Young Pitchers Potentially Facing Innings Limits

If you’re a H2H league owner, September could be a frustrating time. It’s when veterans sometimes take a seat as their out of contention teams choose to give young hitters a look and young pitchers reach their innings limits and get shut down. The worst part of it is that these may have been the players that helped you achieve the best record in your league, yet come playoff time, you can’t even count on them to contribute to your championship run. So let’s discuss some of the pitchers who are definitely or possibly on an innings limit. Whether their teams decide to skip a start here and there to keep the innings down or just shut him down with two weeks or so to go, I don’t know. But either way, an innings limit would take a bite out of the pitcher’s value the rest of the way.

Gerrit Cole | 137.1 IP this year vs 138 IP last year

Cole has battled shoulder injuries in the past and was limited to just 138 innings last season as a result. He’s essentially already at that total and we still have two months to go. With small improvements in his skills (which were already excellent) and significantly better fortune, the big breakout has come. And with 14 wins already, there’s little doubt that owners could ask for the farm. This, of course, assumes that your trade partner isn’t totally paying attention and is unaware of a potential innings limit.

With the Pirates enjoying another strong season and currently leading in the wild card standings, you would think Cole’s innings would be managed to ensure he’s available for the playoffs. That would actually be a negative sign for the regular season as they might limit him a little more so he doesn’t exceed last year’s total so significantly if they go deep into the playoffs.

The Mets Trio

Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey and Noah Syndergaard

	This Year IP	Last Year IP
deGrom	133.1	178.1
Harvey	133.0	0
Syndergaard	124.1	133.0

Soooo, I guess deGrom, who came out of nowhere last season to dominate, was for real, eh? His skills have even improved marginally on the back of a nearly 1.5 mph jump in fastball velocity.

So much for giving pitchers returning from Tommy John surgery a couple of months to regain their control, huh? Harvey is actually throwing a slightly higher rate of strikes than he did in 2013. And his fastball velocity sits right where it did before the procedure.

As good as we expected Syndergaard to eventually be, I think he has exceeded even the most optimistic of expectations. With a big fastball, lethal curve and a solid changeup and infrequently used slider, he’s the real deal.

So, this trio has been as good as any Mets fan could have dreamed. But unfortunately all three are pretty much confirmed to have an innings limit hanging over their heads. And the fact that the Mets now have their eyes on the playoffs complicates matters even further. Yesterday, it was reported that all three are on pace to exceed the innings limits planned for them before the season began. Without the option to go to a six-man rotation, manager Terry Collins said:

Now with them on this five-day plan, they are going to get to those limits and if they’re tired, they’re not pitching anymore.

According to the article, Harvey’s limit is around 195 innings, deGrom 215 and Syndergaard 175. The latter is at greatest risk of reaching that limit and getting shut down, though the other two could be skipped for a start or two if the playoff hopes remain alive.

The Cardinals Pair

Michael Wacha and Carlos Martinez

	This Year IP	Last Year IP
Wacha	125.1	109.0
Martinez	124.1	99.2

Wacha’s skills remain solid and his fastball velocity is up, which is an excellent sign after his dealing with shoulder issues last season. Martinez was an intriguing breakout candidate given his ground ball profile and quality fastball/slider combo, though questions about his ability to retire lefties led me to conclude that he wasn’t going to be this year’s Carlos Carrasco and big breakout pitcher. Oops.

Both pitchers have already exceeded their innings from last year. In late June, Craig Edwards, who also writes for this very site, noted that Cardinals reporter Derrick Goold felt Wacha’s innings cap had “fallen by the wayside” given his strong performance. But you would have to assume there is some limit, right? He did throw as many as 144.2 innings in 2013, but he’s going to pitch significantly more than that this year. Carlos Martinez has actually never thrown more than 104.1 innings in a season. He seems much more likely to be skipped frequently or just shut down to preserve him for the playoffs.

Since the Cardinals have the best record in the National League, they are going to need to ensure both starters are fresh and ready for the playoffs. The window to sell astronomically high on Wacha has closed as his ERA has quickly risen back above 3.00 toward his SIERA. But Martinez’s ERA sits at a tidy 2.61 and his overall skills are similar. Since he’s more likely to see his innings curbed, he probably offers a better opportunity to earn a profit in trade.

Lance McCullers | 105.2 IP this year vs 97.0 IP last year

Perhaps McCullers’ implosion last night was his way of capping his innings? Kidding, kidding. His ERA rose all the way from a sterling 2.48 to 3.17. Still, his skills remain superb, which is quite impressive considering he completely skipped Triple-A. But being that he’s already over his innings mark from last year, the Astros are certainly going to be monitoring his workload. The club apparently doesn’t have any specific innings cap set for McCullers. But, they now feature six starters after the acquisition of Mike Fiers. And at the moment, indications are they are going to run with that six-man rotation, which will provide some extra rest for everyone. That means that McCullers might not necessarily get shut down, but it will hurt his fantasy value. And of course, if he seems to be wearing down and his struggles extend past just this one start, then it’s plausible he’s the one who simply loses his rotation spot and gets demoted.