Waiver Wire & FAAB Report (Week 18)
In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.
Batters
* The designation of (X/Y) shows the discussed pitchers (e.g. right handed) the batter is to face this week. The first number is the first half (Monday to Thursday) count with Y being those to be faced in the week’s second half (Friday to Saturday).
Kerry Carpenter: Locked into Detroit’s cleanup spot for 12 straight games while hitting .260/.322/.497 with 11 HR on the season.
Edouard Julien: He’s been on fire since being promoted the second time by hitting .380/.458/.641 (.517 BABIP) with 5 HR and 2 SB. During that callup, the Twins have faced eight lefties, Julien has only started against one of them. The Twins are scheduled to face five righties (3/2)* this week.
Chas McCormick: He is finally getting full-time at-bats (11 straight starts) because he is hitting .342/.427/.605 with 8 HR since June 1st.
Mickey Moniak: He has started in 11 straight games while hitting .335/.367/.634 with 11 HR and 3 SB in 169 PA.
Alex Kirilloff: He’s hit .333/.361/.849 with 4 HR over the past two weeks and moved to the top half of the lineup.
Triston Casas: Only starting against righties (career .787 OPS vs RHP, .685 OPS vs LHP) but crushes the ball when in (12 HR). This upcoming week he faces four righties (1/3).
Wilmer Flores: He starts against all lefties and some righties right now. When in the lineup, he’s been effective (.292/.352/.526, 12 HR).
Travis Jankowski: Jankowski is on the strong side of a platoon and has been running wild (14 SB). This weekend he’s facing the Dodgers who lets everyone run against them.
Alex Call: While he has never been a good source of batting average, he is providing some power (3 HR) and speed (3 SB) since his last call-up.
Trent Grisham: Playing every day while hitting ninth (.217/.328/.401, 10 HR, 10 SB).
Trey Cabbage: A speed and power threat (23 HR, 24 SB in AAA) but tons of swing-and-miss (31% K% in AAA, 40% K% in majors, 35% SwStr%) and has only seen 28% fastballs.
Sal Frelick: He just got the news he was called up after hitting .247/.333/.342 with 2 HR and 8 SB. I know the Brewers need some outfield help but I’m not sure Frelick is an upgrade. For reference, here are his comps.
An Adam Frazier clone? I’m not paying up for that.
Mauricio Dubón: He has hit leadoff for 13 straight games with Altuve on the IL. On the season, he is hitting an unexciting .271 AVG with 4 HR and 6 SB.
Oswald Peraza: Leading off while hitting .154/.421/.154 (42% K%) with 2 SB since being recalled.
Mike Moustakas: Has been hitting for power (5 HR, .242 ISO in 67 PA) since joining the Angels but not getting on base (.226 AVG, .284 OBP, 31% K%).
Dane Myers: He has played 12 straight games in centerfield while hitting .333/.347/.438 with 1 HR.
Jared Triolo: Ten straight starts at third with Hayes on the IL. He’s providing a .308 AVG (31% K%, .455 BABIP) but not much else.
Zack Gelof: So far he’s living up to his expectations, nothing (.231 AVG, 31% K%) except stealing a few bases (2 SB). Started in seven of eight games.
Johan Rojas: Short-side platoon bat.
Catchers
Endy Rodriguez: After surviving AAA (.268/.356/.415), he has a 69% K% in 13 PA so far.
Tyler Soderstrom: He’s struggled to adjust to the majors by hitting .136/.208/.136. Pitchers have thrown him only 30% fastballs and he is missing most of them (20% SwStr%).
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Triston Casas 1B BOS | 39% | 42% | 3% |
| Mickey Moniak RF LAA | 37% | 51% | 14% |
| Mauricio Dubon 2B HOU | 33% | 35% | 2% |
| Tyler Soderstrom C OAK | 31% | 33% | 2% |
| Alex Kirilloff 1B MIN | 26% | 36% | 10% |
| Sal Frelick SS MIL | 25% | 27% | 2% |
| Trent Grisham CF SD | 23% | 28% | 5% |
| Edouard Julien 2B MIN | 19% | 37% | 18% |
| Endy Rodriguez C PIT | 17% | 23% | 6% |
| Oswald Peraza 3B NYY | 17% | 20% | 3% |
| Zack Gelof 3B OAK | 14% | 24% | 10% |
| Kerry Carpenter RF DET | 13% | 24% | 11% |
| Chas McCormick CF HOU | 12% | 43% | 31% |
| Dane Myers CF MIA | 12% | 14% | 2% |
| Wilmer Flores 1B SF | 11% | 21% | 10% |
| Travis Jankowski LF TEX | 4% | 6% | 2% |
| Johan Rojas CF PHI | 3% | 5% | 2% |
| Mike Moustakas 1B LAA | 3% | 4% | 1% |
| Alex Call CF WAS | 2% | 3% | 1% |
| Trey Cabbage 3B LAA | 1% | 3% | 2% |
| Jared Triolo 3B PIT | 1% | 1% | 0% |
Starters
Cristopher Sánchez: Keeps shoving with a 3.06 ERA (3.51 xFIP), 1.05 WHIP, and 7.6 K/9.
Michael Lorenzen: A fine (3.49 ERA, 4.31 xFIP 1.09 WHIP, 6.8 K/9) streaming option.
Logan Allen: A fine bench streaming option (9.5 K/9, 1.37 WHIP, 3.94 xFIP).
Kutter Crawford: An acceptable 4.04 ERA (4.21 xFIP), 8.7 K/9, and 1.12 WHIP. I still believe he has another gear if he cleaned up his pitch mix, especially if he dumped the curve (7% SwStr%, 54% GB%).
Ross Stripling: He’s been legit good (3.72 ERA, 3.46 xFIP, 7.5 K/9, 0.93 WHIP) over his last five appearances (6 IP and 76 pitches in last start). His fastball velocity is up half a tick (91.9 mph to 92.4 mph). Also, he has increased his slider usage from 28% to 33%.
Jameson Taillon: While he has struggled for most of the season (6.05 ERA), he is showing signs of improvement with an 8.4 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 (4.56 ERA, 3.83 xFIP) over his last four starts. The only change I could find is that he’s throwing his four-seamer more (31% to 45%) and his cutter fewer times (23% to 13%).
José Quintana: While he allowed no runs in his 2023 debut, he didn’t miss many bats (8% SwStr%, 5.4 K/9). Roster and bench for me.
Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진: The results on his rehab starts have been great but his fastball velocity is down almost 2 mph from his last time in the majors.
In what could be his final rehab start, Hyun Jin Ryu looked pretty good once again for AAA Buffalo tonight.
6.0 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 5 K (9 whiffs) & 85 pitches (58 strikes)
Ryu's FB velo averaged 88.4 mph, maxing out at 90.8. Good progress. #BlueJayspic.twitter.com/oX4vR7qgJ2
— Thomas Hall (@Hall_Thomas_) July 22, 2023
Quinn Priester: His debut was ugly (7 ER in 5 IP, 2 K, 2 BB). While he kept the ball on the ground (57% GB%), he had no control of his secondary pitches with several bouncing before getting to the plate.
He starts again on Sunday. I’d need to see major improvements before feeling confident starting him.
Chase Silseth: He shoved in his last start against the Yankees (5 IP, 1 ER, 10 K, 2 BB, 55% GB%). He changed around his pitch mix and went always all sinker (9% SwStr%, 46% GB%) and slider (14% SwStr%, 69% GB%). There is a chance he gets his next start skipped.
Nick Pivetta: Middle reliever placeholder. As a reliever, Pivetta has shoved with a 2.31 ERA (3.17 xFIP), 13.4 K/9, and 0.83 WHIP. These stats will help a fantasy team. The stats from the starters below won’t.
Michael Grove: There is a good pitcher in him but someone different shows up every game. There are some games where he shoves and others that are clunkers. He has added a cutter (12% SwStr%, 44% GB%) that he’s throwing 16% of the time. Can’t be started but worth a stash.
Alec Marsh: While the 10.6 K/9 is great, the combination of 4.4 BB/9 and 3.5 HR/9 (26% GB%) is going to lead to a 6.20 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. He could take a major step forward if he started limiting the walks.
Graham Ashcraft: He seems to have turned a corner with a 1.82 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in his last four starts. Nothing has changed in his profile as seen by his 5.1 K/9 and 5.40 xFIP.
Ryne Nelson: He has a deserving 4.82 ERA and no recent improvements to his profile. Continue to ignore.
Matt Manning: A unsustainable .206 BABIP has him with a 3.38 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. A 6.0 K/9 won’t cut it with most projections having him as a 5.00 ERA talent.
Carlos Carrasco: A true 5.00+ ERA talent who should not be on anyone’s add lists.
Brandon Bielak: He’s surviving the season (3.46 ERA) with an 83% LOB% and near 5.00 ERA estimators. While his ERA will regress upwards, his 1.40 WHIP is already unplayable.
Patrick Corbin: His rostership rate increased again? What kind of stuff are people smoking nowadays? Since 2020, he has a 5.61 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. How is that helping any fantasy team?
Austin Gomber: A 6.18 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, and just a 6.0 K/9. He is Patrick Corbin if Patrick Corbin started in Colorado.
Allan Winans: Promoted to make his MLB debut where he went 4 IP with 2 ER, 5 K, and 1 BB. He has already been demoted back to AAA.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Lorenzen SP DET | 40% | 52% | 12% |
| Carlos Carrasco SP NYM | 35% | 37% | 2% |
| Logan Taylor Allen SP CLE | 31% | 50% | 19% |
| Matt Manning SP DET | 31% | 41% | 10% |
| Graham Ashcraft SP CIN | 28% | 31% | 3% |
| Cristopher Sanchez SP PHI | 24% | 27% | 3% |
| Ryne Nelson SP ARI | 24% | 26% | 2% |
| Jameson Taillon SP CHC | 23% | 25% | 2% |
| Nick Pivetta RP BOS | 17% | 33% | 16% |
| Jose Quintana SP NYM | 17% | 20% | 3% |
| Kutter Crawford SP BOS | 16% | 21% | 5% |
| Patrick Corbin SP WAS | 14% | 16% | 2% |
| Brandon Bielak SP HOU | 12% | 18% | 6% |
| Quinn Priester SP PIT | 12% | 18% | 6% |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu SP TOR | 11% | 17% | 6% |
| Austin Gomber SP COL | 11% | 16% | 5% |
| Ross Stripling SP SF | 11% | 12% | 1% |
| Michael Grove SP LAD | 4% | 5% | 1% |
| Chase Silseth RP LAA | 3% | 5% | 2% |
| Alec Marsh SP KC | 2% | 6% | 4% |
| Dakota Hudson RP STL | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| Allan Winans SP ATL | 0% | 2% | 2% |
Closers (Saves-based ranks)
Kevin Ginkel: Decent reliever who could be the closer.
Aroldis Chapman: Good reliever who is sharing closing duties.
Kyle Finnegan: OK reliever who is the closer with Hunter Harvey on the IL.
Jason Foley: Good reliever who is the backup closer to someone who could get traded.
Carlos Hernandez: OK reliever who is the backup to a closer who is likely to get traded.
Tanner Scott: Good reliever who is the backup to a shaky closer.
Joel Payamps: Great reliever who is the backup closer.
Yimi García: Good reliever who is a couple of steps away from being the closer.
Elvis Peguero: Good reliever who is a couple of steps away from being the closer.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aroldis Chapman RP TEX | 40% | 53% | 13% |
| Kyle Finnegan RP WAS | 30% | 35% | 5% |
| Tanner Scott RP MIA | 18% | 19% | 1% |
| Joel Payamps RP MIL | 16% | 21% | 5% |
| Jason Foley RP DET | 5% | 6% | 1% |
| Yimi Garcia RP TOR | 2% | 4% | 2% |
| Carlos Hernandez RP KC | 2% | 3% | 1% |
| Kevin Ginkel RP ARI | 1% | 11% | 10% |
| Elvis Peguero RP MIL | 1% | 3% | 2% |
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
García over Swanson is interesting
Would imagine Swanson is too widely owned to qualify here.