This is article five in a seven-part series on fantasy trading. To read the introduction, click here.

Some trades are easier to get done than others. Here we have the three categories of trades, listed from easiest to pull off to hardest to pull off.

Trading Stat Categories
If you’re in a H2H league, this won’t have much of an impact on you, and really doesn’t matter in Points leagues. But, in Roto leagues, this is a big deal.

This is the best example of general trade theory. If I have a glut of pitching and am dominating in those categories, I can trade an arm or two away to help improve my hitting. Chances are, I will only be able to pull this trade off with someone in the opposite position, so we both come out as winners (in our own minds).

Trading Different Positions
You probably think that trading away players who play different positions is one of the easiest way to get things done. But, it’s easier said then done. Not every owner understands the idea of “replacement level” (and z-scores), so completing a deal may take some convincing. Believe it or not, replacement level plays a major role when analyzing fantasy baseball. In fantasy terms, a replacement level player is defined as someone who is freely available on the waiver wire.

For example, a player who hits .280 with 15 homers is far more valuable as a catcher, compared to his value as a first baseman. Everyone knows this, but it can be hard to accept when talking trade. This is because finding a first baseman with those numbers isn’t all that hard, while finding a catcher with those numbers is.

While most people know and accept this theory, they may not be able to give up an OF who puts up better raw numbers for a catcher who puts up worse raw numbers. These trades take some convincing and explanation, but can get done.

Trading Within Positions
These trades rarely occur, and for good reason. It’s rare that I have a 3B that I hate, but you like, and I trade him to you for a 3B you hate, but I like. I’ve seen it happen a couple of times, but it’s very rare. It happens more often when trying to change your team’s Roto focus, but that comes back to the first grouping in this article.

This is article four in a seven-part series on fantasy trading. To read the introduction, click here.

This might be “Public Enemy Number One” when an intelligent owner tries to deal with a, well, less intelligent owner. Smart owners will realize that they are trading for a player’s future numbers, not what he has done thus far. However, most owners want to trade players based on what they’ve done already, even if that’s not what they will be getting the rest of the year.

While using a player’s production to estimate future performance is one way of doing things, it is by no means the best way. When buying low on a players, sometimes it’s best to not tell the other owner that you think they will bounce back and be valuable, because they will make you pay for it. For example: Last season, I had a deal completed that just needed the final touches. The deal was fair as is, but I asked the owner to throw Nolasco in the deal (this was right after he was sent down to the minors), since he was planning on dropping him as part of the deal, anyway. He did, and because of it, the trade ended up being a steal. A player that the other owner had no problem giving up became the biggest part of the deal, for me. If he had known I was targeting Nolasco, the deal may have never got done because I wasn’t willing to pay an extra price for him.

Playing From Different Playbooks
This relates nicely to the points made above. One of the bigger hurdles to overcome in trade talks is being on different pages. For the most part, every owner is going to have a different view of every player. One might see him as a valuable commodity that they’d like to acquire, while others may see him as a pile of junk. If those two owners can get together, a trade can be made. But, that isn’t always the easiest thing. Once and awhile an owner will offer someone they see as a valuable piece to sweeten the pot, but you may not see him as someone you’re interested in.

Trades are the easiest to complete when you are either playing from the exact same playbook, or two polar opposite ones. Anytime you’re in the gray area, it’s going to take a little more work.

Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Francisco Liriano – He has run hot and cold this year. In his last four games, Liriano is 0-3 with a 4.68 ERA, which cost him a shot at the All-Star game. But Liriano has also enjoyed two different hot streaks this year and overall he has a sparkling 2.88 xFIP and a nice 9.88 K/9. According to the price guide over at Last Player Picked, Liriano has been worth $11 this year, far off the $30+ pace of Adam Wainwright, Josh Johnson and Ubaldo Jimenez. While he may not be quite in their class, do not be afraid to pay more than $11 in value to acquire Liriano for the rest of the season.

Ricky Nolasco – One of the most volatile players in fantasy baseball the past few years, Nolasco has really disappointed owners who valued him at 2009’s 3.28 xFIP. But given his streaky nature, now might be the ideal time to take a flyer on him. In his last 30 games, Nolasco has a 27.3 HR/FB rate, easily the highest in the majors. If he can get the HR under control, Nolasco could shave a run or more off his ERA going forward. He is not the strikeout pitcher he was last year, but a 7.64 K/9 is nothing to dismiss lightly.

Kurt Suzuki – The good news this year is that Suzuki is continuing to add to his HR power. In his first full season in the majors he had a 4.2 HR/FB rate. Last year it was 8.0 and so far this year it is 11.2 percent. But injuries and a .240 BABIP have held down his overall value this year. Suzuki appears over the injured ribs that sidelined him earlier in the year. Now he just needs to have a little better luck on balls in play.

SELL

David DeJesus – One of the players rumored to be on the trading block in MLB, DeJesus should be shopped in fantasy, too. He is a good fantasy player because he contributes in all five categories. The problem is that he does not really excel in any of them. He will reach double-digits in both HR and SB, but just barely in each of them. Right now he is very valuable thanks to his .329 AVG. But that was produced with a .366 BABIP, 44 points above his lifetime mark. ZiPS sees him hitting 30 points lower the rest of the way and even that lower mark is still 9 points above his lifetime mark.

Mat Latos – He has been everything his owners have expected and more so far this season. In his last 11 games, Latos is 8-1 with a 1.60 ERA and has 74 Ks in 73.1 IP. That stretch has been fueled by a .212 BABIP and he has allowed just 2 HR in that span. Obviously he will not be able to keep that pace going for the remainder of the season. The other red flag surrounding Latos is the unknown about how much he will pitch the rest of the way. He had injury problems in the minors and earlier in the year the Padres said they would be careful with his workload in the second half. That may go out the window with the team involved in a pennant race but it is still something that fantasy owners need to concerned with in August and September.

Joel Pineiro – In his last six games, Pineiro is 6-0 with a 2.08 ERA. That hot streak has brought his ERA (3.96) in perfect alignment with both his FIP (3.95) and xFIP (3.93). So, while he was a bit unlucky early in the season, regression has hit for Pineiro. In his career, Pineiro has a 4.36 ERA, which is essentially what ZiPS projects for him the rest of the season. If you do hold him, you will want to play matchups the rest of the way. Pineiro has a 2.22 ERA at home and a 6.80 mark on the road.

HUNCH

Dexter Fowler – After not hitting the first two months of the season, Colorado sent Fowler to the minors. In Triple-A this year he put up a .340/.435/.566 line in 124 PA before being recalled by the Rockies. While Colorado already had a full outfield, which forced Seth Smith and Ryan Spillborghs to vie for time, Fowler was immediately inserted into the lineup as leadoff hitter. He has picked up right where he left off in the minors, with 10 hits in his first 24 ABs. I like Fowler to win a starting job the rest of the season and to exceed his ZiPS projection of 221 PA the rest of the way. I also think he will hit better than his .255 projection and exceed 9 SB.

Jordan Zimmermann, Erik Bedard, and Edinson Volquez are looking to finally get their first chance this year to pitch in the majors. Here is a quick look on the status of each one’s return.

Jordan Zimmermann (1% – all owned percentages are Yahoo values) – Tommy John Surgery – Jordan made his first rehab start this past Saturday for the Potomac Nationals where he threw 25 pitchers over 2 innings. His fast ball was measured in the mid-nineties, which is what he threw before the injury. Right now the Nationals are looking to bring him up late August or early September.

With many teams shutting down their pitchers in that time frame, Jordan looks like a good bet to place in a DL spot, if available, to save for the last month of the season.

Erik Bedard (45%) – Labrum Surgery on Left Shoulder – Erik was supposed to make his first start of the season yesterday versus the Royals. Instead he was scratched for inflammation in his shoulder and is now looking to make his first start after the All-Star break.

Labrum surgeries are really tough to come back from and Erik is already running into problems. It may be worth a chance to see if he can come back, but I wouldn’t want to count on it. If you have room, put him on the bench and see how his first couple starts go before starting him regularly.

Edinson Volquez (21%) – Tommy John Surgery – Edinson looks to return to the Reds sometime after the All-Star break. It looked like he may have been able to join the Reds sooner, but lackluster control in his last outing for AAA Louisville has pushed his time table back. In his 5 rehab starts so far this season, he has a 1.88 ERA , 19 strikeouts and 5 walks in 24 innings.

Edinson should be picked up if available in your league. It is even more important if it is a keeper league. He can be a top flight starter and is definitely worth the chance to see if he returns to his previous form.

This is article three in a seven-part series on fantasy trading. To read the introduction, click here. To read Part One of the General Tips article, click here.

5. Alter Your Plan
Are you confused yet? We left off part one by saying that you should stick to a plan, but that can only go so far. Don’t be afraid to re-evaluate your plan if talks stall. But, don’t alter your plans just to get a deal done. Make sure the trade still makes your team better. Most of the time, altering your plans is done out of necessity, not choice. If you don’t alter you plans, a deal may have no shot of getting done.

6. Don’t Be Afraid To Walk Away
It is frustrating to walk away from a deal, especially if you have been negotiating for awhile. Having a long discussion end in nothing makes owners feel bad because they spent a whole lot of time and effort and have nothing to show for it. Believe me, I know. I just walked away from two long weeks of negotiations, and it doesn’t feel good. If you can’t get a deal done, use it as fuel to get the next one done. You’ve learned something about how other owners may view the pieces you are offering, so you can apply your new found knowledge to the next deal. The key to walking away from a failed deal is the ability to not take it personally. Segue!

7. Don’t Take It Personally
These deals aren’t personal attacks…usually. Once and awhile owners will try to pick on one another if they think they can fool an owner into taking a deal easier than they can fool another. Even then, it isn’t a personal attack, but an insight into how others value your baseball acumen.

I still can’t find anything, and my earthly belongings are on a truck somewhere between New York and California – with New York being more likely despite me being in California. Ain’t moving grand? That said, let’s get on to the meat of the matter. To the Waiver Wire, dudes!

Asdrubal Cabrera, Cleveland Indians (42%)
This should serve as a reminder that Cabrera is still alive. The team has already begun talking about a rehab assignment, and he may be back soon after the All-Star break. Maybe the injury will sap some of his power, but it’s not like Cabrera was smacking the stuffing out of the ball anyway (.081 ISO) and power is not really his game. His feet should be fine – although one stolen base in 140+ 2010 plate appearances doesn’t inspire confidence. So wait, why do we like him? Well, Cabrera can put up a nice batting average (.287 career) and plays at a tough position. There are plenty of owners out there looking at worse situations at shortstop, and if they wanted to get ahead of the game and owned an open DL spot, they could drop their current shortstop, pick up Cabrera, and then pick up Jason Donald (1% owned in Yahoo leagues) for the meantime. Emulating the Cleveland Indians isn’t usually the way to go, but in this case, it should make for a player with a decent batting average at the very least. While Donald’s walk rate is not inspiring (4.9%), he doesn’t strike out much (18.2%) and his BABIP (.330) is not out of line for a man with his above-average wheels or current line drive percentage (22.9%). It looks like he can continue putting up the stats that he’s sporting right now in the short-term future.

Jayson Nix, Cleveland Indians (1% owned)
Hey, it’s Cleveland Indians’ Middle Infield Day! Chalk this up as a win for deep league owners, as most mixed leaguers will want to stay clear of the Cleveland ‘situation.’ Carson Cistulli noted that a) Cleveland’s lineup is wicked young; and b) Nix will be in the mix going forward. Young lineups and bad teams mean opportunities for fantasy managers, and if Nix wins the playing time at second base, he will be more than relevant in deeper leagues given his ability to put up above-average power (.185 ISO this year, .190 last) for a middle infielder. He even has a little speed (10 stolen bases, 2 caught stealing in 2009). Donald will shift over from shortstop once Cabrera returns and should give Nix a run for his money, but at some point, Nix’ batted ball luck will have to change. Do you know that his career BABIP is .234? That’s putrid. Even coming in 451 plate appearances, that is not sustainable. Yes, he’s a fly-ball hitter (48.3% career), and fly balls have worse BABIPs, but this is just ridiculous. Perhaps he needs to work on his line drive stroke (13.1% career, 10.6% this year), but the best news right now is that he has playing time for two weeks and the chance to catch fire. Long term, it’s either Donald that wins at the position, ostensibly for his defense, or as Satchel Price pointed out in his excellent “2013” series, Jason Kipnis for his good-looking bat.

This is article two in a seven-part series on fantasy trading. To read the introduction, click here.

1. Know Your Opponent
You should have a pretty good idea of your opponents roster entering into trade talks. If you don’t, talks will be far more drawn out and difficult then they have to be. Know what you want from your opponent, and know what he needs.

2. Pre-Offer Communication
I tend not to make offers out of the blue. While there is nothing wrong with just proposing a trade with someone, I always try to send them a quick email to gauge potential interest first. This helps prevent an owner from feeling like you are trying to swoop in and grab one of their players without warning. However, if there is a trading block in your league, and the player you are trying to trade for (or trying to trade away) is on said block, then you do not need any warning before offering a deal, because had a chance to see it coming.

3. Slightly Lopsided Initial Offer
This goes back to our general trading theory. While you need to make an offer they will at least have to consider, you should always try to get the most value out of a deal that you possibly can. Make the offer that gives you the biggest benefit, and once and awhile, it will get accepted. Most of the time, however, it will be the jumping off point.

4. Have A Plan (And Stick To It)
Don’t just offer trades willy-nilly. Before you send a proposal, have an idea of what you are willing to give up. For further clarification, an example is appropriate: Before the season began, I offered  Joel Hanrahan/Jason Marquis for Andy LaRoche/Conor Jackson (20-team wRC/FIP league). I hoped he would take the deal the way it was, because I wanted a 3B and some LF insurance for my bench, and could afford to give up both Hanrahan and Marquis. However, going into the trade, I decided I was willing to give up Luke Gregerson instead of Hanrahan, if it came down to it. And, guess what? It did. We ended up completing a deal because I knew what I was willing to give up.

Part Two will be up tomorrow morning.

With the Blue Jays in the middle of their annual fade from contention (16-24 since May 20th), there’s a very real chance that the team will look to sell high on All Star John Buck and his career (.351 wOBA, 1.4 WAR) year. He’s scheduled to become a free agent after the season and is dangerously close to falling out of Type-B status, meaning he could walk with Toronto receiving nothing in return. They already have a competent backup in Jose Molina, but more importantly, they have a big time prospect mashing in Triple-A.

J.P. Arencibia, the 21st overall pick in the 2007 draft, is currently hitting .317/.366/.641 with 26 doubles and 21 homers in 306 plate appearances at Las Vegas, his second season at the level. He’s performing better away from hitter friendly Cashman Field (.365/.403/.730), and MinorLeagueSplits.com has his park neutralized batting line at .301/.350/.605, obviously still stellar. It’s quick the rebound for Arencibia, who hit just .236/.284/.444 at the same level and in the same park last season.

The former Tennessee Volunteer dropped out of Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects list this season after they ranked him as the 43rd best prospect in the game rior to the 2009 season. Our own Marc Hulet didn’t lose the faith, ranking Arencibia as the game’s 86th best prospect this March. The crew at BA said the 24-year-old’s “swing is long and his bat speed is ordinary,” but he still “could provide 20-25 homers on an annual basis and solid defense.”

Even if it comes with the caveat of a .230 or .240 AVG, a backstop that smacks 20 homers has plenty of fantasy value. Miguel Olivo has always seemed to find a fantasy home despite a similar skill set, right down to the hacktastic approach. In fairness, Arencibia boasts a career high walk rate this year and has steadily improved ever so slightly in that department through the years, but I don’t think we’ll ever see even a 50 walk season out of him.

If you’re hurting for a catcher, especially in an AL-only setup or a deep mixed league, Arencibia’s a great guy to stash on the bench for the inevitable call up. At the very least, I would expect the Jays to bring him up in September as an audition for next year’s starting job.

This is article one in a seven-part series on fantasy trading. To read the introduction, click here.

To start us off, we need to first understand the concept of “trading”. While I do believe everyone has an idea of the purpose of trading, I think it tends to get lost due to simple oversight and the tendency to get lost in the moment.

If anyone has taken even the most basic econ class, they will know exactly where I’m going with this. To put it simply, in a trade there is no real “winner” or “loser”. For a trade to occur, both parties need to feel like they are getting something of value in return, and giving up something they value less. While we, as third parties, may be able to step in and render judgement on who got the better deal, both parties will still feel like they’ve won. That’s how trading works, and it always will.

To put it in a less neutral, and more fantasy baseball relevant context, trading is giving up a player you don’t want (or need) for a player that your want (or need). All of you know this, but stepping back and looking at it from a third-person perspective is important.

When you offer a deal to a fellow owner, you are always trying to make your team better. But, so is the other owner. They certainly are not going to accept a deal if they think it makes their team worse, and neither would you.

Remember this the next time you offer someone a deal. Ask yourself “Will they perceive a benefit from this trade,” and you are far more likely to get deals done. Notice that I did not say to ask yourself “Will they get better”, instead “Will they think they are getting better”. While I don’t advocate being a scumbag and ripping people off, you can trick people into making trades that may not actually make their team better.

As we get further into the season, trades are far more likely to happen. This is due to the lack of quality free agents, forcing owners to contact each other when trying to build a better roster. With trade talks heating up in real baseball, there is no better time to delve into fantasy trading. For the rest of the week, there will be a series of articles delving into different aspects of trading.

In part, this is a selfish exercise to review and reinforce ideas, but it really isn’t. Anytime we can review even the most basic of activities in order to better understand them, we are better off. For the most part, owners lost track of why we make trades, and how they come about. If we can get inside our opponents head and comprehend why they accepted or denied our offer, we have a better chance at completing a deal now, and in the future.

Because this series is meant to help you, the reader, I am going to cater to your needs. While the articles are already written and the topics decided, they are not set in stone. If you have a question at any point in the series that pertains to the subject at hand (and isn’t a “Should I trade Player X for Player Y” question, those are for chats), I will do my best to answer it directly or modify future articles to include an answer of sorts. If enough questions come in, there may be an addition to the series so I can address them in further detail. In fact, we can start right now. If you have a topic you think should be covered, put it in the comments of this post.

So, I hope the 2500+ words you will read this week will be used for good, and not for evil. If you want to know what’s coming up, the table of contents (subject to change) is located at the bottom of this post.

I: Basic Trade Theory (Tuesday)
II: General Trading Tips Part 1 (Tuesday)
III: General Trading Tips Part 2 (Wednesday)
IV: Projections vs. Production (Wednesday)
V: Degrees Of Difficulty (Thursday)
VI: Specific Keeper League Tips (Thursday)
VII: Types of Traders (Friday)