everyone thinks that he’ll be handed the LF job once Crawford signs elsewhere this winter, and there’s no reason to think otherwise. His value comes down to how you think he’ll adjust to major league pitching, because we know he can run if he just reaches base.
Crude 2011 Projection: .270/.340, 5 HR, 30 SB
Verdict: Keep. Personally, I don’t like keeping guys just for steals, but I’m not going to let my prejudice tell dictate my response here.

Andre Ethier
The Dodgers outfielder started out hot, but had some injury troubles and cooled off later in the year. He still ended the year with over 20 bombs, a good average and respectable counting stats. He’s right in the middle of his peak, so now’s the time to own him.
Crude 2011 Projection: .290/.365, 28 HR, 5 SB
Verdict: Keep. Odds are that you got him in the seventh round, and that price is right. It’s no bargain, but you’re not overpaying.

Thanks for all the suggestions this week, and check back tomorrow for part three of your requests.

During the Keeper Conundrum series, I got some nice suggestions in the comments. Today through Wednesday, I’ll be looking into the better suggestions I received.

Chris Iannetta
I was going to include Iannetta in my original catcher’s article, but I have no idea what is going on in Colorado, so I can’t comment much on his situation. My projection will assume he’s the everyday catcher, so I’ll let you worry about his PT.
Crude 2011 Projection: .265/.380, 22 HR
Verdict: Keep. If you have him for a dollar or two, he’s worth having around.

Mitch Moreland
Moreland has flashed power at a couple of minor league levels, and did very well during his limited stint in the bigs. Moreland’s biggest problem was his strikeout rate, and I expect that to dip a couple of percent next year.
Crude 2011 Projection: .270/.370, 25 HR
Verdict: Keep. He’s going to be really cheap next year, and probably even 2012.

Neil Walker
Walker has been a nice surprise for the Pirates, as the former disappointment has given them reason for hope. He continued to show that he can hit for a little power, and a .340 BABIP helped to fuel a high batting average. He’s not a good defender, but the Pirates are going to keep the switch-hitter in the lineup every day.
Crude 2011 Projection: .285/.335, 15 HR, 5 SB
Verdict: Keep. He’ll be starting in standard leagues next year, and he shouldn’t have cost you more than a Buc or two (see what I did there?).

Pablo Sandoval
Sandoval’s decline was mostly BABIP related, as the rest of his numbers stayed fairly consistent. However, his power production took a big hit, dropping back down to the level I expected in 2009. He’s very young, but he needs to do some serious work this offseason, and I’m willing to bet the Giants will be pushing him hard to improve his physical condition.
Crude 2011 Projection: .280/.330, 17 HR
Verdict: Cut. He’s a good candidate to pick back up in drafts at a lower cost, but not worth keeping.

Michael Young
Call him what you will, but don’t you dare call him inconsistent. Despite his age, Young was able to produce at a decently high level. He hit you more than twenty dingers, and kept his batting average at a helpful level. He’s wasn’t great in OBP or OPS leagues, but that’s another story for another day.
Crude 2011 Projection: .280/.335, 19 HR
Verdict: Cut. Let someone else pay for a player on the decline.

Thanks for all the suggestions this week, and check back tomorrow for part two of your requests.

All this week, I’ve been looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some relief pitchers.

David Aardsma
Everyone expected Aardsma to regress this year, and his ADP reflected it. While he did do some regressing, he still has quite a bit in front of him. He gave up less fly balls this year, yet his BABIP dropped even lower. He still saved owners 31 games, but he didn’t even come close to touching last year’s value.
Crude 2011 Projection: 3.60 ERA, 5 saves, 8.5 K/9, 4.3 BB/9
Verdict: Cut. The reduced number of saves is because I think he’ll be traded by the Mariners shortly after the offseason begins.

Matt Capps
The Nationals made a great decision this offseason, bringing Matt Capps in to be their closer. They ended up getting a solid prospect for him, and the Twins will be relying on him during this postseason. With Joe Nathan coming back, will the Twins send Capps packing, or will they keep him as insurance?
Crude 2011 Projection: 2.85 ERA, 10 saves, 7.5 K/9, 2.1 BB/9
Verdict: Cut. While he’s a good pitcher, he’s not guarenteed to get saves next year. Play a wait and see approach with all of the Twins’ relievers.

Jonathan Broxton
Broxton was completely dominant during the first half of the year. He didn’t give up an earned run in April, and had a FIP of 0.19 during that month. 0.19! Something happened in the second half, though, and Broxton began to walk too many batters. The Dodgers lost all confidence in him, and he lost his job as the closer.
Crude 2011 Projection: 2.75 ERA, 30 saves, 11.3 K/9, 3.5 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. I don’t think he’ll slip in drafts, and he should be an elite player next season.

Daniel Bard
Bard didn’t pitch quite as well as expected, but he still did pretty well for himself. His value will all come down to Papelbon. Will he stay or will he go?
Crude 2011 Projection: 2.60 ERA, 27 saves, 9.0 K/9, 3.2 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. I think Papelbon gets traded, but the Red Sox bring in a veteran or two to keep Bard on his toes.

Drew Storen
As soon as he was drafted, Storen was labeled the Nationals “closer of the future.” The Nationals had him put his work in for the minor league affiliates, and then gave him some chances once Matt Capps was traded. With a full season in the organization under his belt, will the Nationals turn over the ball to Storen in the ninth inning?
Crude 2011 Projection: 3.33 ERA, 20 saves, 9.0 K/9, 3.5 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. Like Bard, I think he becomes the closer but loses some opps to a veteran presence.

If you have a relief pitcher you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.

All this week, I’ve been looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some starting pitchers.

James Shields
If you listen to xFIP, this was James Shields best season. If you ask ERA, or a majority of fans, this was his worst season. His strikeout rate was much better than his past two seasons, but it doesn’t look like he did anything to deserve it. He got smacked around this year, and even the great R.J. Anderson couldn’t really figure out why.
Crude 2011 Projection: 210 IP, 4.15 ERA, 7.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9
Verdict: Cut. He’ll be undervalued next year, so prey on other owners and draft him a couple rounds later than he should go.

Josh Beckett
For all the crap the mass media and Red Sox fans are giving him, Beckett wasn’t all that bad this year. He ended with an xFIP of 4.01 in less than 130 innings. However, he did have the worst whiff rate of his career, and his worst season throwing first pitch strikes.
Crude 2011 Projection: 160 IP, 4.10 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 2.9 BB/9
Verdict: Cut. 160 innings isn’t worth the price you have to pay. Draft him, but don’t keep him.

Ricky Romero
I was giddy when Romero was pitching well early on, but he struggled in the second half. For the last three months, Romero failed to post a K/BB over 2, but kept his xFIP around 4.00. He was still a four win pitcher this year, and his 55% ground ball rate is great. Pitching in the AL East didn’t help things, either, and I’m willing to bet he wins 17 games in most divisions.
Crude 2011 Projection: 200 IP, 3.75 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 3.3 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. Odds are you got him off the waiver wire, and he’s worth that price.

Brett Cecil
Cecil had a nice April and May, but didn’t get much hype. The lefty doesn’t do anything special, and he’s a slight above-average pitcher. It was good to see him walk less batters, and his SwStr% was improved by a percentage points.
Crude 2011 Projection: 190 IP, 4.00 ERA, 6.7 K/9, 2.7 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. He wasn’t worth much in drafts, so he’s a nice value to have in the back of your rotation.

If you have a starting pitcher you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.

All this week, I’ve been looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some starting pitchers.

Colby Lewis
In his first year back in the bigs, Lewis performed very well. Lewis pitched more than 200 innings, striking out close to a batter an inning. Even though he doesn’t have overpowering stuff, he was able to make hitters miss on a consistent basis.
Crude 2011 Projection: 200 IP, 4.00 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 2.7 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. He’s not going to be a sleeper this year, so he’s going to be a fantastic value.

Brett Anderson
Anderson doesn’t make this list because anyone is questioning his abilities, but because of the injury risk involved. He had problems with his pitching elbow multiple times this year, and pitched fewer than 115 innings because of it. His K/BB and GB% were both higher this year, so Anderson’s still got game.
Crude 2011 Projection: 150 IP, 3.20 ERA, 6.5 K/9, 2.0 BB/9
Verdict: Cut. Not because he’s bad, but because he should slip a couple of rounds in drafts, and you can snag him there.

Zack Greinke
Greinke’s year wasn’t 2009esque, but it was remarkably similar to 2008. He topped 200 innings for the third straight year, but his SwStr% (and thus his K/9) decreased, leaving him with less than the 200 strikeouts many were hoping for. But, he did increase his GB%, so it wasn’t all bad news.
Crude 2011 Projection: 220 IP, 3.85 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 2.15 BB/9
Verdict: Cut. Like Anderson, you should be able to get him a couple of rounds later in drafts. Plus, he may not get more than 10 W’s, once again, in 2011.

Ricky Nolasco
Once again, Nolasco frustrated the crap out of his owners. For the second straight year, Nolasco’s xFIP was far better then his ERA, thanks to a K/BB of 4.45. He’s homer prone, and hitters somehow have the ability to hit him around a bit. But, he’s going to do a great job giving you some strikeouts without a very high WHIP.
Crude 2011 Projection: 175 IP, 4.30 ERA, 9.0 K/9, 2.0 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. I’d like to think he’d go a couple of rounds later, but someone will always be willing to take him a little early with the hope that he’ll finally deliver.

If you have a starting pitcher you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.