Waiver Wire Report (Week 1)

With just a couple lineups in the books, there are just a few hitters moving up. The targets exist on the pitching front where a few pitchers have taken a step forward.

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.

Hitters

Josh Lowe: With two starts in two games, Lowe needs to be universally rostered for his 20/20 upside (22 HR, 26 SB in AAA last season). The issue surrounding him will be how much he plays.

Tommy Pham: Pham needs to be added in all formats for his 30/30 power-speed potential.

Bryson Stott: Stott is in demand and should be since he made the MLB team after destroying the AZ Fall League and Spring Training. While many signs are pointing up, keep an eye on how much he platoons with Alec Bohm.

C.J. Abrams: There is a ton of hype around the 21-year-old Abrams. I’m just not buying the hype for now and by searching the interwebs, his backers can easily be found. I understand he’s fast with scouting reports having him at 80-grade speed and a decent hit tool (.401 AVG in Rookie ball in 2019, .296 AVG in AA). The deal is that his prospect grades have him with below-average power. Also, pitchers so far have stayed away from throwing him fastballs (33% in one game) so the book might be to pound him with outspeed and breaking balls. Check to see if this approach continues. While I’d add him on the cheap, he’s not someone I’d break the bank on.

Jorge Mateo: He has been taking advantage of the opportunity Baltimore has given him. A nice source of speed and will soon be qualified at shortstop in addition to the outfield.

Andrés Giménez: He has some major league tools like great speed, good defense, and decent power. The problem is that he puts too many balls on the ground (career 48% GB%) and a strikes out at a decent rate (24% K%). He’s just 23-years-old so the breakout could be coming, but be ready to move on if his profile remains constant.

Chad Pinder: Pinder (Steamer600 23 HR, 3 SB, .246 AVG) is not an above-average hitter, but he is batting cleanup for the A’s. Additionally, he’s played first base and the outfield in his first two games while already being qualified at second. I could see him being valuable in a Josh Harrison or Yoshi Tsutsugo sort of way.

Andrew McCutchen: As his career declines, he sold out for power last season by pulling the ball (career-high 50% Pull% last season) with a full effort swing (career-high 23% K% last season). As long as he is healthy and playing, he is a 5th outfielder in 15-team leagues.

Darin Ruf 러프: Ruf’s fantasy value comes down to how many at-bats he gets against righties. If given a full season of at-bats, he’d be a must roster, but he’s not fantasy-relevant in most leagues with just 400 PA. Watch his usage.

Nick Senzel: He’s had problems staying on the field, but is being slotted into the centerfield spot so play him while he’s still vertical.

Steven Kwan: The 24-year-old has a similar profile to Luis Arraez and Nick Madrigal, all hit with no power. While, maybe a little bit more power with 12 HR in 341 minor league plate appearances. The Guardians are batting him high in the lineup, so the chance for counting stats increases. The lack of above-average power and middling speed limit his upside.

J.P. Crawford: An everyday player but is hitting in the bottom third this season. A fine injury replacement.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa: The Yankees’ full-time shortstop will get every chance to prove himself and maybe steal 15-20 bases.

Mike Moustakas: A power-only bat (major AVG sink the past two seasons) who looks to have a full-time job.

Nick Madrigal: The light-hitting second baseman should get full-time at-bats. He’s only helps in batting average and possibly steals.

Hunter Dozier: Dozier has gotten the first two DH starts, so he’s getting at-bats to start the season. Now he just needs to keep hitting in order to keep one of the Royals elite hitting prospects from taking his spot.

Ha-Seong Kim 김하성: Like many of the players profiled, playing time will be key to Kim’s fantasy value. C.J. Abrams could steal from him at short and there are a couple of outfield options. The key will be to follow his starts over the next week.

Luis Arraez: He’s possible the Twins super-sub by playing four to five days a week all over the field. The best route for him to get a full-time role is third base if Gio Urshela struggles.

Seth Beer: He hit the game-winning home run on Opening Day and should get regular time as the team’s DH … hopefully. As long as he’s getting 80% or more of the DH at-bats, he’ll have fantasy value.

Diego Castillo: The 24-year-old made the major league team after hitting .371/.395/.886 with 6 HR in Spring Training. His Steamer600 is pretty blah (16 HR, 7 SB, .248 AVG). With Pittsburgh’s Spring Training park having StatCast data, I looked through the game logs for his hardest-hit ball. It was just 104 mph and that puts him in company with such sluggers as Kurt Suzuki, Luis Arraez, Alcides Escobar, and Nick Madrigal.

Geraldo Perdomo: With Nick Ahmed and Josh Rojas on the IL, Perdomo is playing shortstop every day but he’s lacking in any carrying skill.

Brandon Marsh: With the Angels releasing Justin Upton, it looked like Marsh would have a full-time job, but not so fast.

In case you didn't read all of this…

Joe Maddon said that his plan before Taylor Ward's injury was that Ward would be the everyday RF and Adell and Marsh would platoon in LF. https://t.co/h81MTPgJR4

— Jeff Fletcher (@JeffFletcherOCR) April 8, 2022

Already, Jose Rojas started in place of Jo Adell. In Marsh’s and Adell’s short careers, they do have a major split.

Name: OPS vs LHP, OPS vs RHP
Marsh: .540, .728
Adell: .656, .545

The person to add now is Taylor Ward (groin-unknown return) who has a Steamer600 of 21 HR, 6 SB, and .246 AVG.

Tyler Wade: Matt Duffy has started in place of Wade, so the Angels might be using a middle infield platoon or Joe Maddon is out thinking things. Wade should not be rostered if he’s not playing and then in the only the deepest of leagues.

Keston Hiura: He was one of the worst hitters in 2021 and I expect nothing to change. He should stay on the wire until the strikeout come down.

Robinson Canó: Useless in the field so right now he’s just a part-time DH.

Colin Moran: I still don’t get why there is demand for a corner infield bench bat. He’s not going to play first base (see Joey Votto). He’s rarely going to DH. I’ve already written too much. Ignore.

Mickey Moniak: On the IL with a broken hand.

Catchers

Kyle Higashioka: There just have not been much turnover and/or breakouts at the catcher position yet so Higashioka is the only player worth rostering.

Hitting Prospects (ranked on the chance to be called up since the talent, IMO, is similar)

Brennen Davis – OF with the Cubs

Triston Casas – 1B with the Red Sox

Anthony Volpe – SS with the Yankees

Gabriel Moreno – C with the Blue Jays

Starters

Tylor Megill: A couple injuries pushed Megill to be the Mets’ Opening Day starter and he didn’t disappoint. A 1.5 mph bump up in his average fastball velocity. He struck out six batter in five innings while not walking anyone. There is no reason for him to still be on the waiver wire.

Nestor Cortes: I’m a huge Cortes fan based on his 9.2 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 as a starter last season. He turned it on in September with an 11.2 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9. It’s tough to pass on this potential.

Kyle Wright: In the majors (and the minors), Wright has had control issues (6.2 BB/9) to go with a league-average strikeout rate (7.6 K/9). The Braves gave him a start on Saturday and he went six innings, striking out six batters and only walking one. He had eight strikeouts to just one walk in Spring Training. His sinker velocity was up over 1 mph. Additionally, he was basically just sinker-curve (84% usage) after throwing them 30% of the time last season. Wright looks to have found the strike zone and taken a major step forward. He’s a roster and observe for me.

Justin Steele: Steele was effective in his first outing by striking out five batters and only walking one in five inning of work. Recently, walks have been an issue for him (4.00 or greater BB/9 since 2019). He had a little addition by subtraction by throwing his 4-seamer (12% SwStr%) and slider (14% SwStr%) a combined 87% of the time (62% last season). He was able to post those results with his fastball and slider down over 1 mph. Add and monitor.

Merrill Kelly 켈리: His average fastball velocity is up 1.4 MPH to 93.2 allowing him to strike out seven batters in his four-inning debut. Additionally, a third (six of 18) of his changeups induced a swing-and-miss. I believe he could take another step forward by just getting rid of his sinker.

Nick Lodolo: He’s one of the top pitching prospects in the game and scheduled to pitch on Wednesday. Unlike Matt Brash, Lodolo has shown decent command and a groundball rate north of 50% while progressing through the minors.

Matt Brash: The hype behind Brash is intense but he won’t throw until Tuesday to see if he’ll live up to it. He’s a fastball-slider guy with below-average command.

Mitch Keller: The report velocity jump (+2.5 mph) held in his first start, but the results were great (four runs allowed in four innings). The velocity bump makes him interesting but Wins will be tough to come by on a bad Pirates team.

Reid Detmers: I know Detmers was highly touted but he’s just not been good in the majors. He threw 22 curves in his debut and didn’t get one swinging strike on them. And he continued to walk batters. I just don’t see a way he can be started until he shows some sign of being an average pitcher.

Jordan Hicks: Hicks was the hardest to rank. He’s got a start on Tuesday to see how long he’ll last into the game, his production, and if he can stay healthy. I’d want to see that start before investing too much.

Adrian Houser: I wonder if just the lack of acceptable arms has Houser’s value on the upswing. It might be that he has a two start week next week (@BAL, vsStL). There is no reason to roster a pitcher coming off a season with a 6.6 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9. He was saved by a .259 BABIP.

Miles Mikolas: He lost over 1 mph off his fastball and only generated two swinging strikes on 77 pitches over 3.2 innings. His results have been middling over the past two seasons (ERA over 4.00) and there are no signs of them improving.

Kyle Freeland: There was no way in hell I was was going to start Freeland at Colorado against the Dodgers (5 RA in 3.2 IP). With that said, I think he’s streamable depending on the road matchup (9.0 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, and 4.12 ERA in August and September last season). Everyone will have to wait another week to start him since his next start is at home against the Cubs.

Cole Irvin: In Irvin’s first start, his average fastball velocity was up about 1 mph and he featured his curveball (30% usage). Even with the velocity bump, he still barely throws 90 mph and can get hit around (3 HR allowed). Eventually, he might be worth streaming, but he’s just a subpar innings eater.

Austin Gomber: The ownership bump is likely linked to his two-start week (@TEX, vsCHC). I’m not going to take the chance with Texas hitting and the second start in Colorado.

Madison Bumgarner: His average fastball velocity is up 1.2 mph but didn’t see a bump in his swinging-strike rate (10% to 6%). Additionally, he walked four batters in three innings (1.67 WHIP). Look past the 3.00 ERA and keep benched or on the waiver wire.

Carlos Hernández: The non-factor has two starts next week (vsCLE, vsDET). As a starter last season, he had a 5.9 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9 for a 5.43 xFIP. There is no reason to gamble on these early risky starts in a roto league.

Jake Odorizzi: Another arm I don’t understand why he’s being added. He’s not been relevant for two seasons and his fastball velocity is down. In his one start, he allowed two runs while striking out two batters in four innings of work. Nothing has changed and he remains a streamer against weak opponents.

Vladimir Gutierrez: He’s in the Reds rotation but his first start didn’t go as planned with his average fastball velocity down almost 2 mph. And he had a 7.0 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 last season. Not ideal.

Relievers – Ranking based on ability to generate Saves.

Anthony Bender: Good reliever who is the closer.

Tony Santillan: Great reliever who may be closer.

Paul Sewald: Good reliever who is sharing the closer’s role.

David Robertson: OK reliever who may be closer.

Tyler Duffey: OK reliever who may be closer.

Jorge Alcala: OK reliever who may be closer.

Drew Steckenrider: OK reliever who is sharing the closer’s role.

Art Warren: OK reliever who is sharing the closer’s role.

Greg Holland: OK reliever who is sharing the closer’s role.

Dillon Tate: OK reliever who might be sharing the closer’s role.

Robert Suarez: Good reliever who is next in line to be the closer.

Spencer Strider: Great reliever who is not close to closing.

Jhoan Duran: Great reliever who is not close to closing.