Where Have Matt Shoemaker’s Strikeouts Gone?

Matt Shoemaker’s strikeouts have essentially gone through three phases this season. Through his first six starts, he had just 17 strikeouts in 24.7 IP with a 14% strikeout rate. The fastball was getting pummeled and certainly not generating a necessary number of strikeouts. It yielded a 1.175 OPS and just 5% strikeout rate in 74 PA over those first six. The splitter (.566, 35%) offered hope. He decided to lean on it and it remained dominant over his next 12 starts, while also lessening the burden on his fastball.

Both pitches excelled in the two-month span from May 16th through July 16th. He had a 29% strikeout rate thanks in large part to the fastball’s improved output. The splitter it definitely the carrying pitch and gets its due credit for his resurgence, but the impact it had on the fastball allowed him to reach these heights.

He went from throwing about 15 splitters per game in those first six starts to 42 per in the next 12. Yes, he was throwing around 27 more per start. This afforded him the ability to be less reliant upon his modest heater and the results flooded in.

There’s a third part, though. We’re in the midst of it right now. His last five starts have seen just 16 strikeouts in 32.7 innings. The resultant 4.68 ERA is still better than those first six starts (9.12 ERA), but far from the 2.55 ERA he posted in 81.3 IP over those middle 12 starts. Both pitches have fallen off substantially. The splitter is still getting results from a triple slash standpoint, but the strikeouts just aren’t there.

Despite the sharp drop in strikeouts, he isn’t exactly being pummeled every time out. Three of the five starts quality starts – all better than the base requirements for a quality start (6 IP/3 ER). In those three games, he still had a 13% swinging strike rate, compared to 15% during the 12-start run of excellence. In the two down starts (5 ER in both), he was down at 8% which is in line with the 9% from the first six starts.

The biggest issue I found with the splitter is that he’s not getting it down in the zone as well. This was the same problem he had throughout most of 2015 when his home run rate surged to 1.6 HR/9 and he finished with a 4.46 ERA in 135.3 IP. He was peppering the lower third of the zone with 73% of the splitters thrown, but over the last five starts it’s down to just 60%. The extra splitters in the middle of the zone haven’t killed him because so many are beaten into the ground. He has a 51% groundball rate on the splitter in his last five, compared to 47% before.

Shoemaker is leaving the fastball up a lot more often and it’s not working out well. Perhaps he was emboldened by the .477 OPS and 48% strikeout rate he had in 27 PA that ended with fastballs in the upper third, but this is definitely a case where less is more. He accumulated those 27 PA in 12 starts. Over his last five starts, he has 24 PA ending on an upper third fastball and the results are a devastating 1.215 OPS and 13% strikeout rate.

This fits Shoemaker’s modus operandi and really anytime I see that he’s had a bad start, I assume he left the ball up too much. He essentially has to imagine a limbo bar splitting the top and bottom halves of the strike zone and if he goes over it, he loses. I don’t think injury is at play with the lowered strikeouts of late. He did register one of his lowest average fastball totals in his last start (90.6 MPH), but he was at 92 flat in the two just before that. He averages 91.4 for the season.

He draws the Mariners at home tonight after putting up a 7 IP/3 ER effort against them two starts ago. He’s had a distinct home/road split this year with both the ERA and skills being rather disparate. At home he has a 3.16 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 10.3 K/9, and 6.0 K:BB ratio in 62.7 IP while on the road he’s at 5.09, 1.38, 6.4, and 3.6 over 76 IP.

Angels Stadium is known for being favorable to pitchers regarding home runs, Shoemaker’s biggest issue when he’s off, so it’s no surprise to see the split. Watch to see if he’s keeping the fastball and splitter down, though especially focus on the latter. A whopping 92% of his 63 splitter strikeouts (through July 16th) came in the lower third and only 24 were even in the strike zone.