Waiver Wire Report (Week 14)

I always rank the players by who I’d draft first in a redraft league. It’s getting to the point in the season when an individual team’s focus may need to be category-based (e.g. AVG or SB) so move down the list since several players may be able to fill those needs. Also, if a team is needing a closer, this is the week to do your homework. Several bullpens are up in the air and with other managers taking the day off to drink beer and blow stuff up, it may be time to grab a couple.

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.

Hitters

Luis Urías: He continues to be a productive hitter (.242/.332/.425, 10 HR, 3 SB) with his power transitioning him from bench bat to everyday option.

J.P. Crawford: A hot June (.352/.400/.528) got him on everyone’s radar but was there a talent change or has it been just luck (.407 BABIP). The only possible change I’ve seen in the numbers is that he’s hitting the ball harder.

Month: Hard%, Barrell%
Apr: 25%, 0%
May: 36%, 4%
June: 33%, 7%

I looked for any reported injuries and found none. I did find that he added muscle this off-season. I’m sure a narrative could be created around him just getting to his new power (or there was a hidden injury).

Bobby Bradley: If any fantasy team is in need of power, Bradley is a must-add (8 HR in 23 games, .346 ISO). The key for his fantasy value is keeping his strikeout rate under 30%. He’s solidified himself into the lineup by starting 17 straight games, so playing time is not an issue.

Akil Baddoo: Continues to play and hit .282/.371/.486 with 5 HR against only righties. His 12 stolen bases have moved him out of the streaming category to the must-start bin.

Brendan Rodgers: He has started 11 of 12 games while hitting .286/.367/.473 with 5 HR and 0 SB. While there was potential for stolen bases when he was drafted, his last stolen base attempt was in 2018 in AA. While he’ll likely not continue to hit better on the road (.851 OPS) than at home (.831 OPS), he’s become rosterable player in 12 and 15-team leagues.

Myles Straw: He provides some batting average (.267 AVG) and steals (12 SB), but no power (.067). He needed a good June (.845 OPS) to just barely hit enough (.675 OPS) to MLB replacement level bat. Ride the hot bat.

Luis Arraez: I’ve been a little surprised at how much he’s been starting (12 of the last 14 games). He’s not going to provide many home runs (1) or steals (0), but he’s always been a positive in batting average (.281, .316 for his career). Since coming off the IL in mid-June, he’s been batting leadoff against righties, so he’s also a decent source of Runs.

Keston Hiura: He been great in his first week since being recalled (.296/.394/.667, 3 HR). The key for the turnaround is a 27% K% compared to his 39% K% when he was demoted last time. The improvement is by swinging less out of the strike zone thereby leading to more contact.

I still skeptical that anything has changed, but he needs to be rostered to see if the current production continues.

Jake Burger: Complete gamble. After finally getting healthy, he’s shown some power in AAA (.275 ISO, 10 HR). I’m a little worried about how his plate discipline will stabilize (24% K%, 7% BB% in AAA) and the effects of shifting (47% Pull% in AAA).

Daz Cameron: He was my top recommendation last week based on the power and speed. Since I wrote the recommendation, he’s gone 1 for 12 (starting three of five games). I believe the power-speed combination is legit, but the batting average (.220 has always been an issue). The problem right now is that he’s not differentiating himself (.718 OPS) from the other outfielders in Detroit. Add and bench if space is available.

Gavin Sheets: Sheets has started four straight games and is hitting .400/.412/.933 since being called up. In AAA, he was hitting .292/.352/.472 with seven homers. He probably should be rostered to see if there is any kind of breakout going on, but his projection (.239/.304/.377) is almost identical to Freddy Galvis’s (.239/.296/.381).

Garrett Cooper: Similar production (.272 AVG and 6 HR) to Brendan Rodgers. He’s almost hitting exactly at his career averages (2021: .272/.361/.433, career: .279/.348/.445). I just don’t think Cooper have much upside but is rosterable in deeper formats.

Christian Walker: He might finally be getting healthy by hitting .253/.292/.407 with 3 HR in June. Maybe he’s getting back to his 2019 form when he hit 29 HR.

Enrique Hernández: He’s started 13 straight games and leadoff for six straight. He has been hot over the past couple of weeks
(.295/.411/.659, 4 HR) to deserve added playing time.

Harold Ramirez: While he’s been playing every day, he’s just not differentiating himself with his bland profile (.275 AVG, 6 HR, 2 SB). Bench outfielder.

Wilmer Flores: He’s started nine of ten games at third base with Longoria on the IL. Since returning from the IL in late May, Flores has hit .318/.365/.557 with 5 HR and just a .307 BABIP. His playing time could drop once Longoria returns.

Steven Duggar: Unrosterable next week since he only starts against righties and the Giants are scheduled to face only three of them. There is a chance he is the permanent center fielder with Dubon demoted to the minors. Check today’s lineup versus a lefty.

Yonathan Daza: With seven straight home games (home OPS: .856, road OPS: .621), it’s understandable he was rostered for some batting average (.351 AVG at home) help. Sit or drop when on the road.

LaMonte Wade Jr.: When playing this season, he’s been a great contributor (.269 AVG, 7 HR, 2 SB). Right now, he’s playing first base but has been sitting against lefties with Ruf playing instead. The Giants are down a couple of outfielders (Dubon and Tauchman), so Wade might slot in there. All this matters because the Giants are facing three lefties in six games next week. Wade can’t be started if only playing three times in a week. Check today’s lineup (vs LHP) for guidance.

Jace Peterson: With Kolten Wong on the IL, Peterson has started six straight games at second base. Peterson has been surprisingly productive .262/.392/.452 with three steals and home runs. The improvements are from an elevated walk rate (18%) and more balls in the air (54% GB% to 37% GB%, Avg LA from 7 to 18 degrees). The key for his value is if the playing time and hitting adjustments stick.

Jon Berti: His fantasy value (i.e. stolen bases, 1 for 2) gets crushed since he’s hitting out of the NL eighth spot. He deserves the last spot with a .227/.324/.345 triple slash line. He may not even start stealing bases if he starts hitting since he’s only been seven for 11 on the bases this year.

Catchers

Luis Torrens: He’s been a huge source of power since being promoted this last time (.262/.340/.714, 6 HR). A must-own in two catcher leagues. Streamable in one catcher formats.

Tyler Stephenson: He (.272/.376/.422, 5 HR) is on the short side of a platoon with Tucker Barnhart and sneaks in a game at first base every couple of weeks.

Elias Diaz: A few games at home against the minor league pitching staffs of Pittsburgh and St. Louis has helped revive his season with a home run in four straight games. He remains a stream at home (.787 OPS) and sit on the road (.482 OPS) play.

Reese McGuire: When I wrote last week’s report, he had a .321 AVG supported by a .393 BABIP. Since then, it’s a .222 AVG with a .286 BABIP dropping is season-long batting average down to .302. Never buy into a BABIP fueled hot streak.

Hitting Prospects

Jarren Duran: Since he’s no longer part of the Olympic roster, the chances of him being promoted increase. He’s hitting .278/.372/.599 with 15 HR and 10 SB in AAA.

Starters

Patrick Sandoval: His 3.5 BB/9 is barely rosterable, but is offset by the 9.4 K/9. He’s bumped up his strikeouts (7.2 K/9 to 11.5 K/9) in June by throwing his slider (25% SwStr%, 79% GB%) more.

Zach Thompson: I’m amazed he’s still on this list with his results so far (12.5 K/9, 1.00 WHIP, 1.50 ERA). When he starts allowing home runs (0.0 HR/9), his ERA estimators have him valued as a mid-3’s ERA pitcher.

Joe Ross: He continues to be a different pitcher (2.40 ERA, 3.66 xFIP, 9.6 K/9, 0.97 WHIP) after his May 26th start when he started featuring his sinker. One issue I do see is that he’s starting to move away from his sinker so his struggles might return.

Kolby Allard: He continues to be a reliable starter to start two-thirds of the time. I worried that he’d not be able to keep up his fastball velocity as a starter, but it leveled out quickly. Remains productive.

Caleb Smith: Another high walk (5.2 BB/9, 1.31 WHIP as a starter) guy, but his 3.41 ERA as a starter is enticing. He’s been able to keep his home runs to a minimum (1.0 HR/9) considering his low 28% GB%.

Kyle Muller: In four appearances so far, he has a 3.45 ERA, 11.5 K/9, and 4.6 BB/9. The high-walk, high-strikeout profile is a continuation of his minor league stats. Roster for the upside but be ready to drop if everything goes south.

Tylor Megill: He’s interesting (11.6 K/9, 1.29 WHIP, 4.82 ERA, 3.59 xFIP) if he stays in the majors. So far, he’s getting by with a good slider (21% SwStr%, 57% GB%) and change (28% SwStr%, 50% GB%). He has a nice two-start week to roster and monitor to help evaluate him some more.

Paolo Espino: The 34-year-old has been great when just being measured by his 2.48 ERA. When diving a little deeper, he’s been OK in a Chris Flexen 플렉센 sort of way with a low strikeout (6.3 K/9) and low walk (1.6 BB/9) rate. I’d not be opposed to rostering him if the matchup is decent, but this upcoming week he’s lined up to face Yu Darvish and the Padres.

José Suarez: He been good, but as the Angels long reliever (> 3 IP per appearance) for most of the season, he’s been good (1.98 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 1.10 WHIP). This upcoming week, he’s scheduled to make two starts (vs BOS, at SEA). I am a little worried that he might not be able to navigate a lineup for a second or third time. When he has faced a lineup for a second time this year, he has a 5.51 xFIP. Also, he’s just a two-pitch guy (fastball-change) who mixes in a horrible curveball (fastball more effective). I’m not sure if I’d start him this week, but it would be a nice week to roster-and-monitor his two starts to see if he’s a rosterable starter.

Merrill Kelly 켈리: Some small changes in June make him interesting, but the changes haven’t yet resulted in improved results. Comparing the first two months to the rest of the season, his fastball velocity has jumped from 91.4 mph to 92.7 mph and his cutter (11% SwStr%) usage went from 8.5% to 20.5%. He’s likely a 4.00 ERA pitcher going forward.

Drew Smyly: His early struggles (8.05 ERA in April) were from a high home run rate (4.3 HR/9). As his home run rate regressed downward (1.5 HR/9 in May, 0.7 HR/9 in June), so have the results (4.24 ERA in May, 2.84 ERA in June). At this point, his season-long stats are in line with his talent level (~4.50 ERA pitcher).

Wily Peralta: I had no idea he was still in the league. He’s riding a .190 BABIP to a 1.07 WHIP and 3.21 ERA. All of his ERA estimators are in the 5.00 range mainly from a low 5.1 K/9. There haven’t been any changes to his pitch mix so he’s just a 20% streamer against weak AL Central. And he gets two of those weak matchups this week against Texas (Allard) and Minnesota (Ober).

Ryan Weathers: He was demoted as his strikeout kept dropping along with his fastball velocity.

At its peak, his fastball averaged 95.7 mph and it was down to 93.2 mph in his last appearance. It’s tough to value him at different velocities with so little previous data and no stable production.

David Peterson: His monthly results were headed downhill (19% K%-BB% to 16% to 8%) and they might be explained by the oblique strain that landed him on the IL.

Vince Velasquez: A one-third streamer whose 4.22 ERA and 1.28 will drag down fantasy over a season. His 4.6 BB/9 is inflating his ERA and WHIP.

Eric Lauer: Another steamer option who should see his roster rate jump up and down depending on his opponents. A couple of red flags are a June 5.3 BB/9 (1.55 WHIP) and declining fastball velocity.

Zach Davies: Even if Davies’s 3.82 June ERA is his true talent, it’s not (4.67 xFIP), his 4.6 BB/9 for the month is completely unrosterable. In Roto, WHIP counts just as much as ERA. Roster a talented pitcher.

J.C. Mejia: Some bad left-on-base luck (54% LOB%) has pushed his ERA over 6.00 with his ERA estimators estimating his talent in the low-4’s ERA. I’m not able to find that single item he needs to fix. Instead, he’s struggling across the board.

Luis Patiño: He’s been effective in the minors and the majors, but Rays keep promoting him for just spot starts. Impossible to roster without knowing his usage.

Max Kranick: After shutting out the Cardinals over 5 IP, he was demoted back to AAA. Very blah and I’ll take a harder stance once he’s part of the rotation.

Jerad Eickhoff: Ineffective and back in the minors.

Pitching Prospects

Shane Baz: He has just been promoted to AAA (12.9 K/9, 0.86 WHIP, 1.29 ERA) after dominating AA (13.5 K/9, 2.48 ERA, 0.73 WHIP).

Closers – Saves based rankings

Cole Sulser: Borderline great reliever who looks to have the closer’s role.

Amir Garrett: OK reliever who may be the closer with other candidates on the IL.

José Cisnero: Good reliever who is sharing the closer’s role.

Gregory Soto: Decent reliever who is sharing the closer’s role.

José Alvarado: OK reliever who may have lost his hold on the closer’s role.

Archie Bradley: Bad reliever who may be part of a closer committee.

Adam Ottavino: Good reliever who is in the backup closer’s role.

Paul Sewald: Great reliever who may be backing up the closer.

Brad Brach: OK reliever who looks to be the current backup closer.

Collin McHugh: A decent middle reliever who has taken the week off.