World Series Game 1 SP Matchup Notes

Here is a look at some of the performance data for each team based on tonight’s matchup: Dallas Keuchel v. Clayton Kershaw. Links to the data where available.

The Dodgers v. Dallas Keuchel

• After a disastrous year vs. lefties in 2016 where they finished dead last in wOBA (.275) with a 22.4% K rate (13th-highest), they’ve soared to 5th in wOBA (.337) while standing pat in K rate at 22.3% (10th-highest).
• They’re 12th in wOBA (.281) against lefty sliders, Keuchel’s most-used secondary pitch (19%).
• They’re 6th in wOBA (.334) against lefty changeups, Keuchel’s best secondary by pitch value (6) which he used 13% of the time.

• They smash lefty fastballs at 90 MPH or slower with a .461 wOBA that sits 2nd in the league, though these are small samples when you consider it’s 152 PA for the entire season (CLE’s 252 PA were the most in the league).
• They’re 9th in OPS (data from BRef so I don’t have wOBA or handedness on this one) against groundball pitchers at .773 with a league average 19.7% K rate.
• Using our splits leaderboard, I see that they’re 20th in wOBA (.212) on groundballs in play against lefties. Keuchel has a 67% GB rate.
• Again using BRef, we see they’re 9th in OPS against finesse pitchers at .810 with an 18.6% K rate that is worse than the 17.9% league mark.
• All of LA’s best hitters v. lefties by wOBA will be in the lineup tonight with Puig as the only weak spot:
  • Chris Taylor, CF (.355)
  • Justin Turner, 3B (.484)
  • Cody Bellinger, 1B (.374)
  • Yasiel Puig, RF (.263)
  • Enrique Hernandez, LF (.390)
  • Logan Forsythe, 2B (.381)
  • Austin Barnes, C (.377)
• The excessive heat (102 degrees is the forecast) might not impact Keuchel as much as a groundball pitcher since he keeps the ball down. Every 10 degrees in temperature adds about 3 feet of flyball distance per Alan Nathan.

The Astros v. Clayton Kershaw

• Houston was even better against lefties this year with the 2nd-best wOBA (.347), though admittedly Kershaw isn’t just any ol’ lefty.
• They’re 4th in wOBA (.333) against lefty sliders, Kershaw’s most-used secondary pitch (35%) and pretty close to his most-used pitch overall (fastball is at 47%, a career-low).
• The slider is also far-and-away Kershaw’s best offering by pitch value at 3, though like Keuchel, all four of his pitches netted positive values.
• They’re 5th in wOBA (.323) against lefty curveballs, so his breakers will be instrumental tonight. It’s definitely strength v. strength.
• Lefty velocity doesn’t really faze the Astros, either. They’re 4th in wOBA (.373) against lefty fastballs sitting 93-96 mph.
• Unlike Keuchel, Kershaw doesn’t really fit into a box when it comes to groundball/flyball or power/finesse pitchers so I didn’t really see value in digging into the Houston results in those categories.
• Plus, it’s Kershaw. He’s in his box… atop the league. Take nothing away from Keuchel, who had a tremendous bounce back season, stifled only by an injuries limited him to 145.7 IP, but Kershaw is unquestionably a cut above.
• Here is the lineup the Stros will run out along with their wOBA v. lefties:
  • George Springer, CF (.413)
  • Alex Bregman, 3B (.406)
  • Jose Altuve, 2B (.412)
  • Carlos Correa, SS (.445)
  • Yulieski Gurriel, 1B (.298)
  • Brian McCann, C (.321)
  • Marwin Gonzalez, LF (.340)
  • Josh Reddick, RF (.331)