Week 17 FAAB Projections
It looks to be another calm week for adds if last night had not happened.Daniel Hudson got the first Save chance with Ken Giles out. He hasn’t had a chance to see his ownership jump so he’s not on the list, but he could garner decent bids for teams in need of Saves.
The projection guidelines:
- The ownership rates are from CBS since they have some quickdraw waiver wire leagues where players can be picked up at any time.
- The FAAB estimates are based on the 2018 15-team mixed NFBC leagues which used a $1000 FAAB budget. Owners are going to need to convert these values to their own league.
- The ownership values were taken from Saturday and lots can happen in between when they publish and FAAB bids run.
- Only players owned in 50% or fewer of CBS leagues are examined.
Week 17 Projected Hitter FAAB Costs
| Name | Previous Ownership% | Current Ownership% | Change% | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bubba Starling CF | KC | 1% | 3% | 2% | $14 |
| Chris Herrmann C | OAK | 1% | 3% | 2% | $14 |
| Matt Wieters C | STL | 1% | 3% | 2% | $14 |
| J.J. Bleday RF | MIA | 1% | 2% | 1% | $14 |
| Mike Brosseau 3B | TB | 2% | 4% | 2% | $14 |
| Mauricio Dubon SS | MIL | 2% | 4% | 2% | $14 |
| Robel Garcia 2B | CHC | 4% | 9% | 5% | $16 |
| Travis d’Arnaud C | TB | 4% | 9% | 5% | $16 |
| Luis Arraez 2B | MIN | 6% | 11% | 5% | $17 |
| Isan Diaz 2B | MIA | 6% | 8% | 2% | $15 |
| Alex Dickerson LF | SF | 6% | 8% | 2% | $15 |
| Jeimer Candelario 3B | DET | 7% | 11% | 4% | $16 |
| Cristian Pache CF | ATL | 13% | 14% | 1% | $16 |
| Nate Lowe 1B | TB | 15% | 20% | 5% | $20 |
| Adam Frazier 2B | PIT | 20% | 29% | 9% | $29 |
| Colin Moran 3B | PIT | 21% | 23% | 2% | $20 |
| Luis Robert CF | CHW | 22% | 24% | 2% | $20 |
| Chance Sisco C | BAL | 23% | 30% | 7% | $27 |
| Kurt Suzuki C | WAS | 25% | 28% | 3% | $23 |
| Jake Bauers 1B | CLE | 26% | 28% | 2% | $23 |
| Jo Adell CF | LAA | 26% | 27% | 1% | $22 |
| Evan Longoria 3B | SF | 27% | 29% | 2% | $23 |
| Kevin Pillar CF | SF | 29% | 34% | 5% | $28 |
| Freddy Galvis SS | TOR | 31% | 36% | 5% | $30 |
| Jesus Aguilar 1B | MIL | 33% | 39% | 6% | $33 |
| Roberto Perez C | CLE | 35% | 48% | 13% | $51 |
| Brett Gardner LF | NYY | 37% | 50% | 13% | $53 |
| Kevin Kiermaier CF | TB | 38% | 42% | 4% | $35 |
| Jose Martinez 1B | STL | 38% | 40% | 2% | $32 |
| Renato Nunez 3B | BAL | 39% | 43% | 4% | $36 |
| Danny Jansen C | TOR | 44% | 66% | 22% | $96 |
| Christian Walker 1B | ARI | 47% | 54% | 7% | $50 |
| Kevin Newman SS | PIT | 47% | 53% | 6% | $48 |
- Robel Garcia and Michael Brosseau: Both are must-adds in all formats, especially for owners needing power. Garcia has hit 23 home runs combined in the minors and majors with a high strikeout rate. Brosseau is posting a 1.061 OPS in 27 PA after dominating AAA this season with similar numbers. This week will be the last to get them cheap before their price jumps. Brosseau’s projected price might be on the low side with his two homers yesterday.
- Bubba Starling: For those owners in need of steals, Starling is must add. He’s an extremely athletic player who has stolen nine bases in the minors and Ned Yost will give him the green light. The big question will be if he gets on base enough to run.
- Mauricio Dubon: The talent is legit for good fantasy numbers but he’ll need to outperform Orlando Arcia (.696 OPS). He’s tough to roster but if some playing time opens up, owners need to add Dubon especially if they need stolen bases.
- Alex Dickerson, Jeimer Candelario, Adam Frazier, Nate Lowe, Jake Bauers, and Luis Arraez: While some of these hitters had their chance to shine, all are under 30% owned. Each one is playing full-time right now and putting up decent stats. Not every fantasy team needs to add all of them, but they should be added for hitters losing playing time (e.g. Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernandez).
- Roberto Perez, Travis d’Arnaud, and Chance Sisco: These three catchers are probably must own by some team in every 15 or more catcher league.
Week 17 Projected Hitter FAAB Costs
| Name | Previous Ownership% | Current Ownership% | Change% | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heath Hembree RP | BOS | 1% | 3% | 2% | $12 |
| Dario Agrazal SP | PIT | 2% | 5% | 3% | $12 |
| Andres Munoz RP | SD | 2% | 4% | 2% | $12 |
| Colin Poche RP | TB | 3% | 6% | 3% | $12 |
| Alex Young SP | ARI | 4% | 29% | 25% | $36 |
| Yusmeiro Petit RP | OAK | 4% | 6% | 2% | $12 |
| Sam Dyson RP | SF | 4% | 6% | 2% | $12 |
| Daniel Ponce de Leon RP | STL | 5% | 8% | 3% | $12 |
| Jaime Barria SP | LAA | 5% | 7% | 2% | $12 |
| Aaron Bummer RP | CHW | 5% | 7% | 2% | $12 |
| Bryse Wilson RP | ATL | 11% | 13% | 2% | $12 |
| Danny Salazar SP | CLE | 13% | 35% | 22% | $32 |
| Felix Pena SP | LAA | 14% | 16% | 2% | $12 |
| Sean Manaea SP | OAK | 16% | 19% | 3% | $13 |
| Emilio Pagan RP | TB | 23% | 32% | 9% | $17 |
| Kyle Freeland SP | COL | 23% | 26% | 3% | $14 |
| Jason Vargas SP | NYM | 23% | 25% | 2% | $13 |
| Alex Wood SP | CIN | 25% | 28% | 3% | $14 |
| Diego Castillo RP | TB | 25% | 28% | 3% | $14 |
| Anthony DeSclafani SP | CIN | 27% | 34% | 7% | $16 |
| Danny Duffy SP | KC | 30% | 33% | 3% | $15 |
| Adam Wainwright SP | STL | 30% | 33% | 3% | $15 |
| Jeff Samardzija SP | SF | 32% | 39% | 7% | $17 |
| Andrew Cashner SP | BOS | 38% | 61% | 23% | $40 |
| Brett Anderson SP | OAK | 39% | 49% | 10% | $22 |
| Dinelson Lamet SP | SD | 42% | 66% | 24% | $44 |
| Mike Leake SP | SEA | 43% | 46% | 3% | $18 |
| CC Sabathia SP | NYY | 45% | 50% | 5% | $19 |
- Daniel Hudson: While not on the list, he’s a must-own in any Saves league. I’m expecting his FAAB cost to be between $50 and $150.
- Alex Young: I feel he has some Tommy Milone going on with a horrible fastball but two decent breaking pitches.
- Danny Salazar: I’m not sure what hope from him. While he has started in each of his minor league rehab games, he has only gone two innings in each. With is injury-prone past, I just see him headed to the bullpen where is value will be near nothing. Take a gamble on any other pitcher.
- Andrew Cashner: In the few leagues where he’s available, the bidding could approach double digits. He’s made a few changes this season to help his production (e.g. dropping the use of horrible fastball) and now gets away from one of the worst home parks in baseball.
For reference, here are last week’s bids and the bids from one year ago.
2019 Week 16 FAAB Results
| Add | Avg Bid | Leagues (38) |
|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease | $67 | 36 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | $54 | 15 |
| Jordan Yamamoto | $34 | 6 |
| Nate Lowe | $21 | 19 |
| Alex Dickerson | $20 | 6 |
| Gregory Polanco | $19 | 8 |
| Adam Frazier | $18 | 9 |
| Delino DeShields | $18 | 6 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | $17 | 5 |
| Jesus Aguilar | $16 | 13 |
| Bryse Wilson | $15 | 16 |
| Hanser Alberto | $14 | 7 |
| Alex Young | $12 | 23 |
| Diego Castillo | $11 | 13 |
| Spencer Turnbull | $11 | 6 |
| Andrew Cashner | $11 | 17 |
| Austin Slater | $11 | 6 |
| Jeimer Candelario | $10 | 25 |
| Joey Wendle | $10 | 7 |
| Heath Hembree | $9 | 5 |
| Daniel Mengden | $9 | 5 |
| Franklin Barreto | $9 | 21 |
| Jesse Chavez | $9 | 5 |
| Luis Arraez | $8 | 18 |
| Jake Lamb | $8 | 7 |
| Vince Velasquez | $8 | 10 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | $7 | 11 |
| Jose Urquidy | $7 | 18 |
| Gio Gonzalez | $7 | 8 |
| Francisco Mejia | $6 | 6 |
| Evan Longoria | $6 | 26 |
| Robel Garcia | $6 | 13 |
| Tommy Edman | $6 | 13 |
| Sean Manaea | $6 | 7 |
| Framber Valdez | $6 | 12 |
| Aaron Bummer | $5 | 7 |
| Dexter Fowler | $5 | 8 |
| Jaime Barria | $5 | 16 |
| Daniel Ponce de Leon | $5 | 9 |
| Tyler Beede | $5 | 6 |
| Anthony Santander | $5 | 8 |
| Tyler O’Neill | $5 | 6 |
| Ryan Zimmerman | $5 | 8 |
| Yoshihisa Hirano | $4 | 11 |
| Mark Canha | $4 | 5 |
| Colin Poche | $4 | 12 |
| Jason Vargas | $4 | 11 |
| Mike Leake | $4 | 6 |
| Joe Jimenez | $4 | 6 |
| Alex Wood | $4 | 9 |
| Miguel Rojas | $4 | 12 |
| Aaron Civale | $3 | 5 |
| Jason Castro | $3 | 12 |
| Danny Salazar | $3 | 7 |
| Adam Plutko | $3 | 5 |
| Travis d’Arnaud | $3 | 7 |
| Reyes Moronta | $3 | 13 |
| Jalen Beeks | $2 | 5 |
| Homer Bailey | $2 | 14 |
| Nick Anderson | $2 | 9 |
| Mychal Givens | $2 | 5 |
| Mike Brosseau | $2 | 6 |
2018 Week 17 FAAB Results
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Thoughts on what to do with Howie Kendrick in nfbc main? He has started one time in last 10 games, I guess he has to be a drop right?
yeah that’s right guess