Waiver Wire Report (Week 24)

Like the last couple of weeks, this week is again low on usable hitters, but there are plenty of one-start options on the wire.

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.

Hitters

Jonathan Villar: He’s started and leadoff in 12 of the last 13 games. He’s been a solid all-around producer by hitting .264/.338/.456 with 18 HR and 12 SB.

Brandon Belt: While not exciting, he plays every day and would have been on pace for 40 HR season if he had stayed healthy.

J.P. Crawford: He has leadoff for 28 straight games while hitting .295/.365/.513 with 20 HR and 10 SB. All around contributor.

Nick Solak: His second-half rebound (.757 OPS) has his season-long stats looking better (.241 AVG, 11 HR, 6 SB).

Frank Schwindel: The legend continues to grow. He’s hitting .333/.382/.641 with 12 HR. Pitchers have not been able to find “The Tank’s” weakness … for now.

Bobby Dalbec: He’s still playing by starting 10 of the last 12 games while being on fire since the break (.294/.369/.651). He’s providing everything but steals.

Lane Thomas: In 101 PA since joining the Nationals, he’s hitting .314/.406/.523 with 3 HR and 2 SB.

Austin Hays: A steady outfield contributor (.253/.299/.442, 16 HR, 3 SB). The only issue is that his low OBP (.307 for his career) drops his value in on-base and points leagues.

Leody Taveras: His full-season production has been horrible (.474 OPS). His second-half surge (.658 OPS) has him just over replacement level. While his speed can be a difference-maker (5 SB in 2H), his .719 OPS in September might just keep him playing and at the top of the lineup.

Edmundo Sosa: He is having a great run (.333/.404/.522) in the second half. He’s dealing with a wrist injury, so he may continue to miss time.

DJ Peters: He’s showing 30 HR power but nothing else. He might be useful in some deeper leagues.

Leury García: He’s started 13 of 15 games while hitting .259/.333/.355 with 3 HR and 6 SB on the season. Kind of an accumulator.

Alcides Escobar: He continues to play and hit for an OK batting average (.272/.328.375, 2 HR, 2 SB).

Kevin Pillar: He (.221/.269/.409) was a nice add since he’s playing every day with Brandon Nimmo on the IL. The playing time might come to an end next weekend.

Josh Lowe: He’s a nice prospect who was dominating AAA (.282/.369/.540 with 21 HR and 24 SB). The biggest issue will be when and where he’ll play on the MLB team.

Matt Duffy: He’s sort of playing about two-thirds of the time while hitting .264/.339/.329 with 3 HR and 5 SB.

Catcher

Alejandro Kirk: A must-add catcher at this point since he’s in the Toronto lineup most days while hitting for power (.274/.355/.489 with 7 HR).

Starters

Luis Gil: He’s been tough to time but he looks to be lined up for two starts against Minnesota and Cleveland next week. The Yankees have been limiting him to ~90 pitches, so he should be able to accrue some Wins.

Adrian Houser: His high groundball rate has his ERA (3.25) about a run under his estimators. While not sexy, he’s been productive all season.

Bailey Ober: He has settled into what should be expected (4.00 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) for someone with a decent strikeout (9.3 K/9) and walk (1.9 BB/9) rate but gives up way too many home runs (1.8 HR/9). Not a great matchup at Toronto next week.

Eric Lauer: While Lauer doesn’t have Houser’s groundball rate, he is just as boringly productive (8.5 K/9, 1.18 WHIP, 3.18 ERA).

Paolo Espino: For now, he’s the bad pitcher with two great matchups play (vs MIA, vs COL). Everything points to him being a low-4.00’s ERA pitcher with a good WHIP (1.8 BB/9). For the fantasy managers who need a Hail Mary, Espino is their guy to bet on.

Joe Ryan: I miss judged Ryan. I’m just not a fan of a pitcher who gets by with mainly a 92-mph fastball. He’s been able to generally keep the ball in the yard (0.8 HR/9) with just a 32% GB%. Here are the HR/9 for starters with similar groundball rates (min 60 IP, GB% between 31.5% and 32.7%).

Name: HR/9
Marco Gonzales: 1.9
John Means: 1.8
Griffin Jax: 2.5
Andrew Heaney: 2.0

He’s good, but not even close to 2.25 ERA good.

Michael Wacha: While his ERA estimators point to a 4.00 ERA, he’s on a three-year stretch of getting hit around (1.9 HR/9, 1.49 WHIP). There is some hope, over the last four games, he’s dumped his cutter and is now throwing a sinker and curve. Over that time he has a 3.10 ERA, 12.4 K/9, and 0.93 WHIP. It might be worth buying into the change.

Brady Singer: He’s been lights out over his last for starts (1.46 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 1.18 WHIP). During those starts, he backed off throwing his sinker as much. One issue is that he still throws his changeup and it just doesn’t miss bats (1% SwStr%).

Jesús Luzardo: While Miami needs to progress on keeping pitchers healthy, they know how to get the best out of them when they are on the mound with Luzardo being no exception. After a rocky start, he has a 2.60 ERA, 9.9 K/9, and 0.87 WHIP in his last five starts with each one being over five innings.

Drew Rasmussen: He is scheduled for two starts next week (@TOR, vsDET) so he’s interesting. The biggest issue will be getting a Win. While he has slowly built up his pitch count, he was at 71 pitches in his last start and 74 in the one before that. He’s only thrown 5 IP in two of 32 games this year.

Luke Weaver: He’s been fine since returning from the IL (3.27 ERA, 4.37 xFIP, 5.7 K/9, 52% GB%, 0.91 WHIP). He might be a drop with just one start against the Dodgers (Urias) next week.

Taylor Hearn: Since he decided to quit walking batters (0.8 BB/9) over his last four starts, he has a 1.06 WHIP and 3.80 ERA. He’s moved away from his four-seamer during the stretch and is throwing his sinker more. It’s a streamable profile, but the problem is that he lines up to just face the White Sox next week.

Sean Nolin: Suspended with his next start possibly against Miami next week. He’s been hit around (.393 BABIP, 2.0 HR/9) so his ERA is up at 5.60 while his ERA estimators are in the low 4.00’s. There are worse options.

A.J. Alexy: The magic continues. A 0.00 ERA even though he has a 4.1 BB/9 and a 19% GB%. His xFIP and SIERA are in the high 4.00’s so regression might be coming fast against Houston on Monday.

Antonio Senzatela: Basically, he’s a bad clone of Adrian Houser but also has to pitch in Colorado.

Packy Naughton: The 25-year-old lefty threw five shutout innings against the Padres and has two-starts next week (@ CWS, vs OAK). His 2.57 ERA is enticing, but his ERA estimators and projections point to a 5.00 ERA pitcher. Buyer beware.

Justin Steele: He’s in the middle of a two-start week with middling results in the first start against the Reds (5 IP, 4 K, 2 BB, 3 ER). Overall, I’m not interested. His results from being in the bullpen (14.2 K/9, 1.05 WHIP, 2.03 ERA) are covering up that he’s been a subpar starter (4.76 ERA, 5.07 xFIP, 7.2 K/9, 4.4 BB/9).

Logan Allen: He’s in the middle of a two-step where the Twins lit him up for 5 ER and 8 H in 5.1 IP. The Brewers and Woodruff are up next. Looking over his profile, he doesn’t do anything average or better to dream off. It’s fine to ignore him.

Jackson Kowar: His last two starts were almost identical with the only difference is that he allowed two home runs against Baltimore. I’m hands off at this point based solely on the 5.8 BB/9 over his 17 IP. Until he gets his walks down, he’s no one to take a chance on.

Jon Lester: Fantasy managers are adding Lester to …???? At least I know who gets ranked last.

Relievers – Saves bases rankings

Andrew Kittredge: Great reliever who will get most of the Saves.

Dylan Floro: Decent pitcher who is the closer.

Rowan Wick: OK reliever (too many walks) who is the closer.

Carlos Estévez: OK reliever who is the closer.

Andrew Chafin: Good reliever who is most likely the closer.

Garrett Whitlock: Good reliever who is sharing the closer’s role.

Blake Treinen: Great reliever who is next in line to close

Tyler Wells: Good reliever who has recently gotten a couple of Saves.

Jarlin García: Good reliever who is not near to being is the closer.