Which AL SPs Are Allowing the Highest & Lowest Brls/BBE?

At the end of January, I introduced the latest hitter version of xHR/FB, featuring the Statcast fueled metric, Brls/BBE (barrels per batted ball event). I failed to discuss the pitcher side of the ledger, but their barrels against are tracked too, of course. While I haven’t performed any sort of analysis or run a regression, I have to assume that just like for hitters, Brls/BBE allowed by pitchers are going to correlate rather highly with their own HR/FB rates. Unlike for hitters though, it’s probably very inconsistent from year to year, which is why I never bothered to look into it.

That said, whether it’s a persistent skill or not, it’s still interesting to dive into, as it could validate how a pitcher has already performed in a backwards looking manner. So let’s look at the fantasy relevant leaders (low Brls/BBE) and laggards (high Brls/BBE). I’ll include each of their HR/FB rates as well.

Wonder how Andrew Cashner and his hilariously bad 23/27 K/BB ratio over 52.1 innings has managed to keep his ERA below 3.00? That tiny Brls/BBE is one of the main reasons why. Of course, his Brls/BBE was nearly double this mark last year, so regression is likely to rear its ugly head soon. Or, of course, you can argue that more than doubling the usage of his changeup is keeping hitters off-balance and inducing soft contact. Perhaps, though correlation doesn’t equal causation (his Soft% is at a career high, though). Whatever you choose to believe, there’s literally no chance a pitcher who calls Globe Life Park home is going to continue being an ERA asset while walking more batters than he strikes out.

Jharel Cotton allows a ton of fly balls, but at least he has kept the barrels to a minimum. It’s rather surprising to see him among the Brls/BBE leaders, and yet stands with a double digit HR/FB rate. Both his changeup and slider are generating far fewer whiffs than last year, which is understandable as hitters adjust, but I would still bet on him being a deep league and AL-Only asset over the rest of the season.

Ervin Santana’s appearance here validates some of what he’s done that has resulted in some amazing surface stats after two months of play. This, despite the highest SIERA of his career! Oddly, the low Brls/BBE hasn’t helped his HR/FB rate much, but instead perhaps his BABIP, which shouldn’t be the case because barrels are usually homers, and homers are excluded from BABIP. Weirdness all around. If you haven’t worked hard to trade him yet, DO IT NOW.

Looks like the old Jason Vargas we’re more familiar with reemerged after Pedro Martinez took over in April. I have no idea what happened that first month, but the world is right again now that Vargas isn’t striking out the same rate of batters as Clayton Kershaw. I don’t have a Brls/BBE by date range, but I bet it was microscopic in April too and has since risen to normal levels again in May. But I’m just guessing.

This list was rather surprising as it’s dotted with some solid pitchers.

Crazy that Bauer sits atop the list even after his 14 strikeout masterpiece on Tuesday. He’s one of those guys who always seems to be so close to a breakout, but continues failing to do make that leap. I guess with a HR/FB rate over 20%, it makes sense that he’s allowing barrels like crazy. So here’s a good example of Brls/BBE validating what has happened so far. His Brls/BBE sat at just 5.9% last year, so this has simply been a bad start to the season.

It’s official — Masahiro Tanaka is the new Michael Pineda, pulling the Jekyll and Hyde act perfectly. After allowing 14 runs his previous two starts, Tanaka shocked many with his dominant 13 strikeout effort in his next outing. And then last night happened, as he allowed seven more runs in just 5.2 innings. His HR/FB rate remains above 20% and the high Brls/BBE rate supports it. Last year, he was more of a leader than a laggard, as his Brls/BBE stood at just 4.3%. I was probably a little more bearish than most heading into the year, but I’m still buying.

Us Nathan Karns have something to look forward to when he returns from the DL — allowing less monstrous contact!

I was very vocal about my concern with Danny Salazar heading into the season as he was pitching last year like his elbow was a serious issue. His control has remained problematic, suggesting that elbow just ain’t 100%, and combined with all the barrels he has allowed, has resulted in him getting the boot from the rotation.

Is it just coincidence that three Indians starters make the laggards list?! Carlos Carrasco is the third and both his skills and results have generally been in line with expectations, despite the high Brls/BBE. That’s because although his HR/FB rate is slightly elevated, he has offset the long balls with the sixth lowest BABIP among qualified starters, which has boosted his LOB% above 80%.