You Should Avoid Lincecum
Between 2008-2011, Tim Lincecum was arguably the best pitcher in baseball. He won back-to-back Cy Young Awards in 2008 and 2009, while posting four-consecutive seasons with at least 200 innings pitched. And in three of those seasons, he featured an ERA under 2.75.
In short, he was dominant. He earned the nickname “The Freak” and became a media darling across the country. His face was seemingly plastered on the cover of ESPN the Magazine or Sports Illustrated every other week, and SportsCenter did numerous featurettes on him throughout the baseball season.
All of the praise and attention was certainly deserved. Only Cliff Lee compiled a better FIP (2.79) than Lincecum’s 2.81 FIP amongst qualified starters in those four seasons, and the right-hander also had the fourth-lowest ERA (2.81).
That’s why it seems so awkward to say the following: fantasy owners should flat-out avoid Tim Lincecum. There, I said it.
Sure, he offers plenty of strikeouts and currently owns the highest swinging-strike rate of his career at 12.3%, but too many red flags exist to advocate owning him — or at least starting him — at this moment.
The most obvious concern surrounding Lincecum is the increased walk rate. It has grown in each of the past four seasons, and it’s ballooned to an unreasonable level the past two years. Through his first two starts, he owns a 9.00 BB/9 walk rate. No matter the strikeout rate, that’s not valuable in actual baseball — much less fantasy baseball.
His command is falling apart. It can be shown by his inability to throw pitches consistently in the strike zone. The following table compares Lincecum’s Zone% to that of the league-average amongst starters across Major League Baseball in every season since he broke into the big leagues:
| Year | Zone% | MLB Zone% | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 50.0% | 50.6% | -0.6% |
| 2008 | 50.3% | 51.3% | -1.0% |
| 2009 | 50.0% | 49.5% | +0.5% |
| 2010 | 47.3% | 46.6% | +0.7% |
| 2011 | 42.3% | 45.4% | -3.1% |
| 2012 | 42.4% | 44.7% | -2.3% |
| 2013 | 41.8% | 46.7% | -4.9% |
The trend is clear. It’s not just the fact that his percentage of pitches in the strike zone has steadily decreased. The remainder of the league has followed suit as the classification of the strike zone has changed in these metrics throughout the years, but that’s why the differential from the league-average Zone% is so important. He’s losing ground, and in the past three season, he’s lost ground quickly.
Perhaps the most prevalent story surrounding Lincecum last season centered on his diminished velocity. From 2011 to 2012, his average fastball velocity dropped from 92.3 mph to 90.4 mph. Combine that with the increased command troubles, and the San Francisco Giants had a recipe for ineffectiveness on the mound.
The early velocity readings from his two starts this year haven’t yielded much hope. In fact, his average fastball velocity in 2013 (granted, two starts) matches his average velocity from last season, so any fantasy owners who drafted Lincecum on the chance that his velocity would rebound must be concerned.
Finally, one more red flag must be mentioned — though it does necessitate the largest small-sample-size warning. His ground-ball rate has drastically declined through his first two starts this season. In each of his first six big-league seasons, Lincecum posted an above-average GB%. This season, however, his ground-ball rate has plummeted to a mere 36.7%.
That fluctuation in the percentage of ground balls given up by Lincecum is a huge concern, especially for a guy who is sustaining decreased velocity, continues to struggle to find the strike zone and who experienced significant home run issues last year. That’s a cocktail of disaster for the Giants and for fantasy owners. Some adventurous owners may wish to keep Lincecum on his or her roster in case the magic returns, but I fail to see how the 28-year-old former Cy Young winner does anything to provide fantasy value at this moment.
Count me out. I’m not happy about it and it feels wrong, but I’m not willing to risk it this season. Let someone else grasp at the shadows.
J.P. Breen is a graduate student at the University of Chicago. For analysis on the Brewers and fantasy baseball, you can follow him on Twitter (@JP_Breen).
Water is wet
Nice… my first thought was that part two of this series would be a bunch of stats as to why you should avoid herpes.
I’m not so sure. I still don’t see a reason to completely give up on Lincecum yet for this year. You make 3 arguments:
1) bad command- Yes, his zone% is getting lower every year, but nobody has been able to identify a real reason for why that should be. This is the most compelling reason to avoid him, but even a slight improvement could get him back to pre-2012 levels. He was never exactly a control artist anyways. Plus, his F-Strike% has been fine this year, so he still is getting ahead in counts. Also, his most recent start this year looked great in terms of control after the first two innings, so I’m not ready to discount him yet from this year’s sample.
2) decreased velocity- Yes, it is down, but 90 is still a fine velocity. He may not be what he used to be, but the major problem with decreased velocity is decreasing ability to miss bats. Timmy hasn’t had any problems missing bats.
3) Bad GB%- Way too small a sample size to draw any conclusions from that yet, even if numbers like that stabilize more quickly than other stats.
I still think based on his most recent start if I can get him cheap, I’m willing to take a chance.
This. It’s hard to see much of a trend relating to the Lincecum zone % difference. We’re working with a two game sample in 2013, so I think any extrapolation involving that number should be accompanied by a Brobdingnagian grain of salt.
I don’t know about Lincecum in particular, but don’t most pitchers start the year with decreased velocity and pick it up around May? Seems that if he’s coming out of the gate at 90 he’s still got good speed, not to mention that his release point is several inches closer to the batter than most other pitchers due to his unconventional mechanics.
He’s just a season removed from being an excellent pitcher, and even last year was a huge statistical aberration – he was unlucky (i.e., posted numbers outside his career average) in BABIP, LOB%, and HR/FB. The increased walk rate and slight fastball velocity probably mean that he won’t compete for a CYA again absent some reawakening, but he’s still an excellent No. 3 starter and should be targeted as a buy-low candidate.
Why did the MLB average Zone% drop so much? Or does it look like a normal fluctuation when looking at a larger time frame?
The way it was measured got changed.
To me, there’s a whole category of players who I’ll let be Someone Else’s Problem. Maybe you get lucky every so often on one of them, but you’re hurting yourself overall wasting resources on guys with huge red flags.
I’ve been saying the same about Mariano since 2007. That is another way of saying, I’m an idiot.
The thing about Lincecum is that one can take advantage of is player perception. Maybe people who haven’t paid close attention to baseball detail may know Lincecum as the guy from years past, not knowing he isn’t that good anymore. This could be useful in dumping him off to someone for a superior player, which could help some bring about some attrition to your opponents.
There isn’t anyone with both a fantasy baseball season and a pulse that doesn’t know that Lincecum has turned
Top five reasons fantasy owners should avoid Tim Lincecum:
5. The constant drama over Lincecum’s hair (or lack thereof) can have a deleterious effect on any projection system in the vicinity.
4. If you’re in a keeper league, he’ll convince all your players to go year-to-year.
3. Tim’s dad will want to be in charge of your pitching staff.
2. You might be attracted to his laid-back attitude and forget to do your daily roster updates.
1. He smells.
I would like to a chart/graph showing the decline in Timmy’s domination in relation to his consumption, or lack thereof, of In ‘n’ Out burgers.
That is a proxy both correlated and caused by his pattern of weed consumption
Lincecum has induced 11 ground balls out of 30 balls in play. 14 of 30 would be the expectation given his career GB%, and he’s just 3 under that. There’s about an 18% chance of him inducing 11 or fewer ground balls out of a sample of 30 due to randomness alone. There’s no at all reason to worry about his ground ball rate yet.
I avoided Lincecum and Halladay on draft day and I’ll avoid them now.
Lincecum showed off no reason to think he will rebound before the season and he has yet too during it. With so many other solid options, why take a flyer on Lincecum?
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=20102
This article on pitch framing and catchers sheds some potential light on TL’s problems and is interesting…
avoid him… as a starter. if he gets moved to the pen, though..
Well no shit.
He has to learn how to pitch and not just throw. Most pitchers go through this.
And then he threw a no hitter!
After rechecking his stats as of the All-Star Break:
1) his Zone% for the year has regressed to 43.8%, or only -1.2% of the MLB average of 45.0% for starting pitchers.
2) Lincecum’s GB rate now reads at 46.7%, or +1.7% over the MLB average for starting pitchers.
Meanwhile, his FIP ranks 33rd among starters now (3.34) and his K/9 has climbed to 9.67. While these numbers are down from his days as an elite pitcher, he is still a serviceable fantasy prospect. Part of this is he has learned to adapt to his declining fastball velocity by mixing in more change-ups and sliders. This is why you don’t make predictions in April about “who to avoid”.
3.54 xFIP and 181Ks in 184 innings thus far. I’ll buy that.
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bw36Y0I05nnGRjdCZzhzOEc2RTQ/edit?usp=sharing