Archive for August, 2009

The N.L. Closer Report: 8/20

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Big Jon is still pumping gas this month, as evidenced by his 97.6 MPH velocity and 9 K’s in 8.1 IP. However, whether the cause be fatigue or a lingering big toe injury, Broxton hasn’t been the same dominant force that scorched lineups in the 9th during the first half of the season. He blew a save vs. the Diamondbacks on the 15th, getting whipped for 2 home runs (Miguel Montero and Mark Reynolds) in a blown save. Broxton worked scoreless innings against St. Louis on the 17th and the 18th (which was a save op), but then gave up a run vs. the Red Birds yesterday in a loss.

While it could just be the product of an extremely small sample (a reliever’s seasonal line can be skewed from a bad appearance or two, much less numbers from one month), opponents have made contact with 92.7% of Broxton’s pitches thrown within the strike zone in August. That’s a marked jump from his 81.5% mark for the season.

Heath Bell, Padres

Heath was manhandled against the Cardinals on August 16th, coughing up 3 runs in 0.1 frames (Colby Rasmus’ 12th-inning bomb sealed the deal for St. Louis). Bell then picked up a W vs. the Cubs on the 17th, and racked up save number 30 against Chicago on the 18th. The former Mets castoff is doing everything that one could ask from a reliever: he’s fooling plenty of batters (9.99 K/9, a career-high rate), limiting the walks well enough (2.96 BB/9) and inducing worm-burners (51.7 GB%).

Huston Street, Rockies

Street destroyed hitters in July (10.1 IP, 12/0 K/BB, 1 R), but August has not been nearly as kind (5.2 IP, 5/1 K/BB, 6 R). Huston did collect 3 saves this week, though they likely gave Rockies fans indigestion (a combined 4 H, 2 R and a HR in 3 IP). Still, Street owns an outstanding 56/11 K/BB ratio in 50 IP this year, with a 2.52 Win Probability Added that ranks 8th among relievers.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Qualls picked up a save against the Dodgers on August 14th, then picked up a win in an extra-inning affair the next night. He did walk a batter in each appearance, a rarity for a guy who has dished out all of 7 unintentional walks in 48.2 frames this season. Qualls boasts a 6.0 K/BB ratio in 2009, a mark that trails only some guy named Rivera in the Bronx. Opponents are making more contact these days (his overall contact% has increased from 70.7 in 2007 to 79.6% in 2009), but it’s not like they’re doing much when the bat is put on the ball. Chad still gets groundballs by the bucketful (57.3 GB%).

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

You and I pitched as often as Mr. Hoffman this week (that is to say, not at all). The Brewers have lost four straight, putting the club’s playoff hopes at a paltry 0.5 percent. An extreme fly ball pitcher in the past, Trevor has actually posted a 45.3% groundball rate in 2009. That has certainly helped his transition from the pitching mecca that is Petco Park, but still doesn’t explain how he has managed to toss 35 innings without a single long ball surrendered.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

K-Rod has endured a trying month, getting touched up for 9 runs, 4 walks and 2 dingers in 7.1 IP. In the first year of a 3-year, $37.5M contract, Rodriguez has provided 0.3 Wins Above Replacement (generating $1.3M worth of value for the Mets thus far). His 85 MPH changeup still retains its bite (+4.19 runs/100 pitches thrown), but his 80 MPH curveball (-0.02 runs/100) and 93 MPH heater (-0.05 runs/100) have been decidedly average (and keep in mind, those numbers are subject to fluctuations in things like BABIP and HR/FB rate; those runs/100 figures would be even worse if K-Rod weren’t benefitting from a .255 BABIP).

In Control

Rafael Soriano, Braves

Watch Out For: Mike Gonzalez

Is Soriano hurt, or is he just going through one of those rough patches that hits nearly every reliever during the course of a season? Mark Bowman of MLB.com recently reported that Rafael is suffering from “muscle discomfort behind his right shoulder“, which sends off bells and whistles for a guy with a DL history resembling a Harry Potter novel in length. August has not been kind to the pending free agent, as Soriano has served up 5 runs, 3 walks and two round-trippers in 6 IP.

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson twirled 2.2 innings in an eventual 5-4 victory over the Mets on August 15th, got a 2 strikeout save against the Reds on the 18th and then notched his 30th save of the year vs. Cincy yesterday (2 K’s again). A 4.0 HR/FB% has certainly aided the flame-thrower this season, but he has made some progress in limiting the free passes (4.04 BB/9 in 2008, 3.4 BB/9 in ’09). That might lead one to believe that Wilson is pounding the zone more often, but that’s not the case. His percentage of pitches thrown within the strike zone has actually dipped from 54.3% in ’08 to 49.7% this season (49.3% MLB average). His Outside-Swing% has increased somewhat, from 17.1% to 19.6% (that’s still well below the 25% MLB average, though).

Jose Valverde, Astros

Valverde collected two saves this week, closing the door on the Brewers August 16th and the Marlins last night (he did make things a little too interesting, however, by allowing two hits versus Milwaukee and 2 walks against the Fish). Is the free-agent-to-be becoming more hittable? His strikeout rate (9.73) has hardly plummeted, but it is down for a fourth consecutive year. Valverde’s percentage of contact within the strike zone (79.9%), while still well below the 87.9% MLB average, is his highest mark since 2002. Papa Grande’s XFIP of 3.99 is his highest figure since 2004.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Franklin has notched 7 saves this month for the surging Cardinals, who now have a death grip on the NL Central race (Baseball Prospectus’ Postseason Odds have the Cards with a near-90% chance of taking home the division title). The four-pitch reliever racked up three saves this past week, with 2.2 spotless innings. To his credit, Franklin is garnering swings off the plate (29.3 Outside-Swing%) and he’s getting ahead of hitters (68.3 First-Pitch Strike%). Still, a microscopic .219 BABIP, a 3.9 HR/FB% and a near-92% rate of stranding base runners suggest he has also been exceedingly fortunate.

Francisco Cordero, Reds

The 34 year-old righty tossed a scoreless inning vs. Washington on August 14th, but Cordero’s next appearance was a 3-hit, 3-run train wreck against the Giants on the 18th. The nasty outing bumped Cordero’s ERA up to 2.30, but that’s still well ahead of his middling 4.15 XFIP. His XFIP was in excess of four in 2008, as well (4.08). His K rate (7.28 per nine) is about two ticks below his career mark (9.3 K/9).

Cordero is under contact for 2010 and 2011 at $12 million a season (there’s a 2012 option for the same amount, or a $1M buyout). If a win above replacement level is worth roughly $4.5M on the free agent market, then that contract values Co-Co as a 2.6+ WAR reliever. Cordero was worth 0.8 WAR last year, and is at 0.9 this season. That’s an awful lot of money invested in a good, but hardly great reliever.

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps was lashed for 5 runs in 0.2 IP between August 9th and the 13th, but he did turn in two quiet innings against Milwaukee as the Pirates swept the Brew Crew in a three-game set (he picked up a save last evening). The soon-to-be 26 year-old hasn’t been the unmitigated disaster that his ERA (6.25) would indicate, as a .377 BABIP and a home run/ fly ball rate of 13.6 have put a big dent in his stats. Still, his 4.66 XFIP isn’t all that praise-worthy. Capps’ XFIP has risen three straight seasons.

Watch Your Back

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Watch Out For: Ryan Madson

“Lights Out” picked up a save against Atlanta on August 14th (giving up a hit and a walk), then got his lights knocked out the next day vs. the Braves (2 H, 2 BB in a blown save). He then collected a gimme 0.1 IP save to finish the series with the club’s division rival. A balky knee has contributed to his 2009 woes and an unsustainably low home run/ fly ball rate last season portended to some regression this year, but it was difficult to see this coming. Despite all the variance in his ERA over the years (ebbing and flowing from 5.28 in ’06, 3.36 in ’07 and 1.95 in ’08), Lidge’s XFIP was actually fairly stable. This year, however, his XFIP sits at a lousy 4.91.

Carlos Marmol, Cubs

Watch out for: Kevin Gregg, John Grabow

With Gregg pouring ample amounts of gas on Chicago’s playoff chances this month (8 IP, 10 R and a stunning 5 HR allowed), the Cubs have apparently decided to give Marmol a shot at ninth-inning duties. Mr. Marmol possesses perhaps the nastiest slider in the game, a wicked 83 MPH breaker that has been worth +2.13 runs/100 pitches during the course of his major league career.

Sadly, Marmol also has about as much control as Sweet Lou during an umpiring tirade. The Dominican Republic native has never boasted great ability to paint the corners, but he has lost all semblance of the zone with 8.31 BB/9 during the 2009 season. Opposing batters have prudently swung at fewer of Marmol’s offerings: his O-Swing% has dipped from 30.1% in 2007 to 20.3% in ’09, with an overall swing% decline from 42.5% in ’07 to 37.4% this year. A .246 BABIP and absurdly low 1.8 HR/FB% have allowed him to escape many jams, but his XFIP is 5.42. He’s surely capable of much better, but it’s hard to be truly optimistic when a guy is walking nearly a batter per inning.

Matt Lindstrom/Leo Nunez, Marlins

Watch Out For: Dan Meyer

The Marlins had only one save opportunity this week, which went to Nunez. Nunez, formerly of the Pirates and Royals organizations, has a 48/20 K/BB in 52.1 IP this season. With a 56.7 First-Pitch strike%, Leo hasn’t exactly gotten on top of hitters regularly (59% MLB avg). Still, Nunez has been a veritable control artist compared to Lindstrom, who has issued 5.35 BB/9 during an injury-marred 2009 season.

Mike MacDougal, Nationals

On the whole, MacDougal has not pitched well at all this season (37 IP, 18/26 K/BB). At least he has avoided walking anyone over his last four appearances, a 4.1-inning stretch in which he collected two saves (vs. Cincinnati on the 14th and the 16th). The 32 year-old journeyman is getting grounders (59.8 GB%), but he’s going to have to do a far better job of getting ahead in the count if he hopes to have any kind of sustained success.

Check back Friday for the A.L. Closer Report.


Minor Impacts: August 20

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future. With the end to the minor league season less than a month away, many of the players we’re looking at now will be making their impacts in early-to-mid 2010. Some of the players we’ve educated you on before their promotions include: Vince Mazzaro, Andrew McCutchen, Gordon Beckham, Alex Avila, Brian Matusz, Marc Rzepczynski, Jake Fox, Nolan Reimold, Daniel Bard, Bud Norris, and Mat Latos.

Brian Bogusevic: Pitcher-to-hitter conversions have been pretty trending over the past few seasons and Bogusevic’s switch received a lot of attention last year. Things have quieted down in that regard in 2009, but the talented outfielder just keeps plugging along for Houston in triple-A. He currently has a line of .278/.354/.374, which is extremely encouraging considering that this is his first full season as a hitter. The biggest disappointment to this point has been his lack of power, something that was a strength of his in college. Currently, his ISO is just .098. However, he is hitting for a decent average, he’s stolen 18 bases in 21 tries and he’s taken his fair share of walks (10.2 BB%). Bogusevic, a left-handed hitter, does struggle against southpaws with an OPS of just .650. The 25-year-old has the potential to be a solid regular center fielder, but he probably won’t be a star.

Josh Bell: Entering the 2009 season, the Baltimore Orioles organization had a problem. Incumbent third baseman Melvin Mora was getting older and his numbers were beginning to slip. As the season now nears its end, nothing has changed in that regard. However, the club now has a replacement, something that was sorely lacking at the beginning of the season. Bell, 22, has responded to the trade by hitting .364/.442/.682 in 44 double-A at-bats with Baltimore. Overall, he’s hitting .304/.393/.519 with 15 homers and 32 doubles in 378 at-bats. Bell is also showing a solid approach at the plate with respectable strikeout and walk rates.

Michael Taylor: The Philadelphia organization is probably pretty happy with the way the trade deadline turned out. The club received veteran Cliff Lee in a trade and he’s been lights-out in the National League. The club also managed to hang on to most – if not all – its top prospects. One of those prospects – Taylor – has shown the potential to be an impact player at the MLB level once a spot opens up for him in the outfield. After hitting .333/.408/.569 in 318 double-A at-bats, Taylor moved up to triple-A where he is hitting .282/.359/.491 in 110 at-bats. Overall, he has 20 homers and 21 steals, as well as a strikeout rate below 20 K%, which is excellent for a hitter with 20-25 home run potential.

Lucas May: With some questions surrounding Russell Martin (especially concerning his lack of power), the incumbent No. 1 catcher in Los Angeles, the Dodgers organization may need to look for a replacement sooner rather than later. Having basically given catching prospect Carlos Santana away to the Indians (a terrible decision, even at the time), the club must hope that May can continue to build off of his 2009 season – a year in which the 24-year-old catcher repeated double-A with respectable results. The right-handed hitter is currently batting .281/.374/.427 with six homers in 199 at-bats. May was converted to catcher in 2007 and he’s still a little rough around the edges defensively, but he’s the best in-house option that the club has at double-A or triple-A.

Danny Dorn: Cincinnati outfield prospects like Todd Frazier and Chris Heisey get a lot of ink, but Dorn has quietly put together a respectable pro career. A former 32nd-round pick out of Cal State Fullerton in 2006 as a senior, the left-handed hitter slugged 20 or more home runs in both 2007 and 2008. His power numbers have been muted a bit in triple-A Louisville this season (His ISO is still .184), but Dorn still has the potential to provide some pop off of a big-league bench. A poor defensive player, Dorn could also be a valuable platoon player in the American League as a designated hitter. He has hit just .197/.239/.394 against southpaws in his career, but he has a line of .293/.358/.475 against right-handers.

Neil Walker: It’s hard to believe that Walker was once the pride of Pittsburgh. A native of Pennsylvania, the former catcher was drafted with the club’s first-round pick in 2004 out of an area high school. Things really began to go downhill for Walker when he was unable to stick at catcher and moved to third base, where he provides below-average offense for the position. He’s been unable to maintain a respectable average or show the patience at the plate necessary to succeed in triple-A, let alone the Majors. Currently, he’s hitting .256/.306/.472 with 12 homers in 309 at-bats. Still only 23, a change of scenery may be the best thing for this former top prospect.

Jose Vallejo: Rumored to be headed to Houston as part of the loot in the Pudge Rodriguez trade, this Rangers second base prospect is having an off season. After hitting .292 with 11 homers and 42 steals in 2008, Vallejo has slumped to .245/.290/.316 with just two homers and 10 stolen bases in 392 at-bats split between double-A and triple-A. Fortunately, he’s still just 22 years old and is a solid buy-low risk, especially for an organization that is attempting to rebuild its farm system from virtually nothing.


Waiver Wire Watch for Week 20

Now that the trade deadline has passed for most leagues, the focus for fantasy players turns exclusively to the waiver wire for new players to add to your team. Here are five players available under certain thresholds, according to the numbers at CBS Sports, who could be assets for your team for the remainder of the season.

Under 40 Percent Owned

Leo Nunez (35%) – Most leagues are very effective at combing the waiver wire for saves but Nunez seems to have fallen through the cracks. He has four saves this month for the Marlins and has the added advantage of being a big strikeout guy. Nunez has a mid-90s fastball and an effective change-up, which has led to an 8.25 K/9 ratio this season.

Under 30 Percent Owned

Carlos Gonzalez (22%) – It may be crowded in the Rockies’ outfield, but Gonzalez has forced his way into regular playing time. In his last 15 games, Gonzalez has a .417-5-11-10-1 line. The lefty batter gets the larger half of any platoon role and Gonzalez’ ability to play anywhere in the outfield makes it easier to keep him in the lineup for Colorado.

Under 20 Percent Owned

Dustin Nippert (15%) – The later the season, the more important the counting categories become compared to the ratio ones. Nippert offers owners chances for both Ws and Ks. In his first 10 games for the Rangers, covering six starts, Nippert is 4-1 with a 7.75 K/9 mark. His fastball averages just under 93 mph and Pitch Type Values show his curve ball as a plus pitch.

Under 10 Percent Owned

Angel Pagan (8%) – He is not an impact player in any fantasy category but he can contribute in all of them. In 45 games, and 40 starts, Pagan has 9 SB. This month alone, he has 10 R scored. Pagan has even more value in leagues with daily transactions, as he has a .951 OPS with all 3 HR in his home ball park.

Is This Guy Really on the Waiver Wire?

Elvis Andrus (41%) – The soon to be 21-year-old SS is one of the top prospects in the game and he has settled in as an everyday player. In his last 10 games, Andrus is batting .371-1-3-6-3. It would be nice if he was at the top of the order but the SB potential alone is enough to make him a worthwhile add down the stretch.


Examining Barry Zito and Bengie Molina

In two-plus years with the Giants, Barry Zito has been a major disappointment. Forget his massive salary, Zito has a 29-41 record with a 4.72 ERA. The primary catcher for Zito in San Francisco throughout his tenure in the National League is Bengie Molina. It has been suggested more than once that Molina is part of the problem with Zito’s performance, yet he has been behind the plate for 15 of Zito’s 24 starts this season, including eight of his last 10 outings.

Giants manager Bruce Bochy is a former catcher and he should be uniquely qualified to assess how important the individual pitcher-catcher relationship is, one that takes on even greater importance for the club this season as it battles for a Wild Card berth in the playoffs. That Bochy continues to write Molina’s name in at catcher with Zito on the hill tells us his opinion of the matter.

There is no easy way to determine if Molina is hurting Zito because there are so many factors to consider. One of the hardest things to combat is the sample-size problem, especially with the Giants’ preference to have Molina behind the plate as often as possible.

The biggest sample we have is the games pitched by Zito throughout his major league career. There are six catchers who have caught him at least 15 times. Here are the rate stats for those who have caught Zito the most in the majors:

Games AVG OBP SLG SO/BB AB/HR
Ramon Hernandez 93 .210 .288 .316 2.17 51.68
Bengie Molina 65 .261 .347 .421 1.45 32.41
Jason Kendall 64 .234 .321 .381 1.72 32.06
Damian Miller 25 .284 .351 .464 1.88 25.21
Adam Melhuse 18 .249 .318 .385 2.03 36.09
Greg Myers 17 .252 .326 .397 2.36 28.69

Among the catchers who have caught Zito the most, Molina does not fare very well in any of our categories. But this could easily be because Molina is catching Zito when he is no longer an elite, or even above-average pitcher. To get a better idea we are going to have to compare Molina to the other catchers on the Giants.

So far in his career for San Francisco, Zito has pitched 90 games. Molina has been behind the plate in 65 of those games, or 72 percent. Here is how Zito has fared with Molina behind the plate compared to all of the other catchers Bochy and the Giants have used since 2007:

Molina: 20 W, 33 L, .261/.347/.421 1.45 SO/BB, 32.41 AB/HR
Others: 9 W, 8 L, .242/.315/.366 1.66 SO/BB, 45.75 AB/HR

Here are the breakdowns for the other Giants catchers besides Molina when Zito is on the mound:

Games AVG OBP SLG SO/BB AB/HR
Pablo Sandoval 8 .233 .311 .321 1.75 96.5
Guillermo Rodriguez 6 .224 .283 .328 2.20 58.00
Steve Holm 6 .300 .361 .469 1.21 32.50
Eli Whiteside 4 .211 .280 .378 2.44 22.50
Eliezer Alfonzo 1 .200 .385 .300 0.33 inf

In extremely small samples, Zito has appeared much more like the pitcher he was in Oakland with Sandoval or Rodriguez behind the plate. Unfortunately for the Giants, Rodriguez is now in the Baltimore organization.

Bochy and the Giants have apparently made the decision that Sandoval will not be catching anymore. It would be thinking way outside the box for the Giants to take their starting third baseman and make him Zito’s permanent personal catcher but at this point, that may be their best option to get the most value out of Zito going forward.

It is hard to blame the Giants for wanting no longer to expose Sandoval to the rigors of catching. But it is time to pull the plug on Molina being the primary catcher for Zito because the results are simply no good. Zito has a .377 winning percentage in 53 decisions with Molina behind the plate. This is one time where we have enough data to draw a firm conclusion.

Throughout it all, Zito has taken the high road. He has expressed a willingness to continue with Molina as his primary catcher, despite the less than stellar results when the two work together.

But this is a case when the manager has to step in for the good of the team. With the playoffs in the balance and Zito on the mound, Bochy simply cannot put Molina behind the plate if he wants to give his team its best shot to win. Molina should be working out at first base so that Bochy has the option to keep his bat in the lineup when Zito pitches.


Stock Watch: 8/17

Stock Up

Tommy Hanson, Braves

A product of the now-defunct draft-and-follow process (he was a 22nd-round pick in the 2005 draft), Hanson garnered plenty of headlines during his ascent to Atlanta. The 6-6 righty laid waste to AAA to start the 2009 season (66.1 IP, 12.21 K/9, 2.31 BB/9), and he has made a very strong first impression as the Braves look to stay in the playoff race.

Hanson has punched out 6.72 per nine frames in the majors, with 3.54 BB/9 and a 4.14 FIP in 73.2 IP. The soon-to-be 23 year-old has all the pitches: a 93 MPH fastball, 83 MPH slider, 75 MPH curve and an 83 MPH change of pace. Hanson is getting ahead of hitters pretty well (his 63.4 First-Pitch Strike% is over 4 percentage points above the MLB average), and his breaking pitches in particular look nasty.

Tommy’s slider has 3.7 inches of horizontal movement away from righties (the MLB avg. is 2.4), while his curve breaks downward slightly more than the average breaker (5.8 inches, 5.3 average), with 1.1 inches more horizontal break (6.4) than the average yellow hammer (5.3). Here’s Hanson’s movement chart from his August 11th start versus Washington:

hansonmovement

Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies

The 23 year-old Venezuelan (formerly of Arizona and Oakland) seems to have garnered the “busted prospect” label, based largely upon his anemic work with the A’s in 2008 (.278 wOBA in 316 PA, with an untenable 4.1 BB% and 26.8 K%). It’s never wise to write off such a young player, however; it’s not as though his skill set will just automatically remain stagnant.

Shipped to Colorado in the off-season, Gonzalez pasted the Pacific Coast League for a .339/.418/.630 line in 223 PA in ’09. AAA Colorado Springs is certainly a favorable offensive environment (inflating offensive production by nine percent compared to a neutral ball park from 2006-2008), but CarGo did a better job of working the count with a 10.3% walk rate, whiffing 16.7% of the time.

Gonzalez is getting fairly regular playing time for the Rockies right now, and he has a .285/.341/.517 triple-slash in 170 PA. Coors caveats apply, but Carlos still has +3.5 Park-Adjusted Batting Runs on the season. He hasn’t transformed into some model of plate discipline (31.8 Outside-Swing%, 25% MLB average), but Gonzalez has taken ball four 8.5% of the time. He has also chipped in 8 steals in 9 attempts.

Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs

A Japanese star inked to a four-year, $48M deal prior to the 2008 season, Fukudome posted a .328 wOBA in his “rookie” season that was considered a big disappointment. It’s not like he was a bad player, though, walking nearly 14% of the time while playing plus defense in an outfield corner. A brutal second half (.217/.314/.326) fueled the perception that Fukudome was nothing more than a fourth outfielder, but there really wasn’t all that much changed in Kosuke’s core skills when compared to his scorching first half (.279/.383/.408). Some decline? Yes, but nothing that explains a near-90 percentage point dip in BABIP:

Fukudomania! (1st half): 14.2 BB%, 18.1 K%, .129 ISO, .335 BABIP
BOOO! (2nd half): 12.8 BB%, 16.7 K%, .109 ISO, .248 BABIP

In 2009, Fukudome has boosted his lumber production with a .369 wOBA. He’s drawing a walk 16% of the time, with a .191 ISO to boot. Kosuke has compiled 3 Wins Above Replacement already. He basically looks like the scouting reports suggested: great eye, doubles power with the occasional dinger, with a enough range to play a passable center field.

Neftali Feliz, Rangers

When the Rangers acquired a bounty of young talent from the Braves in the July 2007 Mark Teixeira blockbuster, Feliz was a hard-throwing string bean with less than 75 professional innings under his belt. Two years later, Feliz is just plain overmatching major league batters out of the ‘pen.

His repertoire in short stints has been sick: a 98 MPH fastball, an 81 MPH power curve and an 89 MPH changeup. A lot of guys throw hard, but few possess Feliz’s combination of velocity and movement: his fastball tails in on the hands of righty batters 7.4 inches (6 inch MLB avg), with 11.2 inches of horizontal break (8.6 avg.) He essentially throws his heater with 4-seam velocity and vertical movement, with the running action of a two-seamer.

In 8.2 IP, Neftali has whiffed 16 batters, without allowing a walk. His long-term future lies in the rotation, but he could conjure up memories of K-Rod’s 2002 dominance in the meantime.

Jonny Gomes, Reds

The former Rays slugger is anathema to all things leather (career -19.9 UZR/150 in the outfield), but the born DH has slammed NL pitching for 15 home runs and a .277/.357/.584 line in 196 plate appearances for the Reds. Gomes likely won’t continue to homer at a Pujols-like pace, but even a performance in line with his career .240/.332/.470 triple-slash would be of use to fantasy owners. He can slug with the best of them, and he’s in a ballpark that certainly digs the long ball.

Stock Down

David Wright, Mets

Mets fans must be balled up in the fetal position by this point, no? The club entered the season with a strong shot of competing in the NL East on the basis of the Santana/Reyes/Wright/Beltran quartet of stars. Only Santana remains on the field now, as Wright took a 94 MPH Matt Cain fastball off the helmet in Saturday’s contest against the Giants.

The third baseman was having a productive, if atypical season at the plate in 2009. His .387 wOBA doesn’t look all the different, but Wright’s ISO dipped from around .220 from 2004-2008 to just .143 in 2009. He punched out a career-high 24.6% of the time, yet hit .324 on the basis of a ridiculous .415 BABIP.

The focus now, though, shifts to Wright’s long-term health. There’s a better chance of sudden peace in the Middle East than the Mets making the playoffs (Baseball Prospectus has New York’s odds at 0.15%; “so you’re telling me there’s a chance…Yeah!”) Wright didn’t “get his bell rung”, and he wasn’t “shook up”. He suffered a brain injury. There’s no incentive for the team to rush him back.

Johnny Cueto, Reds

Cueto has gotten throttled since the calendar turned to July. The 23 year-old Dominican gave up a .587 opponent slugging percentage that month, has been battered to the tune of a .644 SLG% in August. He cramped up during his August 11th start vs. St. Louis after two innings, then got drubbed for 8 H and 7 R in just 2.2 IP against the Nationals on the 15th.

Johnny has made some progress in terms of limiting free passes (3.03 BB/9, compared to 3.52 in ’08), but the homer problems persist. Cueto’s HR/FB% isn’t out of whack (11.2%), but the flyball-slanted righty has allowed 1.32 HR/9 this season after serving up 1.5 per nine in 2008. Reds skipper Dusty Baker has indicated that Cueto will have his next start skipped.

Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals

Not that long ago, I asked if Zimmermann might just be the best of 2009’s crop of rookie starters. Unfortunately, that argument is now moot. The 23 year-old righty will be out anywhere from 12-18 months following Tommy John surgery. It’s a highly disappointing development for Nationals fans, who had visions of a Strasburg/Zimmermann 1-2 duo leading the club out of the depths of the NL East standings.

Garrett Jones, Pirates

A 28 year-old minor league vet with a career .265/.321/.463 line in nearly 2,500 PA at the AAA level, Jones went all Shane Spencer on the NL in July (1.061 OPS, 10 HR). August has seen Mr. Jones hit a more reasonable .259/.333/.444, and even that is above what one would expect based on the big lefty batter’s minor league numbers. Per Minor League Splits, Jones’ work at AAA Indianapolis to begin to 2009 season translated to a .259/.291/.408 line at the highest level. His 2006-2008 translations are similarly bleak.

Performances at the extremes tend to skew the perception of a player. Jones’ incredible start likely had some running to the waiver wire to claim him, but his much larger body of work suggests that he’s more major league filler than some breakout performer.

Lastings Milledge, Pirates

Milledge has a clean slate in Pittsburgh, getting another opportunity to make good on the promise that made him a top prospect in the Mets system and a sought-after trade target of the Nationals. Thus far, it’s not working out very well. The 24 year-old has expanded his zone in the majors, walking just 6.6% of the time and swinging at nearly 32% of pitches off the plate), and he is hitting just .213/.259/.250 in 86 PA in 2009. Lastings’ walk rate under five percent. He’ll continue to get regular AB’s with the Pirates as they seek to rehabilitate his deteriorated plate approach, but it would be nice to see some sort of progress here.


Week 20 Two-Start Pitchers Update

Here is the latest update to Week 20 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

TOR – Romero
DET – Porcello
LAD – Haeger

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

DET – Verlander
TOR – Richmond
LAD – Jeff Weaver

Romero just finished a five-game stretch where he walked 14 batters in 28.2 innings and had a 5.65 ERA yet had a 3-2 record. In his last game he got a no-decision after allowing three runs in six IP versus the Yankees. Overall, an 80.5 percent strand rate has led to a 3.70 ERA compared to a 4.41 FIP. But Romero has been a bit unlucky with his HR/FB rate of 14.7 percent. Fortunately, he is a ground ball pitcher, with a 1.78 GB/FB ratio. That is the eighth highest GB ratio among qualified major league pitchers.

Porcello has a 3.81 ERA and a 1.288 WHIP in road starts this year compared to a 4.92 ERA and 1.528 WHIP in Comerica Park. Additionally, his SO/BB numbers are over twice as high on the road, where he sports a 2.29 mark in the category. This week he has both a home start (vs SEA) and a road game (at OAK). Porcello is 7-0 this year in games in which he has not allowed a HR. But he has allowed 17 HR this year and has a 16.7 HR/FB mark.

Haeger has allowed 26 BB in 34 IP in his brief major league career. This year the knuckleball specialist is 11-6 with a 3.55 ERA at Triple-A Albuquerque, where he is currently tied for the Pacific Coast League lead in wins and is eighth in ERA. He has a 3.61 BB/9 ratio this season in the PCL, continuing a trend of declining walk numbers one step beneath the majors. His walk numbers the previous three seasons in Triple-A: 2006 (4.13), 2007 (4.08) and 2008 (3.89).


Crowded at the Corners in Colorado

The outfield in Colorado is a little bit of a Crowded House, and at least one good player is probably wondering why the team is being “Mean to Me.” Brad Hawpe, despite his lack of any defensive skill whatsoever, is a rock in more than one sense of the word. He plays every day that he can, and should because he’s an important contributor on offense. The rest of the outfield? Not as easy to call.

In a way, it’s surprising that the team did not trade Ryan Spilborghs at the deadline because the 30-year-old is probably fifth on the outfield depth chart in Colorado. With a .351 career wOBA and passable defense even in center field (-2.1 UZR), he could fill a more important role on another team. He’s obviously the odd man out on a team that has needs elsewhere and is competing hard for the wild card.

There is some exciting play coming from the guys ahead of Spilborghs the depth chart. One thing seems obvious. Dexter Fowler has a lock on center field for the foreseeable future, and all of his flaws have simple corrections that seem to be in his reach. His defense has not been great as measured by UZR (-16.8 UZR/150), but most of that comes from a lack of range (-10.4 Range Runs), and a guy with a 7.5 speed score should seemingly post a better range soon. He also showed better range in the minors.

The other flaw is his strikeout rate, which is keeping him from entering elite status. Again, he had a strikeout rate closer to 20% in the minors than his 27.9% in the majors. Players often post higher strikeout rates in the majors, so perhaps this flaw will stay with Fowler his whole career. His strikeout rate has spiked in the minors before, though, and returned to normal so here’s a bet that it’s just Fowler learning the ropes and that he’ll be a .300-hitting average-fielding center fielder with power and speed before long.

But this was supposed to be a referendum on left field. Carlos Gonzalez, though boasting better defensive stats in center field (10.1 UZR/150) than Fowler, seems to be the team’s second option there. Instead, he’s battling it out with Seth Smith in left field, and they seemed to be mired in a bit of a strict platoon. With Smith’s career .764 OPS against lefties, he’s probably best served by sitting out against southpaws. Then again, Gonzalez is also a lefty, so this isn’t the perfect platoon.

Should Gonzalez be getting more playing time? He’s had 37 August at-bats to Smith’s 34, and he’s outperforming him in this small sample (1.093 OPS to Smith’s .697). Gonzalez has had a wildly oscillating strikeout rate in his minor league career (14.3% to 25.8%), but his major league strikeout rate has been stable at a high 26.6% level. The biggest change this year has been that CarGo has found his power again (.203 ISO) and also upped his walk rate to his minor league rate (8.9% this year, 7.5% in the minors). Added to a 4-component speed score (7.8) that would rank fourth in the league if he played more, and there’s an exciting picture being painted here.

With his recent play, CarGo’s physical tools seem to be winning out over Smiths’ slow and steady approach. Smith has a good idea of what he’s doing at the plate, with a high walk rate (12.5% career), low strikeout rate (18.7% career), nice power (.184 ISO career), and a good line drive rate (20.3%). He’s cut down on reaching for balls off the plate (18.6% this year, 21.9% career) and shown good advancement as a hitter. Other than a slow half-month, there’s not much to dislike about Smith. He’s even a plus defender in left field.

Because this is a team that’s still in it, it’s hard to handicap the playing time going forward this year. They’ll probably play the ‘hot hand,’ which means that CarGo has the short-term advantage. Long-term, though, all four (and possibly five) of these outfielders deserve major league jobs. A trade is the Rockies’ future, and probably should have been in their immediate past.


The A.L. Closer Report: 8/14

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Mo racked up two saves in three appearances this week, though he did give up a run against the Blue Jays on August 11th (Edwin Encarnacion hit a homer). The former Red’s round-tripper marked the first time that the opposition crossed home plate against Rivera since June 12th. He’s punching out 10.1 batters per nine innings, with 1.29 BB/9. Rivera’s 2.89 WPA is the 4th-best mark in the majors.

Joe Nathan, Twins

Joe gave up a run vs. Detroit on the 7th, but he bounced back to strike out the side against the Royals on the 12th (neither game was a save opportunity). Nathan’s K rate (11.75) is nearly two whiffs per nine higher than 2008’s mark (9.84), and he has lowered his walk rate to boot (2.39 BB/9 to 2.06 BB/9). His first-pitch strike percentage is 67.9, scores ahead of the 58.2% MLB average.

Joakim Soria, Royals

After seemingly forgetting that Soria was in the bullpen in early July, manager Trey Hillman has started to use the Mexicutioner (a former starter with a deep repertoire) to get six-out saves. Three of Soria’s last 5 save ops have been of the six-out variety, a refreshing change (in Hillman’s defense, Soria’s shoulder woes earlier in the season could have contributed to his usage). Joakim didn’t have a banner week, however. He was lit up on the 8th vs. the A’s, giving up dingers to Tommy Everidge and Mark Ellis. Soria did rebound against Minnesota yesterday, firing two scoreless innings.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Papelbon pitched 2.2 scoreless innings between two appearances on the 7th (Yankees) and the 10th (Detroit), but he gave up 2 runs against the Tigers on the 11th (including a HR to Curtis Granderson). Papelbon’s FIP (3.55) is well north of his 2.69 career average, as 50.8% of his pitches are crossing home plate (that’s down from 54.5% in ’08; Jon’s Zone% has dipped each season since 2006).

J.P. Howell, Rays

J.P. twiddled his thumbs this week: he hasn’t made an appearance since our last Closer Report. The former Royal (pilfered from K.C. in June of 2006 for excellent-car-jumper-but-bad-ball player Joey Gathright) has punched out 10.54 hitters per nine innings, with excellent secondary offerings (+1.72 runs/100 pitches for the curve, +5.08 runs/100 for the change) and a sneaky mid-80’s fastball (+0.96).

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

With his kidney stones issue mercifully behind him, Jenks pitched 3.2 scoreless frames this past week (one save vs. Seattle on the 11th). Bobby hasn’t allowed a run in August, a welcome change after a July that saw far too many fireworks for the opposition (8 runs in 7.1 IP). Jenks has rates of 8.55 K/9 and 2.48 BB/9, giving him a 3.55 XFIP. That’s lower than 2008’s 3.86 figure, despite Bobby’s 2009 ERA (3.83) being 1.2 runs higher than his 2008 mark (2.63).

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

Bailey was touched up in the second half of July, but has begun August well. Bailey notched two saves this week, with clean innings against the Royals on the 9th and the Orioles on the 12th. He hasn’t walked a batter over his past six innings, and has rates of 10.13 K/9 and 3.09 BB/9 for the season. Bailey throws plenty hard (94 MPH with his fastball), but he doesn’t fit the archetypal power reliever mold. The former starter uses his heater around 56% of the time, mixing in cutters over a quarter of the time and curveballs about 15 percent.

David Aardsma, Mariners

Aardsma collected a save against one of his former teams (the White Sox) on August 10th, but the Pale Hose pummeled him for 3 hits and 3 runs (including a HR to Alexei Ramirez) in a blown save op on the 11th. The 27 year-old right-hander continues to rack up K’s (10.53 K/9) and walks (5.09) by the bucketful. Safeco suppresses homer production, but Aardsma has been lucky to surrender a 2.9 HR/FB% this season.

In Control

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes got 2 saves this week, closing the door vs. Texas on August 8th and the Rays on the 10th. The lefty hasn’t had much success with his slider this season (-0.26 runs/100 pitches), which helps to explain a lower outside-swing% (23.5, 29.4% in 2008) and a higher rate of contact (79.7%, up from 73.4% in ’08).

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Watch out for: C.J. Wilson

Francisco appeared just once this week, picking up a save vs. the Indians yesterday (his 16th of the season). Frank’s frequent absences (he’s been on the DL three times in 2009) might have obscured the type of season that he’s having. The 6-3, 230 pound righty has whiffed 10.05 per nine innings, with 2.3 BB/9. The key has been a filthy 86 MPH splitter. The pitch was rarely successful in the past (-0.47 runs/100 value since 2002), but the splitter has a +4.65 figure in 2009. Francisco has increased his usage of the pitch, tossing it 19.1% of the time after throwing the split closer to 10% in past seasons.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Kerry has actually resembled the closer in the free agent catalogue this month. In 4 August frames, Wood has whiffed 4, while walking none and surrendering no runs. As Pitch F/X whiz Harry Pavlidis noted on The Hardball Times, the Texan has scrapped his slider in favor of a cutter in 2009. There hasn’t been anything wrong with his new toy (+0.48 runs/100 pitches with the cutter) or his 80 MPH curve. Wood’s 96 MPH fastball, however, is another story (-1.15 runs/100 pitches).

Jason Frasor, Blue Jays (Scott Downs back on the DL with a left big toe injury)

Returned to the closer’s role with Scott Downs nursing a toe injury, Frasor frazzled hitters with 2.2 innings of spotless pitching this week (including a save vs. the Yankees on August 10th). Frasor’s 3.36 K/BB ratio is the best of his career, an uptick keyed by a climb in outside-swing percentage (24.7% in ’09, 18.8% career average).

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Rodney got rocked August 7th vs. the Twins (3 H, 2 R), and got taken deep by Michael Cuddyer on the 9th while collecting a save. Fernando picked up another save yesterday afternoon vs. Boston as well. Rodney’s ERA (3.78) is well below 2008’s mark (4.91), though he’s not really pitching all that differently. His XFIP is 4.19 in ’09, which is actually higher than 2008’s 4.06.

Jim Johnson, Orioles

Johnson got two saves this week (one against Toronto on the 7th and another vs. Oakland on the 11th), tossing three innings of scoreless relief overall. He throws awfully hard (94.4 MPH), but that doesn’t necessarily translate to a ton of missed bats. Johnson’s whiffing 6.36 hitters per nine innings, with a 4.19 FIP. He won’t be a liability in the role (Johnson does a decent job of limiting the free passes and getting grounders). But, it’s also hard to call Johnson a big asset, as a middle reliever cast into a late-inning role in a cut-throat division.

Watch Your Back

No one, at the moment.


The N.L. Closer Report: 8/14

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Broxton really hasn’t been his typical dominant self since the All-Star break, as he has a 2.20 K/BB ratio since the mid-summer classic (3.82 K/BB prior). The 25 year-old blew a save op vs. the Braves on August 7th, chucked a clean inning against Atlanta the next night and then collected a save against San Francisco on the 10th (Bengie Molina took him deep). Perhaps Broxton’s toe injury is playing a part. Still, his overall numbers are sick: 13.24 K/9, with a 2.73 Win Probability Added.

Heath Bell, Padres

Heath had another successful week, collecting two saves in three innings without allowing a run. He failed to whiff a batter, a rarity given that Bell’s K rate (9.91) is well above his 8.19 mark during the 2008 season. The 6-3, 240 pound righty has dominated hitters with his 94 MPH fastball (+2.12 runs/100 pitches), as well as a pair of nasty breaking pitches (+1.24 runs/100 for the slider, +2.35 for the curve).

Huston Street, Rockies

Street started the week off well (a scoreless inning against the Cubs on the 7th), but Chicago then crushed the former Longhorn for 4 hits, 4 R and a walk in a 0.1-inning disaster appearance on the 10th. It was a rare blow-up for a guy who has posted rates of 10.41 K/9 and 2.12 BB/9, with a 2.26 WPA.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

With the Diamondbacks losing 4 of their last 6 (after winning their previous five games), Qualls didn’t see much action this week. He took the hill just once, and it did not end well: he struck out the side vs. the Mets on the 10th, but he was smacked for 3 hits and 2 runs in the process. On the whole, though, the former Astro is turning in a better year than his 3.66 ERA would suggest. His FIP is 2.87, as Qualls has just plain stopped walking people (0.96 BB/9 in 2009).

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Trevor pitched twice since our last Closer Report, firing a pair of clean frames vs. his long-time team. Hoffman punched out 2 Padres, without allowing a hit. The 41 year-old still hasn’t been taken deep this season, taking him up to 35 dingerless frames in 2009. While hitters aren’t chasing his stuff out of the zone (his 23.4 O-Swing% is about 9 pct. lower than in 2008), Hoffman’s mid-80’s fastball (+2.71 runs/100 pitches) and low-70’s changeup (+4.01 runs/100) are still producing excellent results.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

K-Rod has been more of an arsonist than a fireman as of late. Rodriguez endured a nightmarish appearance vs. the Padres on the 7th, getting flogged for 2 hits 5 R, 1 HR and 3 BB without retiring a single batter. He pitched a scoreless inning against San Diego on the 9th, but he was back to getting beat up against the D-Backs on the 12th (2 H and a R, though he did pick up the save, again proving that most Joe Blow relievers could convert 80-90% of save ops, too). The 27 year-old’s peripherals have been crumbling for years, and his 1.77 K/BB ratio is basically half of his rate with the Angels in 2006. K-Rod’s 0.54 WPA is just 3rd in the Mets ‘pen.

In Control

Rafael Soriano, Braves

Watch Out For: Mike Gonzalez

Soriano turned in a disaster piece outing vs. the Dodgers on the 6th (3 H and 3 R without retiring a batter, serving up a game-winning homer to Andre Ethier). Rafael pitched a scoreless inning the next night (no save), and then picked up his 17th SV of the year on the 8th (though he was touched up for a run). The pending free agent is punching out nearly 12 batters per nine innings, with a nasty 93 MPH fastball (+1.73 runs/100 pitches) and 83 MPH slider (+2.73 runs/100).

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson took a beating against the Reds on August 7th (2 hits, 4 R, 3 BB in a blown save op), but he did pick up a save vs. Cincy the next night and whiffed four batters in a 1.1-inning appearance against the Dodgers on the 12th. The 27 year-old is benefitting from a low HR/FB rate (4.3%), but he is pitching rather well with a career-best 2.75 K/BB ratio.

Jose Valverde, Astros

Valverde lost the strike zone during the last week of July (including 5 BB in a 2.1 inning stretch against the Cubs on the 27th and the 28th), but he appears to be back on track now. Valverde collected 2 saves this week, pitching 4 innings with 4 K’s, 0 runs and 1 walk allowed. Papa Grande’s percentage of pitches within the zone has taken a nose dive in recent years (from 59.2% in 2006 to 50.6% this year; the MLB average is 49.3%). Luckily, opposing batters are chasing more of those offerings off the dish (24.4% in 2006 to 32% this year; 25% MLB average).

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Walking the tight rope: Cordero coughed up 6 hits in 3 IP this week, but he Houdini’d his way out of all those base runners while allowing one run. He picked up 2 saves along the way. Co-Co’s peripherals for the season aren’t really all that special (7.35 K/9, 3.77 BB), but an 85.7% strand rate and a 4.5 HR/FB% have permitted him to escape many jams. Odds are, he won’t continue to be so fortunate in the future.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Franklin continues to make my head hurt. He’s enjoying a nice season, with 6.2 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9. But those aren’t the sort of numbers that one associates with a Gagne-like 1.20 ERA. Franklin has stranded 91.6% of runners put on base, with a .232 BABIP and a 4.5% HR/FB rate. He’s been an amazing value for those who drafted or picked him up, but the 36 year-old didn’t suddenly emerge as a shut-down, top-tier reliever. He’ll likely be overvalued next season.

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps kicked off the week with a superb 2-inning, 4 K appearance vs. Arizona on August 6th, but things would quickly turn sour for Pittsburgh’s embattled stopper. Capps blew a save against the Cardinals on the 7th (giving up 2 R without retiring a batter, with Skip Schumaker taking him out of the park), but that appearance looked downright effective compared to yesterday’s drubbing at the hands of the Rockies (0.2 IP, 4 H, 3 R).

Capps has the highest K rate of his career (8.52), but he has issued a career-worst 3.52 BB/9. It won’t do his owners much good, but there are reasons to think that Matt hasn’t been near as bad as that Ponson-esque 6.57 ERA. A .391 BABIP and an inflated HR/FB rate (14.5%) have damaged his season severely. Capps’ XFIP is 4.62. He’s never really been a relief ace: Capps’ XFIP has been in excess of four since 2006.

Watch Your Back

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Watch Out For: Ryan Madson

This just isn’t getting any better, is it? Lidge was leveled for 4 runs in 3 innings this week, including a blown save against the Cubs on the 11th. His control (5.36 BB/9) has been abominable, and his percentage of contact within the strike zone is up about 5 percentage points. Relief performance is subject to more year-to-year fluctuation, but it’s stunning to look at Lidge’s Wins Above Replacement totals from 2008 (2.2) and 2009 (-0.9). Who would have predicted that the best reliever in baseball last season would be less valuable than Chan Ho Park in 2009?

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol, John Grabow

Gregg notched a save against the Rockies on August 8th, but he took a loss against Philly on the 11th as he and Brad Lidge battled to see who could inflict more damage on their club’s chances of victory. His K/BB ratio (2.62) easily surpasses 2008’s mediocre 1.57 mark, but a 15.7 HR/FB% has assailed his season. Gregg’s XFIP (4.25) is actually the best figure he has posted since 2004.

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins

Watch Out For: Dan Meyer , Leo Nunez

Lindstrom (elbow) is off the DL, but Nunez nonetheless took three save chances (and converted each) this past week. The job is still ostensibly Lindstrom’s, but Matt will have to avoid those car wreck appearances that have come to define his 2009 season. On that front, it was a bad week for the former Mets prospect: 2.1 IP, 5 H, 4 R and a homer surrendered. A .365 BABIP certainly isn’t helping, but Lindstrom is issuing 5.4 BB/9.

His fastball has declined by over 2 runs per 100 pitches compared to 2008 (+1.08 runs/100 pitches in ’08, -1.07 in ’09). Some of that is the inflated BABIP (those extra hits falling in hurt him in the linear weights formula), but when the pitch that you throw three-quarters of the time isn’t working, you have problems.

Mike MacDougal, Nationals

The Nationals reeled off a stunning 8-game winning streak in which MacDougal racked up 5 saves, but the club has since dropped 3 in a row. If you take a very cursory look at the former Royal and White Sock’s season, you might think he’s pitching well (3.74 ERA, 11 for 12 in save ops). However, Mac has been an honorary member of the Mike Williams/Joe Borowski Closer Club, with an abysmal 17/26 K/BB ratio in 33.2 IP. His XFIP is 5.21.


Interesting Week 20 Two-Start Pitchers

It is a three Hernandez and two Martinez week! Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 20

Fausto Carmona – Since returning from the minors, Carmona has pitched well, with a 2.65 ERA in three starts. But he has allowed more walks (10) than strikeouts (7), his WHIP checks in at 1.588 and his record is 0-1. If those are the numbers he puts up when he is pitching well, what happens with a bad outing or two? Leave him on the bench for his two starts this week.

Manny Parra – It is tough to win games with a 1.84 WHIP yet that is exactly what Parra is doing. He has won his last four starts despite a 6.48 ERA. Unless you are desperate for wins, they are simply not worth the ratios. And with those ratios there is little chance that the wins will continue to follow.

Oliver Perez – Before being sent to the minors, Perez had a 9.97 ERA in five games. Since returning he has posted a 3.72 ERA in seven games. With Perez you are sure of two things: his WHIP is going to be terrible and he is going to pile up strikeouts (38 in 38.2 IP in his last seven games). His ERA has been acceptable since returning so the wild card is his wins total. In his last three starts he left the game with the lead only to see the bullpen blow wins for him. Perez does well against lefty-heavy lineups and this week he faces the Braves and the Phillies. He has won six of 10 career decisions versus Atlanta and Philadelphia features lefty swingers Utley, Howard and Ibanez. Put him in your lineup this week if you can take the WHIP damage.

David Price – The HR rate has really hurt Price this season, especially on the road. He has allowed 13 HR this year and nine of those have come away from Tropicana Field. In home games, Price is 5-1 with a 2.72 ERA and a 1.286 WHIP. Make sure he is active this week with home starts against Baltimore and Texas.

Scott Richmond – Before going to the disabled list with shoulder tendinitis, Richmond was pitching his best ball of the season, going seven or more innings in his last three starts before hitting the DL. His first start back was rough and then he allowed 3 ER in 6 IP his last outing in Yankee Stadium. Richmond has a tough start versus Josh Beckett this week, but I still like him as a two-start pitcher this week with his two home games.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 20 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Lincecum, Beckett, F. Hernandez, Burnett, Verlander, Carpenter, Jimenez, Nolasco, Lowe, Hanson, Buehrle, Dempster, Scherzer, Billingsley, E. Santana, Feldman, Hunter, Norris, Liriano, Pavano, Garland, P. Martinez, Lilly, Bannister, Correia, L. Hernandez, Villanueva, Hart, Bailey, Mazzaro, D. Hernandez, Bell, Jef Weaver, Boggs, J. Martinez, Stammen, Carrillo, Berken.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 18 and how they did.

Baker – Advised to start. W, 4.76 ERA, 7 Ks, 1.15 WHIP (2 starts)
Latos – Advised to start. 2 W, 2.08 ERA, 10 Ks, 1.15 WHIP (2)
Morton – Advised to start. 4.09 ERA, 5 Ks, 1.55 WHIP (2)
Penny – Advised to sit. 7.50 ERA, 5 Ks, 1.33 WHIP (1)
Wells – Advised to sit. W, 4.26 ERA, 8 Ks, 1.42 WHIP (2)