Waiver Wire Report (7/16/22)

It’s time to see how much FAAB everyone has left with two major rookie callups.

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.

Hitters

Esteury Ruiz: He stole 60 bases so far this season in the minors. If he gets on, he probably has a green light and should be added in all roto leagues. If a team doesn’t need steals, they still might want to add Ruiz to keep him off their opponents’ roster. Two question do remain.

First, will he remain in the majors with several players returning from the IL. On Friday night, he was in the lineup with Jurickson Profar returning. Also, Wil Myers and Fernando Tatis Jr. are returning soon to complicate the situation.

The second issue will be his power. Some reports out of the minors don’t have him with home run power but he hit nine in AA and three in AAA. His hardest hit ball so far in the majors is 100 mph. Normally, it takes a ball hit 102 mph to even go for a home run. We’ll see if he has the power to be a regular contributor.

Leody Taveras: It is probably to my detriment to rank Taveras this high, but it’s impossible to ignore someone hitting .346/.366/.551 with 3 HR and 5 SB in 82 PA. A .436 BABIP has the batting average up, but the rest of his profile looks legit. Some of the improvement is from dropping his strikeout rate from 32% to 25%. The gains are from making more contact (75% to 80%) with his swinging-strike rate against fastball dropping from 11% to 6%. Additionally, he’s putting more balls in the air with his groundball rate dropping from 52% GB% to 39% GB%.

Jose Miranda: The 24-year-old corner infielder is on fire in July by hitting .308/.357/.564 with 3 HR. A major issue with him will be playing time. He’s not strung together more than five starts in a row with the team loaded with corner bats and Miguel Sanó about to come off the IL.

Nolan Jones: A .462 BABIP has Jones hitting .304/.448/.522 with 1 HR. Once the BABIP regresses, his 31% K% will limit his batting average. His power metrics do look good with a .217 ISO and a 71% StatCast HardHit%. Also, he should contribute around a dozen or so steals (4 SB in 108 AAA PA). Finally, he should be qualified at third and outfield (10 games on Saturday) to help provide some positional flexibility.

Harold Ramírez: He’s hitting .329/.375/.447 with 4 HR and 3 SB and has started in eight of the last 10 games. It’s more of an accumulator profile and it helps that he’s qualified at first and the outfield.

Matt Carpenter: He’s so tough to evaluate and I’ve already written about him twice this week. There is no doubt he’s been great (.352/.465/.873 with 11 HR in 87 PA) but the playing time is so up in the air.

Akil Baddoo: The 23-year-old speedster (18 SB in 2021) is getting another chance in the majors after hitting .300/.405/.500 with 3 HR and 7 SB in AAA. Since this callup, he has two singles in 12 plate appearances. He might be worth adding as a bench bat to see if he plays, hits, and steals bases.

Aaron Hicks: First of all, Hicks is dealing with a shin injury, but hopefully he’ll be healthy after the All-Star break. Like most hitters featured today, he has hit in July (.345/.472/.828, 6 HR, 9 SB). A simple adjustment he’s made is to start hitting more balls in the air and pulling them.

One issue with Hicks is playing time. The team was cycling Hicks in with three other outfielders (Stanton, Judge, and Gallo) and now Matt Carpenter has joined the mix.

Carlos Santana: Santana continues to hit with the Mariners (.245/.383/.449, 3 HR in 60 PA) and has started in 15 of 16 games. Santana gets a huge boost in points or OBP leagues with his 17% BB%.

Yandy Díaz: Diaz is on a hot streak (.415/.492/.566), leading off, playing every day, and qualified at two positions (1B and 3B). All of those traits make him valuable even if his upside is limited because he hits way too many balls on the ground (53% GB%). Bench bat in all formats.

Nick Senzel: Senzel is getting great results in July so far (.349/.391/.512) so is there anything to his breakout? His plate discipline is similar. He’s not hitting the ball any harder. The main adjustment he might have made is to hit the ball in the air more (50% GB% in June to 33% in July) and pulling it more (29% Pull% in June to 32% in July). Even with his hot July, he just has a .649 OPS on the season.

Gavin Sheets: I am pretty sure managers were picking up Sheets for this past week when the White Sox were facing six righties. When playing, Sheets provides some power (7 HR) but now much else. I might stay away from him for this upcoming week since it’ll be tough to guess upcoming rotations.

Aledmys Díaz: Díaz got a chance to be a regular because of Yordan Alvarez going on the IL. The 31-year-old Diaz has hit OK this year (.237/.294/.376 with 6 HR and 1 SB) but is not a difference maker. Bench streamer when starting.

Jonathan Aranda: [Note: Demoted to AAA] Like with all Rays, playing time is the biggest question. Since being recalled from AAA where he was hitting .330/.403/.546 with 13 HR and 4 SB, he’s started three of five games. He has a .813 OPS in 16 MLB PA. I’ll pass until he’s more than a part-time player.

Catchers

Eric Haase: Haase started the season out slow but is hitting .293/.337/.561 with 5 HR since June 1st.

Carson Kelly: Since coming off the IL, he’s hitting a respectable .243/.286/.429 with 3 HR.

Cal Raleigh: A decent power only bat (12 HR, 1 SB).

Seby Zavala: The 28-year-old is hitting .303/.349/.474 with 2 HR since becoming the full-time catcher.

Starters

Braxton Garrett: I still don’t get the low roster rate for Garrett. Of the 85 pitchers who have thrown at least 40 IP since June 1st, Garrett ranks 31st in K%-BB%. His 3.70 ERA could even drop as seen with his 3.52 xFIP. His 8.7 K/9 and 1.23 WHIP are respectable. I’d gladly roster Garrett over Meyers. I think the hope for Meyers is that he’ll produce like Garrett. Why not go ahead and get the guy who is doing it.

Max Meyer: The 23-year-old righty made his major league debut on Saturday and got hit around (5 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, and 5 K in 5 IP). The top-50 prospect threw his slider 50% of the time and it generate seven swings-and-misses. Also, he threw a 95-mph fastball and a change. In AAA, he had a 10.1 K/9, 1.00 WHIP, and 3.72 ERA. The projections are not kind to him with a 7.7 K/9, 3.4 BB, and 4.19 ERA. Some manager will go all in for him and hope he’s a difference maker.

Reid Detmers: I missed prioritizing Detmers last week but not this time around. The key is that he reworked his slider.

Detmers said he’s on the taxi squad but hasn’t been told when he’ll start yet. He said he looked at video and worked with a minor league pitching coordinator to tweak his slider because it wasn’t working this year. He said his old slider was back in his start at AAA with 14 Ks

— Rhett Bollinger (@RhettBollinger) July 7, 2022

The velocity was way up on that new slider.

In two starts (at BAL, vs HOU) since coming back, he has a 9.8 K/9, 1.50 ERA, and 0.92 WHIP.  I’m not sure I buy in that he’s a new pitcher after two starts but this will likely be the last week to roster him if available.

Kutter Crawford: I like Crawford’s talent with a 3.60 ERA, 9.9 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, and 3.45 xFIP in 20 starter IP. Those numbers are amazing even if there is some regression. Innings shouldn’t be an issue since he made it to 5 IP in four of the last five games and threw 91 pitches in his last start. The issue with him going forward is if he’s in the Red Sox rotation. A couple of arms have already returned (Eovaldi and Sale) and Michael Wacha is also returning.

Jake Odorizzi: The 3.38 ERA looks good, but it won’t last if he doesn’t improve. He has a career-low 6.5 K/9 and a not-so-great, 3.0 BB/9. He’s been able to limit home runs with his 0.4 HR/9 even though he has just a 34% GB%.

Domingo Germán: The 29-year-old righty is expected to join the Yankees rotation after the break to replace Luis Severino. One note from his last minor league rehab outing was his fastball sitting 92.5 mph.

Final line on Domingo Germán:

6 ip, 3 h, 0 r, 1 bb, 1 k. 65 pitches, 50 strikes. Fastball was 92-93.

So far on the rehab assignment:

5 g, 20.1 ip, 9 h, 1 r, 1 er, 1 bb, 11 k

— Conor Foley (@RailRidersTT) July 16, 2022

Final line on Domingo German: 6 IP, 0 R, 1 K, 1 BB, 65 pitches-50 strikes. His best inning was his last, fastball sat 91-94 mph for the night.

— Alex Yuengling (@AlexPTST) July 16, 2022

He’s never had a fastball that slow. His lowest was 93.5 mph in 2021 when he had a 4.58 ERA, 4.27 xFIP, 1.18 WHIP and 9.0 K/9. I’m not sure of the talent and the rotation spot in a couple of weeks. I’ll pass for other options.

Dean Kremer: I keep waiting for his .163 BABIP with runners on base to regress and it did some on Saturday (3 ER, 8 H, 2 K, and 0 BB in 4 IP). The lack of runners scoring has ERA at 2.59, two runs lower than his ERA estimators (4.62 xFIP).

Brad Keller: Keller is a fine pitcher (4.22 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 6.2 K/9) to stream against weaker teams.

Spenser Watkins: Nothing in Watkins’s profile points to him being a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher (1.53 ERA in July). The only hope is that he made some recent changes. The only thing I could find was that he’s throwing his cutter (14% SwStr%, 42% GB%) more since being recalled from the minors (21% usage to 31%). His strikeout rate is up from 4.2 K/9 to 6.8 K/9. Improvements, but not enough to move the must-roster needle with me.

Jordan Lyles: Coming into the season, I considered Lyles a streamer against weaker opponents. Has anything changed to revalue him? His average fastball velocity is down over 1 mph (92.8 to 91.6). His full-season strikeout, walk, and groundball rate are almost identical to last season. His 1.86 ERA (3.92 xFIP) in June must be enticing but is being suppressed by a .259 BABIP and 93% LOB%. Some recent good luck hasn’t changed his fantasy value.

Adrian Sampson 샘슨: In four starts, Sampson has a 4.22 ERA, 4.04 xFIP, 7.2 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, and 44% GB%. These stats are perfectly fine for a streaming starter.

Josh Winder: Since being recalled, he’s thrown 10 IP allowing 7 ER, 11 H, 4 BB, and 5 K. His 6.30 ERA is fairly close to his mid to high-5.00’s ERA estimators. Right now, something is off I would not roster him.

Max Castillo In two starts so far, Castillo has only thrown 7 IP and allowed 4 ER, 8 HR, 1 BB, and 4 K. I’m not buying in just yet and I especially want him to go longer into games.

Beau Brieske: I think Brieske’s is being evaluated on his 2.95 ERA in July (5.4 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, .232 BABIP). Now over his last two starts, he cut his four-seam usage in half and threw his other pitches more (sinker, change, slider). His changeup is the only pitch with a swinging strike rate over 10% so altering his mix shouldn’t matter. I’m not buying any breakout.

Michael Pineda: Coming into Saturday’s game, Pineda had a 3.58 ERA and 4.79 xFIP. He left the game with a 5.22 ERA and 4.85 xFIP. No pitcher is going to remain productive in today’s game with a 4.5 K/9 and 38% GB%.

Dustin May: He’s still too far from joining the MLB club for me to consider rostering.

José Ureña: There is no reason to roster a Rockies pitcher who has a career-4.71 ERA.

Relievers – Saves-based ranks

Alexis Díaz: Good reliever who is the closer.

Lou Trivino: Good reliever who is the closer.

Brett Martin: Below-average reliever who is the closer.

Kyle Finnegan: Good reliever who has been declared the closer.

Evan Phillips: Great reliever who is the backup closer.

Yerry De Los Santos: Great reliever who is the backup closer.

Andrés Muñoz: Great reliever who is a couple of steps away from closing.