Waiver Wire Report (Week 27)
In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.
Batters
Mark Canha: Solid boring add with 11 HR and 11 SB while hitting .268/.360/.413.
Nelson Velázquez: In 123 PA with the Royals, he has 12 HR. Also, started eight straight games. Power only play.
Willi Castro: Continues to find a way into the lineup moving from centerfield to third base with Taylor off the IL. Speed option (32 SB).
Evan Carter: Continues to start (batting ninth) even with Garcia off the IL. Hitting a resectable .324/.447/.676 with 3 HR and 3 SB.
Ceddanne Rafaela: He continues to perform (.295/.323/.475, 2 HR, 1 SB in 65 PA) and the Red Sox continue to hit him leadoff.
Johan Rojas: Started eight times in the last 10 games. So far this season, he’s been a nice source of speed (14 SB) and average (.300).
Elehuris Montero: Better production in the 2H (.267/.329/.445) while starting in nine of the last ten games.
Ryan O’Hearn: The Orioles first baseman with Mountcastle on the IL. Might just be in a platoon (vs 5 RHP next week). So far, he has 14 HR and .310 AVG in 344 PA.
Mark Vientos: Hitting (.270/.313/.540 with 5 HR in September) with 13 straight starts.
Jason Heyward: Starts only against righties with the team expected to face six next week including four at Coors.
Matt Vierling: Leading off but that’s about it (9 HR, 6 SB, 6 CS, .260 AVG).
Luis García: Started in nine out of 10 games with one game against a lefty (was sitting vs LHP). In September, he is hitting .277/.320/.468 with 2 HR and 1 SB.
Oswaldo Cabrera: Starting in the outfield (10 straight games) but not a difference maker with a .221 AVG, 5 HR, and 8 SB in 297 PA.
Cavan Biggio: Eight starts in the last 10 games all over the field (1B, 2B, 3B, RF) while performing fine this season (9 HR, 5 SB, .232 AVG in 302 PA).
Brendan Rodgers: Seven upcoming home games in Denver will have his demand up. After struggling for a couple of months, he’s hitting .295/.368/.377 but no power (.082 ISO). I’m guessing he’s not 100% healthy.
Heston Kjerstad: Started in five of eight games, all at DH. Has 2 HR in 22 PA so far with a 32% K%.
Junior Caminero: The top-10 prospect has a bright future but his fantasy value might be limited with the Rays, who never use the same lineup twice and only have five games next week. Tough to count on for just this week.
Robbie Grossman: He is sitting now with Garcia off the IL (one start in four games).
Wilyer Abreu: Hurt (hand) and hasn’t started in five games.
Tyrone Taylor: After being a regular, he sits with Yelich back in the lineup.
Catchers
Gabriel Moreno: Great catcher with 7 HR, 6 SB, and .290 AVG.
Bo Naylor: While a .237 AVG could see improvement, his 9 HR and 5 SB are nice.
Luis Campusano: Has provided 7 HR with a .312 AVG.
Shea Langeliers: Nice power source (21 HR) but a drag on batting average (.202 AVG).
Jake Rogers: Nice power source (20 HR) but a drag on batting average (.218 AVG).
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Moreno C ARI | 38% | 39% | 1% |
| Mark Canha RF MIL | 30% | 45% | 15% |
| Evan Carter CF TEX | 30% | 34% | 4% |
| Willi Castro LF MIN | 30% | 33% | 3% |
| Shea Langeliers C OAK | 23% | 25% | 2% |
| Heston Kjerstad DH BAL | 22% | 26% | 4% |
| Bo Naylor C CLE | 22% | 24% | 2% |
| Junior Caminero 3B TB | 20% | 29% | 9% |
| Ceddanne Rafaela CF BOS | 20% | 21% | 1% |
| Nelson Velazquez RF KC | 17% | 18% | 1% |
| Ryan O’Hearn 1B BAL | 16% | 25% | 9% |
| Luis Campusano C SD | 12% | 19% | 7% |
| Luis Garcia 2B WAS | 11% | 12% | 1% |
| Brendan Rodgers 2B COL | 10% | 12% | 2% |
| Wilyer Abreu CF BOS | 10% | 12% | 2% |
| Elehuris Montero 1B COL | 9% | 10% | 1% |
| Johan Rojas CF PHI | 8% | 11% | 3% |
| Mark Vientos DH NYM | 8% | 10% | 2% |
| Oswaldo Cabrera LF NYY | 8% | 9% | 1% |
| Matt Vierling RF DET | 7% | 9% | 2% |
| Robbie Grossman LF TEX | 6% | 8% | 2% |
| Jake Rogers C DET | 5% | 10% | 5% |
| Jason Heyward RF LAD | 4% | 6% | 2% |
| Cavan Biggio 2B TOR | 4% | 5% | 1% |
| Tyrone Taylor RF MIL | 2% | 5% | 3% |
Starters
Reese Olson (vs KC, vs CLE): A solid season with 8.8 K/9, 1.11 WHIP, and 4.13 ERA.
Adrian Houser (vs STL, vs CHC): A fine talent (7.6 K/9, 4.35 ERA, 4.27 xFIP, 1.43 WHIP) who has improved from the first to second half (8% K%-BB% to 18% K%-BB%).
Sawyer Gipson-Long (vs KC): In three starts (15 IP), he has a 12.0 K/9, 1.07 WHIP, and 2.40 ERA (3.34 xFIP). He is just cutting through batters with his slider (24% SwStr%) and changeup (32% SwStr%). Ride the hot hand one more time.
Tanner Houck (vs TB, at BAL): One of the better available two-start options, but he’s struggling with his command to end the season. In the second half, he has a 4.6 BB/9 leading to a 1.57 WHIP and 4.60 ERA (4.68 xFIP). A Wins and strikeouts play.
José Butto (vs PHI): So far in three September starts, he has a 2.08 ERA (3.64 xFIP), 9.9 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, and 0.98 WHIP. The big improvement was finding the strike zone. Before September 1st, he had an 8.6 BB/9 and 1.77 WHIP.
Zack Thompson (at MIL, vs CIN): Thompson was doing great with his new slider (18% SwStr%), but his results have fallen off in September as his velocity has come crashing down.
His underlying talent has been fine in September (4.30 xFIP,16% K%-BB%, 1.27 WHIP) but he has a 5.73 ERA
Connor Phillips (at STL): He’s been struggling with walks (4.0 BB/9) and home runs (2.9 HR/9). That pair is a deadly combo and his ERA is up at 5.74 (5.06 xFIP). Right now, he has an elite slider (22%SwStr%) and nothing else. His 96-mph fastball is disappointing with a 5% SwStr%. Gamble.
Matt Waldron (at SF): The knuckle-baller has been OK on the season (4.58 ERA, 4.63 xFIP, 7.4 K/9, 1.25 WHIP) and could be worth a shot against the Giants.
Joey Lucchesi (vs MIA): He has a 0.98 ERA in the second half by not allowing a home run yet, a .273 BABIP, and 83% LOB%. His 4.60 xFIP isn’t the worst of the pitchers featured today, but not ideal. Hope for a better option.
Cal Quantrill (at DET): I can’t recommend a pitcher with a 90% LOB% in the 2H leading to a 1.90 ERA (5.96 xFIP). He keeps changing his pitch mix around which makes it tough to determine his true talent. Maybe that’s the point.
Zack Greinke (at DET): This move seems like managers are trying to take advantage of the Detroit opponent. Greinke has been horrible this season with a 5.37 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and 6.1 K/9. I’d focus on other arms.
JP Sears (at LAA): Horrible in the 2H (5.37 ERA, 5.40 xFIP, 1.57 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 in 63 IP). Probably a non-factor if it wasn’t for the start against the Angels.
Martín Pérez (at LAA, at SEA): His recent results look better but he has been throwing out of the bullpen then (5.27 xFIP starting, 3.83 xFIP relieving).
Jackson Rutledge (at ATL): I can’t find a reason to recommend the 24-year-old prospect with 10 major-league innings (8.10 ERA, 6.22 xFIP, 1.80 WHIP, and 3.6 K/9), especially since he is lined up for the season’s last start against Atlanta.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Quantrill SP CLE | 34% | 40% | 6% |
| JP Sears SP OAK | 32% | 38% | 6% |
| Martin Perez SP TEX | 29% | 31% | 2% |
| Reese Olson SP DET | 28% | 39% | 11% |
| Sean Manaea RP SF | 20% | 21% | 1% |
| Tanner Houck SP BOS | 15% | 18% | 3% |
| Connor Phillips SP CIN | 11% | 14% | 3% |
| Zack Thompson RP STL | 11% | 12% | 1% |
| Adrian Houser SP MIL | 9% | 17% | 8% |
| Zack Greinke SP KC | 7% | 8% | 1% |
| Jhony Brito SP NYY | 7% | 8% | 1% |
| Jose Butto SP NYM | 6% | 13% | 7% |
| Sawyer Gipson-Long SP DET | 5% | 24% | 19% |
| Joey Lucchesi SP NYM | 3% | 5% | 2% |
| Matt Waldron SP SD | 1% | 1% | 0% |
| Jackson Rutledge | UNK | UNK | UNK |
Relievers: Saves-based ranks
Julian Merryweather: Above-average reliever who is the closer.
Adam Ottavino: OK reliever who is the closer.
José Leclerc: OK reliever who could be the closer.
James McArthur: Average reliever who might now be the closer.
Tyler Kinley: Below-average reliever who still may be the closer.
A.J. Minter: Good reliever who is the backup closer.
Colin Poche: Good reliever who is one of the backup closers.
Robert Stephenson: Good reliever who is one of the backup closers.
Robert Suarez: OK reliever who is the backup closer.
Caleb Ferguson: OK reliever who is a couple steps away from closing.
Will Vest: Good reliever who is a couple of steps from closing.
Nick Martinez: OK reliever who is a couple of steps away from closing.
Shawn Armstrong:Good reliever who is a few steps away from closing.
Jhony Brito: He is working out of the bullpen with a 4.43 ERA (4.85 xFIP), 1.23 WHIP, and 6.9 K/9.
Sean Manaea: Doesn’t cut it as a starter (40 IP, 5.09 ERA, 4.75 xFIP, 1.38 WHIP, 8.4 K/9) and just a fine multi-inning reliever. I can’t get a read on his usage coming up next week.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Minter RP ATL | 24% | 25% | 1% |
| Adam Ottavino RP NYM | 23% | 27% | 4% |
| Nick Martinez RP SD | 14% | 15% | 1% |
| Julian Merryweather RP CHC | 13% | 15% | 2% |
| Jose Leclerc RP TEX | 11% | 12% | 1% |
| Colin Poche RP TB | 9% | 11% | 2% |
| Robert Stephenson RP TB | 6% | 7% | 1% |
| Caleb Ferguson RP LAD | 4% | 5% | 1% |
| Robert Suarez RP SD | 4% | 5% | 1% |
| Tyler Kinley RP COL | 3% | 4% | 1% |
| Shawn Armstrong RP TB | 2% | 3% | 1% |
| Will Vest RP DET | 0% | 2% | 2% |
| James McArthur RP KC | 0% | 1% | 1% |
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Which is better: an “average” reliever, or an “OK” reliever?