Waiver Wire Report (Week 13)

A couple of rookie hitters will get most of this week’s attention but for teams needing Saves, a few options have come available.

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.

Hitters

Vinnie Pasquantino: The 24-year-old rookie was great in AAA (.280/.372/.576, 18 HR, 23 SB) but has just 11 MLB PA. He might be a fantasy team’s last chance to add some power (112.7 maxEV). Expect a few teams to push up the bidding and put their remaining FAAB budgets in jeopardy.

Jarren Duran: He’s been the leadoff hitter since mid-June while batting .333/.387/.544 with 1 HR and 4 SB in 62 PA. The only issue around his fantasy value will be his role and playing time once Enrique Hernández returns for the IL. My bet is that Jackie Bradley Jr. goes to the bench.

Nico Hoerner: The 25-year-old Hoerner has turned into a decent all-around bat (4 HR, 6 SB, .308 AVG) while being qualified at second and short. He should at least be considered as a bench option in shallow leagues.

Juan Yepez: Since Tyler O’Neill went on the IL, Yepez (.283/.326/.506, 9 HR) has started 11 straight games. The talent is legit but track this playing time when O’Neill comes back.

Andrew McCutchen: A well-around bat (2.58 AVG, 7 HR, 5 SB) who has started 12 straight games.

Garrett Cooper: A steady accumulator (.321 AVG, 5 HR, 0 SB), especially with batting average, who is qualified at two positions (1B and OF).

Isaac Paredes: Paredes has been hitting for a ton of power (11 HR, .339 ISO) by going full pull (53% Pull%) and flyball (48% FB%) happy. As I write this, he is 1 for 5 on the day with 1 HR. I think that type of production should be expected going forward.

Jack Suwinski: He started nine straight games while hitting .214/.300/.460 with 13 HR and 2 SB. Nice power-only option who has improved throughout the season.

Darick Hall: In 13 PA, Hall has already hit three homers from the cleanup spot, so there will be no sneaking him by in FAAB this week. The 26-year-old hit .269/.346/.548 with 10 HR and 5 SB in the AAA. I’m not sure he is the player to break the bank on, but I’d not be surprised if someone did.

Evan Longoria: A boring (8 HR, .256 AVG) third-base qualified bat.

Jake Meyers: In 25 PA, Meyers is hitting .280/.280/.440 with a 36% K% and .400 BABIP. Meyers has a middling power-speed profile. His best attribute is that he is playing every day in Houston’s lineup.

Tyrone Taylor: Taylor is now playing every day, but struggled in June with a .573 OPS. He’s one of several available power (9 HR, .228 AVG, 1 SB) only bats (e.g. Paredes, Suwinski) profiled.

Steven Kwan: By month he was good (.354 AVG, 0 SB), then bad (.173 AVG, 2 SB), and finally good (.341 AVG, 3 SB) again. He is becoming more interesting because of the stolen bases. He is back to leading off against righties but has sat against the last four lefty starters (.764 OPS vs RHP, .656 vs LHP).

Harold Ramirez: While Ramirez is hitting (.310/.360/.413, 3 HR, 3 SB), he’s on Tampa where his playing time can be sporadic (started in seven of the last 10).

Seth Brown: He has provided both power (10 HR) and speed (7 SB) but a drain on batting average (.220) this season. He’s not getting full-time at-bats and sat against three of the last five lefties.

Carlos Santana: Maybe the trade to the Mariners woke up some fantasy managers to Santana’s hot June (.323/.450/.492, 2 HR). Even though he’s hit fourth or fifth with Seattle, the lack of home runs (6% HR/FB%) from a first baseman will limit his upside.

Oscar Gonzalez: Gonzalez was hitting great (.285/.315/.431, 2 HR) while batting in the heart of Cleveland’s lineup. Gonzalez’s rank took a major hit because he’s currently on the IL (intercostal strain).

Josh H. Smith: Smith is an on-base machine (.432 OBP) with no power (.029 ISO) but decent speed (2 MLB SB, 8 AAA SB) while being qualified at two positions (SS and 3B). He is sitting or getting buried as the ninth hitter against lefties.

Jorge Mateo: A .503 OPS in June (.580 OPS on the season) still has him in the lineup every day. The only reason to roster him is for the hope he keeps stealing bases (19 SB).

Miguel Rojas: On the surface, he seems fine with a 6 HR, 5 SB, and .248 AVG. Where he’s dragging down a fantasy team is with just 23 Runs and 20 RBI almost halfway through the season. Use as an injury fill-in and look to upgrade.

Edward Olivares: I’m sorry for those that bought into my enthusiasm for Olivares last week. I figured the playing time would be there but instead, he’s on the short side of a platoon (started in four of seven). In shallow leagues, he’s probably a drop but with the trade rumors surrounding Andrew Benintendi, a spot might open in the outfield soon. The power-speed profile can’t be ignored.

Cavan Biggio: Toronto’s super-sub has started six of the last ten games and is just hitting .227/.385/.412 with 2 HR and 1 SB on the season.

Nick Senzel: In almost 200 PA, he’s got 1 HR and 5 SB to go with a .240/.298/.286 triple slash line. He has 12 RBI in those plate appearances. Find any regular hitting higher in the lineup.

Bligh Madris: The 26-year-old is on the strong side of a platoon while all his production (.310/.326/.500, 59% GB%) is coming from a .387 BABIP. Pass.

Catchers

Jorge Alfaro: He’s been starting half the time and hitting (.281/.314/.479, 6 HR).

Jose Trevino: He’s providing some power (6 HR) and a batting average (.263 AVG) that might actually help.

Cal Raleigh: A typical catcher, some power (10 HR) and no batting average (.196 AVG).

Elias Díaz: He’s started in eight of the last 10 games and posted a .738 OPS in June with 3 HR. Seven road games next week.

Austin Nola: I keep seeing Nola getting added and I’m not sure why since he’s not doing anything right now.

Hitting Prospects

Esteury Ruiz: Hit .344/.474/.611 with 9 HR and 37 SB in AA. In AAA, he’s hitting .349/.472/.547 with 4 HR and 17 SB.

Miguel Vargas He’s hitting .294/.387/.505 with 12 HR and 8 SB in AAA.

CBS Hitter Rostership Rates
Name Previous Roster% Current Roster% Change
Garrett Cooper 1B MIA 39% 42% 3%
Vinnie Pasquantino DH KC 36% 60% 24%
Steven Kwan LF CLE 34% 37% 3%
Juan Yepez LF STL 32% 43% 11%
Jose Trevino C NYY 31% 39% 8%
Jorge Mateo SS BAL 31% 33% 2%
Oscar Gonzalez RF CLE 30% 35% 5%
Jarren Duran CF BOS 29% 47% 18%
Andrew McCutchen DH MIL 29% 39% 10%
Nico Hoerner SS CHC 27% 37% 10%
Elias Diaz C COL 27% 29% 2%
Austin Nola C SD 26% 28% 2%
Jorge Alfaro C SD 22% 34% 12%
Evan Longoria 3B SF 22% 27% 5%
Jack Suwinski RF PIT 20% 28% 8%
Miguel Vargas 3B LAD 19% 23% 4%
Cal Raleigh C SEA 16% 22% 6%
Esteury Ruiz 2B SD 15% 27% 12%
Cavan Biggio 2B TOR 14% 18% 4%
Miguel Rojas SS MIA 13% 15% 2%
Seth Brown 1B OAK 12% 20% 8%
Nick Senzel CF CIN 12% 16% 4%
Isaac Paredes 3B TB 10% 51% 41%
Tyrone Taylor CF MIL 10% 14% 4%
Edward Olivares RF KC 9% 19% 10%
Carlos Santana 1B SEA 8% 10% 2%
Josh H. Smith 3B TEX 6% 10% 4%
Harold Ramirez DH TB 5% 7% 2%
Bligh Madris RF PIT 4% 7% 3%
Jake Meyers CF HOU 2% 5% 3%
Darick Hall DH PHI 0% 10% 10%

Starters

David Peterson: If Peterson is in the Mets rotation, he needs to be 100% rostered. His 16% K%-BB% and 55% GB% is comparable to Logan Webb (16%, 56%), Sandy Alcantara (15%, 56%) and Kyle Wright (18%, 53%).

Johnny Cueto: Surprisingly, Cueto has been decent with a 3.33 ERA, 3.96 xFIP, 7.5 K/9, and 1.17 WHIP. His 3.93 xFIP in June ranked 56th … not ideal but at least rosterable as a bench streamer.

Mitch White: White is consistent but not a great starter comparable to Cueto and Quintana. An 8.7 K/9, 1.19 WHIP, and 3.93 ERA and xFIP. Next week he is scheduled to face the Rockies and Cubs at home.

José Quintana: He’s having a respectable season with a 7.9 K/9, 1.29 WHIP, 3.43 ERA, and 3.87 xFIP. Nothing fancy here, what you see is what you get.

Josh Winckowski: While his 5.9 K/9 is disappointing, he limits walks (2.7 BB/9) and keeps the ball on the ground (54% GB%). I think he’s a perfect streaming option for Wins without destroying a team’s ratios.

Tyler Wells: There is a huge disconnect between his 4.83 xFIP and 3.23 ERA centering around his .226 BABIP. He will normally have a low BABIP with a 36% GB% (16th lowest of 123, 50 min IP). Where Wells is also able to keep his ERA in check is with a 1.2 HR/9 (projections at 1.6 HR/9). He might even generate more weak contact than the groundball rate projects. His four-seamer has an insanely low 22% GB% and his changeup generates groundballs at a 55% clip. With all that said, I think he might be at best a 4.00 ERA true talent pitcher with his 5.6 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9.

Rich Hill: Hill was improving with his K%-BB% getting better each month (7% to 14% to 16%) but he’s now on the IL (knee). Before getting hurt, it looks like he introduced a cutter (11 SwStr%, 15% usage) that would help explain the June improvement.

Dean Kremer: I just don’t think he can continue to be so lucky (1.29 ERA, 4.69 xFIP). His 0.3 HR/9 is the league’s 7th lowest. His LOB% is the 4th highest. And he has a sub-.300 BABIP. At some point, a team is going to light him up like a Christmas tree.

Patrick Corbin: In June, Corbin ranked 35th with a 16.8% K%-BB% (4.28 ERA). That’s not as bad as his overall 6.06 ERA and 1.70 WHIP would suggest. Corbin is making some changes. His fastball velocity is up from 90.6 mph to start the season to 92.9 mph in his last start. He’s upped his slider usage (17% SwStr%). Finally and most importantly, his June walk rate was down to 2.0 BB/9 (6.0 BB/9 in April). In all fairness, I have a tough time believing he’s good again but he’s at least moving in the right direction.

Chris Archer: I’m not brave enough to roster and start a pitcher with a 4.99 xFIP (6.9 K/9, 4.4 BB/9) but he’s making a couple of positive changes. Over his last four starts, he’s upped his changeup (18% SwStr%, 52% GB%) usage from 11% to 19%. In his last start, he threw 90 pitches for the first time this season. That’s not enough for me to buy back in, but I’ll keep monitoring for more improvements.

Devin Smeltzer: I just can’t recommend pitchers who have a low BABIP (.226) that is leading to a low WHIP and ERA. Those low BABIPs never stay there, so I expect his ERA to eventually go to the mid-4.00s with his below-league-average 5.5 K/9.

JP Sears: Seems to be the next guy up if the Yankees need a spot starter. He’s been great in AAA with a 1.83 ERA, 11.4 K/9, and 0.74 WHIP. While he’s not allowed a run yet in 12 MLB innings, he has only struck out eight batters while walking four. Interesting if in the rotation.

Erick Fedde: While he’s lacking talent (4.40 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 7.2 K/9), he was scheduled for starts against the Pirates (5 IP, 2 ER, 4 K) and Marlins (Sun). The deal is that he has been getting worse each month (14% K%-BB% to 6% to 5%).

Kris Bubic: I just have to ignore everything Bubic does if he’s walking over a batter per inning (5.5 BB/9, 4.3 BB/9 in June). With WHIP being a roto category, his starts are a huge burden on it. I’d rather roster a middle reliever.

Dustin May: He’s starting to face live batters but there is no way to know if he’ll make it to the majors and how well he’ll pitch.

Pitching Prospects

Brayan Bello: In AAA, he has a 12.6 K/9, 1.17 WHIP, and 2.81 ERA.

CBS Starter Rostership Rates
Name Previous Roster% Current Roster% Change
Johnny Cueto SP CHW 37% 44% 7%
David Peterson SP NYM 30% 37% 7%
Dustin May SP LAD 26% 29% 3%
Tyler Wells SP BAL 25% 41% 16%
Devin Smeltzer SP MIN 24% 39% 15%
Patrick Corbin SP WAS 19% 21% 2%
Jose Quintana SP PIT 18% 22% 4%
Brayan Bello SP BOS 18% 21% 3%
Chris Archer SP MIN 14% 16% 2%
Josh Winckowski SP BOS 13% 17% 4%
Rich Hill SP BOS 12% 15% 3%
Erick Fedde SP WAS 9% 17% 8%
Dean Kremer SP BAL 5% 19% 14%
Mitch White SP LAD 5% 10% 5%
Kris Bubic SP KC 3% 5% 2%
JP Sears RP NYY 3% 5% 2%

Relievers

Tanner Scott: Good reliever who is the closer.

Paul Sewald: Good reliever who is getting most of the Save opportunities.

Tanner Rainey: OK reliever who is the closer.

Lou Trivino: Good reliever who is the closer.

Hunter Strickland: Might now be an OK reliever (4.03 xFIP in June) who is the closer.

A.J. Minter: Great reliever who is temporarily sharing the closer’s role.

Will Smith: Good reliever who is temporarily sharing the closer’s role.

Yerry De Los Santos: Great reliever who just got his first two Saves.

Brusdar Graterol: Great reliever who is next in line for Saves.

John Schreiber: Good reliever who was temporarily the closer.

Rafael Montero: Good reliever who is next in line for Saves.

CBS Reliever Rostership Rates
Name Previos Roster% Current Roster% Change
Tanner Scott RP MIA 40% 49% 9%
Tanner Rainey RP WAS 33% 38% 5%
Paul Sewald RP SEA 32% 42% 10%
Tyler Wells SP BAL 25% 41% 16%
A.J. Minter RP ATL 23% 40% 17%
Rafael Montero RP HOU 21% 24% 3%
Will Smith RP ATL 19% 32% 13%
Lou Trivino RP OAK 16% 21% 5%
John Schreiber RP BOS 9% 15% 6%
Brusdar Graterol RP LAD 6% 8% 2%
Mitch White SP LAD 5% 10% 5%
Hunter Strickland RP CIN 1% 8% 7%
Yerry De Los Santos RP PIT 0% 2% 2%





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR once, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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alan fogelmember
1 month ago

Excellent analysis. Thank You!!!