What to Expect in 2012 from the Top HR/FB Surgers

Trying to decipher which breakouts are for real, or at least repeatable the following year, and which are mostly a fluke is one of the more enjoyable tasks during the off-season. Unfortunately, it is very difficult to be truly confident in our guesses, no matter how much supporting data we could find that validates our side. Of course, the easiest thing to do is just predict that every surger will regress. And more times than not, you will be right. But where’s the fun in that? Below are the 5 hitters who experienced the largest HR/FB ratio jumps from 2010. Note that only qualified hitters each year were looked at.

Howie Kendrick, the man many thought would win a batting title someday (which was extremely misguided and based on ridiculous and unsustainable BABIPs), easily saw the biggest increase in HR/FB ratio this season. Surprisingly though, his ISO, although a career high, was still below what you would expect given that HR/FB ratio at .179. Looks like some of his doubles from last year went over the fence this year, which could be taken either way in terms of what it means for the future. Interestingly, his strikeout rate went way up this year. I wonder if it was a conscious effort to hit with more power. If so, maybe he could hold some of his gains. However, he still hits way too many ground balls and requires a true power hitter’s HR/FB ratio to hit even 18 home runs. Bottom line is nothing really makes me confident he’ll even muster 15 home runs next season.

Ughhh, Yunel Escobar is another case of the Braves selling low and overreacting to a disappointing season. He only appears on this list because of the power outage he experienced last year, but before that he had posted HR/FB ratios between 9% and 10%. Given his lack of doubles and his age (I had no idea he is already 29!), it is doubtful he experiences any real power surge. But he looks like a safe bet to just continue what he’s been doing.

Raise your hand if you predicted that Melky Cabrera would be the 15th most valuable hitter in fantasy baseball this year. Heck, raise your hand if you even realize how valuable he was even after the season had ended! Accumulating 659 at-bats certainly helped, but he contributed everywhere, and it does not look like much of a fluke. Oh, and of course the Braves got rid of him after last season. Melky actually posted a higher HR/FB ratio in 2009, making this year’s mark appear unsurprising. However, 44 doubles also came along for the ride this season, so it appears Melky is legitimately hitting his power peak. The Royals ran wild this year and why shouldn’t they continue? I’m not sure his .332 BABIP will hold up given his history, but everything else seems very possible to repeat (on a per at-bat basis at least, though it is highly unlikely he gets over 650 at-bats again).

Evan Longoria finds his name on this least due to last season’s disappointing power output. Given the low batting average as a result of a .239 BABIP, he may very well be undervalued in 2012 drafts. But all his skills are trending in the right direction and he is just entering his prime years. A 40 home run season with a .300 batting average may not be too far away.

27 home runs, 10 home runs, and 20 home runs. Guess which year I owned Ben Zobrist? Yup, always catch hitters the one year they disappoint. Whatever happened last year is anyone’s guess, but I think this year is much closer to Zobrist’s true power talent. Even better news is he hit 46 doubles, a big increase from the previous two years. So his power is clearly back, and if his fly ball rate rebounds to previous years, he could return to the 25+ home run plateau.