Waiver Wire & FAAB Report (Week 6)

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.

Batters

Jack Suwinski: Now that Suwinski is no longer in a platoon, his value has taken off. It also helps that he’s improved his eye (31% K% to 27%, 11% BB% to 18% BB%) to have him at a .276 AVG, 5 HR, 4 SB. This might be the last chance to roster him.

Brent Rooker: He’s on fire with 8 HR and a 1.213 OPS. The key to his breakout is his strikeout rate dropping from 31% K% to 17% K%.

Jake Burger. With Moncada (bulging disk in his back) out for a few more week, the red hot Burger (.259/.349/.722, 7 HR) can keep getting steady at-bats.

Paul DeJong: Since coming off the IL (back), he’s started five of six games while hitting .400/.429/.800 with 2 HR. The infield situation is turning into a mess with Edman (.850 OPS, 4 HR, 3 SB) hitting great and Donovan (.710 OPS, 2 HR, 2 SB) hitting OK.

Jarren Duran: Duran has come out firing (.436/.455/.718, .571 BABIP, 1 HR, 2 SB) but he might be in a platoon. He’s started every game except for one since being promoted but it was against a lefty (career .540 OPS vs LHP, .722 vs RHP). The Red Sox are supposed to face a lefty on Sunday so monitor if Duran starts or not.

Harold Ramírez: He’s been on fire (.333/.395/.638, 5 HR) but regularly sits against a random righty. Started in seven of the last 10 games.

Ji Hwan Bae: He’s been running wild (10 SB) but he is losing some playing time as he struggles to be an average real life player (27% K%, .113 ISO, .678 OPS).

Rodolfo Castro: Playing every day, qualified at three positions (2B, SS, 3B), and hitting (.279/.383/.471, 3 HR, 1 SB).

Enrique Hernández: He’s started 21 straight games with hitting fine (.245/.318/.398, 3 HR, 1 SB) while being qualified at shortstop, outfield, and possibly second base (seven games).

Mauricio Dubón: He’s been putting the ball in play (8% K%) with no power (.087 ISO, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 18 Runs). He has stole two bases which is his season total from the previous three seasons.

Edmundo Sosa: Started at third base in seven straight games since coming off the IL while hitting .320/.346/.560 with 1 HR and 1 SB during that time.

Spencer Steer: Hitting every day in the top third of the lineup but just has a .712 OPS with 2 HR and 1 SB. His power (.145 ISO, .183 xISO) has been a little disappointing.

Carlos Santana: He’s starting every day and the shift ban might allow him to have a reasonable batting average (.261 AVG). Also has 2 HR and 2 SB.

Connor Joe: He’s playing (started in nine of the 10 games) and hitting (.304/.392/.580, 3 HR, 1 SB).

Nick Senzel: Started in 13 of 15 games since coming off the IL while hitting fine (.250/.321/.354, 1 HR, 2 SB).

Jeimer Candelario: Steady (.232/.278/.394, 4 HR) and playing.

Bryan De La Cruz: He was a on a run of 16 straight starts but has sat in two of the last three. The issue is that Avisaíl García (.808 OPS, 2 HR) has been on a hot streak over the past week.

Alex Kirilloff: He’s crushing his rehab stint (.346/.469/.731, 3 HR, 2 SB) and it is about done. There is talk that he might be assigned to AAA with the MLB team seat at first (Gallo) and DH (Buxton). I think it’s lose-lose for him right now. He’s either going to be in the minors or in a major league time share. Possibly Gallo plays in the outfield (four games this year) thereby making Gallo, Larnach, and Kepler share two spots. I could understand if someone wants to make him their number one priority but there is huge downside.

Joey Ortiz: Demoted: Ignore Only one major league game so far but was hitting .359/.389/.500 with 0 HR and 1 SB in AAA. He might have a bit more power than he has shown with a 115 mph maxEV (11th highest in MLB), 64% HH% (4th highest), and 95.4 avgEV (4th highest). Playing time will set his valuation going forward.

Wilmer Flores: Started in eight of the last 10 games and is hitting .267/.313/.467 with 3 HR. It helps that Flores is qualified at three positions (1B, 2B, 3B).

Leody Taveras: Started 13 of 15 games since coming off the IL while posting a .216/.273/.333 line with 0 HR and 1 SB. I wonder if his oblique is still bothering him.

Jake Meyers: He’s at 12 straight starts while hitting .267/.333/.367 with 1 HR on the season.

Ezequiel Duran: Since his last call-up, he’s started in nine of 12 games while playing all over (SS qualified already, 7 games in OF, 3 at 2B, 2 at 3B). Since he’s a free swinger (2% BB%, 28% K%) and hitting .291/.328/.400 with 1 HR and 2 SB on the season.

Corey Julks: On the strong side of a platoon with five games (3-2 split) against righties next week. He’s hitting a decent .300/.306/.443 with 2 HR and 1 SB.

Taylor Walls: While he’s hitting fine (.278/.381/.537, 3 HR, 2 SB) but has only started in five of the last 10 games.

Sam Hilliard: Hilliard has been great (.296/.367/.537, 3 HR, 4 SB) but with some major underlying issue (42% K%, .500 BABIP). I’m not sure how to value Hilliard with Harris coming off the IL. Hilliard was already getting platooned against lefties (with Pillar) so his playing time should be tracked over the next few days.

Brenton Doyle: He’s started four straight in centerfield after hitting.306/.404/.633 in AAA. He might always have strikeout issues (>30% K% since 2021 across all levels) but looks to be a decent power and speed combo (25 HR, 23 SB in the minors last year).

Pavin Smith: On the strong side of a platoon but is scheduled to only face two lefties next week. Continues to hit when playing (.343/.465/.600, 2 HR).

Alan Trejo: Starting but not exactly hitting (.208/.236/.264, 0 HR, 1 SB).

Geraldo Perdomo: Strong side platoon bat who is riding his .487 BABIP to a .370/.452/.574 line with 1 HR and 1 SB.

Michael Busch: He looked to be demoted with several players coming off the paternity list, but the Martinez IL stint will keep him. He’s only started three games since being promoted and is struggling at the plate (.282 OPS, 46% K%). In AAA he was hitting .337/.461/.506 with 2 HR and 1 SB in 102 PA.

Cathers

Christian Bethancourt 베탄코트: He’s got about a 60% catching share in Tampa while hitting .250/.311/.536 with 4 HR.

Yan Gomes: He’s been good (.302/.308/.556, 5 HR, 12% K%) while starting most days.

Shea Langeliers: He’s showing some nice power (6 HR).

Hitting Prospects

Matt Mervis: Hitting .269/.392/.551 with 6 HR and 0 SB in AAA.

Justyn-Henry Malloy: Hitting .341/.477/.494 with 3 HR and 1 SB in AAA.

Starting Pitchers

Braxton Garrett: Garrett has been amazing so far even with the near 1.5 mph loss in fastball velo. The biggest improvement is the 1.2 BB/9. Also, the 54% GB% doesn’t hurt.

Matt Strahm: He’s made the transition to starting go smoother than anyone expected (12.3 K/9, 2.31 ERA, 0.81 WHIP) and threw over five innings in his last two starts. He needs to be universailly rostered at this point to see if the results continue.

Tanner Bibee: After destroying AAA (11.2 K/9, 1.04 WHIP, 1.76 ERA), he got the call to the majors and shoved in his first start (5 IP, 8 K, 0 BB, 1 ER). It looks like he’ll get the start on Wednesday against the Cards but the playing time after that might be up in the air. I pretty sure he’ll stay but it’s not guaranteed.

Logan Allen: Allen was great in AAA (12.3 K/9, 1.05 WHIP, and 1.26 ERA) and good in his first start (6 IP, 8 K, 1 BB, 1 ER). Like Bibee, the only issue Allen faces is if there is a permanent spot in the Guardians rotation.

Griffin Canning: It seems like Canning should be getting more strikeouts with all his pitches having a 12% or higher swinging strike rate. His change is at 22%. He’s creating fieldable contact with the change keeping the ball on the ground and the others the generating popups.

Bailey Ober: He’s finally throwing in the majors with Maeda on the IL. He dominated AAA (2.55 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 11.2 K/9). One time that does stick out so far in the majors is a 4.0 BB/9 but he’s not been burnt by them because he hasn’t allowed a home run.

Drew Smyly: It’s an interesting profile since he’s going with just his “sinker” (8% SwStr%, 28% GB%) and curve (16% SwStr%, 44%). Also, he’s just limiting walks. His low 35% GB% will mean more home runs (0.6 HR/9, projected ~1.6 HR/9) in the future. I have him just below a 4.00 ERA talent.

Tanner Houck: Houck has nice strikeout (8.3 K/9) and groundball (53% GB%) rates and they point to 4.00 ERA talent. He will run a high WHIP with a 3.5 BB/9 and the groundballs (higher hit rate than flyballs).

Tyler Wells: A .187 BABIP isn’t going to last but everything else points to a streamable 4.00 ERA arm.

Vince Velasquez: Overall, he’s been fine (9.2 K/9, 1.25 WHIP, and 3.76 ERA) but he could be performing worse. His 3.3 BB/9 will be an issue once his .258 BABIP normalizes. Others will be higher on him but I’ve seen the up and down of his performance before. I’m just not sure why he’ll finally change his habits at his age-31 season.

Joey Lucchesi: Similar AAA and MLB numbers with everything pointing to him being a 4.00 ERA pitcher. It’s interesting to see him still getting some strikeouts (8.8 K/9) with a 90-mph fastball and no pitch with a swinging-strike rate over 10%.

Luke Weaver: In 11 IP so far, he has a 23.5% K%-BB%. That value would have him ranked eighth among all qualified starters between Pablo Lopez and Clayton Kershaw. It’s an elite number. The problem with Weaver so far is that he has a 3.9 HR/9 (career 1.3 HR/9) leading to a 7.71 ERA. I suspect the home run rate won’t continue and he could be a breakout with a new pitch mix. Currently, he’s lined up for a two start week (vs SD and CHW). I’d try to roster him, bench him, and see how the two starts go. He’s either going to garbage and can be dumped or he’s going to be a hot pick up next week.

Marco Gonzales: While I would expect his 3.32 ERA to head up a bit, it’s pretty much, what you see is what you get. A 4.00 ERA streamer.

Yonny Chirinos: He’s been inserted back into Tampa’s rotation with a start next week against the Pirates. His results so far have been great (0.64 ERA) because he has only walked two batters and hasn’t allowed a home run.

Josiah Gray: The 2.93 ERA isn’t going to stick if he continues to post a 3.3 BB/9 (1.34 WHIP) with his ERA estimators being a run higher. The reason for the low ERA is his 90% LOB% which is the 4th highest among qualified starters.

Roansy Contreras: His 3.58 ERA and 7.8 K/9 are acceptable but there are too many underlying red flags to buy. He lost 1.5 mph off his fastball from last season. His 3.9 BB/9 is completely unacceptable leading to a 1.34 WHIP. The only reason his ERA is so low is that he has yet to allow a home run run this season.

Kyle Bradish: Bradish is getting some love on the Stuff side of things possibly valuing him as a low-4.00’s ERA pitcher. The issue is that he just can’t throw strikes and his fastball velocity has dropped compared to the previous start (95.2 mph to 94.0 to 93.9). The lack of command might be from coming back from the IL too soon but I see the upside being a low-4.00’s guy. The downside is the basement.

Dean Kremer: There was nothing good with his profile to his profile before he got lit up on Saturday. He’s below average in strikeouts, walks, and limiting hard contact. The hope for a 3.23 ERA from last season is long gone.

Trevor Williams: Yes, he only has a 4.10 ERA, but his ERA estimators point to one a run higher. He just has a 5.8 K/9 with no signs of improvement.

Rich Hill: A deserving ~5.00 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Pass on him and his 87 mph fastball.

Tommy Henry: He’s struggled in his two starts (vs KC and COL) so far with more walks than strike outs (5:4). It would be nice of him to string together a few good starts.

Ryan Feltner: I can’t find a reason to roster a Colorado pitcher with a 5.0 BB/9. None.

Starting Pitcher Prospects

Matthew Liberatore: In AAA, he has a 2.60 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 11.7 K/9 in 27 IP.

Andrew Abbott: Across two minor league levels, he has a 1.74 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, and 18.7 K/9.

Closers (Saves-based ranks)

Jeurys Familia: Below-average reliever who is probably the closer.

Bryan Abreu: Good reliever who might be might be next in line for Saves.

Bryan Baker: Good reliever who is next in line for Saves.

Adam Ottavino: OK reliever who might be next in line for Saves.

José Quijada: OK reliever who is on the IL and might have lost his chances for closing.

Bryse Wilson: Fine reliever who is a couple steps away from closing.

Yennier Cano: Good reliever who is two steps away from closing.

Mason Thompson: Decent reliever who is a few steps away from closing.

Dylan Lee: Good reliever who is a couple steps away from closing, especially with Iglesias returning from the IL.

Nate Pearson: Might be a good reliever who is a few steps away from closing.

Jeremiah Estrada: OK reliever (high-strikeout, high-walk arm) who is a few steps away from closing.

Josh Winckowski: Decent multi-inning reliever who is not even close to getting Saves.

Kyle Nelson: Good reliever who is a few steps away from closing.

Chase Silseth: Might be a good reliever (first time in the bullpen) who is a long reliever.