Waiver Wire Report (7/31/22)

Good luck on the first trade deadline weekend. The trades are a little slower than expected.

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.

Batters

Jake McCarthy: In 289 combined PA between AAA and the majors, he has 8 HR and 14 SB with decent averages (.369 in AAA, .254 in the majors). He has been starting quite a bit (seven of the last 10), but with Peralta being traded to the Rays, the playing time should jump. Ranked the highest for the balance.

Jorge Mateo: The speedster (24 SB) is having the best month of his season so far with a .811 OPS by dropping his strikeout rate to 24%. It would be nice if he moved up in the lineup for Runs (37) and RBI (26).

Joey Wendle: He’s been hitting (.294 AVG, 3 SB in July) while leading off. There is just no power in his profile.

Ramón Urías: The 28-year-old continues to be a fine contributor (.258 AVG, 11 HR) who is qualified at three positions (2B, SS, 3B).

Steven Kwan: The weak-hitting (.085 ISO, 2 HR) Kwan is back to being a batting average machine (.324 AVG in July). He has started stealing a few bases with three in each of June and July.

Victor Robles: He has leadoff for four straight games while hitting .235/.295/.313 with 3 HR and 12 SB on the season. A stolen base-only play.

Jeimer Candelario; He’s gotten hot by hitting .275/.359/.536 with 5 HR in July. He didn’t show any power to start this season, but his Hard Hit% is finally rebounding off a low.

Ezequiel Duran: I missed recommending Duran last week. He’s taken back over the Rangers third base job. He’s started eight of nine games since being recalled and is hitting .253/.299/.396 with 2 HR and 3 SB in 97 MLB PA. Speed option at third base.

Nick Pratto: He’s started in 11 of the last 12 games while hitting .222/.341/.444 in 44 PA. His 30% K% (31% K% in AAA) will limit his batting average upside. He did steal eight bases in AAA but hasn’t attempted one in the majors yet.

JJ Bleday: The 24-year-old has started six straight in center field. Everything is as advertised with good power (.192 ISO) but with a low batting average (33% K%). The one part of his game that hasn’t translated over to the majors is his walk rate (16% in AAA, 4% in the majors).

Austin Slater: The Giants had a stretch of 10 games when they faced seven lefties. During that stretch, Slater hit .267/.389/.400 with 0 HR and 0 SB in 36 PA. The Giants are scheduled to face four more lefties (all Dodgers) to start next week. A week-to-week play.

Darin Ruf 러프: Only faces lefties and has crushed them this year hitting .365/.542/.907 with 9 HR (.573 OPS vs LHP).

Raimel Tapia: He’s started five times in the last 10 games. While he’s hitting .287/.310/.415 with 5 HR and 5 SB, it’s not enough volume to be fantasy relevant.

Seth Brown: The Athletics had a nice stretch where they only faced righties, so Brown (.766 OPS vs RHP, .492 OPS vs LHP) became a decent option. This upcoming week, he faces just three righties. Needs to be moved to the waiver wire.

Nelson Velázquez: The 23-year-old has hit 5 HR and stole two bases in 78 PA. He’s been picking on lefties (1.070 OPS vs LHP, .627 OPS vs RHP). I think the demand is from fantasy managers hoping he will move to a full-time role if Happ gets traded.

Chad Pinder: He got a few extra starts with Seth Brown on the paternity list. Pinder is hitting for some power but not much else (.243/.268/.412 and 9 HR). He needs every at-bat to be fantasy relevant.

Catchers

Carson Kelly: Kelly has been great since coming off the IL (.287/.343/.532 with 5 HR) and should be rostered by some team in all leagues.

Danny Jansen: He has started in six of the last 10 games while hitting .238/.298/.571 with 9 HR on the season.

Elias Díaz: Stream at home (Colorado), release when on the road.

CBS Hitter Rostership Rates
Name Previous Roster% Current Roster% Change
Steven Kwan LF CLE 39% 56% 17%
Jorge Mateo SS BAL 34% 39% 5%
Elias Diaz C COL 27% 29% 2%
Carson Kelly C ARI 22% 32% 10%
Jeimer Candelario 3B DET 21% 28% 7%
Ramon Urias 3B BAL 20% 46% 26%
Danny Jansen C TOR 19% 22% 3%
Austin Slater CF SF 19% 21% 2%
Joey Wendle 3B MIA 17% 20% 3%
Seth Brown 1B OAK 15% 17% 2%
Nick Pratto 1B KC 14% 17% 3%
J.J. Bleday CF MIA 12% 20% 8%
Darin Ruf 1B SF 10% 12% 2%
Ezequiel Duran 3B TEX 10% 12% 2%
Raimel Tapia LF TOR 8% 16% 8%
Victor Robles CF WAS 7% 11% 4%
Chad Pinder LF OAK 6% 8% 2%
Nelson Velazquez RF CHC 2% 4% 2%
Jake McCarthy RF ARI 1% 3% 2%

Starters

Brady Singer: Singer is ranked 8th in K%-BB% in July with his overall stats at 9.7 K/9, 1.13 WHIP, and 3.51 ERA (3.22 xFIP). He needs to be rostered in all formats at this point.

Braxton Garrett: Garrett is ranked 15th in K%-BB% in July with an overall 3.96 ERA (3.35 xFIP), 1.18 WHIP, and 9.5 K/9. He needs to be rostered in all formats at this point.

Reid Detmers: The love for Determers is based on the story of a new slider that has him with a 1.06 ERA, 10.1 K/9, and 0.94 WHIP in three July starts (vs ATL, HOU, BAL). After digging in, there is more going on. The slider got better in June along with his change taking a major step forward.

Also, he has gone from throwing his slider from 17% of the time to 33%. Finally, his pitches are up in velocity.

Pitch: Apr Velo, July Velo
Four-seam: 93.2, 93.6
Change: 84.0, 84.3
Slider: 82.9, 86.0
Curve: 72.3, 73.3

Simple he’s just a better pitcher.

Kutter Crawford: Crawford has been decent as a starter with an 8.0 K/9, 1.01 WHIP, and a 3.41 ERA. He’s taken a step forward by kutting down his walk rate.

Month: BB/9
Apr: 7.7
May: 4.9
Jun: 4.0
Jul: 1.3

He’s one of the few decent pop-up starters this season.

Jose Quintana: While Quintana started the season as a waiver wire streamer he has slowly lowered his walk rate and become a reliable starter.

Month: BB/9, xFIP
Apr: 3.8, 4.00
May: 3.0, 4.10
Jun: 2.4, 3.62
Jul: 2.0, 2.48

He’s not sexy, but he’s getting the job done.

Mitch Keller: My weekly check on how Keller is doing since he began featuring his sinker: 3.47 ERA, 55% GB%, 8.2 K/9, 3.0 BB/9. That’ll play.

Jakob Junis: It was a two-start week for Junis (he hasn’t pitched yet on Saturday as I write this). In his second start off the IL, he lasted 4.1 innings (62 pitches) while striking out two batters and allowing one run. It is encouraging to see his fastball velocity up.

JT Brubaker: So far this season, he’s been fine (9.1 K/9, 1.43 WHIP, 3.96 ERA). He’s in the middle of the two-start week (at CHC, vs PHI) and schedule to face Baltimore next week.

Spenser Watkins: Watkins is probably being added because of a potential two-start week against the Rangers and Pirates. He’s taken a small step forward but keeping his walk rate under 2.0 BB/9 since June 1st.

Janson Junk: While starting in AAA, Junk had a 3.88 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 7.4 K/9. In his first major league start this season, the 26-year-old struck out eight Royals in 5 IP (86 pitches). He focused on this fastball (9% Swstr%, 48% GB%) and slider (11 SwStr%, 20% GB%) against the Royals. His projections are all over the place with the most optimistic ones having him with a 4.50 ERA. I want to see more before rostering him.

Pitching Prospect

DL Hall: He’s showing some command issues in AAA with a 4.45 ERA, 15.1 K/9, 5.3 BB/9, and 1.40 WHIP.

CBS Starter Rostership Rates
Name Previous Roster% Current Roster% Change
Reid Detmers SP LAA 40% 47% 7%
Braxton Garrett SP MIA 34% 62% 28%
Brady Singer SP KC 33% 58% 25%
Jake Junis SP SF 30% 36% 6%
Jose Quintana SP PIT 24% 26% 2%
J.T. Brubaker SP PIT 20% 23% 3%
Mitch Keller SP PIT 18% 21% 3%
DL Hall RP BAL 14% 17% 3%
Spenser Watkins SP BAL 11% 13% 2%
Kutter Crawford RP BOS 10% 16% 6%
Janson Junk SP LAA 0% 2% 2%

Relievers

Kyle Finnegan: Decent reliever who is the closer.

Scott Effross: Good reliever who may end up the closer once the Cubs empty their bullpen of talented arms.

Luis García, Nick Martinez, Adrian Morejon: Good relievers who are likely sharing the closer duties.

Zach Jackson: Good reliever who is the backup closer.

Félix Bautista: Great reliever who is the backup.

A.J. Puk: Good reliever who is a couple of steps away from closing.

Evan Phillips: Good reliever who is the backup closer.

Rafael Montero: Good reliever who is the backup closer.

Mychal Givens: Good reliever who is the backup but also likely to be traded.

CBS Reliever Rostership Rates
Name Previous Roster% Current Roster% Change
Rafael Montero RP HOU 27% 29% 2%
Kyle Finnegan RP WAS 22% 25% 3%
A.J. Puk RP OAK 11% 17% 6%
Evan Phillips RP LAD 11% 14% 3%
Felix Bautista RP BAL 10% 14% 4%
Zach Jackson RP OAK 5% 10% 5%
Mychal Givens RP CHC 3% 5% 2%
Luis Garcia RP SD 3% 5% 2%
Scott Effross RP CHC 1% 3% 2%





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR once, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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CapricaCity
14 days ago

“Kutting down on his walk rate,” lol.