2024 Fantasy Busts – Sporer’s Picks

While it might be a little on the nose, it’d be more surprising to not include Elly De La Cruz on a “Bust” list at his insane ADP. I understand the general excitement after the 22-year-old delivered 13 HR/35 SB in just 98 games, but it came with just an 84 wRC+ as the league caught up to him quickly, holding him to a meager .192/.271/.353 line in his final 69 games (not nice). Sure, there’s a world where he makes a sharp adjustment and those dreaming on an extrapolation of those sexy HR/SB numbers strike it rich, but as a Top 25 pick, he almost has to do that to avoid being a big miss. I’d much rather just wait 60 or so picks for Oneil Cruz.

This one is in line with the De La Cruz situation where I understand the desire to invest in the upside, but at this price there is a substantial burden on CJ Abrams to perform and I’m just not sure we can bank on much beyond the SBs. Even during his summer surge when he swiped 38 SBs in 78 games, it came with just a .752 OPS. He hit 11 HRs in that time, too, and 18 in all so I don’t want to suggest he has an empty bat, but I just don’t think he has established the kind of floor I’d like for a Top 50 pick. Both Abrams and De La Cruz should steal enough to not be completely worthless if their bats lag, but I generally like at least some semblance of a plus bat in my Top 50 picks (Abrams 90 wRC+, EDLC 84).

I ranked Tyler Glasnow 12th in my SP rankings so I’m splitting some hairs here as I could see myself taking him somehwere in the 70s or later. I’m just incredibly nervous about making him my ace with a Top 40 pick given that last year’s 120 IP were a career-high. I also worry that his price will only rise if he looks good in Spring Training. I have to admit that I am more open to taking this kind of risk on pitching so this is a softer fade than EDLC and Abrams.

It is lazy to just say “.401 BABIP!” and move on with Nolan Jones? Yes, yes it is. And it’s certainly not just the unsustainable BABIP that has me pushing away from Jones at his elevated price. He is a big strikeout guy which always gives me some pause with a player who is supposed to give me an AVG boost. In fairness, his Ks aren’t built off of flailing at the dish (his 12% SwStr isn’t much worse than the 11% league avg.), but moreso because he runs deep counts waiting for his pitch, happily taking a walk if it doesn’t come but also striking out a ton in the process. His 4.29 pitches per PA would’ve been 5th highest had he qualified, in company with other high-K guys like Kyle Schwarber, Max Muncy, Matt Olson, and teammate Ryan McMahon (Ha-Seong Kim is an interesting outlier as the only guy in that group with just a 20% K rate).

Perhaps the craziest part of Jones’s season was the road work: .935 OPS aided by a .434 BABIP. That’s wild for anyone, but especially bonkers for a Colorado Rockie. I worry that many are dreaming on what his 20/20 production from 106 games will look like for a full season in Coors. I see something like mid-to-high 20s in each category with .250s-type AVG which cuts a Randy Arozarena kind of figure but I’m not sure he can get to the 95 R/83 RBI that Arozarena had as the Rockies haven’t had a 90-R scorer since 2019. I can’t lie, I’m torn on Jones because I like him as a player, but push-come-to-shove I’m inclined to get a cheaper power-speed guy instead of paying a Top 60 pick for Jonesy given his lack of track record. It’s a No-Go for No-Jo in this dojo.

This is always one of my least favorite things in fantasy baseball: having to move off a one-time favorite when their price gets too high. Joe Ryan’s HR issue is growing as his ADP rises. His 1.8 HR9 was 4th-highest last year (min. 160 IP), resulting in a 4.51 ERA. Even his 1.2 mark from 2021-22 would slot 15th and I just worry that his strong K-BB rate won’t be able to counter the HRs and return a Top 100 value. Don’t get me wrong, Ryan does bring a great K rate and strong WHIP to the table but why not just take teammate Bailey Ober 60+ picks later? He has the same profile and just as much upside as far as I’m concerned.

It feels kind of mean to kick Oakland when they’re down, but my next two entries are among the limited bright spots on their team. I think “The Extrapolators” (the people who take a small sample and just extrapolate it out to 600 PA) are playing with fire in thinking Zack Gelof can approach a 30/30 season after his blistering debut (14 HR/SB in 300 PA). I lean way closer to the projections that have him more in the 20/20 range with a sub-.240 AVG and that might not even be a Top 150 hitter, let alone overall. Be careful.

If you’ve been following my work for a while, you know I’m just not a fan of the Rabbit player type aka the SB-only profile. Esteury Ruiz panned out as well as you could hope with an AL-best 67 SBs and landed as a Top 140 player according to the Auction Calculator, but I’m honestly more concerned about what he does to a team build than whether or not he will return enough “value” on his ADP. He is a 4-category negative that and I just don’t know that the SBs are worth it unless you really bolster the rest of your offense to take on Ruiz’s negatives. At that point, I’d rather just take Jorge Mateo at a post-500 ADP.

Y’all, do NOT send this to Justin Mason! It will irreparably damage our relationship, but I’m just not in on Cedric Mullins. Don’t get me wrong, he isn’t some kind of worthless scrub but there are just so many more OF I prefer in his general range. My biggest concern is that if he continues to be a league average-ish bat (99 wRC+), he could start to lose playing time given the seemingly unlimited number of options that Orioles are churning out of their system these days. Mullins is someone who needs volume to sustain his value, especially if he doesn’t turn the tide on his shrinking AVG and BABIP. Justin, if you’re reading this, don’t worry I’m pivoting to another one of your favorites over Mullins as I’d rather just take TJ Friedl at the same ADP.

How is the less proven Ced Mullins just a round cheaper? Jarren Duran is coming off a strong 120 wRC+ with 8 HR and 24 SB in 362 PA which clearly has many excited given his ADP, but I can’t do it. This is another one where I’m worried “The Extrapolators” are pushing the ADP up. I buy the speed, but I’m tepid on his pop and his poor plate skills put a heavy burden on his BABIP to drive the AVG (a .381 BABIP fueled the .295 AVG). Give me any of Chas McCormick, Riley Greene, Brandon Nimmo, James Outman, Lars Nootbaar, Daulton Varsho, Taylor Ward, and even Duran’s new teammate Tyler O’Neill over him at similar to cheaper price tags. They don’t all bring the speed he does, but it could be some pretty empty SBs if his BABIP isn’t strong.

This is admittedly less about being out on José Alvarado and more about loving Jeff Hoffman. The departure of Craig Kimbrel opens the door for more SVs, but Alvarado had just 10 last year and while he isn’t terribly expensive, he is going nearly 300 picks earlier than Hoffman. Hell, even Seranthony Domínguez could be in the mix for Philly SVs and he’s going nearly 500 picks after Alvarado! I don’t mind dipping into the Philly bullpen as they will likely spread their SVs out, I’m just not paying a Top 200 pick for any of their guys.