#2xSP: 8.22-28

Alright we’re back for another edition of #2xSP, and after a weird Week 15 (0-5, 4.18 ERA, 9.5 K/9 and three quality starts), we’re off to a pretty good start in Week 16 (3-0, 2.55 ERA, 6.1 K/9, but just one quality start). I guess on the aggregate, those two weeks combined would be pretty solid.

This week was a bit of a struggle, but I really like the first name and the other two I’m semi-enthused about, so let’s get after it. First of all, here are the season marks:

37-35 record
4.01 ERA
8.1 K/9
2.8 BB/9
1.33 WHIP
52 quality starts

And here are this week’s recs (with team wRC+ in parentheses):

RHP Homer Bailey – 28.3% ESPN – v. LAD (98), @ARI (94)

“Hi, I’m Homer Bailey, and you might remember me from not pitching a full season since 2013.” While that is true, as Bailey made 23 starts in 2014 and just two last year before missing a ton of time with Tommy John surgery. Before that, he had surgery to repair a tear in his flexor tendon in his throwing elbow as well. Either way, he’s back and ready to roll, and has a couple decent matchups coming up this week. Beyond that, he’s looked pretty good so far in his four starts since returning: 3.66 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 12.4 K/9. Opposing batters have hit just .269/.337/.321 against him, with the OBP a bit alarming but nothing else terribly out of whack. Either way, it isn’t often that you get a starter of Bailey’s caliber largely available on the wire at this time of year. Get on it.

RHP Kevin Gausman – 29.1% ESPN – v. WAS (99), @NYY (88)

We gave you Gausman a couple weeks back and he didn’t really deliver (0-2, 3.60 ERA, 15-8 K/BB in 10 innings), but this is a couple decent matchups and honestly there wasn’t much for quality available, either. We’ll take our chances here with the matchups, and the fact that in spite of an iffy season record (3-10), Gausman’s overall numbers aren’t all that bad: 4.04 ERA, 9.0 K/9 and 1.33 WHIP.

RHP Dan Straily – 42.8% ESPN – v. TEX (94), @ARI (94)

I was torn between Straily and Pittsburgh’s Ivan Nova (12.2% ESPN, v. HOU/@MIL), but opted to go with Straily on the basis of how well he’s pitched over a relatively extended period. Since July 1 — a span of eight starts — Straily has a 2.65 ERA, .201/.249/.402 line against and 37-11 K/BB ratio in those 51 innings. That goes with a decent 10 percent swinging strike rate, and again, isn’t that small of a sampling. So far in August, he’s pitched to a 3.12 ERA with a 14-1 K/BB ratio, and the only real issue with him of late has been home runs allowed. He’s allowed four this month after allowing four in all of July. If you’re worried about the Rangers offense (90 road wRC+ but this is Great American Ballpark after all), Nova might be a better fit. Still, then you’ll have to contend with the home Brewers, who have hit .253/.333/.432 in their own yard. I think I like Straily a bit more, but it’s not by a ton.





In addition to Rotographs, Warne writes about the Minnesota Twins for The Athletic and is a sportswriter for Sportradar U.S. in downtown Minneapolis. Follow him on Twitter @Brandon_Warne, or feel free to email him to do podcasts or for any old reason at brandon.r.warne@gmail-dot-com

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