Waiver Wire Report (Week 12)

Plenty of hitters are available on the wire, but any decent pitching is scarce.

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.

Hitters

Jon Berti: So far in June, Berti is hitting .318/.389/.400 with 17 stolen bases. Last week, I noted that he should be universally rostered in roto leagues and I think the jump up to 59% in CBS.

Edward Olivares: Where he’s available, I expect Oliveras to be this week’s most sought-after player. In 41 MLB PA, he’s hitting .395/.439/.658 with 2 HR and 2 SB. He’s one of the few players who could give a team a boost in stolen bases while not being a total drain on home runs and batting average. Projections have his full-season stats at 20 HR, 20 SB, and a .260 AVG.

Amed Rosario: Rosario has improved every month with his OPS going from .522 to .641 to .872. His stolen bases have trended accordingly going from one to two to six. There might even be a bit more home runs (two this season) in him since his power metrics are consistent with his previous seasons.

Jarren Duran: Since being recalled, he’s started and leadoff in eight of the last nine games. While he’s hitting fine (.262/.326/.429, 0 HR, 2 SB), I don’t think there is going to be much power to go with the stolen bases (11 in AAA). I feel his upside is could be Tommy Edman or Amed Rosario. One note, he might not be available in the first half of the week because he’s not vaccinated.

Orlando Arcia: He started nine of the last 10 games while hitting .317/.376/.488 with 3 HR. Additionally, he just got his tenth game at second base, so now he now has dual eligibility (2B and OF).

Luis García: My expectations have dampened a bit on Garica. His .326 AVG is driven by a .388 BABIP. All his raw power metrics point to at least league average power for the 22-year-old. His power production (2 HR, .140 ISO) is disappointing because he’s putting the ball on the ground 51% of the time. That value is in line with his minor league groundball rates. He could improve in several ways going forward (e.g. more walks or power), but the most immediate gains could come from lifting the ball more.

Oscar Gonzalez: I’m surprised, Gonzalez hasn’t broken my 40% roster threshold yet. He was hitting great (.311/.345/.466) and finally got to some of his power with two homers this past week. Getting to the power will be an issue with a 57% GB% (60% in June). For now, he’s a Yandy Diaz clone.

Garrett Cooper: Cooper is a boring add by providing a solid .312 AVG and some power 5 HR. With his dual qualifications (1B and OF), I like him as a bench sub more than someone I stick in my lineup every day.

AJ Pollock: He was struggling to start the season with a sub-.600 OPS coming into June but is hitting .298/.344/.452 with 2 HR this month. He is not hitting for much power as seen by multi-year lows in average Exit Velocity and Hard Hit%.

Month: avgEV, Barrel%, HardHit%
April: 92, 6%, 39%
May: 88, 12%, 36%
June: 88, 10%, 40%

He’s showing no power gains and the .298 AVG is driven by a small drop in his strikeout but mainly from a .338 BABIP.

Luis Gonzalez: Last week, I was trying to determine how much Gonzalez would play going forward. The answer came fast when he went on the IL (back) and more information will come soon.

Covering the #SFGiants tonight and tomorrow for @EvanWebeck. Giants announce that Luis Gonzalez (lower back strain) will be reevaluated by Dr. Ken Akizuki tonight and another update on his health will come this weekend.

— Curtis Pashelka (@CurtisPashelka) June 24, 2022

He is providing both speed (7 SB) and batting average (.302 AVG) while not being a complete zero in home runs (0 HR). Rosterable profile if playing.

C.J. Abrams: The 21-year-old continues to struggle in the majors. In his first stint, he posted a .543 OPS. This time, it’s just a .399 OPS. His problem is that pitchers aren’t scared of him because most of his hits are weak (85 mph avgEV) groundballs (53% GB%). He has the potential to steal some bases (10 SB in AAA), but he needs to get on base first.

Jack Suwinski: Suwinski is a perfect example of why I don’t like to draft power-only bats. Guys who hit home runs (11 HR) with a horrible batting average (.212 AVG) show up all the time. He will remain fantasy-relevant in 15-team leagues, possibly 12 if he continues to play every day and hits in the middle of the Pirates lineup.

Isaac Paredes: The 23-year-old has been hitting for power in June with a 6 HR and a .429 ISO (5th best, min 50 PA). The 23-year-old is getting to more power posting career highs with a 53% Pull%, 8% Barrel%, 110 maxEV, and 38% StatCast Hard Hit%. His fantasy value is being dragged down by a .211 AVG and .149 BABIP. Same profile as Suwinski.

Ji-Man Choi: Choi (.286/.381/.472, 6 HR) only plays against righties and the Pirates are starting three against him this weekend. He is scheduled to face five next week, with four on the weekend which can be useful in NFBC leagues.

Yonathan Daza: With six home games next week, Daza (.319/.373/.373, 0 HR, 0 SB) will get rostered for his batting average. He’s providing no help otherwise since he is the only hitter this season with over 200 PA and not one homer or stolen base.

Adam Duvall: He has finally started showing some power with six homers in June after hitting just two coming into the month. His batting average (.201 AVG) is a drag because of a 32% K% and low BABIP from a high flyball rate (28% GB%).

Nomar Mazara: While he is hitting fine (.293 .349 .397 with 1 HR), he still sits against all lefties. San Diego is scheduled to face lefties in three of their games next week thereby making Mazara unplayable in weekly lineup leagues.

Bligh Madris: Since being called up, he’s started four of five games. The outfielder hit .304/.385/.519 with 5 HR and 2 SB in AAA this year and already has a home run and stolen base in four games so far. He’s not one of the team’s top prospects but he’s making the best of the opportunity given to him.

Dylan Moore: Moore just barely stays in the majors (.170/.342/.330), but remains fantasy-relevant because he steals a few bases (9 SB). The problem with Moore is that he’s not a regular (11 starts over the last 20 games). There will be stretches where he’ll start seven out of eight games because someone went on the IL, but it’s impossible to know when they will happen.

Josh Lowe: Right now is the perfect opportunity for Lowe to make his case for an outfield spot with Margot and Kiermaier on the IL. Lowe’s issue is that he strikes out way too much (31% in AAA, 39% in the majors) and is at it again after this most recent promotion (7 K in 16 PA). The strikeouts may never go away since the 24-year-old struggles with fastballs (15% SwStr% on four-seamer, 12% SwStr% on sinkers). He’s a hard ignore for now until he starts making some contact.

Ezequiel Duran: The 23-year-old has been fine so far this season (.258 .281 .435, 2 HR, 2 SB) but could be feeling a time crunch with fellow third baseman Josh Smtih coming off the IL. Since Smith’s return, Both have started two of three games with Smith starting one game in the outfield. Here are some quotes from the team on the situation.

“Everybody became outfielders,” Rangers outfield coordinator Tony Beasley joked. “But I knew with Josh, he was taking reps in camp. We didn’t know with Duran, because we hadn’t decided that he would do anything outside of the infield at that point. Now that he’s here, we need to find places to play him. With both of them, we’ve got to be creative. We’ll have to find who can do what, how versatile can they be in certain spots defensively and not be a liability. That’s where we’re out.”

…

“That’s a Rubik’s Cube,” manager Chris Woodward said of the lineup shuffle. “It’s a challenge, but I think the commitment from all of the players [is important], because I don’t want these [young] guys up here playing just twice a week. Some guys are going to have to sacrifice a little bit to allow for Duran and Smith to get their playing time. … Being able to navigate it and keeping everybody happy, that’s the hardest thing. Trying to figure out that balance and making sure everybody’s still in, it’s a challenge for us as a staff. It’s such a good group of guys.”

Also, Brad Miller (.634 OPS, 7 HR) could be in the mix for the third base and outfield spots. I’m pretty sure the playing time will be known in a week, it’s just a big unknown right now.

Update: And now he’s in AAA.

Postgame roster moves for Saturday:
-LHP Taylor Hearn and INF Ezequiel Duran optioned to Round Rock (AAA).
Club will make corresponding roster moves on Sunday.

— Texas Rangers PR (@TXRangersPR) June 25, 2022

Buddy Kennedy: Arizona just called up the 23-year-old infielder who has never been high on any prospect rankings. In 2021, he hit .278/.384/.536 with 17 HR and 7 SB in 279 AA PA. This year, he has hit .296/.384/.429 with 4 HR and 8 SB in 229 AAA PA. Until he suffered a wrist injury, he had started five straight games while batting fifth to seventh in the lineup. The promotion might be temporary with Ketel Marte dealing with a hamstring injury.

Lenyn Sosa: The 22-year-old prospect got the call earlier this week and has played in only one game. We have him ranked as the 14th best prospect in the White Sox’s system. He was great in AA (.331/.384/.549, 14 HR, 0 SB) and his projections are decent (~.250 AVG, 15 HR for a full season) but he needs to play to be fantasy relevant.

Jerar Encarnacion: The 24-year-old Marlin got promoted, hit a grand slam, and is already back in the minors.

Catchers

Jorge Alfaro: A catcher hitting .288/.324/.492 with 6 HR and 1 SB is a must roster in all two-catcher formats.

Brian Serven: Six home games (.417/.488/.750 with 3 HR at home) means some team should be rostering the Rockie next week.

Hitting Prospects

Miguel Vargas: He’s hitting .286/.384/.487 with 11 HR and 8 SB in AAA.

Jeter Downs: Got a surprising callup (4 PA) after only hitting .191/.313/.402 with 11 HR and 12 SB in AAA. My worry with Downs is his swing-and-misses since he posted a 32% K% in AAA last year and 30% K% this year.

Esteury Ruiz: The 23-year-old has dominated AA (1.085 OPS, 9 HR, 37 PA) and AAA (1.110 OPS, 4 HR, 11 SB).

Starters

Mitch White: In a small sample as a starter (16 IP), White has been respectable with a 3.31 ERA, 3.52 xFIP, 8.8 K/9, 0.98 WHIP, and a 39% GB%. The starting pitchers with similar 16.7 K%-BB% values are Sean Manaea, Jameson Taillon, and Sandy Alcantara. With the chance a Dodger ends up with similar production to those three, he should be added in all leagues.

Ross Stripling: He’s been a good starter (2.81 ERA, 6.9 K/9, 1.1 BB/9, 53% GB%) and should be rostered in every league.

Nick Lodolo: Lodolo is making minor league rehab starts (back) and should be in the majors soon. In his three starts before getting hurt, he got hit around (.375 BABIP, 1.8 HR/9) leading to a 1.57 WHIP and 5.52 ERA even though his ERA indicators are all under 4.00. The top-100 prospect should be rostered in all formats to see how he’ll perform in his first few starts off the IL.

Mitch Keller: I didn’t think the “just throw sinkers” approach would work, but it has for Keller. Since he moved to the pitch, he has a 2.93 ERA, 4.01 xFIP, 7.3 K/9, 57% GB%, and 1.27 WHIP. That’s 100% rosterable in 12-team or deeper leagues.

Aaron Civale: In his first start off the IL, Civale was impressive (5 IP, 7 K, 1 BB, 2 ER). While he’s thrown seven different pitches this season, he got by with just a sinker (3% SwStr%, 34% GB%), cutter (12% SwStr%, 24% GB%), and curve (18% Swstr%, 55% GB%). The fastball is trash but generates some popups but his other two pitches are great, especially the curveball. This combination might just work for him.

Ryan Feltner: It is getting to the point where Feltner needs to be started when on the road where he has a 10.1 K/9, 1.17 WHIP, 5.03 ERA, and 3.59 xFIP. Among qualified pitchers, his 20.2% road K%-BB% would rank between Shane Bieber and Justin Verlander. Not too shabby.

Josh Winckowski: A sinker-heavy approach (43% usage) means two things, not many strikeouts (5.9 K/9) but some groundballs (54% GB%). With this base, he is walking too many batters (3.1 BB/9) leading to a nearly unrosterable 1.50 WHIP. Currently, he has a 3.60 ERA with similar ERA estimators. If a fantasy team can manage the WHIP, he could be worth rostering.

Keegan Thompson: Thompson has been better in his last two starts (12 IP, 16 K, 1 ER, 3 BB) when he started focusing on his four-seamer (9% SwStr%, 29% GB%) and cutter (10% SwStr%, 57% GB%). He stayed away from his curve (11% SwStr%, 59% GB%) for some reason and the new mix still worked. Stepping back, he has a 4.37 ERA, 4.62 xFIP, 7.7 K/9, and 1.31 WHIP as a starter. In deeper formats, I could see rostering him, but I’d be cautious of starting him for the next couple of times through the rotation.

Johnny Cueto: The 36-year-old has been decent (3.19 ERA, 3.98 xFIP, 7.5 K/9, and 1.15 WHIP) and likely a bench or waiver wire streaming option depending on the league’s depth.

Zach Davies: Davies is so boring but his production (3.96 ERA, 7.2 K/9, 1.20 WHIP) makes him a streaming option. A stream is what managers likely did against San Diego and Detroit. And he now needs to be dropped with a road start at Colorado being next on the schedule.

David Peterson: Peterson somehow got to face Miami twice in a week and his rostership should be up based on just those two starts. While Peterson has a 3.18 ERA, his ERA estimators are over a run higher and his 4.4 BB/9 is a WHIP killer and sets back the gains from an 8.3 K/9 and 56% GB%. Until he gets the walks under control, he remains just a streaming option like with this current week’s two starts.

JT Brubaker: Coming into this week, he had a 4.50 ERA, 4.37 xFIP, 9.1 K/9, and 3.9 BB/9. In his two starts this week, he’s lowered his ERA to 4.14 and his walk rate down to 3.7 BB/9. Boring streamer.

Beau Brieske: He has been better in June with a 2.28 ERA, 7.2 K/9, 0.93 WHIP, 47% GB%, and 3.70 xFIP. Coming into the month, he had a 5.25 ERA, 5.5 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 38% GB%, and 5.23 xFIP. The one noticeable change is upping his slider (10% Swstr%, 50% GB%) usage from 15% to 28%. At the same time, he quit throwing his curve (4% SwStr%, 14% GB%). He has improved results with a noticeable change. Without a track record, it’s tough to know if the improvements will stick.

Jonathan Heasley: On the season, he’s been a well below-average pitcher (7.0 K/9, 4.8 BB/9, 1.38 WHIP, 4.14 ERA, 5.23 xFIP) but has been much better in June (9.0 K/9, 2.5 K/9, 1.05 WHIP, 3.68 ERA, and 4.08 xFIP). He’s trusting his stuff and just throwing more pitches in the strike zone (45% Zone% to 53% Zone%). I’ve bought into him being a streaming option going forward.

Dean Kremer: Kremer’s 1.71 ERA is unsustainable with his ERA estimators in the 4.50 range especially since he has not shown the ability have an ERA under his estimators in previous seasons. His 2.1 BB/9 is good, his 38% GB% should be allowing more than 0.4 HR/9, and his 6.0 K/9 is not good.  Besides being lucky with his ERA, there is no reason to roster him.

Tyler Wells: There have been times I’ve considered Wells to be rosterable, but not anymore. While he has a 2.57 ERA in June, his 3.5% K%-BB% ranks 97th among 103 pitchers with 20 IP. With those stats, he has a 5.35 xFIP and 5.49 SIERA. I don’t believe the .197 BABIP will continue and won’t consider rostering him at this point.

Andre Pallante: A 63% GB% might be leading to some weak contact and a 2.57 ERA. That’s where the goodness ends as a starter. A 5.1 K/9 is too low to be useful. A 4.3 BB/9 has led to a 1.38 WHIP. He has a 4.39 xFIP as a starter, not the 4.02 xFIP shown when his 18 relief appearances are added in.

Dylan Bundy: Who in the hell is rostering Bundy. He’s been underwhelming (4.80 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 6.9 K/9) to this point in the season. I guess some managers are buying into his last two starts (2 ER and 9 K in 14 IP) against Arizona and Colorado. The Colorado start wasn’t even that great (2 K, 2 BB, and 1 ER in 6 IP). I’d need to see a talent change before I’d consider rostering him.

Dustin May: May is on his way back from Tommy John surgery. While he has thrown a bullpen, I’m not going to consider rostering him until I get some velocity reports from his rehab starts.

Pitching Prospects

DL Hall: He has a 3.86 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and 14.7 K/9 in 35 AAA innings.

Brayan Bello: In 40 AAA IP, he has a 12.7 K/9, 1.17 WHIP, and 3.12 ERA.

Relievers – Saves-based ranks

Tanner Scott: OK reliever who is the closer.

Colin Poche: OK reliever who has been getting most of the Save chances.

Seranthony Dominguez: Great reliever who seems to be sharing the closer duties.

A.J. Puk: OK reliever who might be the closer.

Kendall Graveman: OK reliever who might be the closer with Liam Hendricks on the IL.

Brad Hand: Below-average reliever who seems to be sharing the closer duties.

Michael King: Great reliever who is currently the backup closer.

Eli Morgan: Great reliever who is the backup closer.

John Schreiber: Good reliever who is the backup closer.

Griffin Jax: Good reliever who might be the backup closer.

Félix Bautista: OK reliever who is the backup closer.

Ken Giles: Probably an average reliever who is not close to getting Saves.