A new innovation has hit the fantasy sports world. An article in the Wall Street Journal by Nando Di Fino details the debut this year of Fantasy Sports Insurance (FSI) which “offers the fantasy owner the ability to recoup league fees and all other related costs if one of their star players falls to an injury and misses the bulk of the season.”

FSI is starting off this year with football, but has plans to expand to other fantasy sports, including baseball.

The idea began with last year’s Week One injury to Tom Brady, one of the first players picked in fantasy football drafts in 2008. Brady was out for the remainder of the season and his injury sunk the hopes of many fantasy teams. For 2009, FSI (with the help of Lloyd’s of London) is offering insurance for the top 50 players in the NFL.

Owners have three options on how to insure their players. Two of these involve coverage on one person while a third choice offers protection if three players combine to miss 15 games.

The cost of the coverage depends mainly on entry fees and transaction fees for the individual league, although other expenses factor into the equation.

Most people who I have talked with about this idea have had the same reaction, which basically amounts to, “Wish I had thought of it first!”

It seems like an idea perfectly tailored for fantasy football, where season-ending injuries early in the season seem like an annual occurrence. But will it transfer to fantasy baseball? Plenty of season-ending injuries happen in baseball, but most of those happen later in the season.

Also, as fantasy players, do we really want another dilemma? It is hard enough with the fantasy team versus real team conflict that we all face. Our fantasy team pitcher is going up against our favorite team – which side are we on?

If the fantasy insurance idea takes off, we will be faced with the possibility of rooting for an injured player to not make it back. Instead of checking RotoTimes for news of rehab assignments, we will instead be hoping for visits to see Dr. James Andrews, which will enable us to cash an insurance check and salvage our entrance fee.

Do you think the FSI idea is a good one or bad one? Do you see it succeeding in fantasy baseball? Would you consider purchasing it for any particular player? Please weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.

Monday night ESPN televised the Tigers-Angels game. Veteran baseball man (and current ESPN Baseball Today co-host) Peter Pascarelli joined Joe Morgan and Jon Sciambi in the booth for a couple of innings. Pascarelli came across well – he had a good voice and brought some opinions to the table. But one thing he said jumped out at me.

Pascarelli was talking about Angels reliever Jose Arredondo and mentioned that a drop in velocity was leading to his disappointing season.

In 2008, Arredondo averaged 93.7 with his fastball and this year his average is down to 92.2 – a noticeable drop and one which seemingly supports Pascarelli’s assertion. Pitch Type Values show Arredondo’s fastball being a plus pitch in 2008 and slightly below average this season. Last year Arredondo had a wFB/C of 1.55 while this year it sits at minus 0.07.

Now, that is unquestionably a noticeable difference. A wFB/C of 1.55 would rank as a Top 20 mark this season for relievers. But is it enough to explain how Arredondo went from a 10-2, 1.62 ERA in 2008 to a 1-3, 5.97 ERA this season? Especially since he averaged 93.94 with his four-seam fastball Monday night, topped out at 95.3 and gave up four runs?

Since Arredondo is a reliever, we are dealing with small samples. Last year he pitched in 61 innings and this year he has just 34.2 through Monday night’s game. However, there is much less difference between the two seasons if we simply examine his FIP. In 2008 Arredondo had a 3.10 FIP compared to a 3.77 mark this season.

When Arredondo came out of nowhere to put up his outstanding 2008 season, he enjoyed a great deal of good fortune. His BABIP was .250 while he posted an 82.2 percent strand rate. And his FIP may have even been underestimating his fortune, as he had a HR/FB rate of 5.8 percent last year.

Flash forward to this season and we see the exact opposite in Arredondo’s fortune. Now he has a .373 BABIP and a 64.8 percent strand rate. And his HR/FB rate has more than doubled to its current 12.5 percent, or slightly above-average rate.

Perhaps Pascarelli is right and Arredondo’s poor season is due to his drop in velocity. Or maybe it was just regression. Either way, smart fantasy owners avoided him on Draft Day and are happy with that decision, even with Arredondo’s increase of two strikeouts per nine innings over a season ago.

It is never too late to improve your team! Here are five players available on the waiver wire under certain thresholds, according to the numbers at CBS Sports, who could be assets for your squad for the remainder of the season.

Under 40 Percent Owned

Jason Hammel (30%) – Hammel’s overall numbers do not suggest a pitcher who is a worthwhile fantasy option. But this is the classic case of a pitcher to plug into the lineup depending on circumstances and as you might guess for a Rockies pitcher, activate him when he is on the road. This year in home starts, Hammel has 2 W, 7.02 ERA, 35 Ks and a 1.920 WHIP. Meanwhile, away from Coors Field, he has 6 W, 2.88 ERA, 52 Ks and a 1.227 WHIP.

Under 30 Percent Owned

Kyle Blanks (24%) – Power is one of the hardest things to find on the waiver wire so it is refreshing to see someone who is in the lineup virtually on a full-time basis who carries a .247 ISO. Since the All-Star break, Blanks has a .284/.392/.608 slash line in 120 PA. He has 9 HR, 17 RBI and 20 R in 35 games (28 starts) in the second half.

Under 20 Percent Owned

Lastings Milledge (19%) – In a very small sample of 83 PA, Milledge has been decent since returning to the majors with the Pirates. And those numbers would be better if they did not include a 1-for-15 trip to the Windy City. Milledge can hit a few HR and notch a few SB down the stretch and not kill you in AVG. He is an everyday outfielder on the waiver wire with some upside.

Under 10 Percent Owned

Luis Valbuena (3 %) – In the second half of the season, Valbuena has a .298/.365/.521 line in 104 PA. He has 13 RBIs and 17 R in that span, which covers 27 games (25 starts). Currently, Valbuena is riding a 7-game hitting streak and he has 3 HR in that stretch. The 23-year old hails from Venezuela and was acquired by the Indians from the Mariners in the three-team trade this past winter. In the deal Cleveland also picked up Joe Smith from the Mets and dealt away Franklin Gutierrez.

Is This Guy Really on the Waiver Wire?

Rajai Davis (47%) – He has very little power but Davis is a big-time SB threat who hits for a good AVG. Since settling in as the A’s starting center fielder, Davis has a .344 AVG with 16 RBIs, 17 R and 14 SB in his last 25 games. For the year he has a .344 BABIP but he also has a 21.1 percent LD rate. The Dutton/Carty xBABIP Quick Calculator gives him an xBABIP of .319 for the season.

Rocktober may well return in 2009. Following a dramatic 14-inning win over the San Francisco Giants last night, Colorado holds a four-game lead in the Wild card standings. That’s not insurmountable by any means, but Baseball Prospectus’ Postseason Odds Report gives the club a 75 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Once adjusting for the run-inflating nature of Coors, Colorado’s offense has been decidedly middle-of-the pack (they rank 7th in the NL in Park-Adjusted Batting Runs, at a collective -7 compared to the league average). The team’s D hasn’t exactly been sterling, either, placing 28th in team UZR. Rather, it’s the pitching that’s keeping the Rockies in the running. Colorado’s starters have authored a 3.92 FIP, 5th in the N.L. Once again adjusting for the environment of their home ball park, Colorado ranks 1st in the NL in starting pitching runs above average, at +146.5.

The man leading the charge is 25 year-old Ubaldo Jimenez. In his first full year in the rotation in 2008, Jimenez showed a world of promise, though also a maddening tendency to lose the strike zone. The Dominican Republic native (signed back in 2001) punched out 7.79 batters per nine innings, while also causing the opposition to chop the ball into the dirt with great frequency (54.4 GB%). He did, however, issue 4.67 BB/9 in his 198.2 frames of work.

In 2009, Jimenez has taken his pitching to a different level. The punch outs (7.95 K/9) and grounders (52 GB%) remain, but his walk rate has been pared down to 3.41 per nine innings. That fact that Ubaldo has managed to increase his K rate while facing fewer hitters per inning (4.5 batters faced per inning in ’08, 4.18 in ’09) is very impressive. His percentage of PA ending in a strikeout has risen from 19.8 in 2008 to 21.1 this season.

Everything Ubaldo throws is working in ’09. Everyone knows about the 6-4 righty’s searing fastball velocity (his 96 MPH average is tops in the majors). However, he is far more than a one-trick pony. That fastball has been worth +0.66 runs above average per 100 tosses, but Jimenez’s wicked 86 MPH slider (+2.17 runs/100), 77 MPH curveball (+0.56) and hard 87 MPH changeup/splitter (+2.12) are causing plenty of hitters to return to the dugout, grumbling and wondering just how they’re supposed to hit this guy.

Jimenez doesn’t appear to receive a whole lot of love nationally (though outdueling Tim Lincecum on Sunday will surely help), but he is establishing himself as one of the premier starters in the National League.

Ubaldo can flummox batters with any of four above-average-to-plus pitches. He possesses strong groundball tendencies, which certainly can’t hurt in a hazardous pitching venue (grounders may yield a higher BABIP than flyballs, but those flyballs that aren’t caught are typically extra base hits and yield a far higher slugging percentage; that’s why all things being equal, groundball-centric pitchers are preferable). And now, his control appears to have taken a step forward.

Jimenez is an ace, and one can make a case that he’s the best starter in the pitching-rich NL West not named “Haren” or “Lincecum.”

Divisional races are heating up, both in the fantasy world and MLB standings. It’s time to bear down and make that final push toward the playoffs. With that in mind, let’s check out some fantasy links…

Brandon Funston of Yahoo! Sports puts a fantasy spin on John Smoltz’s impressive return to the National League. “St. Louis pitching coach Dave Duncan has been known to work magic with reclamation projects and I think Smoltz still has plenty to offer,” Funston writes. “His upcoming schedule sets up nicely, with Washington and Pittsburgh next on his starting agenda.”

Brian L. Schubert of Fantasy Baseball Cafe joins the ogling of Rangers reliever Neftali Feliz. Setup men don’t often carry much fantasy value, but a 21-year-old who posts a 0.63 ERA, 0.35 WHIP and 19/1 K/BB ratio in his first 14-plus major league innings clearly deserves attention from all realms of the sport.

Rotoworld’s Matthew Pouliot checks out some potential September call-ups both in the American League and Nationals League. Keep an eye out for Milwaukee’s Mat Gamel, Atlanta’s Jason Heyward and San Diego’s Aaron Poreda. It’s sometimes surprising how much of an impact these guys can have.

In desperate need of steals? Aren’t we all? Charlie Saponara of FantasyBaseball365.com runs down some potential September call-ups who boast fantasy-worthy wheels. The Rockies’ Eric Young Jr., Oakland’s Eric Patterson and Cleveland’s Michael Brantley top the list.

Ray Flowers of BaseballGuys.com takes a deeper look at “The Resurgence of Barry Zito.” As Flowers notes, over the last 30 days, Zito “has a 2.51 ERA, the 10th best mark in baseball and better than guys like Jon Lester (2.70), Johan Santana (3.19) and CC Sabathia (3.35).” FanGraphs’ own Erik Manning delivered a post on Zito late last week.

R.J. White of AOL Fanhouse takes note of Ryan Zimmerman’s recent hot streak. The Washington third baseman has posted a .359 average, .512 on-base percentage and .781 slugging percentage in the month August, with seven homers, 15 RBI and 15 runs scored. White suggests Zimmerman could be a top-25 player heading into next season.

Have a fantasy-relevant link you think others should see? Or simply have a question or comment? Shoot me an e-mail or hit me up on Twitter.

Here is the latest update to Week 21 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

HOU – Rodriguez
STL – Pineiro
CHC – Zambrano

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

CHC – Harden

Rodriguez has won seven of his last eight decisions. In that span he has a 2.38 ERA with 23 BB and 63 SO in 72 IP. For the season, Rodriguez’ FIP is nearly a run higher than his ERA due to an 81 percent strand rate. One thing to keep in mind about Rodriguez is that he pitches much better at home despite Minute Maid Park being a hitter-friendly place. Rodriguez is 7-2 with a 1.73 ERA at home compared to a 5-5, 4.21 road mark. Both of the starts for Rodriguez are on the road.

Pineiro and his major league leading 61.1 percent ground ball rate have two home starts this week. After opening the season 6-9, Pineiro is 6-0 over his last nine starts and he pitched well enough to win two other times in that span. Even with his puny SO rate, Pineiro is a must-start now in all leagues, and the two starts this week is a nice bonus.

Zambrano has been on the disabled list with an injured back but is slated to be activated Tuesday following a minor league rehab start where he pitched five scoreless innings and notched five strikeouts. Before landing on the DL, Zambrano was 3-0 in his last five starts with a 2.93 ERA and 26 SO in 27.2 IP. Zambrano has home starts this week against the Nationals and Mets, the two bottom teams in the National League East.

Stock Up

Joe Mauer, Twins

I know, everyone reading this site is well aware of Mr. Mauer’s exploits this season. But as Dave Cameron recently noted, we’re entering historic territory here; Joe could be having the best offensive season of any backstop, ever.

The 26 year-old with the silky-smooth lefty swing has performed like a Ted Williams/Josh Gibson hybrid, batting an unfathomable .378/.449/.638, with a .457 wOBA. Despite not making his 2009 debut until May 1st, Mauer has accumulated 6.6 Wins Above Replacement. That leads all major league players. That’s like a sprinter giving his competition a head start, and then dusting them all anyway, running the last quarter of the race backwards for kicks.

I’m not going to delve too deeply into MVP voting philosophy here-the reason for an ostensibly individual award being tethered to team performance has always evaded me. Should we penalize Mauer for not being able to put Delmon Young on base via telekinesis? But, here’s a quick Mauer/Teixeira comparison, with their respective ranks in WAR among hitters:

Mauer: 6.6 WAR, 1st
Teixeira: 4.1 WAR, 24th

Chris Carpenter, Cardinals

Carp essentially didn’t pitch the past two seasons, yet he has returned with a vengeance in 2009. He has been fortunate with a .268 BABIP and a 5.8 HR/FB%, but even when one corrects for those numbers, the 34 year-old is among the very best in the game. In 145.2 IP, Carpenter owns a 3.38 XFIP (based on a pitcher’s walks, strikeouts and a normalized HR/FB rate). Only Lincecum, Vazquez and Haren can top that mark in the NL.

Carpenter does everything that one desires from a starter: he misses a decent amount of bats (6.86 K/9), is extremely stingy with the walks (1.42 BB/9) and wages a ground-based assault on opposing batters (54.7 GB%). Everything in Carp’s bag of tricks is working: his 93 MPH fastball (+2.13 runs/100 pitches), 87 MPH slider/cutter (+1.89 runs/100) and 75 MPH curve (+1.82) give hitters fits.

Matt LaPorta, Indians

What’s a guy got to do to get a promotion around here? LaPorta (the centerpiece of last summer’s Sabathia blockbuster with Milwaukee) posted a robust .299/.380/.530 at AAA Columbus. The 6-2 right-handed batter worked the count well (11.1 BB%), lowered his whiff rate (16.6%) and also posted a .231 ISO. Yet, LaPorta received only a small cameo with the big club earlier in the year. Manager Eric Wedge also made some mildly alarming comments about the slugger back in April:

“LaPorta is so young, just out of college. He’s off to a good start, and his day will come.” (Ohio.com)

Why is that alarming? Well, 1). LaPorta is 24 years old, 2). he’s a polished hitter out of the University of Florida, and 3). he was a senior sign, as an injury during his junior season caused him to slip in the draft, and 4). LaPorta has a career .291/.384/.557 line in the minors. That profile looks about as major league-ready as possible.

LaPorta’s ultimate position has yet to be determined, but he should provide plenty in the secondary skills department (walks and power) for Cleveland and fantasy owners alike.

Charlie Haeger, Dodgers

Perhaps more than any other sport, baseball features an eclectic mix of human beings. Within the confines of one clubhouse, you may well find a guy tall enough to play power forward in the NBA, and another who couldn’t scrape the “You Must Be This Tall To Ride” sign at an amusement park. There are ivy-league educated players, guys signed out of Latin America at age 16 and Far East Imports. That clubhouse likely has a bonus baby with a seven-figure bank account, and a minor league journeyman used to crashing at Motel 8’s and chowing down on peanut butter sandwiches.

In short, baseball is a sport full of atypical people. And flutterball specialists have a special place in the hears of most fans. Haeger, a former White Sox prospect who also briefly appeared with the Padres, has made two pretty successful starts for the Dodgers. The soon-to-be 26 year-old did posted a 4.67 FIP at AAA Albuquerque, and has allowed 3 runs with a 9/4 K/BB with the Dodgers in 14 frames. For more on Haeger, check out Erik Manning’s post here.

Matt Holliday, Cardinals

So much for the whole..”can’t hit outside of Coors” thing. Holliday has long been a quality hitter, cozy home ballpark or no. He posted an average of +41.8 Batting Runs per season from 2006-2008 (that’s park-adjusted), and his obscene hitting with the Cardinals has boosted his 2009 Batting Runs total to 28.6. He’ll likely finish the season somewhere around +35 to +37 Batting Runs, pretty close to his production in the sudsy wonderland of the Rockies. The pending free agent is a superstar, no matter where he plays his ball games.

Stock Down

Kyle Lohse, Cardinals

Lohse did not appear fully healthy upon returning from a forearm strain. He was blasted for.320/.353/.547 opponent line in August, and now heads back to the DL with a groin strain. In the first year of a 4-year, $41 M deal, Lohse has provided 0.8 WAR ($3.7 M worth of value). The Cardinals have to hope he’ll bounce back, as Kyle is owed about $8.9M in 2010 and roughly $11.9M in both 2011 and 2012.

Alfonso Soriano, Cubs

There’s a laundry list of reasons as to why the Cubs currently have less than a 1-in-17 chance of making the playoffs. Aramis Ramirez and Geovany Soto suffered injuries. Milton Bradley’s power was abducted by aliens on the way to Wrigley. The mileage on Big Z’s arm at a young age appears to be making him increasingly fragile.

Soriano’s sordid 2009 season has contributed to the mess as well. After posting wOBA’s of .380 and .374 during his first two seasons with the Cubs, Soriano has fallen off a cliff to .313 this year. Some of that dip might be poor luck on balls put in play- Soriano’s BABIP is .278, and according to this expected BABIP calculator, Alfonso’s BABIP “should” be around .305.

That still doesn’t fully explain Soriano’s season, though. His HR/FB% has fallen from 17.1% in 2008 to 11.4% in 2009. He’s still hitting fastballs well (+0.67 runs/100 pitches), though not at his usual prolific level (+1.93 career). However, Soriano has posted negative run values (curves and changeups have been particularly poisonous) against every other pitch except for cutters.

Soriano will make $18 million annually from 2010-2014, his age 34-38 seasons. If a win above replacement is worth roughly $4.5M on the free agent market, then Alfonso must produce a full 4 WAR per season for the Cubs to break even on the exchange. Color me skeptical that he’ll come anywhere near that level.

Michael Bowden, Red Sox

Bowden’s placement here isn’t really about his debacle of a relief appearance against the Yankees on August 21st (though I’m sure he would like to erase the 2-inning, 7 R disaster from his memory bank, Men In Black-style). Rather, it’s about his larger body of work in the minors this season.

The 2005 supplemental first-rounder wreaked havoc on batters in a 2008 season split between AA Portland and AAA Pawtucket (144.1 IP, 8.1 K/9, 1.8 BB/9), but 2009 has been more of a shrug-inducing effort. That’s not to say that Bowden has been bad, but his numbers with the Paw Sox (115.1 IP, 6.4 K/9, 3.4 BB/9) are a little underwhelming.

The 6-3, 215 pound righty has a quality curve and changeup, but he tends to use a fastball of modest velocity and movement up in the zone. That leads to boat loads of flyballs- Bowden’s GB% in AAA was just 31 percent. An extreme flyball pitcher, in the AL, is going to need more than average control to perform well (Bowden’s Major League Equivalent FIP in his time with Pawtucket was 5.13).

John Lannan, Nationals

Lannan’s ERA in 2008 (3.91) was considerably lower than his XFIP (4.47), and he has outdone his XFIP again this season (4.03 ERA, 4.74 XFIP). However, the gap is closing, with the lefty getting drubbed for 19 runs in 18 August frames. He has issued 11 walks, while punching out nine batters.

The 24 year-old boasts above-average control (2.97 BB/9 in 2009) and groundball tendencies (51.3 GB%). However, his strikeout rate has dipped from slightly below average in 2008 (5.79 K/9) to an untenable 3.75 per nine frames. Compared to last season, hitters are chasing fewer of his pitches (26.1% in ’08, 21.3% in ’09; 25% MLB avg.) and are making more contact (83.1 contact% in ’08, 89% in ’09; 80.6% MLB avg). He’s certainly a serviceable back-rotation hurler, but Lannan is more of a 4.50 ERA+ guy than the high-3, low 4 ERA pitcher that we have seen so far.

Alex Gordon, Royals

The ethics of service time manipulation has become a hot topic of late. We have seen potential “Super Two” players down the road (guys with more than two but less than three years of service time, in the top 17% of service time among players in the class) being kept down until the financial coast is clear (think Travis Snider) and other established young vets like J.J. Hardy being farmed out in order to push back free agency by a year.

Gordon falls into the discussion now. By sending the former Nebraska star back to AAA, the Royals delay Gordon’s free agency by a season. While the timing is awfully convenient, the 25 year-old has endured a nightmarish season. He missed a considerable chunk of the year following hip surgery, and has posted a paltry .290 wOBA in 110 PA. He often rolled over on the ball, hitting grounders at a 51.5% clip. Gordon was supposed to be a star by now, and he appeared to make progress in 2008 by upping his walk rate considerably. He’s no sure-fire stud anymore, but I don’t think it’s time to write him off, either.

Seen on the face of things, this has not been a great season for Clay Buchholz. Neither his 3.99 ERA nor his 1.70 WHIP is attractive. He’s striking out a minuscule 5.63 batters per nine, which is especially disconcerting given his double-digit minor league strikeout rates. He’s walking 4.7 batters per nine, too. So why the renewed enthusiasm for the young pitcher in some circles?

First, his luck has never been even average in the past two years. Consider that his BABIP allowed for the past two seasons has been .366 and .328 respectively, this despite giving up 20.9% and 17.6% line drive rates in those two seasons. That last line drive rate could even be considered a good one.

To continue the “he’s better than he looks” theme, Clay’s velocity is still on it’s way up, and has increased in all three of his major league seasons. All of his offspeed stuff has rated positively in our linear weight system, and his fastball is improving. Buchholz has also had a good groundball rate that has gotten better progressively.

In fact, Keith Law addressed many of these positives in Buchholz’s game with one question and answer on his August 14 chat on ESPN.com:

Brian (MA)
Is Buchholz’s high gb% this year real? Seems to me his fastball has more sink to it this year, but was wondering your thoughts after seeing him in person.

Keith Law
I only saw one outing but I could believe it. His arm slot was a little lower and his fastball had more life than I’d seen in the past (and it was harder – 92-96).

Reading something like this, and taking into account his last 19 innings, in which he’s given up four earned runs, and had 33 groundballs to 18 flyballs, it seems obvious that we have to consult Pitch F/x to see if something has indeed changed recently.

His arm slot is certainly lower. Compare the release points from this game chart for the August 13 matchup with the Tigers to the same release points from the game chart for his July 22 matchup with the Rangers and you’ll see clearly that his release point is lower.

His usage rate on the fastball has also gone up this year. There might be two schools of thought here. If his offspeed stuff is so good, why use the fastball more? The other is more developmental: if he is to be a good pitcher someday, he’ll have to establish that fastball. At 94 MPH with more horizontal movement this year (up over an inch), Buchholz’ fastball seems to be gaining steam. Perhaps the second school has it correctly.

One thing comes clear if you look at the movement and velocity charts for this pitcher. This is not a complete product. Just look at all the movement changes (every pitch gained or lost around an inch of movement either horizontally or vertically from 2008 to 2009) and the velocity changes (again, every pitch gained almost a mile per hour from 2008 to 2009) and you’ll see that he is still in flux.

Consider his slider. Last year, he showed a 79.8 MPH slider with 0.9 inches of horizontal movement and 5.1 inches of vertical movement. This year that same slider is 84 MPH and has 2.4 inches of horizontal movement and 0.9 inches of vertical movement. Perhaps we are still waiting to see the real Clay Buchholz.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Rivera just keeps rolling along, with 7 saves and 1 run allowed in 8.2 August frames. Mo slammed the door on the Mariners on August 15th and the A’s on the 19th. Mo’s 3.20 Win Probability Added places second among all relievers, and he boasts a 57/8 K/BB ratio in 52 innings pitched.

Joe Nathan, Twins

Mr. Nathan was hit with a comebacker this past week, but he says that he’s just fine. He chucked three innings without surrendering a run, racking up saves on the 18th and the 19th vs. the Rangers. The 34 year-old has turned in a remarkable season, with 11.76 K/9 and 2.12 BB/9. Nathan’s 32.4 O-Swing% is well above the 25% MLB average, with his 94 MPH fastball (+2.35 runs/100 pitches thrown), 88 MPH slider (+2.71) and 82 MPH curve (+3.38) causing all sorts of issues for hitters.

Joakim Soria, Royals

With Soria’s shoulder woes apparently in the past, the Royals have taken to using their closer for six-out saves (3 of Joakim’s last 6 saves ops have been of the two-inning variety). The Rule V gem worked another six-out stint vs. Detroit in a non-save situation on the 16th, then locked down his 20th save of the season against the White Sox on the 18th. The former starter has gradually mixed in his strong secondary offerings more often: his percentage of fastballs thrown has gone from 77.2% in 2007 to 66.6% in 2009.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Papelbon is having an awfully strange season. On the one hand, he leads all relievers in Win Probability Added (+3.70), as he has often escaped jams in high-leverage situations. On the other, he’s walking nearly 4 batters per nine innings (3.98 BB/9), compared to a career rate of 2.43 walks per nine frames. Jonathan got a save against Toronto on August 18th, but not before issuing three walks and allowing 2 hits in 1.1 IP. With fewer pitches hitting the mark, opponents have cut their percentage of pitches swung at from 55.6% in 2008 to 48.6% in 2009 (45.1% MLB average).

J.P. Howell, Rays

Howell has served up three dingers this month, with 5 walks, 6 H and 4 R in 8 innings pitched. He did manage two saves this week (his 13th and 14th), and J.P.’s 69/22 K/BB for the year remains stellar. How is Howell so tough to hit? Well, he’s certainly not giving anything away with his release point. Check out his release chart from an August 16th appearance against the Blue Jays:

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks served up another jimmy jack this week, getting taken deep by Oakland’s Mark Ellis in a loss on August 16th. He did collect two saves, closing out games against the Royals on the 17th and the 19th. Bobby’s peripherals are actually much stronger this year than in 2008: his K rate has jumped from 5.55 to 8.52 per nine innings, while lowering his walk rate from 2.48 to 2.28. However, a .307 BABIP and a big ol’ 15.8 HR/FB% have made his 2009 ERA (3.74) appear far worse than 2008’s mark (2.63). Keep that in mind for next year’s draft, as Jenks hasn’t really declined and could be had at a bargain price.

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

Bailey pitched three times this week, with a scoreless inning against the White Sox on August 14th and the 16th (neither was a save op, though he picked up a W on the 16th), then notching a save against the Yankees on the 18th. The 25 year-old rookie has been very sharp this month, with 5 K’s, zero walks, 0 runs and 1 hit allowed in 6 IP. Bailey is approaching the 2.0 Wins Above Replacement mark, currently sitting at 1.9 WAR.

David Aardsma, Mariners

Aardsma’s August has conjured up some memories of the explosive work that caused him to bounce from San Francisco, to both sides of Chicago, to Boston and finally to Seattle. He has coughed up 6 runs in 6.1 IP, with 5 walks and 2 HR allowed. The extreme fly ball pitcher (his 56 FB% is the 3rd-highest among relievers) was bound to surrender a few big flies eventually (his HR/FB% remains at a teensy 4.0). The former first-rounder out of Rice has surely been a nice pickup for the M’s, but his XFIP (4.42) is considerably higher than his 2.43 ERA.

In Control

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes was awfully busy this week, appearing four times. He got three saves (two vs. Baltimore, one vs. Cleveland), but he did blow a chance against the O’s as well. His 2009 strikeout rate (8.42 batters per nine innings) is well below his career mark of 10.07 K/9. The culprit would appear to be a less effective breaking ball. Fuentes’ slider was worth +2.06 runs/100 pitches in 2008, but a paltry -0.66 runs/100 in his first year with the Angels.

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Watch out for: C.J. Wilson

On August 14th, Francisco endured the sort of apocalyptic appearance that can torch a reliever’s entire season line. Frank was fried for 7 hits, 6 runs and a homer in just 0.2 IP, jet-propelling his ERA from 2.01 to 3.66. He did settle down in subsequent outings, with two scoreless save ops (Boston on the 16th, Minnesota on the 17th). Francisco has a strong 40/8 K/BB in 34 IP.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Kerry tossed two innings this past week, whiffing four, walking two and allowing a run. Wood’s 4.13 XFIP isn’t as ugly as his 4.71 ERA, as a big uptick in his HR/FB rate has harmed the Texan (15.6% in 2009). Still, Wood’s WPA remains in negative territory (-0.34), and batters just plain aren’t chasing his stuff. The former Cub garnered outside swings 31.3% of the time in ’08, but just 19.3% in ’09.

Jason Frasor, Blue Jays (Scott Downs back on the DL with a left big toe injury)

Frasor notched a save against the Rays on August 14th, then pitched another scoreless frame vs. Boston on the 18th (he did walk 2 in the non-save op, though). The diminutive right-hander has certainly had plenty of bounces go his way this year, with a .256 BABIP and a 1.9 HR/FB%. Frasor’s 4.02 XFIP more than doubles his 1.87 ERA.

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Fernando took a loss against the Royals on August 16th, then picked up a save against the Mariners on the 18th. He has induced plenty of groundballs this season (56.6 GB%, 10 percentage points above his career average), though control often remains elusive (4.25 BB/9). Somehow, opposing batters have a 9 percent line drive rate against Rodney. That’s the lowest rate among all relievers.

Jim Johnson, Orioles

Baltimore’s new stopper tossed three scoreless innings in two appearances this week, though neither was a save opportunity. There’s nothing in particular that wows you about the 26 year-old right-hander, but he has increased his Outside-Swing% from 23.3% in 2008 to 26.1% in 2009, while lowering his contact rate from 86.7% to 80.2%. He’s keeping his infielders busy (52.1 GB%), and has a 2.17 K/BB ratio. Not great, but he’ll manage to get three outs before the opposition scores 1-3 runs most of the time (as would many other relievers).

Watch Your Back

No one, at the moment.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 21

Bronson Arroyo – In his last eight games, Arroyo has seven Quality Starts and a 2.30 ERA. Yet somehow he is only 3-4 in that span. Arroyo has been hurt by the home run ball this year. Overall he has a 1.39 HR/9 and a 13 percent HR/FB rate. But in those last eight games he has allowed just four HR in 58.2 IP. Make sure he is active this week.

Clay Buchholz – In his last three outings, Buchholz has hurled Quality Starts but is only 1-2 in that span. With two home starts this week, look for the strong pitching to continue and expect better luck in the win department for the 25-year old.

Kevin Millwood – On the surface Millwood seems to have a normal, or even below-average HR rate. He has a 1.04 HR/9 mark along with a 9.7 percent HR/FB rate. But he has allowed 11 HR in 69.1 IP in road starts this year. This week he has starts at Yankee Stadium and the Metrodome so keep him on the bench.

Jeff Niemann – It has been a breakout year for Niemann but in the last two months he has started to exhibit some extreme home/road splits. In that span he is 3-0 with a 0.74 ERA and a 0.904 WHIP at Tropicana Field. Meanwhile, on the road he is 1-1 with a 5.52 ERA and a 1.364 WHIP. With two road starts upcoming put him on the bench if you have other options.

Ryan Rowland-Smith – Last year, Rowland-Smith pitched very well down the stretch (2.56 ERA in last eight games) when moved from the bullpen. This year he got caught in a numbers game and spent a lot of time in Triple-A. But he is back in the rotation for the Mariners and has reeled off Quality Starts in three of his last four outings. He is a good candidate to pick up and insert into your lineup for his two starts this week at home versus Oakland and Kansas City.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 21 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

J. Santana, Verlander, Halladay, Lee, Lester, Cain, Wainwright, Gallardo, Haren, Greinke, Weaver, Harden, Kershaw, Jurrjens, Marquis, Blanton, Baker, Chamberlain, Zito, Latos, Meche, Ohlendorf, Masterson, Tillman, Matusz, Hammel, Snell, Parnell, Contreras, West, Mazzaro, Sowers, Suppan, F. Garcia, Balester.

Check back Sunday for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 19 and how they did.

Blackburn – Advised to start. 22.50 ERA, 2 Ks, 3.50 WHIP (2 starts)
de la Rosa – Advised to start. 2 W, 0.68 ERA, 20 Ks, 1.57 WHIP (2)
Lohse – Advised to start. W, 4.76 ERA, 8 Ks, 1.32 WHIP (2)
Rzepczynski – Advised to sit. 4.82 ERA, 1 K, 1.82 WHIP (2)
Sanchez – Advised to start. 4.50 ERA, 13 Ks, 1.33 WHIP (2)