Waiver Wire Report (Week 3)

The luster is gone from all the shiny new toys and it’s a blue-collar week with boring adds. For hitters, I pushed up the full-time at-bats, so those managers with daily lineup moves might want to drop down to the platoon bats. With the starters, it seems full of guys with a 7.0 K/9 and 4.25 ERA.

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.

Hitters

Aaron Hicks: He has led off for the Yankees in five of the last six games while hitting .270/.378/.351. He needs to be universally rostered if he continues to lead off.

Andrew McCutchen: A steady contributor (255/.315/.340) who has even chipped in a couple of steals. His power is down by several metrics (Avg EV, HardHit%, Barrel%, Max EV) so 20 HR might be a reach.

Jurickson Profar: He’s gone full pull happy with his Pull% up from 41% to 65% and his HR/FB up from 4% to 36%. Also, he’s hitting the ball harder with his StatCast HardHit% at a career-high 41%.

Alec Bohm: While the defense is atrocious, he’s hitting .440/.455/.640 in 33 PA. This might be the last week to buy on the cheap since he’s started four straight games.

Taylor Ward: Since coming off the IL, he was inserted into the top of the lineup and has been great (.348/.464/.522, 1 HR, 1SB). His .438 BABIP will regress and drop his AVG at some point.

Thairo Estrada: He has a nice balanced profile of power, speed, and batting average. The only question surrounding him will be how much he’ll play once Tommy La Stella returns from the IL.

Tony Kemp: He’s been a nice contributor with 2 SB and a .286 AVG while leading off. The A’s have faced three lefties this season and Kemp has sat in two of those games.

Jorge Mateo: He’d have zero fantasy value if it wasn’t for the five stolen bases. He has no power (.045 ISO), .393 BABIP, just a .608 OPS, and a 33% K%. Again, Mateo will continue to be a fantasy asset as long as he can hit enough to remain in the lineup.

Daniel Vogelbach: He’s started six straight with three against lefty starters. He’s hitting .310/.383/.548 with three home runs. I don’t see any change in his profile why his .385 BABIP won’t regress to his career .248 BABIP. Value him as a power-only bat.

Tyler Naquin: He’s on the COVID-IL but was hitting fine (.273/.333/.455, 1 SB, 1HR) before that. If he gets dropped in leagues, it might be a nice buy-low opportunity.

Josh Naylor: He’s started five of seven games since coming off the IL. He has a .471 BABIP fueled .444/.474/.556 triple slash line. The power should be coming and he’ll soon have both first base and outfield eligibility.

Manuel Margot: He’s shown no power this year (.026 ISO) but a .387 BABIP has his AVG up to .316. His playing time can be sporadic (started in two of the last four games). The hope for 15-20 steals and enough counting stats to not be a drag.

Adam Frazier: He’s been fine (.268/.339/.375, 1 SB) as the Mariners leadoff hitter.

César Hernández: Boring but useful as the Nationals leadoff hitter.

Hunter Dozier: It’s been a nice bounceback season for him (.268/.286/.488, 2 HR) since he’s upped his Pull% to 54%. One red flag is a plate discipline with a 31% K% and 0% BB%. For now, a nice bench bat to use as an injury replacement.

Oscar Mercado: His new home run approach (56% Pull%, just 34% GB, 27% K%) has led to a doubling of his ISO (.145 to .295) and 3 HR. He’s a new batter and is at least contributing this season.

Sheldon Neuse: He’s started 12 straight with the last four games as the #2 hitter (.341/.413/.439, 1 HR, 1 SB). A .481 BABIP will regress, but an improved eye (strikeouts under his career total, walks over the career stats) should help maintain some of the gains.

Santiago Espinal: He’s now the full-time second baseman for the Jays. While he has helped with home runs and steals, his overall stats (.214/.292/.357) are less than ideal.

Maikel Franco: He’s on a heater, at least for him, with a .719 OPS and 2 HR. He’s a fine third-base injury replacement.

Kyle Farmer: His playing every day and hitting at the top of the Reds lineup. A 15 HR, 4 SB, and .250 AVG are boring but possibly useful.

Jonathan Villar: He started hitting (.343/.375/.400) and has now started four straight games. He has not attempted a stolen base yet with his Sprint Speed (26.9 ft/s, 52 percentile) at a career-low.

Brandon Marsh: He’s been hitting (.313/.415/.500, 1 HR, 1 SB) and playing because of the Ward and Trout injuries. Once everyone is healthy, his playing time might dry up. If Jo Adell gets demoted, Marsh’s value jumps.

Eric Hosmer: A .487 BABIP has his triple-slash line bloated up to .388/.412/.510. He has not yet hit a homer with his 49% GB%. He’s just on a hot streak that could end any day.

Chad Pinder: He was hitting (.237/.237/.447, 2 HR, 1 SB) near the top of Oakland’s lineup until going on the COVID-IL. Once back in the lineup, he’ll continue to just be an accumulator.

Seth Beer: He’s started five straight games (2 vs LHP) and a .519 BABIP has him hitting .385/.442/.538. The profile isn’t that special (15 HR, .260 AVG), but playing time might make him a nice accumulator.

Joc Pederson: Continues to sit against lefties while crushing righties (.297/.333/.568, 3 HR, 1 SB). The Giants are scheduled to face five righties in six games next week.

Rowdy Tellez: On the strong side of a platoon with Keston Hiura and has shown some nice power this season (3 HR, .300 ISO).

Ji-Man Choi: He continues to crush righties (.355/.524/.645, .529 BABIP) but sits against all lefties.

Luis Arraez: He’s been great this season (.308/.386/.436) but has only started once against a lefty (6 total games). Over his career, he has a .651 OPS versus lefties and .820 versus righties.

Tyler Wade: A .409 BABIP fueled .321 AVG along with 2 SB has Wade in demand. He isn’t playing all the time (nine starts in 14 games) and that could go down even more once David Fletcher comes off the IL.

Michael Chavis: He has been on the short side of a platoon (career .760 vs LHP, .718 vs RHP) and taking advantage of the playing time (.400/.438/.700, 2 HR). The one interesting note on the 26-year-old is his 9% K% (32 PA). In his three previous seasons, it’s never been under 31%. He did drop it to 24% with Pittsburgh last season. He could have 20 HR power if the strikeout rate sticks. The improved plate discipline might help with making more solid contact. Monitor with caution.

Joey Wendle: He’s been playing short and third but sits against lefties. I just don’t see much upside for a 32-year-old platoon bat with a 61% GB%.

Cristian Pache: He’s at least starting every game while hitting at the bottom of Oakland’s lineup. The 23-year-old is showing some nice power with 2 HR and a new MaxEV of 108 mph. If he can get his .200 AVG up, he might be a nice little buy.

Jake Burger: He’s been the primary third baseman with Yoán Moncada on the IL. While Burger is being added, I’m not sure why since he is stuck at the bottom of the lineup and not productive when batting (.605 OPS).

Elvis Andrus: He’s playing and continuing to hit like crap (.663 OPS). I guess he sort of remains a stolen base play.

Johan Camargo: It’s tough to know if he has a full-time role but he’s hitting enough (.368/.400/.500) that he eventually might get it.

Catchers

Austin Nola: When starting, he bats first or second and is hitting .262/.327/.333 with 1 HR and 1 SB.

Sean Murphy: He’s started every game this year normally batting cleanup while hitting .259/.302/.569 with 3 HR.

Francisco Mejía: He’s going with a pull-heavy approach (43% Pull% to 59% Pull%) and he’s doubled his ISO (.156 to .304, 2 HR). Even with half-time at-bats, he seems rosterable in two-catcher leagues.

Zack Collins: He’s started six of the last seven games while hitting .286/.310/.571. If both come close to continuing, he’s a must-add in all two catcher formats.

Max Stassi: Besides hitting a couple of home runs, there are no positives in his profile.

Jonah Heim: In the six games he’s played, he’s hit .381/.458/.714. With Mitch Garver on the team, he’s just not going to see the volume to be rosterable.

Hitting Prospects

Nolan Gorman: If a fantasy manager is allowed to add prospects, Gorman and his seven home runs need to be immediately rostered.

Starters

Garrett Whitlock: He’s getting stretched out since he has yet to total 10 innings. The results have been great (10.2 K/9, 0.62 WHIP, 0.93 ERA) so far and he should be rostered in all formats.

Paul Blackburn: Considering the other options, Blackburn should be rostered in all formats. So far, he’s doing everything right to turn around his career. He’s not walking anyone (0.6 BB/9). He has a 53% GB%. His fastball velocity is up a tick and his strikeout rate is up to a career-high 8.4 K/9. He’s moved away from his fastball and added a cutter.

Michael Lorenzen: By going heavy with the fastball (36% to 58% usage), he has a 9.0 K/9 and 50% GB%. While a couple of home runs allowed has tanked his ERA (4.82), he’s performed fine.

Bruce Zimmermann: I dug into how Zimmermann is succeeding. First, he’s not walking many batters (3.0 BB/9). Second, the lefty’s changeup (22% SwStr%) and slider (26%) are getting elite results. Finally, his pitches are generating popups (four-seamer and change) or groundballs (curve and slider). The big red flag is his 91-mph four-seamer that has a 1.205 vsOPS this season. Here are its historic comps.

The four-seamer might perform better in the futureby getting twice as many swings-and-misses. It’s a tough profile to go all-in with but it’s likely the last week to roster him cheaply.

Josh Fleming: Two starts against Seattle and Minnesota next week. Besides a 5.40 ERA, he’s been great with an 11.7 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, and 67% GB%. Those stats are elite. His 24% K%-BB% is the 14th best (min 10 IP). His walk rate is the 4th highest. The combination has him with the 8th smallest xFIP (1.88). In his last start, the team used an opener with him that allowed him to get a Win even though he just threw 3.1 IP. It’ll key to keep these stats up as he throws deeper into games.

Chris Archer: I’m intrigued. This pitch count increased from 63 to 76 over his first two starts. He’s throwing just his fastball and slider (54% usage), so he may struggle the third time through the order. He’s got limited upside, but he’s one of the few pitchers who could average over a strikeout per inning.

Tyler Anderson: He’s been more than anyone expected with a 2.25 ERA, 9.0 K/9, 0.0 BB/9, and 60% GB%, especially on the Dodgers. Those numbers took a hit on Saturday night, but he’s still intriguing. He’s improved his results by backing away from his fastballs and focusing on his cutter (20% SwStr%) and changeup (21% SwStr%). One key to check on is the number of pitches he throws in his last start to see if he can get a Win.

Roansy Contreras: The rookie was demoted back to AAA to stretch out after being great in the majors (3.52 ERA, 11.7 K/9, 0.91 WHIP). Roster now until his price jumps.

Elieser Hernandez: Hernandez remains a decent strikeout pitcher (9.3 K/9) but will not take a step up as long as he continues to allow too many home runs (career 2.0 HR/9, 2.5 in 2022).

Miles Mikolas: He’s got two-starts next week versus the Mets and at the Diamondbacks. There is not much swing-and-miss in his profile (7.6 K/9) but it should be a couple of winnable games for him.

Erick Fedde: His 14.5 K%-BB% is comparable to Alek Manoah (14.9%) and Freddy Peralta (14.5%), but Fedde has been hit around (.366 BABIP, 1.4 HR/9). Fedde has backed off his sinker (down 1.4 mph, 1.3 SwStr% might be a factor on getting hit hard) and throwing his slider (13% SwStr%) and cutter (10% SwStr%) more.

Justin Steele: Steele was looking great (9 K in 9 IP) until his last start (4 ER, 3 BB, and 1 K in 2.2 IP). I’m not bailing after one start, but it’ll be hard to start him at Milwaukee. It’s tough to know if he is streamer or keeper this season.

Brad Keller: He’s been decent with a 2.55 ERA, 7.1 K/9, and 51% GB%. Not a difference-maker but a streaming option.

Jordan Hicks: In his first start, he went three innings and threw 46 pitches while striking out three batters and walking two. Even though he has a 99 mph fastball, it and its comps don’t jump off the page.

Daniel Lynch: There are some signs of improvement with an 8.1 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 so far. He’s throwing his fastball fewer times (52% to 44% usage) and going with his slider (12% SwStr%). His change has generated some swing-and-miss (19% SwStr%) but it’s getting destroyed if contact is made (1.811 vs OPS). I can see a path to some upside, but I’m not taking a chance just yet.

Michael Pineda: While he didn’t allow a run in his start, he only struck out two batters (5% SwStr%) over five innings. He leaned on his changeup and it didn’t generate one swing-and-miss.

James Kaprielian: He’s about to come off the IL after throwing 119 IP last season with a 4.07 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 9.3 K/9.

Dylan Bundy: He just completed an amazing two-step with 2 W, 10 K, and just 1 ER in 10 IP. Signs are mixed on a breakout. On the negative, his average fastball velocity is down 1.5 mph. His K/9 is down 1.4. On the positive, he’s throwing more strikes (54% Zone% to 58%) and walking almost no one (3.4 BB/9 to 0.9 BB/9).

Chris Paddack: It’s been an interesting nine innings thrown with 7 K, 50% GB%, 0 BB, a career-low 93.4 mph fastball, and a .355 BABIP leading to a 5.00 ERA.

Daulton Jefferies: It’s tough to get excited about a pitcher with a career 5.0 K/9 over 32 IP. This season, his .239 BABIP has his ERA down at 1.17 even though his ERA estimators are over 4.00. He might be able to limit some hard contact even though his 46% GB% doesn’t lead to extremes. The deal is that his pitches either generate pop-ups (cutter, change, and 4-seam) or groundballs (sinker and slider). He might settle into being a high-3.00 ERA pitcher.

Michael Wacha: The 1.88 ERA and 0.91 WHIP are nice, but they are being fueled by a .114 BABIP. The 4.4 BB/9, fastball down 1 mph, and continued home run issues (1.3 HR/9) have me looking elsewhere for now.

Dane Dunning: Some good traits (10.0 K/9, 51% GB%). Some bad traits (5.0 BB/9, sub-90 mph fastball). The bad is winning leading to a 1.89 WHIP and 5.68 ERA. I’d make a call that he’s possibly hurt with velocity dropping from each start (90.5 mph to 89.9 to 89.3) and his walk rate increasing (3.6 BB/9 to 4.9 to 6.8). There is no way I’m going to use him in his two-step next week versus Houston and Atlanta.

Cole Irvin: Irvin is being added for his two-step this past week with the second game being at Texas on Sunday. There is nothing exciting in his profile and should only be rostered for weeks like this one.

Drew Smyly: With his fastball velocity down almost 1 mph, he’s moved away from it (47% usage to 32%). Instead, he’s throwing his curveball (16% SwStr%, 56% GB%) and cutter (10% SwStr%, 64% GB%) more but not getting many strikeouts (5.5 K/9). Nothing points to any return to 2020.

Ross Stripling: I can’t buy into Stripling. Since joining the Blue Jays he’s been unrosterable (4.96 ERA with a matching 4.87 FIP) and nothing in his underlying stats has changed and points to an adjustment.

Bryce Elder: In two starts, the results haven’t been great (4.50 ERA, 1.40 WHIP). The main reason for the struggles is that his minor league walk issues (5 BB in 10 IP) followed him to the majors. I’m just not interested in the soft-tossing righty.

David Peterson: He’s filled in fine in the majors (0.64 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 6.4 K/9 in 14 IP), but a demotion to AAA destroyed all his fantasy value.

Joan Adon: He’s always dealt with walk issues and those have followed him to the majors (5.3 BB/9, 1.63 WHIP). In his last start, he only walked two in six innings but it’s going to take more than one game to rebrand him after a career of free passes.

Antonio Senzatela: He’s struck out two batters in eight innings so far and will face Philly on the road next week. Pass.

Dallas Keuchel: Keuchel was rostered for a potential two-step against Cleveland and Minnesota. Cleveland lit him up for 7 ER in 1 IP and because of the weather that pushed back his second start. Next week he is scheduled to face the Royals and Angels.

Chad Kuhl: A Rockies pitcher with a 7.8 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9 is not the person to roster on your fantasy team.

 

Pitching Prospects

Max Meyer: The Marlins prospect has a 12.3 K/9, 0.55 WHIP, and 1.23 ERA in 14.2 IP.

Relievers – Saves based rankings

Tanner Rainey: Good reliever who is the closer.

Jorge López: Now a good reliever who is the closer.

Andrés Muñoz: Elite reliever who might be the closer.

Hansel Robles: Good reliever who might be the closer.

Josh Staumont: Good reliever who is sharing the closer duties.

Jake Diekman: OK reliever who might be sharing the closer’s role.

Héctor Neris: OK reliever who will be the closer with Ryan Pressly on the IL.

Dany Jiménez: OK reliever who will be the closer with Lou Trivino on the IL.

Michael Fulmer: Good reliever who is the backup closer.

Clay Holmes: Good reliever who is the backup closer.

Kendall Graveman: Good reliever who is the backup closer.

Mychal Givens: OK reliever who is the backup closer.

Yimi García: OK reliever who is the backup closer.

Brock Burke: Possibly elite reliever who could get Saves.

Daniel Hudson: OK reliever who is a couple of steps away from closing.

Aaron Loup: OK reliever who is a couple of steps away from closing.

Steven Wilson: OK reliever who is a couple of steps away from closing.

Adam Cimber: OK reliever who is a couple of steps away from closing.

Michael King: Elite multi-inning reliever.

Cristian Javier: Elite multi-inning reliever.

Wil Crowe: Now a decent multi-inning reliever.

Keegan Thompson: Good multi-inning reliever.