Waiver Wire Report (7/24/22)

It’s so tough to see who has jumped in value with a few games played. I’m guessing Sunday news and performance will matter more than ever.

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.

Batters

Leody Taveras: Taveras has started nine straight games in center field and is hitting .337/.374/.543 with 3 HR and 5 SB. Not everything under the hood is great, but the 23-year-old looks to be putting it all together and is probably the best and most balanced player available.

Matt Carpenter: The second coming of peak Barry Bonds is still crushing everything (13 HR and .326 AVG in 106 PA). He’s playing enough (started in seven of the last ten games) to have fantasy value. The worry might be that he starts to struggle and goes back to maybe starting one out of every three games.

Nick Pratto: The 23-year-old Pratto got called up when the Royal Ten took an 11-day vacation instead of going to Toronto. Everyone figured Pratto would get demoted back to AAA but an injury to Edward Olivares has Pratto back in the bigs. In AAA, Pratto was hitting .240/.374/.484 with 17 HR and 8 SB. His batting average was being dragged down by a 31% K%. In the majors so far, he has a 26% K% and in five games has only seen 35% fastballs. The book on him must be to pound the offspeed (26% usage) and sliders (20% usage). His current .333 AVG seems fine but could go sour fast. He gets a boost over everyone else because of the stolen base potential.

Jose Miranda: So far this season, Miranda has 8 HR and 0 SB to go with a .251 AVG in 198 PA. Prorated out to 600 PA, it’s a pretty empty 24 HR. I think there were some expectations of a higher batting average after posting a .345 AVG in AA last year and a .343 AVG in AAA. So far in the majors, there aren’t many signs of a rebound. Normally his strikeout rate is in the low teens but now it’s at 19%. Also, his xAVG is only at .217. Nothing points to a batting average rebound.

As for playing time, he’s just started in seven of the last ten games. For someone whose value is tied to counting stats, he doesn’t play enough to maximize them. A streaming bench bat with his first and third base eligibility.

Ramón Urías: Urias has been surprisingly useful with 9 HR and a .255 AVG in 234 PA while being qualified at three positions (2B, SS, 3B). The power seems legit with a 50% StatCast HardHit% and his average launch angle is up 6 degrees (5 degrees to 11 degrees).

Carlos Santana: Once he got healthy around June 1st, he has hit .284/.415/.491 with 6 HR in 142 PA. Basically Miranda with a little more batting average and no third base eligibility.

Austin Slater: He has been a lefty killer over his career (.858 OPS vs LHP, .657 OPS vs RHP) and he’s facing three in this short week. Next week, he’ll face five. When he plays, he’s been great with 5 HR, 6 SB, and a .297 AVG. A one-week play.

JJ Bleday: The Marlins just promoted the 24-year-old Bleday who was hitting .228/.365/.470 with 20 HR and 1 SB in 367 AAA PA. While on the major league roster, he didn’t start but did pinch hit his first game.

José Iglesias: He had a good July by hitting .311/.328/.475 but that’s not surprising with 10 of his 16 games being at home (Colorado). For me, he is just a home streamer and this upcoming week, he has six home games (CHW and LAD).

Catchers

Cal Raleigh: A power-only (13 HR, .202 AVG) at catcher.

Joey Bart: It doesn’t matter that Bart has 6 HR when he has a 43% K%.

Hitting prospects

Gunnar Henderson: He hit .312/.452/.573 with 8 HR and 12 SB in 208 AA PA. He’s hitting .269/.389/.487 with 5 HR and 3 SB in 144 AAA PA.

Starters

Braxton Garrett: It feels like I’ve been writing up Garrett for over a month and I will again next week with his roster rate under 40%. His 18% K%-BB% ranks 25th among all qualified pitchers since June 1st. He’s now a must roster in all formats.

Kutter Crawford: Crawford’s fantasy value has been bouncing up and down and is now up with Chris Sale back on the IL. He throws the kitchen sink and has a 3.60 ERA, 3.46 xFIP, 9.9 K/9, and 1.15 WHIP as a starter. That’ll play.

Mitch Keller: Since Keller made the transition over the sinker on May 25th he has a 3.35 ERA, 3.65 xFIP, 55% GB%, 7.9 K/9, and 1.40 FIP. A must roster in all formats as a bench streamer.

Reid Detmers: His two starts since returning from AAA have been lights out (0.92 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, and 1.50 ERA). While it has just been two starts, he must be rostered in all leagues to see if the production continues.

Dustin May: I’ve held off on recommending May until some minor league info is available. Here is the first sample.

Dustin May in his first Triple-A rehab start: 2.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, 49 pitches/24 strikes. He lost the zone a bit and got hit a couple times, but the thing to look at is spin rates and velo: he touched 99 mph with the fastball, which is very positive. #Dodgers #AlwaysLA pic.twitter.com/oD9WbljFYq

— Bruce (@Bnicklaus7) July 23, 2022

Last season, May averaged 98 mph on his fastball so there is about 1 mph in velocity loss. Unless there was a pitch classification error, he didn’t throw any curveballs in the rehab start. In 2021, he threw curveballs 23% of the time and it was an effective pitch with a 17% SwStr% and 57% GB%. If he stays away from the pitch, it might limit his upside.

Jakob Junis: Junis has been decent as a starter this year (3.32 ERA, 7.1 K/9, 1.00 WHIP, 46% GB%) and looks to have a two-start week coming up (at ARI, vs CHC). Junis did struggle (3 ER, 2 K, 0 BB, and 5 H in 2IP) in his first appearance (non-start) since coming off the IL. He only threw 34-pitches, so I could see him limited in his first few starts.

Jake Odorizzi: It seems like he’s been added for a two-step next week against the A’s and Mariners. Even though he has a 3.56 ERA and 1.19 WHIP some regression is coming to push him to be a 4.00 ERA pitcher. Over his career, he has been able to limit hard contact with an ERA (3.93) about a half run lower than his xFIP (4.47).

JT Brubaker: He’s been decent (4.02, 9.3 K/9, and 1.41 WHIP) and it wasn’t known if he was going to face the punchless Marlins. He’s not but now it seems like he has a two-step next week (at CHC, vs PHI).

Spenser Watkins: He’s got a two-start week coming up against the Rays and at Cincinnati. While he does have a sub-4.00 ERA, his ERA estimators are in the mid-5.00’s because of a 5.3 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, and a 39% GB%. I don’t understand why Watkins’s rostership rate keeps rising.

Domingo Germán: German should be on a drop list instead of an added list. I know he is in the Yankees rotation but he’s got a career 4.63 ERA and 1.7 HR/9. He’s just not rosterable at this point.

Zach Logue: His 4.79 ERA and 1.37 HIP was optioned back to AAA.

Pitching Prospects

DL Hall: In AAA, he has a 15.2 K/9, 5.4 BB/9, 37% GB%, and 3.60 ERA.

Gavin Stone: In High-A, he had a 10.1 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 54% GB%, and 1.44 ERA. So far in AA, he has a 13.3 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 47% GB%, and 1.53 ERA.

Relievers – Saves-based rankings

Brett Martin: Decent reliever who is the closer.

Kyle Finnegan: Decent reliever who is the closer.

Jason Adam: Good reliever who is sharing the closer’s role.

Brooks Raley 레일리: Good reliever who is sharing the closer’s role.

Evan Phillips: Good reliever who is the backup closer.

Andrés Muñoz: Great reliever who is a couple of steps away from being the closer.