Rangers Playing Time Battles: Pitchers

We’ve started our annual Depth Chart Discussions, re-branded as Playing Time Battles for 2016. You can catch up on every team we’ve covered in the Playing Time Battles Summary post or following along using the Depth Chart Discussions tag.

A group of geese is a gaggle. A group of monkeys is a troop. When injuries travel together, they’re called a stack.  Or, if you’re a Rangers fan, you might prefer the phrase “an apocalypse of injuries.” Maybe a murder of injuries. But no, only crows travel in murders.

For two years, the Rangers rotation has suffered through bubonic ligament plague. The biggest name to be lost was Yu Darvish. Also hitting the shelf were Derek Holland, Martin Perez, Matt Harrison, and a host of others. Can they stay healthy this year?

Starting Pitchers

The Rangers did their offseason shopping before the mall even opened when they acquired Cole Hamels last July. At the time, I doubt they seriously thought the trade would help lead the club to the postseason. Now he’s the staff ace with Darvish set to rejoin the team sometime around mid-May to early-June. Perez is also recovered from Tommy John surgery, and Holland has yet to fall down any stairs.

Initially, that leaves two spots for the likes of Colby Lewis, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Nick Martinez, A.J. Griffin, and Nick Tepesch. Of those, Gonzalez has the brightest future, but he also has minor league options. His debut was a mixed bag – a 3.90 ERA in 67 innings is fine. He walked (4.30 BB/9) more than he struck out (4.03 K/9), leading to an ugly 4.97 FIP and 5.26 xFIP. He needs to improve upon his command while also buffing the strikeout rate. From a fantasy perspective, he’s a long way from relevance.

Lewis has the highest floor of the bunch. He made 33 starts last season with his usual mix of plus command and unassuming stuff. His 4.66 ERA mirrored his 4.62 xFIP. He’ll be a bit behind this spring due to a knee injury.

Martinez was the Scott Feldman of 2015, except he has a much lower ceiling and floor. He was excellent in April and May with a 2.03 ERA (4.86 xFIP) in 62 innings. He threw just 63 more innings over the final four months with a 5.86 ERA (5.85 FIP, 5.13 xFIP). The peripherals suggest he’s just a swing man.

Griffin was once a promising pitching prospect for the A’s. He’ll be in camp as a non-roster invitee. Tommy John surgery erased his 2014 season and most of 2015. During his 2012-2013 peak, Griffin was a league average pitcher with home run problems at spacious O.Co Coliseum. Even if he’s completely recovered, a move to supercharged Globe Life Park is far from ideal.

Tepesch missed all of 2015 with elbow issues. He also had surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome. Even if healthy, he’s not fantasy relevant. And I would not bet on health until later in the season.

The Rangers do have two interesting major league ready prospects on the 40-man roster – Luke Jackson and Andrew Faulkner. Both were converted to relief last season. As a starter, Jackson’s command could prevent him from finding success. The best case scenario might be a Carlos Carrasco type reemergence in a year. This rarely happens with prospects. Carrasco was kind of unique case in that he had already developed his repertoire when he went to the bullpen. Most prospects are put in the bullpen specifically because they lack secondary pitches or command.

Faulkner has an even weaker case for rejoining the rotation. He’s a lefty who throws 90-94 mph from a three-quarters arm slot. Scouting reports on his curve ball are far from glowing although he does throw a good change. Unless the curve takes a step forward, he sounds like a solid setup man or a short-start swingman (like Erasmo Ramirez).

Relievers

I love this Rangers bullpen. It lacks the starshine of the Yankees, but it may be the deepest unit in the game. I already mentioned Jackson and Faulkner, both of whom have late-innings potential. Shawn Tolleson emerged as the closer last year. He should get the first shot at hanging onto the job even though he’s not the most experienced closer or most talented reliever on the team.

The experience award goes to offseason acquisition Tom Wilhelmsen. He closed for the Mariners in parts of three seasons. Wilhelmsen is not an ideal closer due to high walk rates (career 4.03 BB/9). He’s an unusual reliever in that he throws five distinct pitchers – all of them average or slightly better.

The most physically gifted reliever in the unit is Keone Kela. He’s an early candidate for the Carter Capps non-closer of the year award. Kela was excellent in 60 innings last season, posting a 2.39 ERA with 10.14 K/9, and 2.69 BB/9. Despite a powerful 96 mph fastball, it’s his 90 mph change and elite curve that give him a late innings skill set.

Sam Dyson and Jake Diekman also deserve shout outs. They could earn save opportunities in a shallower bullpen. Dyson is a poor man’s Zach Britton. His 68 percent ground ball rate was complemented by 8.48 K/9, 2.51 BB/9, and a 2.63 ERA. His 96 mph bowling ball sinker induces both grounders and whiffs. He also throws a plus-plus change up.

Diekman has the flashier skill set because he can trip triple digit velocity. He averages 97 mph with a three-quarters arm angle heater. His slider also racks up whiffs. Command can be an issue, as evidenced by a career 4.71 BB/9.