Waiver Wire Report (8/7/22)

Make sure to get all the dead weight off your teams. Hitter values have changed a lot.

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.

Hitters

Jorge Mateo: While known for his speed (26 SB), he’s hitting or a bit more power (10 HR).

Jake McCarthy: He’s on a full-season pace of 12 HR and 20 SB with a .265 AVG.

Bubba Thompson: It has been two straight starts in left field and he already has two steals. He laid waste to AAA with 13 HR, 49 SB, and a .303 AVG. Any team needing steals needs to take a chance on Thompson.

Miguel Vargas: He was great in AAA (.291/.382/.497 with 15 HR and 12 SB) and has gotten two starts as the DH. Two keys to watch. First, pitchers have only thrown 38% fastballs against him so there might be a book on him. Second, make sure he’s playing regularly, especially with Chris Taylor coming off the IL.

Michael Massey: Massey has progressed through the minors with a .854 OPS, 9 HR, and 9 SB in AA and .987 OPS, 7 HR, and 4 SB in AAA. He’s started three straight for the Royals and has hit as high as second. So far he has six singles in 20 PA. The Steamer600 projection isn’t that kind with 18 HR, 7 SB, and a .238 AVG.

Jeimer Candelario: He seems to have gotten healthy around July 1st. Since that point, he’s hitting .242/.324/.451 with 5 HR.

Luis Rengifo: In 271 PA, Rengifo has been fine (5 HR, 5 SB, .281 AVG). Ideally, he is being used as a bench streaming option.

José Iglesias: Six home games (Colorado) makes him a streaming option. Remains a batting average-only play (.312 AVG, 3 HR, 2 SB).

Ha-Seong Kim 김하성: As long as he remains the Padres everyday shortstop he’ll provide some value (6 HR, 7 SB, .248 AVG), especially with the multi-position flexibility.

Trent Grisham: He’s hitting just enough (.654 OPS) to keep playing every day while chipping in some speed (4 SB) and power (13 HR).

Paul DeJong: Since being recalled, he’s starting every day at short and has hit .211/.333/.632 with 2 HR. He remains a power-only bat who will chip in a few steals.

Seth Brown: He’s been decent (16 HR, 8 SB, .236) when starting. The problem is that he only starts against righties and is scheduled to face five next week.

Daniel Vogelbach: The big beefy dude continues to crush righties (all 14 HR) and sit against lefties. Next week the Mets only faced four righties.

David Peralta: He was a platoon bat with Arizona and will definitely be a platoon bat with Tampa. Tampa is scheduled to face five righties next week.

Adam Frazier: Frazier is just a multi-positional accumulator (3 HR, 7 SB, .250 AVG) who is now leading off.

Lars Nootbaar: He has 10 straight starts while hitting .223/.317/.388 with 5 HR and 1 SB on the season. Blah.

Aledmys Díaz: As a hitter, Diaz has been fine (.251 AVG, 9 HR, 1 SB). With the addition of Trey Mancini, there is one extra hitter taking at-bats and sometimes Diaz will sit. If Brantley returns from the IL, there will be even fewer plate appearances to go around.

Brandon Marsh: Marsh looks to be on the strong side of a platoon with Matt Vierling … while batting ninth. I just don’t see it as much of an upgrade.

Bryson Stott: Stott no longer has any competition at shortstop but he has just struggled at the plate (.571 OPS) while providing a few roto stats (7 HR, 4 SB).

Will Benson: He’s been up since August 1st but only has started one game (in five). He had a nice balanced approach in AAA (17 HR, 16 SB, .278 AVG), but has struck out in five of his eight major league plate appearances. He needs to be playing to be useful.

Jarred Kelenic: He gets another major league shot and fails again (14 PA, 1 H, 1 HR, 38% K%). Ignore.

James Outman: Demoted to the minors.

Catchers

Carson Kelly: Continues to shove (.284/.339/.532 with 6 HR) since coming off the IL.

Jose Trevino: A decent (10 HR, 2 SB, .264 AVG) available catcher.

CBS Batter Rostership Rates
Name Prev Roster% Current Roster% Change
Jose Trevino C NYY 39% 41% 2%
Jarred Kelenic RF SEA 39% 41% 2%
Jorge Mateo SS BAL 38% 46% 8%
Trent Grisham CF SD 32% 37% 5%
Carson Kelly C ARI 32% 34% 2%
Jeimer Candelario 3B DET 29% 37% 8%
Miguel Vargas DH LAD 28% 43% 15%
Adam Frazier 2B SEA 26% 29% 3%
David Peralta LF TB 24% 28% 4%
Brandon Marsh CF PHI 24% 27% 3%
Bryson Stott 2B PHI 24% 26% 2%
Seth Brown 1B OAK 17% 33% 16%
Jose Iglesias SS COL 17% 22% 5%
Ha-Seong Kim SS SD 17% 21% 4%
Daniel Vogelbach DH NYM 10% 13% 3%
Aledmys Diaz LF HOU 7% 21% 14%
Luis Rengifo 2B LAA 6% 16% 10%
Paul DeJong SS STL 4% 8% 4%
Jake McCarthy RF ARI 3% 9% 6%
Michael Massey 2B KC 2% 9% 7%
Bubba Thompson LF TEX 1% 4% 3%
Lars Nootbaar RF STL 1% 4% 3%
Will Benson RF CLE 1% 4% 3%
James Outman LF LAD 0% 7% 7%

Starters

José Quintana: He’s been decent this season (3.39 ERA, 3.74 xFIP, 1.23 WHIP, 7.9 K/9) and now he’s on the Cardinals. Arrow way up.

Kutter Crawford: I’m all in with Crawford. He’s been great as a starter with a 3.11 ERA, 8.1 K/9, and 1.06 WHIP. I’m not sure what more some fantasy managers want from him.

Yusei Kikuchi: He was unrosterable (5.12 ERA, 5.68 BB/9) before going on the IL, but since coming off it, he’s been better (3.00 ERA, 2.0 BB/9). If he can continue to find the plate, he’s interesting. Roster and bench.

Mitch Keller: Since he went with the sinker, he has a 3.14 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 52% GB%, and 1.35 WHIP.

Graham Ashcraft: Ashcraft has two starts this week (at MIA, vs MLW). He steamrolled the Marlins allowing no runs over 8 IP. We’ll see how the start against the Brewers goes.

Ashcraft is getting by with the simple formula of not walking anyone (2.1 BB/9) and creating a ton of groundballs (53% GB%). Streaming option.

Justin Steele: Sometimes Steele seems like he’s unhittable and other times he is a complete disaster. Right now he seems to be in one of his good groves. Since the start of July, he has a 1.73 ERA, 10.4 K/9, and 1.23 WHIP. The key for him is to only throw his four-seamer (8% SwStr%, 54% GB%) and slider (14% SwStr%, 42% GB%). Also, he is being limited to just over 90 pitches (5.1 IP). He’s throwing his best stuff until it starts degrading. Here is his K%-BB% for each time through the order:

TTO: K%-BB%
1st: 19%
2nd: 11%
3rd: 4%

Jordan Lyles: Lyles is a fine streaming option (4.40 ERA, 4.24 xFIP, 7.5 K/9, and 1.43 WHIP). This week he had one start against Texas (1 W, 7 K, 1 ER, 6 IP) which was an acceptable change. I’m not sure about the two-starts against Toronto and Tampa next week.

Kris Bubic: Overall, he’s been garbage his year (5.27 ERA, 7.5 K/9, and 1.54 WHIP). He’s been better over his last five starts (2.84 ERA, 3.98 xFIP, 7.1 K/9, 2.3 BB/9) with all the gains linked back to a better walk rate. I just don’t know if he can keep throwing strikes.

James Kaprielian: I can’t see him being rostered because of his talent (6.0 K/9, 1.28 WHIP, 4.32 ERA, 5.21 xFIP). The demand must be based on facing the Angels this past and the Angels again and Houston next week.

Kyle Freeland: I was surprised managers took a chance with Freeland against the Padres but the gamble paid off (5 IP, 7 K, 4 BB, 6 H, 2 ER, and the Win).

Cole Ragans: He had one start against the White Sox (5 IP, 3 K, 4 BB, 0 ER) using a three-pitch mix (92 mph four-seamer, cutter, and change). The 24-year-old lefty had been decent in the minors (3.32 ERA, 10.0 K/9, 1.06 WHIP). I don’t have a good read on him yet.

Spenser Watkins: I’m a hard pass on Watkins. A 5.6 K/9 is a deal breaker especially with his ERA estimators almost at 5.00. I’m not going to trust that his .229 BABIP with runners on base keeps up.

Domingo Germán: There are no reasons to be rostering him (6.39 ERA, 5.43 xFIP, 7.1 K/9, 1.82 WHIP) with a 4.5 BB/9 being the center of his struggles. A pitcher with a 4.3 BB/9 and 2.8 HR will be allowing a ton of fireworks.

Tommy Henry: I’m going to wait and see on him. He’s struggled with walks in the minors (4.1 BB/9 in 2021 in AA, 3.7 BB/9 in 2022 in AAA) and walked three over 5 IP in his season debut. I’m just not interested in a lefty throwing a 91 mph fastball 61% of the time.

Janson Junk: He got lit up in his last start (6 ER, 2 K, 2 BB, 5 H, and 2.1 IP) and demoted to the minors.

CBS Starter Rostership Rates
Name Prev Roster% Current Roster% Change
Domingo German SP NYY 39% 42% 3%
Yusei Kikuchi SP TOR 33% 38% 5%
Graham Ashcraft SP CIN 29% 34% 5%
Jose Quintana SP STL 27% 43% 16%
Jordan Lyles SP BAL 26% 30% 4%
Mitch Keller SP PIT 23% 25% 2%
Justin Steele SP CHC 21% 23% 2%
Kutter Crawford RP BOS 17% 29% 12%
Spenser Watkins SP BAL 14% 21% 7%
James Kaprielian SP OAK 13% 17% 4%
Kyle Freeland SP COL 13% 15% 2%
Kris Bubic SP KC 5% 10% 5%
Janson Junk SP LAA 3% 6% 3%
Cole Ragans SP TEX 2% 4% 2%
Tommy Henry SP ARI 0% 2% 2%

Relievers – Saves-based ranks

Félix Bautista: Great reliever who is the closer.

Jonathan Hernández: Great reliever who seems to be the closer.

Rowan Wick: Below-average reliever is most likely the closer.

Peter Fairbanks: Good reliever who is sharing the closer’s role.

Zach Jackson: Good reliever who seems to be in a bullpen by committee.

José Quijada: Average reliever who might be the closer

A.J. Puk: Good reliever who seems to be in a bullpen by committee.

Ryan Tepera: Below-average reliever who might be the closer

Wil Crowe: Average reliever who is temporarily the closer.

Luis Garcia: Good reliever who was the closer for one day. Now the backup.

CBS Reliever Rostership Rates
Name Prev Roster% Current Roster% Change
A.J. Puk RP OAK 18% 24% 6%
Felix Bautista RP BAL 14% 40% 26%
Zach Jackson RP OAK 10% 13% 3%
Rowan Wick RP CHC 9% 14% 5%
Wil Crowe RP PIT 7% 11% 4%
Luis Garcia RP SD 6% 10% 4%
Ryan Tepera RP LAA 6% 9% 3%
Peter Fairbanks RP TB 4% 15% 11%
Jonathan Hernandez RP TEX 2% 19% 17%
Jose Quijada RP LAA 0% 4% 4%





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR once, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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drbn8rmember
1 month ago

Jeff, thanks for all the insights the entire season. Your work is greatly appreciated. Thought I better say that before the FAAB $ run out, LOL!