Why We Missed: Hamilton & Gordon

With steals becoming more scarce, owners were forced to reach for the few stolen base sources which could carry a team. In 2018, Dee Gordon and Billy Hamilton were supposed to be two such sources. Both disappointed their owners but the risk of a decline was evident even though their owners, which includes the author, ignored them. The owners were hoping for a stolen base panacea but ended up with burnt pancakes.

Going into the season, our Depth Charts projected Hamilton to have the most stolen bases at 52 and Gordon was third at 46. Both missed badly with Hamilton stealing 34 and Gordon with 30. In my Tout Wars league, 16 steals were the difference between 7th and 2nd in the category.

The reason for their decline didn’t involve their ability to steal a base. Both couldn’t hit enough to get on base and continue leading off. Both had on-base rates under .300 and OPS’s in the low .600’s. By the season’s end, both were deservingly hitting at the bottom of the lineup (Hamilton 106 times, Gordon 34 times). In all fairness, their projected OPS values (.674 and .648) were below the average catcher (.676).

One of the items keeping Hamilton and Gordon on the field was their above-average defensive reputation. If their defense took a step back, their playing time would have dropped even further.

The pair weren’t the only speedsters projected for a sub-.700 OPS. Some overperformed but some struggled (projected for minimum 25 steals):

The key was to take chances on speedsters going later in the draft. While the strategy didn’t work with DeShields, owners would have a pulled a nice profit from Peraza (with power boost) and Smith.

Rostering speedsters like Gordon and Hamilton can really put a team at risk. If these single category contributors fall off or get hurt, the owner may be done in the category with little hope of recovery. I’m no longer going to make a sub-.700 hitter a pillar of any of my team’s. I’ll gladly take a chance on one later but not in my first 150 or so picks.

Owners are still going to need to chase steals but the days of one player being the answer may be over. In my 15-team Tout Wars league, 142 SB won the category (~10 SB for each of the 14 hitters). A total of 121 was 7th. The key will be to get some steals along the way and just hope to pick up one or two breakouts.

That’s it for speedsters and now, it’s time to analyze a few starters. In the meantime vote away on which speedster you’d draft first in 2019. Let me know if anything is wrong with the never-ending poll as it is my first time embedding one.