Waiver Wire Preview (Week 25)

This weekend, I have to travel a decent distance for my aunt’s funeral, so I’m off not going to be available for a few days. For the weekend, Jordan Rosenblum will have a waiver wire article article but I went ahead and looked into some players who could be or not be options.

Batters

Note on hitters. If in a Roto league, roster who you need. If power, Matt Wallner. If speed, Otto Lopez. If all around, Tommy Pham. I haven’t spotted any major value movers since MLB teams made waiver wire claims before September 1st. Check out my Big Kid Adds where the managers in these competitive leagues added Trevor Story (a drop for me), Grant McCray (power and speed, batting average sink), or Jonny DeLuca (regular starts).

Spencer Horwitz: He’s been on fire over the last month hitting .317/.386/.633 with 6 HR. His stats are up because he’s being benched against most lefties (.916 OPS vs RHP, .511 OPS vs LHP). Next week, Toronto has only four righties on the schedule so the volume might not be there.

Thomas Saggese: The 22-year-old was just promoted by the Cardinals where he’s started two games so far (2B and SS). To start with, his Steamer600 projections aren’t encouraging.

None of the traits are even average but the overall profile is acceptable which also describes his AAA stats (.253/.313/.438, 20 HR, 9 SB in 528 PA). I’d stay away unless he’s the only waiver-wire option.

Michael Siani: Starting every game in center field while decent source of steals (17 SB) with three steals since coming off the IL.

Pavin Smith: A three home run game automatically makes a player a must-add. The deal is that Smith has been close to useless over his career (1200 PA). Prorating his stats to 600 PA, it 18 HR, 3 SB, 144 R+RBI, and .242 AVG. That’s the talent level of Josh Bell and Andrew Vaughn.

Those numbers assume full-time at-bats but the most he’s had in a season was 545 PA in 2021. Since then, his playing time has been limited because he struggles against lefties (career .596 OPS vs LHP, .752 vs RHP). So far this season, he has 95 PA vs rightes and just 12 against lefties.

Smith is only starting in the outfield because Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (calf) is on IL. If Gurriel remains out, Smith might be worth adding next week with six righties on the schedule.

Starters

Matthew Boyd: Of his six starts since coming off the IL, he’s only allowed more than one earned run in one game (vs NYY). The good results (2.18 ERA, 3.85 xFIP, 0.91 WHIP, and 9.6 K/9) start with a career-low 1.9 BB/9. Additionally, his 92.1 mph fastball is a career-best. Finally, he upped his changeup (20% SwStr%) usage from 19% to 27%. He’s got a two-start week coming up against the Twins and Cardinals.

Reid Detmers: For now, Detmers is scheduled for two starts next week (vs CWS, at HOU). In the 12 IP since being called up, Detmers has upped his strikeouts from 25% K% to 38% K%. The only obvious change is that he’s throwing more pitches in the strike zone (Zone% from 51% to 55%) and his walk rate dropped from 3.9 BB/9 to 3.0 BB/9.

Nick Martinez: In the eight starts since returning to the rotation in early August, Martinez has a 3.12 ERA (4.00 xFIP), 7.3 K/9, and 1.08 WHIP. During that time, he threw five pitches between 11% and 25% of the time. A decent option against Pittsburgh next week and the Cubs in the final week.

Landon Knack: I’m a fan of adding Knack with a start against the Braves on Friday and possibly lined up to face Miami next week. While he doesn’t have the name value as some of the other Dodgers starters, he is the third-best healthy one.

So far this season, he has a 3.00 ERA (4.19 xFIP), 8.7 K/9, and 0.96 WHIP. He’s shown a consistent mix over the season with a velo bump over the last two months.

J.T. Ginn: A tasty start against the White Sox on Friday for the rookie (4.58 ERA, 3.82 xFIP, 9.2 K9, and 1.17 WHIP) but from then on, he’s lined up to face the Yankees and Rangers. After the White Sox start, I’d look for an improvement but Ginn might be the best option from those available.

Albert Suárez 수아레즈: Next week, he has two reasonable starts (vs SG, at DET) for managers looking for volume. On the season, Suarez’s results are fine (3.39 ERA, 4.54 xFIP, 1.29 WHIP, and 7.2 K/9). He’s made some recent changes (fewer four-seamers, more curves) but the results have been worse (4.30 ERA, 4.72 xFIP, 6.7 K/9, and 1.30 WHIP).

Keider Montero: I’d look for Montero on the wire. He might not be there yet since he just dominated the Rockies (9 IP, o ER, 5 K, 0 BB). His next two starts line up to be against Baltimore but in the season’s last week, he will likely start against the White Sox or face the Rays. Either way, a nice matchup.

His only arsenal change has been the addition of a sinker (71% GB%, 0% SwStr%) on August 1st. Before the adjustment, he posted a 2.5 HR/9 and 36% GB%. Since then, he has a 0.8 HR/9 and 45% GB%.

Joey Cantillo: After struggling in his previous four starts (8.47 ERA, 5.08 xFIP, 4.8 BB/9), he owned the White Sox (10 K, 0 BB, and 1 ER in 7 IP). Against the White Sox, he posted a 65% FirstStrike% but it was just a 46% rate in his first four starts. If there was time to monitor him from the bench, that would be my preferred course. With just two weeks left, he needs to remain on the waiver wire.