Bullpen Report: July 23, 2023

The 2023 version of the Bullpen Report includes five different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.

We will always include a link to the full Closer Depth Chart at the bottom of the Bullpen Report each day. It’s also accessible from the RosterResource drop-down menu and from any RosterResource page. Please let us know what you think.

1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
2. Injury News
3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save).

Click HERE to view the full Closer Depth Chart.

Notable Workloads

•Clay Holmes, NYY: 29 pitches on Saturday, back-to-back days. | RosterResource

Wandy Peralta and Tommy Kahnle are on “High Usage Alert” making Michael King, who did not appear on Saturday, the most likely to fill in for a save opportunity if Holmes is unavailable.

•Emmanuel Clase, CLE: 7 pitches on Saturday, back-to-back days. | RosterResource

Both Trevor Stephan and Eli Morgan should be available on Sunday.

•Jhoan Duran, MIN: 21 pitches on Saturday. | RosterResource

“Reliever on the Rise” Griffin Jax threw 16 pitches on Saturday but could still be available on Sunday. If not, and if Duran and Jax are unavailable, Emilio Pagán should be available.

•Trevor May, OAK: 23 pitches on Saturday. | RosterResource

Sam Moll is the likeliest to appear if May is unavailable.

•Adbert Alzolay, CHC: 16 pitches on Saturday, back-to-back days. | RosterResource

There’s a lot of “High Usage Alert” blue on the Cubs chart this morning. Alzolay, Mark Leiter Jr., Julian Merryweather, and Michael Fulmer are all running high pitch counts and have all appeared in back-to-back days. They’ll hope for Jameson Taillon to go deep into the game, but eventually, they may have to rely on Middle Relievers like Michael Rucker or Anthony Kay to fill in.

•Alexis Díaz, CIN: 19 pitches on Saturday, back-to-back days. | RosterResource

Setup men Lucas Sims and Ian Gibaut should be available on Sunday.

•Devin Williams, MIL: 29 pitches on Saturday. | RosterResource

Joel Payamps and Elvis Peguero should be available and likely to appear in a save situation if Williams is unavailable.

•David Bednar, PIT: 23 pitches on Saturday. | RosterResource

Dauri Moreta or Colin Holderman should be available.

•Scott McGough, ARI: 23 pitches on Saturday. | RosterResource

Miguel Castro and Andrew Chafin are likely to appear if McGough is unavailable.

Injury News

•None

Outlier Saves

•Justin Topa, SEA | RosterResource

The Mariners’ usual setup man, Andrés Muñoz, was put in at the start of the eighth inning with the M’s leading the Blue Jays by two runs. Muñoz threw a clean inning and struck out one. Topa was then called upon to finish out the game with a two-run lead in the ninth. The usual closer, Paul Sewald, had thrown 22 pitches the previous night and was likely unavailable. Topa came in and gave up a single to Matt Chapman, cooled things off by striking out Dualton Varsho on a swinging strike, but then gave up back-to-back singles to Alejandro Kirk and Cavan Biggio with Biggo’s hit scoring a run. With runners on second and third, Topa faced George Springer with the game on the line and was able to force a groundout and earn the save.

Topa is still on the Mariners’ Top 32 Prospects list at number 12 and at age 32. He has had a long journey to the big leagues, but as Eric Longenhagen wrote in his report, “Healthy Topa is really nasty.” Through last night’s appearance, Topa has a 2.84 ERA and has done an excellent job of limiting home runs with a 0.47 HR/9. His K/9 isn’t stand out at 8.53, but it has jumped to 10.80 in his last 10 appearances. In addition, and as was mentioned by Longenhagen, Topa is a groundball machine with a 58.6% GB% that ranks him 11th among relievers with at least 30 IP. In holds leagues, Topa is a nice add as he has consistently made back-of-the-bullpen appearances, and has recorded 14 holds and two saves in 2023.

 

Committee Clarity

•Clay Holmes, NYY | RosterResource

At one point in the season, the Yankees were doing their best 2021 Rays impression and throwing out a different reliever for the save opportunity seemingly every night. But, in the month of July, only Michael King (1) and Clay Holmes (4) have recorded saves. Holmes seems to be the go-to closer in New York at the moment. He has certainly earned his way back up to that status with a 11.05 K/9, a 1.23 ERA, and a 100% LOB rate in the month of July. As Holmes will likely continue getting the call in the ninth, look for King and Wandy Peralta to continue working as setup men.

•Justin Lawrence, COL | RosterResource

Lawrence has recorded five saves in the last 30 days to Pierce Johnson‘s one and Daniel Bard’s one. While Pierce Johnson is winning the K/9 competition with his very impressive 13.97 to Lawrence’s 10.45, Lawrence holds a tiny 0.87 ERA to Johnson’s 3.72 ERA. All of those stats come in the last 30 days, but if you zoom out and look at the season as a whole, Johnson’s 1.63 HR/9 became too much to handle the ninth-inning role and he was publicly removed from the role in early June:

#Rockies Bud Black has taken Pierce Johnson out of closer role, as expected.

Candidate’s to replace Johnson include Justin Lawrence and Jake Bird.

Black didn’t say who will be 9th inning guy going forward.

— Patrick Saunders (@psaundersdp) June 9, 2023

So far, it seems the closer job belongs to Lawrence. I wouldn’t consider that a solid statement through the end of the season as his 4.14 season-long BB/9 is scary high for a closer, but he’s gotten it down to 2.57 in the month of July. Most rest-of-season projection systems have Lawrence recording another seven saves, his K/9 increasing slightly along with his BB/9 and his ERA.

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