As a lefty who can spin curves that put Beyonce to shame (okay, not really), Gio Gonzalez garners attention. Gio whiffed 10.3 batters per nine innings on the farm and rated among Baseball America’s top 100 prospects prior to the 2006-2009 seasons. Yet, Gonzalez’s errant control has aggravated decision-makers enough that the 24 year-old has been traded three times-twice by the White Sox.

Last season, Gonzalez was pummeled for a 5.75 ERA in 98.2 frames for the A’s. Or was he? While Gio’s control remained poor (5.11 BB/9), he struck out 9.94 batters per nine innings and posted an above-average 46.1 percent ground ball rate, leading to a 4.02 expected FIP (xFIP). Gonzalez’s decent work was obscured by a .369 BABIP and a near-14 percent home run per fly ball rate. Prior to 2010, I wondered if Gonzalez could trade some of those K’s for fewer free passes:

It’s difficult to say what kind of pitcher Gonzalez will become as he gains more experience in the big leagues. We can dream of a day when he’ll still be whiffing bunches of batters, without the walks flowing as freely as Gatorade in the dugouts.

Granted, pitchers almost never make gains in one area without sacrificing in another. For that walk rate to go down, Gonzalez is going to have to toss more pitches around the plate. That means more contact and fewer K’s. But the trade-off would certainly be beneficial. Easier said than done, though.

So far, Gonzalez has done just that. Last year, he located 44.6 percent of his pitches within the strike zone, with a 53 first pitch strike percentage (the MLB averages are 48-51% and 57-58%, respectively). In 2010, Gio has put 47.6 percent of his offerings over the plate, while getting strike one 56.2 percent of the time.

In ’09, Gonzalez threw his four-seam fastball for a strike at a league average 64 percent rate, while his upper-70’s breaking ball was thrown for strikes just 53.7 percent of the time (58% MLB average). In 2010, his four-seamer is getting strikes 66.8 percent and the curve is up to 57.4 percent. Those gains have lead to a decrease in his walk rate. No one will mistake Gonzalez for a marksman on the mound, but his 4.4 BB/9 figure is promising.

The extra strikes have led to an increase in contact rate (from 74.4% in ’09 to 78.2%), but that’s still below the 80-81% MLB average. Gonzalez’s swinging strike rate is down from 10.3% to 8.9%. Again, though, that’s better than the big league average, which is slightly above eight percent. Gio is still getting a good number of whiffs, with 8.48 K/9.

With better luck, a few more grounders (48.7 GB%) and improved control, Gonzalez has posted a 3.82 xFIP. And odds are, he’s still there for the taking: Gio is owned in just 12 percent of Yahoo leagues. He’s a volatile talent, but Gonzalez appears to be making the necessary strides to establish himself as a quality major league starter.

Francisco Liriano, Twins

Liriano wasn’t near as bad as his 2009 ERA (5.80) indicated, as he posted rates of 8.03 K/9, 4.28 BB/9 and a 4.55 xFIP. He entered 2010 with plenty of hype, and those who invested in the 26 year-old southpaw are being rewarded handsomely. In 36 IP, Liriano has punched out a batter per inning, with 3.25 BB/9 and a 3.09 xFIP. His slider has been like a predator drone: per Trip Somers’ Pitch F/X Tool, that slide piece has been thrown for a strike 77 percent (62.8% MLB average), with an obscene 24.2 percent whiff rate (13% MLB average).

His fastball velocity has climbed from 91.7 MPH in ’09 to 93.6 MPH this year, and he’s generating ground balls at a 53.9 percent clip. That resurgent ground ball rate appears to be the result of a boatload of two seamers: according to Liriano’s Pitch F/X page, he’s throwing a two-seamer 47% of the time this season, compared to 12.1% in 2009 when his ground ball rate was 40.2%.

In terms of fooling batters, Liriano is in elite territory thus far. His 31.4 outside swing percentage is a career best and eclipses the 27% MLB average. His 74% contact rate is also well below the 80.7% MLB average. While Liriano struggled to get ahead in the count last year (55.3 first pitch strike%), he is getting first pitch strikes 64 percent of the time in 2010 (57.5% MLB average).

Josh Hamilton, Rangers

Battling back, shoulder, groin and abdomen injuries in 2009, Hamilton turned in a middling .321 wOBA that fell well short of his .386 wOBA in 2007-2008. His ISO dipped to .158, and Hamilton hacked at 36.1 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. Falling behind the pitcher often 65.3 first pitch strike percentage), Hamilton drew a walk in just 6.6 percent of his plate appearances.

While the soon-to-be-29 year-old was sidelined with a shoulder contusion during spring training, he has managed a healthy .368 wOBA in 2010. Hamilton’s pop has returned (.227 ISO), and he seems to have a better game plan at the plate. His O-Swing% is down to a league average 27 percent, and his first pitch strike percentage sits at 59.3. The lefty batter’s walk rate is a career-best 10.2 percent.

Alfonso Soriano, Cubs

Soriano was a train wreck in 2009. Bothered by a left knee injury that eventually shut him down in September and required surgery, the left fielder authored a .314 wOBA (the worst full-season mark of his career). Soriano’s elite power was merely good (.182 ISO), and his aching legs robbed him of his once-solid speed.

While the 34 year-old will collect inordinately large checks for years to come ($18M annually from 2010-2014), his bat has bounced back. Soriano has slugged to the tune of a .447 wOBA to this point, with a .350 ISO. Perhaps it’s a coincidence, but pitchers seem reluctant to toss him a strike: Soriano is seeing fewer pitches within the zone than usual (39% this year, compared to 46-48% in recent years). He’s obviously not going to continue at this pace, and his days as a SB threat are through. But Soriano’s ZiPS projection for the rest of the season (.275/.334/.513, .368 wOBA) is plenty useful.

Ben Sheets, Athletics

Sheets has been a shell of his former self in Oakland. Returning to the majors after missing the 2009 season with a torn flexor tendon in his elbow, the 31 year-old righty has 4.75 K/9 and BB/9 apiece, with a 5.65 xFIP in 30.1 innings.

The former Milwaukee Brewer previously sat 92-93 MPH with his fastball, but he’s down to 91.3 MPH this season. Sheets isn’t missing much lumber, and his trademark precision is conspicuously absent:

Here’s a comparison of Sheets’ fastball and curveball during his last healthy season (2008) and 2010, courtesy of Somers’ Pitch F/X data:

The tally for Oakland’s $10 million investment so far? -0.3 Wins Above Replacement.

Carlos Lee, Astros

How bad has Houston’s “offense” been? The Astros rank dead last in wOBA at .271, nearly 20 points worse than the 29th-ranked Mariners (.290 wOBA). The ‘Stros are the worst club in drawing walks (5.3 BB%) and hitting for power (.088 ISO).

The most egregious offender, save for Kazuo Matsui, is Carlos Lee. El Caballo has limped to a ghastly .212 wOBA during his first 98 plate appearances. Lee has yet to go yard, has a .054 ISO and has expanded his zone with a 32.1 outside swing percentage. Odds are, Lee isn’t toast. But he is 33 years old and saw his ISO drip from the .220-.255 range from 2004-2008 to .189 in 2009. ZiPS projects a good, not great .357 wOBA for the rest of the season, with a .194 ISO.

Julio Borbon, Rangers

Texas’ supplemental first-rounder in the 2007 draft generated fantasy buzz due his wheels, but his lackluster plate discipline served as a drawback. So far, it looks like Borbon spent the winter watching Corey Patterson instructional videos.

Borbon has drawn ball four just once in 80 plate appearances (1.3%), while jumping at 41.4% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. That’s leading to plenty of pitchers counts, as Borbon’s first pitch strike percentage is 63.8. The 24 year-old has been unlucky on balls put in play (.238 BABIP), but his approach has been abysmal. Recently, the Rangers have been working in Craig Gentry (another speed player with limited secondary skills) in center field. Borbon has blazing speed and is a quality defender, but he’s a mess at the dish right now.

Here’s two young righties that could be coming to a bullpen near you…

Tanner Scheppers | Rangers

A former second and supplemental first round pick, Texas hasn’t been shy about aggressively promoting the hard-throwing Scheppers since he signed for $1.25M. Baseball America describes him as having “an electric fastball that ranges from 93-99” and a “plus 82-84 mph curveball that could become plus-plus as he refines his command.” The kid clearly has the goods, but after dealing with a stress fracture and what was described as “significant wear and tear” in his throwing shoulder two years ago, it’s possible the team is looking to extract as much value from Scheppers as possible before he breaks down again.

Working strictly in relief, the 23-year-old righty made a strong pro debut in the Arizona Fall League last year, but has just gone off on Double-A hitters this year. In 11 innings he allowed just three hits (one of which was a solo homer) and struck out 19. He’s walked zero, putting his FIP in the sub-1.00 range. The Rangers bumped Scheppers up to Triple-A over the weekend, and a big league relief job is clearly within reach with Texas on top of a winnable division. He might not steal any saves from Neftali Feliz and/or Frank Francisco, at least not at first, but the strikeout and ERA potential should make him worth a spot even in a standard 5×5 league. Once Scheppers reaches the show, he’s a must-get if your league counts holds.

Jake Arrieta | Orioles

The Orioles’ bullpen is in a perpetual state of disarray this days, and there has been some talk of bringing up the 24-year-old Arrieta to help shore things up. While he doesn’t have the same blow-you-away stuff as Scheppers (92-94 mph fastball, slider, change, occasional curve according to Baseball America), Marc projected him as a number three starter down the road. Any move to the bullpen would surely be temporary.

Arrieta has held batters to a .171 batting average in Triple-A, with a 1.93 K/BB and a 2.05 GB/FB in 31 innings this year, good for a FIP just south of 2.00. Because he’s expected to join Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman in their rotation for years to come, there’s no guarantee that Baltimore will promote Arrieta to work in relief, especially when they’re going nowhere fast. If they do though, keep an on him because save opportunities could come his way rather quickly.

Even though the Yankees had a three run lead in the 9th inning on Monday night, the familiar chords of Enter Sandman did not blare from the loud speakers in the Bronx. Much to everyone’s surprise, Mariano Rivera was unavailable because of what’s being described as a “twinge in his flank,” which in english means tightness in his side. He actually wasn’t available over the weekend either, but an opportunity for his services never arose.

It’s not considered a serious injury, and the team has indicated that they expect him to need just another day or two of rest. Just like tonight, Rivera’s shoes will be filled by starter turned reliever turned starter turned reliever turned starter again and then finally a reliever (we think) Joba Chamberlain. He’s not the same guy that burst onto the scene in 2007 anymore, but he still offers strikeouts (8.71 K/9) and decent ERA (3.18) and WHIP (1.24) totals. The Yankees have two more games left with Orioles on Tuesday and Wednesday, so there’s a pretty good chance a save opportunity will comes his way in the next two days.

It’s not a long-term pick up, but Joba will give you a chance to vulture a save or two this week, which is always appreciated. He’s owned in just 28% of Yahoo! leagues, so if you run out and grab him now you might be able to have him available for tomorrow night.

Heading into 2010, Seattle Mariners starter Doug Fister was a relative unknown outside of (and perhaps even in) the Pacific Northwest. The 6-foot-8 beanpole did a decent job in his big league debut last season, posting a 4.50 xFIP with 5.31 K/9 and 2.21 BB in 61 innings. But Fister never cracked Baseball America’s list of Seattle’s top 30 prospects, and neither CHONE (4.86 FIP) nor ZiPS (5.08 FIP) expected much out of the 26 year-old this season.

Yet, following a start last night against the Texas Rangers in which he tossed eight shutout innings, Fister now holds a 1.29 ERA in 35 total frames. Fantasy owners haven’t joined the Fister fan club, however, as the 7th round pick in the 2006 draft is owned in 33 percent of Yahoo leagues and 6.3 percent of ESPN leagues. It appears that many players are justifiably skeptical of Fister’s fast start.

First, the good. Fister has issued just 1.29 BB/9, while locating 53.5 percent of his pitches within the strike zone (the MLB average is 48.2 percent in 2010). That has contributed to an above-average 60 percent rate of first pitch strikes (57.5% MLB average). The righty displayed sharp control throughout his minor league tenure as well, with 2.2 BB/9 overall and just 0.9 BB/9 at Triple-A Tacoma in 2009. A slight groundball pitcher in the minors (47.2 GB%, according to Minor League Splits), Fister has a 51.9 GB% so far this year.

The Bad? Fister isn’t fooling anyone. Utilizing an 88-89 MPH fastball over three-quarters of the time, he has punched out just 4.11 batters per nine innings. His 89.7 percent contact rate is well north of the 80.7 percent MLB average, and Fister’s 4.1 percent swinging strike rate is less than half of the 8.3 percent big league average.

And, as you probably guessed by that ERA, he’s been incredibly lucky. Fister has a .218 BABIP, without surrendering a home run. His rate of stranding runners on base (82.8 percent) will also regress in the months to come. Overall, Fister’s expected FIP, based on K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate, is 3.97.

Fister does boast very good control, and he’s backed by strong defenders: after leading the majors in team Ultimate Zone Rating in 2009, the Mariners rank 5th in 2010. But even so, Fister looks more like a league average starting pitcher than some breakout star. ZiPS projects 4.81 K/9, 2.37 BB/9 and a 4.62 FIP for the rest of the season.

I would say don’t get fooled by the shiny ERA. But, judging from those ownership rates, most fantasy players already know better.

Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

Jhoulys Chacin, Colorado Rockies (owned in 3% of Yahoo! leagues)

If you were going to create a fantasy pitcher out of scratch, you would give him a great fastball, great command and the ability to get lots of ground ball outs. Chacin may not rank as great, but he is pretty good in all three of these areas. His fastball is in the low-90s, he averaged 2.68 BB/9 in the minors and in 427 IP in his minor league career, Chacin has a 59.4 GB%. In a brief trial in the majors last year, he struggled, mostly due to command issues. But in his first start this year for Colorado, Chacin allowed 3 BB in 8 IP. He should have an extended shot in the rotation, as the Rockies have two SP (Jorge de la Rosa and Jason Hammel) on the DL. If his command holds up, Chacin could be a nice addition to any fantasy roster.

Ryan Hanigan, Cincinnati Reds (owned in 3% of Yahoo! leagues)

Right now Hanigan is living large thanks to a .433 BABIP. But if we look at his major league career, he has 446 PA with a .303 BABIP and a .277/.376/.361 slash line. He has little power and less speed, but he can deliver a solid AVG for a catcher. Also, he has started three of the last four games for the Reds. Hanigan should be owned in all NL-only leagues and should merit serious consideration from all leagues that start two catchers.

Eric Young Jr., Colorado Rockies (owned in 6% of Yahoo! leagues)

When the Rockies placed Brad Hawpe on the DL, they called up top prospect Young, despite him scuffling in Triple-A with a .600 OPS. Young is interesting because of his speed and chance to post huge SB numbers if he gets playing time, as he swiped 58 bags last year in Triple-A. And Colorado is not getting much production out of 2B Clint Barmes, who is batting just .197 while showing little of the power he displayed in 2009. Meanwhile, Young is batting .333 with 5 R and 4 SB in 7 games. Young can play both 2B and the OF and should see a lot of action in the next couple of weeks to determine if he can hit major league pitching enough to make his speed worthwhile.

Joe Mauer owners received some bad news on Sunday, as Minnesota Twins manager Rod Gardenhire said that Mauer (bruised left heel) may be week-to-week as opposed to day-to-day. With Mauer ailing, the Twins summoned prospect Wilson Ramos from Triple-A Rochester.

Ramos, 22, signed out of Venezuela in 2004 and ranked as the second-best talent in the Minnesota system (per Baseball America and Marc Hulet) entering the season. BA also named Ramos as its Winter Player of the Year after he mashed as a member of the Tigres de Aragua.

The 6-0, 220 pound righty batter has a career .288/.336/.441 line in the minors, including a .317/.341/.454 triple-slash during a 2009 season spent mostly at Double-A. Ramos is very aggressive at the dish (career six percent walk rate), but he makes a good deal of contact and has some pop, as his 18.1 percent K rate and .153 ISO attest.

While Ramos seems capable of becoming a quality starting catcher in the majors one day, he has struggled to stay healthy: he broke the tip of his left middle finger and injured his hamstring last year, missing nearly three months total. Also, Ramos doesn’t have much experience in the upper levels of the minors. He took 214 trips to the plate at Double-A last year and was off to a slow start at Triple-A this season (.179/.214/.328 in 70 PA, with three walks and 15 punch outs). CHONE projected a .263/.303/.394 line prior to 2010, and ZiPS had a .256/.297/.369 forecast. Four-for-five start aside, Ramos might not hit the ground running.

Here are some other backstops with relatively low ownership rates who may be available in your league:

Mike Napoli, Angels (owned in 51% of Yahoo leagues)

Some fantasy players abandoned Napoli due to his anemic showing so far (.184/.298/.265, .271 wOBA). However, Jeff Mathis (fractured right wrist) is on the shelf and Bobby Wilson (concussion, ankle) got hit by a freight train named Teixeira. ZiPS projects a .356 rest-of-the-season wOBA for Napoli.

Chris Snyder, Diamondbacks (23%)

With Miguel Montero (left knee surgery) out, Snyder is getting the bulk of the starts behind the plate for the D-Backs. Snyder suffered a back injury and had some lousy luck on balls put in play in 2009 (.237 BABIP). In 2010, however, he’s off to a .262/.357/.508 (.373 wOBA) start. He is projected to post a .352 wOBA for the rest of the season.

Nick Hundley, Padres (6%)

Hundley has received 16 starts to Yorvit Torrealba’s nine thus far, and he’s slashing .273/.365/.418 (.344 wOBA). Hundley won’t continue to boast a .350+ BABIP, so expect that average to drop. Even so, he hit a decent .238/.313/.406 in ’09 and possesses solid secondary skills for a catcher (career 8.3 BB% and a .147 ISO). ZiPS isn’t all that optimistic, though, with a .300 wOBA projected from here on out.

Here’s the latest on some young pitchers serving as injury replacements around the league…

Trevor Cahill & Vin Mazzaro | Athletics

I mentioned Brett Anderson’s elbow issue last week, but it turned out to be a little worse than expected; he’s going to miss as much as the next six weeks with a forearm injury. If that wasn’t bad enough, the A’s lost Justin Duchscherer on Thursday when he left his start with pain in his twice-surgically repaired hip. They’ve been replaced in the rotation by Cahill and (unofficially) Mazzaro, both of whom saw plenty of time with the big league team last year.

Cahill threw 178.2 IP of 4.92 xFIP ball with just a 4.53 K/9 last year, when he jumped from Double-A to the show. Mazzaro approximately replicated that performance (5.10 xFIP, 5.81 K/9) in a much smaller sample (91.1 IP), though he had some Triple-A time under his belt. Both have some nice long-term potential, but neither offers much in the world of fantasy baseball at the moment. Oakland’s schedule is a little tough over the next few weeks (Rangers twice, Rays, Angels), so don’t run out to grab either. Avoid the temptations of future potential, they’re non-rosterable at this point.

Jhoulys Chacin & Esmil Rogers | Rockies

With Jorge de la Rosa and Jason Hammel landing on the disabled list, the Rockies turned to two of the best young arms their farm system has to offer. Chacin, who posted a 4.97 xFIP in limited action last year, one hit the Giants over seven innings yesterday while Rogers allowed five runs through four the night before. The former features a four-pitch mix and a knockout changeup that helps him neutralizes batters of the opposite hand while the latter struggles with his offspeed offerings at times and might end up in the bullpen long-term.

Colorado’s upcoming schedule includes dates at the Padres and at the Dodgers, so if nothing else they’re looking at a favorable matchup the next turn through the rotation. I’d definitely go Chacin over Rogers though, he’s got a slightly better track record of missing bats and generating ground balls at the higher levels. He’s owned in less than 5% of Yahoo! leagues, so he should be there for the taking.

John Ely | Dodgers

Acquired in the Juan Pierre deal (how’s that one working out?), Ely took the spot of the injured Vicente Padilla, and appears to have a firm grasp on it for the foreseeable future. In his relatively short minor league career (2007 draftee), he’s exhibited solid control of the strike zone (7.8 K/9, 2.8 BB/9) and an ability to generate plenty of grounders (50.1% GB). Ely’s not a big stuff guy, but those skills generally portend good things. His next start will be against the Brewers on Thursday, then after that you’re looking at dates with the Diamondbacks and Padres.

In a standard 12-team league, there’s no reason to pay any attention to Ely. If you’re in a particularly deep league and are in a position to sacrifice some ERA and WHIP in exchange for a win near the end of the week, you could take a worse gamble.

Quick Notes

Javier Vazquez has been absolutely dreadful for the Yankees (9.78 ERA, 5.57 xFIP), but don’t expect him to lose his rotation spot anytime soon. Chances are he’ll have his next start skipped since it lands on an off day, and you should definitely keep him glued to the bench until he strings two or three good starts together. The potential for strikeouts and wins (hat tip: Yankee offense) is still there. Rick Porcello hasn’t been Vazquez bad, but he’s been pretty awful as well (8.03 ERA, 4.25 xFIP). Despite rumors of a minor league “get yourself straight” assignment, the Tigers are going to stick with him and hope he rights the ship. If you’re a savvy negotiator, now’s a great time to swoop in and try to buy low on Javy and/or Porcello, especially if the former is owned by a frustrated Yankee fan.

Today while Andruw Jones is busting out the whoop-stick, we’ll bust out the in-season wOBA (and add ZiPS Ros wOBA) and go back to see what’s going on at shortstop. Enjoy the weekend!

The Big Four:
1. Hanley Ramirez, Florida (.349 wOBA, .404 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
2. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado (.338 wOBA, .362 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
3. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia (.526 wOBA, .355 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
4. Derek Jeter, New York AL (.381 wOBA, .361 ZiPS RoS wOBA)

If the season ended today, Jeter would have the best ISO he’s had in eleven years(!), so it’s safe to say that he may even approach his career high in home runs this year (24). A twenty-twenty season would make Jeter a solid top option, and depending on Rollins’ final batting average and steals total, and Tulowitzki’s home run total, he may even be a top-3 shortstop by the end of the year. Not bad for a guy that went at the end of the third round in the spring.

The Next Best Thing:
5. Jose Reyes, New York NL (.285 wOBA, .361 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
6. Stephen Drew, Arizona (.377 wOBA, .341 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
7. Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles NL (.369 wOBA, .331 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
8. Elvis Andrus, Texas (.344 wOBA, .342 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
9. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (.322 wOBA, .352wOBA)
10. Jason Bartlett, Tampa Bay (.306 wOBA, .333 ZiPS RoS wOBA)

Elvis Andrus and Rafael Furcal are the big winners this week. Furcal moves up just by being healthy another two weeks and stealing a few bases, while Andrus is doing some really nice things in this young season. He’s got a great line drive percentage and is walking 17% of the time – there’s a chance he betters his batting average yet. Also, he’s stolen enough bases to say that he could easily best his ZiPS updated projection of 35 steals. If he can nudge that average up just a little higher, he has the upside left to lead this tier, or at least join Drew and Reyes at the top.

Bartlett falls and is honestly in danger of dropping from this tier entirely. His ZiPS updated projection only calls for a .280 average and 19 steals now, and those aren’t scintillating numbers. The worst thing about his season so far is that most of his secondary statistics are more in line with his pre-2009 career. Zobrist enters the list ahead of him because he still has more power upside even if he’s not showing it right now.

The Leftovers:
11. Asdrubal Cabrera, Cleveland (.324 wOBA, .335 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
12. Miguel Tejada, Baltimore (.364 wOBA, .341 ZiPS wOBA)
13. Marco Scutaro, Boston (.324 wOBA, .355 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
14. Ryan Theriot, Cubs (.339 wOBA, .333 ZIPS RoS wOBA)
15. Alexei Ramirez, Chicago AL (.242 wOBA, .327 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
16. Alcides Escobar, Milwaukee (.300 wOBA, .315 ZiPS RoS wOBA)

Though there is a lot of movement in this tier, the big news here is that Erick Aybar drops off the list. I know he was moving up in the ranking, and I was guilty of the same sort of Aybar love in the pre-season, but a frank look at his statistics doesn’t offer much hope for his traditional roto stats this year. See, the thing is, he obviously has almost no power (.096 ISO career) and even his speed is suspect. He only came up with 14 steals last year, one so far this year, and his speed score is currently below average. If he doesn’t better last year’s steals total, has no power, and is now showing that his batting average is also no given, well, then, he’s not so interesting, is he? I’ll take Escobar’s upside because of his wheels, even if he doesn’t yet have a stolen base.

Theriot’s strong play (though utterly powerless (.050 ISO)) earns him a spot on the list at the cost of the scuffling Yunel Escobar. The other (other) Escobar’s lack of real power or speed, and his steps back in batted ball profile, limit his upside anyway.

Which starting pitchers with shiny April ERAs pitched over their heads, and which guys with macabre surface stats got some bad bounces? To find out, let’s look at the starters with the biggest difference between ERA and expected FIP (xFIP) during the first month of the 2010 season (minimum 20 innings pitched).

First, the 10 starters whose peripherals suggest that their microscopic ERAs will climb:

Note the extremely low homer and BABIP figures, as well as the sky high strand rates. With the exception of Livan and Talbot, these guys have actually pitched pretty well thus far. It’s just that they won’t continue to compile Bob Gibson circa 1968 ERAs.

St. Louis’ Garcia, owned in just 43 percent of Yahoo leagues, is burning worms and has a history of whiffing hitters in the minors. Health and stamina remain issues for the Tommy John survivor, but he’s legit. Liriano has started off strong as well. Pelfrey (whose one relief outing isn’t included here) has pitched decently, but it’s hard to say that he has “broken out.”

Now, here are the 10 starters with ERAs far higher than their peripheral stats would suggest:

Pretty much the opposite of the previous list: very high home run and BABIP numbers, and low strand rates. Porcello’s start really hasn’t been that bad, as his strikeout and walk rates have both improved compared to his rookie season, and he has maintained his strong groundball rate to boot. It’s pretty hard to notice, though, when hits are falling in 41.5 percent of the time that balls are put in play.

Harang, Beckett, Floyd and Jackson are also good targets. They haven’t been great, but perhaps you can acquire them on the cheap from a fed up owner. Here are their rest-of-season ZiPS projections:

Harang: 4.12 FIP
Beckett: 3.37 FIP
Floyd: 4.54 FIP
Jackson: 4.25 FIP