Weekly Starter Rankings: Opening Weekend

July 22, 2020

For the 60-game season, I’m going to rank the starters each week by their probable matchup(s). This will be different than my standard longer-term rankings as it will be hyper-focused on the week ahead. As such a solid two-start arm (of which there are none this time around since I’m focusing solely on the upcoming Thursday-Sunday run) with good matchups will slot above a superstar ace in a one-start week, though you’ll likely not be pressed to choose between the two. The decisions will likely wind up on the fringes when you’re deciding between your last starter and another reliever. Talent will still matter, but matchups can create some separation in the short term.

Here’s what I’ve got based on the probable SP lists and notes I’ve gone over thus far. Let me know if someone I have listed is for sure not starting this weekend.

The notes will always be sporadic throughout the chart as I won’t always have something to say about every single arm.

Opening Week SP Rankings

	PITCHER	TEAM	OPP(s)	NOTE
1	Clayton Kershaw	LAD	SF	Owns SF in career w/a 1.74 career ERA in 342.3 IP (2.37 last yr)
2	Justin Verlander	HOU	SEA
3	Mike Clevinger	CLE	KC	ClevDog is 9-0 in 12 career starts v. KC
4	Luis Castillo	CIN	DET	Great matchup boosts Castillo & Gray for this wknd
5	Sonny Gray	CIN	DET
6	Shane Bieber	CLE	KC
7	Gerrit Cole	NYY	at WAS	Tough first gm but obviously an auto-start
8	Jack Flaherty	STL	PIT	Allowed 1 ER in 15 IP w/18 K v. PIT last yr
9	Jacob deGrom	NYM	ATL	Back soreness said to be fine after side work on Tues.
10	Max Scherzer	WAS	NYY	Tough matchup but Scherzer & Stras are still mega-stud autostarts
11	Stephen Strasburg	WAS	NYY
12	Aaron Nola	PHI	MIA	Likely to open MIA, at NYY, at MIA
13	Zack Greinke	HOU	SEA	Should be fully ramped up for the weekend
14	Trevor Bauer	CIN	DET	I’m lower on him than most, but he opens w/DET twice
15	Charlie Morton	TB	TOR
16	Carlos Carrasco	CLE	KC	Looking healthy & ready to go w/a cushy first matchup
17	Jose Berrios	MIN	at CWS
18	Yu Darvish	CHC	MIL	5 ER in final tuneup could net a draft day discount this wk
19	Blake Snell	TB	TOR	Could wind up on Monday v. ATL, stay tuned
20	Frankie Montas	OAK	LAA	Opens w/3 straight home starts (LAA, COL, TEX)
21	Lucas Giolito	CWS	MIN	Big first matchup in his follow up to last year’s elite breakout
22	Kyle Hendricks	CHC	MIL
23	Lance McCullers Jr.	HOU	SEA	Capable of being an ace on a per-inning basis
24	Shohei Ohtani	LAA	at OAK	Sundays are his day so an easy start in the short week
25	Corey Kluber	TEX	COL	Up to 98 pitches in latest tuneup
26	Zack Wheeler	PHI	MIA	Some uncertainty around his season, but use him while he’s here
27	Chris Paddack	SD	ARI
28	Brandon Woodruff	MIL	at CHC	MIL ace will max out on starts pitching from the 1-spot
29	Lance Lynn	TEX	COL
30	Ross Stripling	LAD	SF	Ramped up and ready to go at six innings
31	James Paxton	NYY	at WAS
32	Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진	TOR	at TB	Boost in home park if they do make PNC their temporary home
33	Julio Urías	LAD	SF	Threw 5 IP in final tuneup, should be ready to go as a normal SP
34	Alex Wood	LAD	SF	Also looks ready to go after 89-pitch final tuneup
35	Joe Musgrove	PIT	at STL
36	Kenta Maeda	MIN	at CWS	Not easy matchup, but the Sox aren’t an avoid lineup for good arms
37	Zac Gallen	ARI	at SD
38	Mike Soroka	ATL	at NYM	Dominated on road last yr: 1.55 ERA, 0.96 WHIP in 98.7 IP
39	Robbie Ray	ARI	at SD
40	Madison Bumgarner	ARI	at SD
41	Max Fried	ATL	at NYM	Rumors of piggybacking seem to have died on the vine
42	Mike Minor	TEX	COL
43	Garrett Richards	SD	ARI	Has at COL at v. LAD after opening week start
44	Germán Márquez	COL	at TEX	Opens w/2 road starts before a pair at home v. SD & SF
45	Jake Odorizzi	MIN	at CWS	Monitor mild back stiffness in the lead up to lineup lock
46	Nathan Eovaldi	BOS	BAL	Has top spot in BOS rotation w/Sale inj. & E-Rod COVID
47	Mitch Keller	PIT	at STL
48	Corbin Burnes	MIL	at CHC	B.Anderson blister guarantees early spot for Burnes
49	Matthew Boyd	DET	at CIN	HR pitcher in a HR park could be trouble v. this strong lineup
50	Jon Gray	COL	at TEX	Weirdly always been better at home, but I’d still start him here
51	Ryan Yarbrough	TB	TOR	Hit 87 pitches in final start, should have 5-6 IP in arm for debut
52	Andrew Heaney	LAA	at OAK
53	Marcus Stroman	NYM	ATL
54	Dylan Bundy	LAA	at OAK	Maybe a week 2 sit w/HOU on the docket
55	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	at PHI	Gets at BAL and v. PHI after this open; solid short-term investment
56	Sean Manaea	OAK	LAA
57	Caleb Smith	MIA	at PHI	See also: Alcantara comment
58	Dinelson Lamet	SD	ARI	Could face 7 lefties/switchies here (221-pt OPS platoon split)
59	Dallas Keuchel	CWS	MIN	Crafty vet who I think might be too slept on
60	Danny Duffy	KC	at CLE
61	Freddy Peralta	MIL	at CHC	Could be Lindblom in this spot, stay tuned before starting either
62	Dakota Hudson	STL	PIT	Solid matchup, but don’t trust last yr’s 3.35 ERA at all
63	Spencer Turnbull	DET	at CIN	Love the talent but at CIN, v. CIN, at STL to start is tooouuugghhh
64	Reynaldo López	CWS	MIN	Still love the talent, but this is a brutal opener
65	Matt Shoemaker	TOR	at TB	Brutal trio to open the yr: at TB, v. WAS, at ATL
66	Mike Montgomery	KC	at CLE
67	Adam Wainwright	STL	PIT	Had 3.41 ERA and 1.28 WHIP v. PIT in 5 starts last yr
68	Martín Pérez	BOS	BAL	Solid last pick in deep lgs specifically for this start
69	Brady Singer	KC	at CLE	Eager to see the rookie debut, but can’t start him in fantasy just yet
70	Jake Arrieta	PHI	MIA	Don’t sleep on MIA as a moderately tough matchup
71	Jeff Samardzija	SF	at LAD
72	Johnny Cueto	SF	at LAD
73	Sean Newcomb	ATL	at NYM	IP likely to be managed for at least first few starts
74	Marco Gonzales	SEA	at HOU	I like all 3 SEA SPs a bit, but not w/a trip to HOU
75	Taijuan Walker	SEA	at HOU
76	Yusei Kikuchi	SEA	at HOU
77	Tanner Roark	TOR	at TB	Likely going 4 IP on Saturday
78	Kyle Freeland	COL	at TEX
79	Mike Fiers	OAK	LAA	Always good for a handful of gems, but timing them is hard
80	Kevin Gausman	SF	at LAD	Nervous to trust him as an SP again
81	Trevor Williams	PIT	at STL
82	Michael King	NYY	at WAS	Could be the opener for Loaisiga, who I like a lot
83	Drew Smyly	SF	at LAD
84	José Ureña	MIA	at PHI
85	Ryan Weber	BOS	BAL	Maybe an AL-only play if you’re desperate
86	Rick Porcello	NYM	ATL
87	Tyler Chatwood	CHC	MIL
88	Alex Cobb	BAL	at BOS
89	Tommy Milone	BAL	at BOS
90	Wade LeBlanc	BAL	at BOS
91	Iván Nova	DET	at CIN