Waiver Wire & FAAB Report (Week 7)

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.

Batters

Matt Mervis: Is Mervis better than Wade and Santana I have ranked lower. Maybe not but all the 25-year-old first baseman just hits home runs and posts decent batting averages. Last season he hit 36 HR with a .297 AVG across all levels. This year, it is a .286 AVG with 6 HR in AAA.

LaMonte Wade Jr.: While he gets buried in the lineup against lefties (career .423 OPS vs LHP, .821 vs RHP), he still starts. While he’s hit 6 HR, he is also an amazing option in point leagues with his 23% BB%.

Jarren Duran: A .406 AVG inflated by a .522 BABIP won’t last, but everything else in his profile is legit. A decent chance exists that he is on the strong side of a platoon (career .576 OPS vs LHP, .741 vs RHP).

Jack Suwinski: While he won’t have a great batting average (.238 AVG, 33% K%), he has hit six homers and stole five bases. There is a good chance he’s in a platoon (.449 OPS vs LHP, .992 OPS vs RHP).

Ji Hwan Bae: Starting about two-thirds of the time but has a 14 SB so far his season. Not a complete power sink with 2 HR.

JJ Bleday: Three straight starts while hitting fifth. In AAA, he hit .316/.429/.643 with 7 HR. He has gotten his strikeouts under control. After being just under 30% K% last season, it’s closer to 10% K% this season.

Randal Grichuk: A split week with three on the road and then three at home. It is nice to see him hitting (.692 BABIP) since coming off the IL.

Nick Pratto: He’s started seven straight games (.892 OPS, 37% K%, .579 BABIP) after getting the strikeouts under control in AAA (21% K%, 9% SwStr%). He’s shown power (combined 36 HR in ’21, 24 in ’22) but gets eaten alive by changeups (career 24% SwStr%).

Maikel Garcia: The prospect is known for his speed (35 SB in ’21, 39 SB in ’22) but hit the ball hard in AAA this year (45% HH%, 90.3 avgEV) but too many of them are on the ground (56% GB%). His Launch Angle is way up in the majors (17 degrees) with a 63% HardHit%. He’s already qualified at short but has started at third in the three of his four games.

Connor Joe: Playing and hitting (.938 OPS, 4 HR, 2 SB).

Victor Robles: A .292 AVG with 8 SB while hitting every day at the end of the Nats lineup.

CJ Abrams: Hitting enough (.240/.301/.375) to stay in the Nationals lineup while providing a disappointing amount of speed (4 SB) and some power (2 HR).

Carlos Santana: Playing, hitting (.775), and has some how stolen stolen three bases.

Matt Vierling: He has become a productive regular hitter (.274/.337/.400, 2 HR, 4 SB).

Enmanuel Valdez: He had some contact issues in AAA (12 SwStr%, 30% K%), but he has been better in the majors (11 SwStr%, 19% K%). Across all minor league levels last season he hit a .296 AVG with 28 HR and 8 SB. That’ll play. For a comparable middle infielder with a similar projection would be Rodolfo Castro.

Ezequiel Duran: Duran has been good at the plate (.307/.342/.480, 3 HR, 2 SB) and started six straight at short. His only issue is what position will he play once Corey Seager comes off the IL.

Max Kepler: Leading off most days but sat against the last two lefties and the Twins face 5 righties next week (2/3). A .234 avg drags down his value but he’s walking (10% BB%) and hitting for some power (4 HR).

Alex Call: Leadoff for 13 straight games and during that stretch he’s hit .235/.328/.392 with 2 HR and 1 SB.

Edward Olivares: He’s getting a decent amount of playing time (started eight out of ten games) and hitting (.266 AVG, 2 HR, 3 SB).

Robbie Grossman: Started in eight of the last ten games, mainly as the DH (.723 OPS, 3 HR).

Luis Garcia: Even though he’s cut his strikeout rate by over half (22% to 8%) he’s not really doing much (.658 OPS) because he hits everything on the ground (59% GB%).

Tyrone Taylor: He’s just off the IL and started four straight in right field. Given a full season, he could hit 20 and steal eight bases.

Luke Raley: Six starts in the last 10 games but is just hitting for power (.217/.286/.580, 7 HR)

Geraldo Perdomo: Dominating (.397/.468/.618, .481 BABIP, 2 HR , 1 SB) from the strong side of a shortstop platoon. Faces five righties next week in the seven scheduled games (2/3).

Taylor Trammell: While strikeouts will keep his AVG in check, he’s shown some nice power (4 HR in 13 games since coming off IL). Started four of five games in the majors but sat against the one lefty.

Zach McKinstry: Hitting (.258/.338/.424) while on the strong side of a platoon. Detroit is scheduled to face five righties (3/2) this next week.

Miguel Andujar: In the seven games since being promoted, he has started in four games, two against lefties.

Catchers

Connor Wong: He’s become the main catcher in Boston with a .268 AVG and 3 HR.

Blake Sabol: A complete lack of plate discipline (43% K%, 4% BB%) might start costing him playing time even though he has a 5 HR and 2 SB.

Yan Gomes: On the concussion IL but hit 5 HR with a .294 AVG before getting hurt.

Prospects

Christopher Morel: Over 122 AAA PA, he is hitting .337/.434/.760 with 11 HR and 4 SB.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand: Over 51 AAA PA, he is hitting .396/.431/.875 with 7 HR and 0 SB.

Justyn-Henry Malloy: Over 130 AAA PA, he is hitting .311/.438/.472 with 4 HR and 1 SB.

Colton Cowser: Over 134 AAA PA, he is hitting .314/.455/.533 with 5 HR and 4 SB.

Andrés Chaparro: Over 119 AAA PA, he is hitting .231/.303/.500 with 8 HR and 1 SB.

CBS Batter Rostership Rates
Name Prev Roster% Current Roster% Change
Ji-Hwan Bae CF PIT 40% 50% 10%
C.J. Abrams SS WAS 40% 41% 1%
Jack Suwinski CF PIT 39% 67% 28%
Jarren Duran CF BOS 38% 60% 22%
Matt Mervis 1B CHC 35% 59% 24%
Connor Joe RF PIT 34% 38% 4%
Carlos Santana 1B PIT 29% 38% 9%
Geraldo Perdomo SS ARI 27% 35% 8%
Christian Encarnacion-Strand 3B CIN 21% 35% 14%
Yan Gomes C CHC 18% 20% 2%
Colton Cowser CF BAL 16% 18% 2%
Victor Robles CF WAS 15% 18% 3%
Max Kepler RF MIN 15% 17% 2%
Randal Grichuk CF COL 14% 17% 3%
Christopher Morel CF CHC 12% 14% 2%
Blake Sabol C SF 12% 14% 2%
Luis Garcia 2B WAS 11% 12% 1%
Ezequiel Duran SS TEX 8% 29% 21%
Nick Senzel CF CIN 6% 34% 28%
Edward Olivares LF KC 5% 11% 6%
Robbie Grossman DH TEX 5% 8% 3%
J.J. Bleday CF OAK 5% 8% 3%
Matt Vierling RF DET 5% 6% 1%
LaMonte Wade 1B SF 4% 22% 18%
Nick Pratto RF KC 4% 7% 3%
Luke Raley RF TB 4% 7% 3%
Maikel Garcia SS KC 3% 6% 3%
Justyn-Henry Malloy 3B DET 3% 5% 2%
Enmanuel Valdez 2B BOS 2% 6% 4%
Zach McKinstry 2B DET 2% 4% 2%
Taylor Trammell LF SEA 2% 3% 1%
Alex Call LF WAS 2% 3% 1%
Andres Chaparro 3B NYY 2% 3% 1%
Connor Wong C BOS 1% 10% 9%
Miguel Andujar LF PIT 1% 3% 2%
Tyrone Taylor RF MIL 1% 2% 1%

Starters

Bryce Miller: It’s time to unload your wallets for him. Everything I examine from the start and AA stats is legit plus talent. A couple of small issues. His low GB% and the subsequent home runs allowed might lead to a few blowups. Also, I see his fastball is getting great “STUFF” grades but it’s probably more of a 10% SwStr% vs the 14% he got in his first start.

Tyler Wells: A .157 BABIP is keeping his 0.77 WHIP and 3.34 ERA way below where they should be. In 195 career innings over three seasons, he has a .226 BABIP. I have a measure of fieldable contact (groundballs and popups) and Wells is one of the top starters at 52%. His four-seam, cutter, and slider all generate a ton of pop-ups and his change and curve generate groundballs. My pERA looks at the individual pitch results and it values him as a 3.36 ERA pitcher.

Bailey Ober: Ober’s low 27% GB% means he can generate easy to catch flyballs (.217 BABIP) but he has been lucky enough to not allow a home run yet. His ERA estimators are in the mid to high-4.00’s but he currently has a 0.98 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. Regression will be coming at some point and probably the best guess for a final rate would be around his career 3.51 ERA.

Louie Varland: The White Sox hit him around in his second start (4 IP, 4 ER, 6K, 2 BB). While the opposing team is teeing off on him (3.4 HR/9, .346 AVG), his 23.4% K%-BB% would rank eighth between Logan Gilbert and Hunter Greene. Worth rostering but I can understand not starting him until his talent level is know.

Braxton Garrett: He tried to introduce a cutter against the Braves in his last start and it got lit up (vs 1.667 OPS). Additionally, he backed off his four-seam (8% SwStr%) and slider (22% SwStr%) and threw his sinker (6% SwStr%) more. He was doing great (2.45 ERA, 3.19 FIP, 54% GB%, 7.8 K/9, 1.2 BB) until that start. So the big question going forward is if he’ll go back to what was working or will he try out the cutter again when he has a nice two step (at ARI, vs CIN).

Josiah Gray: Gray is just feeding opposing batters his slider 46% of the time. He is just dominating batters with a 24% K%-BB% the first time through the order but just a 6% K%-BB% the second time once they catch on to him. While every ERA predictor points to him having a 4.50 ERA, his 87% LOB% is keeping runs off the board. His 8.6 K/9 is fine but the 3.5 BB/9 is leading to a disastrous 1.34 WHIP.

Ranger Suárez: So far in two rehab starts, he has gone just two innings in each while lacking some control so far (4.5 BB/9). In his AAA appearance, his fastball averaged 92.5 mph (career 92.8 mph) so velocity should be an issue.

Michael Soroka: Currently making AAA rehab starts. Over 16 IP, the results haven’t been great (4.86 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 7.6 K/9). His AAA 92.5 mph fastball is exactly at his career average.

Brayan Bello: Even with a 56% GB%, Bello has been snakebit by home runs (2.1 HR/9). Additionally, many of those groundballs are getting through (.385 BABIP). Getting hit around means he has a 1.73 WHIP and 5.71 ERA. On the other hand, he has a 3.67 xFIP and 3.83 SIERA. His issue is that he’s either allowing groundballs or line drives. He has not generated on infield popup this season.

JP Sears: There are some decent underlying aspects of Sears like his 19.7% K%-BB% which is similar to Lynn, Peralta, and Valdez. Holding back Sears right now is just a 29% GB% (2.0 HR/9) and his supporting cast on the Athletics. He really struggles against lefties with a -4% K%-BB% against them and 26% against righties. He needs his change to play up to get out lefties.

J.P. France: Got a late start on Saturday against the Mariners. In AAA, 29-year-old was getting strikeouts but was rocking a 5.1 BB/9. He’s always had walk issues but usually a strikeout rate over 10 K/9. His Saturday start will anchor his value.

Vince Velasquez: While Velasquez and Gray where getting eerily similar results, Velasquez is on the IL in elbow inflammation. He’s probably not rosterable unless a team has open IL slots or a long bench.

Rich Hill: At least the NAIA legend has his fastball averaging over 88 mph in his last two start. There is just nothing to hope on with him as he solidifies himself as a high 4.00’s ERA pitcher. I’m sure some will give him a chance at home against Colorado next week.

Corey Kluber: Kluber had a two start week (vs STL, Matz next week) with the Blue Jays getting to him for 3 ER in 5 IP. He faced Boston on Saturday for the second matchup. The biggest issue with him is the walks (3.7 BB/9) and the 1.40 WHIP.

Gavin Stone: The 24-year-old made his major league debut this past week and struggled against the Phillies (4 ER, 1 K, and 2 BB in 4 IP). He has had issues with his command in AAA (4.4 BB/9) and that continued into the majors. He mainly went fastball and change (88% combined usage), but his slider was the swing-and-miss pitch. In AAA, his change was his best pitch (26% SwStr%, 58% GB%). Something seemed off and he’s now back in the minors.

Brandon Bielak: The 27-year-old righty might be getting some starts with the Astros rotation decimated. The biggest issue with Bielak is throwing strikes (4.1 BB/9 in 98 major league innings). If he gets the walks under control, his slider (career 16% SwStr%) and change (17%) are decent.

Dane Dunning: He got one start with deGrom out and will likely get another one next week. A .187 BABIP has him with a 1.42 ERA and 0.79 BABIP. It is sure was not the strikeouts (5.0 K/9) leading to the low ERA. It doesn’t help that he has a 90-mph fastball and his best swing-and-miss pitch (changeup, 12% SwStr%) only gets thrown 14% of the time.

Ryan Feltner: He’s in the middle of a two start week. Against the Brewers at home, he pitched fine going 5.1 IP with 3 K, 1 BB, and 2 ER. On Sunday, he has to face the Mets in New York. He’s unrosterable at this point with his 4.5 BB/9 and subsequent 1.45 WHIP.

Yonny Chirinos: Just a 3.7 K/9 over 19 IP. A .158 BABIP (career .265 BABIP) and no home runs allowed have him with a 1.86 ERA and 0.78 WHIP. His ERA estimators are well over 5.00. And most of those good stats are when he was in the bullpen. In his one start, it was 0 K, 4 BB, and 3 ER in 5 IP.

Starters

Matthew Liberatore: In 33 AAA IP, he has a 2.14 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 12.0 K/9.

Andrew Abbott: In 25 IP across two minor-league levels, he has a 1.40 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, and 17.9 K/9.

Ben Brown: In 15 IP across two minor-league levels, he has a 0.70 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 13.0 K/9.

CBS Starter Rostership Rates
Name Prev Roster% Current Roster% Change
Josiah Gray SP WAS 40% 53% 13%
Vince Velasquez SP PIT 37% 55% 18%
Mike Soroka SP ATL 36% 37% 1%
Ranger Suarez SP PHI 35% 36% 1%
Tyler Wells SP BAL 33% 54% 21%
Corey Kluber SP BOS 29% 32% 3%
Gavin Stone SP LAD 26% 43% 17%
Brayan Bello SP BOS 22% 23% 1%
Matthew Liberatore SP STL 21% 23% 2%
Bailey Ober SP MIN 19% 38% 19%
Braxton Garrett RP MIA 16% 19% 3%
Andrew Abbott SP CIN 11% 14% 3%
Rich Hill SP PIT 10% 15% 5%
Bryce Miller P SEA 7% 59% 52%
Dane Dunning RP TEX 5% 11% 6%
Yonny Chirinos RP TB 5% 9% 4%
JP Sears RP OAK 5% 7% 2%
Ryan Feltner SP COL 4% 8% 4%
Louie Varland SP MIN 3% 14% 11%
Ben Brown SP CHC 2% 4% 2%
J.P. France SP HOU 0% 4% 4%
Brandon Bielak 0% 1% 1%

Relievers: Saves-based ranks

Will Smith: OK reliever who has been anointed the closer.

Kyle Finnegan: OK reliever who is the closer.

Jason Adam: Good reliever who should get the bulk of the Save chances.

Brusdar Graterol: Good reliever who is sharing the closer’s role.

Michael King: Great reliever who is getting close to having the closer’s role.

Mark Leiter Jr.: Good reliever who might be the closer.

Keynan Middleton: Good reliever who seems to be sharing the closers role.

Brad Boxberger: Below-average reliever who might have lost his chance for Saves.

Yennier Cano: Great reliever who is the backup closer.

Josh Winckowski: Good reliever who is the backup closer (several sites have John Schreiber but recent usage says otherwise).

Erik Swanson: Good reliever who is the backup closer.

Matt Moore: Decent reliever who is the backup closer.

Peter Strzelecki: OK reliever who is the backup closer.

Bryan Baker: Decent reliever who is now a couple steps away from closing.

Matt Brash: Good reliever who is a few steps away from closing.

CBS Reliever Rostership Rates
Name Prev Roster% Current Roster% Change
Will Smith RP TEX 38% 54% 16%
Kyle Finnegan RP WAS 38% 41% 3%
Brusdar Graterol RP LAD 30% 36% 6%
Michael King RP NYY 26% 42% 16%
Brad Boxberger RP CHC 22% 28% 6%
Jason Adam RP TB 20% 31% 11%
Erik Swanson RP TOR 12% 17% 5%
Yennier Cano RP BAL 9% 24% 15%
Matt Brash RP SEA 8% 11% 3%
Peter Strzelecki RP MIL 5% 7% 2%
Bryan Baker RP BAL 4% 10% 6%
Josh Winckowski RP BOS 4% 7% 3%
Matt Moore RP LAA 3% 7% 4%
Mark Leiter RP CHC 3% 7% 4%
Keynan Middleton RP CHW 0% 2% 2%





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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drbn8rmember
9 months ago

You do a great job with this every week. Thanks.