Waiver Wire and FAAB Report (Week 24)
Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images
Note: I’m taking next weekend off, so someone else will write the report. I might provide a small write-up on interesting players late in the week.
In this article, I cover the players using CBS’s and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change, while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now, while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. I start players being added at CBS who started the week on less than 40% of rosters.
The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference, grouped by hitters, starters, and relievers.
Batters
Heriberto Hernández: Hernández finally breaks 40% rostered with his 23 HR and 10 SB.
Kaelen Culpepper: Remains productive (.301 AVG, 3 HR) with no obvious flaws.
Héctor Rodríguez: Started 10 straight games and during that stretch, he hit .297/.350/.649 with 4 HR.
Tim Tawa: In just 280 PA, he has 9 HR and 8 SB with a .237 AVG while qualified at 1B, OF, and now 3B.
Trevor Story: Started in five of six games since coming off the IL. In 20 PA, he has a 1.000 OPS (30% K%).
Javier Sanoja: A nice bench bat who can fill in with some power and speed and a .287 AVG while being qualified at three (OF, 2B, 3B), possibly four (nine games at shortstop).
Pedro Ramírez: In 198 PA, he’s been a multi-category contributor with 4 HR, 7 SB, and a .277 AVG. Even with the return of Matt Shaw, he continues to start every game.
Yohandy Morales: He’s started all three games since being promoted with 1 HR and a 40% K%.
Connor Norby: So far in the second half (12 straight starts), he’s batting .270/.349/.419 with 2 HR in 83 PA.
Hao-Yu Lee: Starts all the time while hitting for power (8 HR) and a .266 AVG in 280 PA.
Brett Bateman: Hits leadoff with a .330 AVG and 3 SB in 107 PA. He provides no power and never has.
Jonah Cox: He starts against all the lefties and half the righties while being a solid contributor (4 HR, 9 SB, .297 AVG), but a 42% K% (65% Contact%) could derail his season.
Tristan Peters: The strong-side platoon bat is in the middle of a 10-game stretch against all righties, but will face five of six next week. He’s been a three-category contributor (12 HR, 8 SB, .281 AVG).
Cooper Pratt: Pratt has seven starts over the last 10 games with 13 SB and a .275 AVG on the season. While his overall numbers are fine, his stolen bases are down. In June and July, he stole 10 games, but just four since then.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand: After eight straight starts, he started in just three of the last five. He’s been a great source of power (8 HR in 145 PA) when playing.
Coby Mayo: Starts most of the time (eight of the last 10 games) with 19 HR (15 vs LHP) in 375 PA. He’s crushing lefties (1.121 OPS) this season compared to righties (.497 OPS). While the team only faces two lefties next week, they are lined up for four the next week.
Thomas Saggese: Saggese starts at shortstop in place of the injured JJ Wetherholt. Saggese has been decent with 4 HR, 2 SB, and a .734 OPS in 104 PA.
Vaughn Grissom: A subpar injury replacement. He has no above-league-average traits.
Lazaro Montes: Strong-side platoon bat (two righties next week) who hit 38 HR in AAA this season. He has some swing-and-miss issues with 31% K% in AAA and 33% K% in the majors. Right now, he’s not lined up for enough playing time.
John Peck: Only starts about half the time at shortstop (13 major league plate appearances). In AAA, he hit .288/.339/.502 with 11 HR and 22 SB.
Catchers
Mickey Gasper: Six straight starts with 8 HR and a .283 AVG in 178 PA.
Leo Bernal: Started all five games since being promoted (3 C, 1 DH, 1 1B) with no trouble yet against MLB pitching (83% Contact%, .267 ISO).
Yainer Diaz: Better in the second half while being a positive batting average contributor (.283/.315/.453)
Sean Murphy: Back to starting at catcher 50% of the time. Since coming off the IL, he’s batting .267/.313/.467 with 3 HR in 56 PA.
Ethan Salas: Since being promoted, he’s started in just one of four games. Fantasy irrelevant if not playing.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Story | 40% | 45% | 5% |
| Tristan Peters | 38% | 55% | 17% |
| Kaelen Culpepper | 38% | 42% | 4% |
| Yainer Diaz | 38% | 39% | 1% |
| Cooper Pratt | 37% | 41% | 4% |
| Javier Sanoja | 33% | 39% | 6% |
| Heriberto Hernandez | 30% | 41% | 11% |
| Tim Tawa | 30% | 31% | 1% |
| Pedro Ramirez | 26% | 40% | 14% |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | 26% | 33% | 7% |
| Coby Mayo | 22% | 32% | 10% |
| Lazaro Montes | 16% | 29% | 13% |
| Ethan Salas | 15% | 24% | 9% |
| Connor Norby | 13% | 20% | 7% |
| Hector Rodriguez | 11% | 20% | 9% |
| Mickey Gasper | 11% | 17% | 6% |
| Vaughn Grissom | 11% | 12% | 1% |
| Yohandy Morales | 6% | 11% | 5% |
| Brett Bateman | 6% | 9% | 3% |
| Hao Yu Lee | 5% | 9% | 4% |
| Sean Murphy | 3% | 6% | 3% |
| Jonah Cox | 2% | 8% | 6% |
| Leonardo Bernal | 2% | 4% | 2% |
| Thomas Saggese | 1% | 4% | 3% |
| John Peck | 0% | 2% | 2% |
Starting Pitchers
Zebby Matthews: Insanely good schedule coming up (CLE, LAA, SFG) and a 3.21 ERA (3.50 xFIP), 1.12 WHIP, and 7.5 K/9 over his last seven starts.
Connor Prielipp: His exact schedule is unknown (Ober returning creates an unknown), but all six teams aren’t scary (DET, CLE, NYY, LAA, SFG, TEX). With Prielipp, the ability to roster him comes down to whether the fantasy manager believes in his 5.28 ERA (61% LOB%, .318 BABIP) or 4.12 xFIP and 3.88 botERA. I’m going to add where possible.
Grayson Rodriguez: His schedule is fine with a two-start week at Boston and at Washington. Then he lines up for starts against Minnesota and Seattle. Over the season, he has incrementally improved in several facets of his game (e.g., velocity, lower walk rate, more ground balls) so that over his last seven starts he has a 3.49 ERA (3.60 xFIP), 1.24 WHIP, and 9.8 K/9.
Anthony Kay: Great schedule (STL, CLE, KCR, COL at home) to end the season. As for his talent, he seems to be a low-4.00 ERA talent, but has struggled in his last two starts (9 ER in 9 IP). Someone in every league will need to take a chance on him.
Erick Fedde 페디: He has settled into a low- to mid-4.00 ERA talent. He has to have a perfect schedule to make that workable … and he might. For now, he’s lined up to face Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Detroit, and home against Colorado.
Randy Vásquez: Vásquez’s schedule will be determined if/when Nick Pivetta and Joe Musgrove return from the IL. Right now, Vásquez should face the Nationals on Monday, and that’s all I’d count on. He’s taken a step forward over his last six appearances (five starts) by dumping his curve and leaning into his sinker (13% to 28% usage). During that time, his groundball rate (37% GB% to 53% GB%) increased, leading to a 3.48 botERA.
Quinn Mathews: The opponents are decent for the next two weeks, with the Giants next week and then a two-start week against the Giants again and the Nationals. He’s not the worst streaming option (low-to-mid 4.00 ERA talent) as long as the team doesn’t care about their WHIP (1.58 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9) getting lit up.
Cal Quantrill: For now, he seems to be lined up to face Seattle next week, but after that his usage gets a little fuzzy with Texas getting some starting pitchers back. A .243 BABIP has him with a 2.79 ERA and 1.07 WHIP while every other indicator points to a mid-4.50 talent.
Will Dion: Made his first start of the season a week ago and might start Monday. While relieving this season, he has been great (3.38 ERA, 3.40 botERA, 3.42 xFIP, 1.13 WHIP, 10.1 K/9). He has a four-pitch arsenal, which he’ll need, with a 91 mph fastball.
Corbin Burnes: Burnes threw one rehab assignment, going 2 IP, and is supposed to start on Tuesday. In his rehab start, his average fastball velocity was down 2.5 mph and did not generate one swing-and-miss. I suspect the team is going to “rehab” in the majors as he slowly builds up. I’m not sure the talent is there.
Randy Dobnak: I’m guessing his rostership rate jumped because of his two starts this week against the Marlins and Blue Jays. To finish the season, he’s lined up with the Red Sox, Pirates, and White Sox.
His talent is bouncing all over the place, especially over the last two weeks with his groundball rate down (54% to 38%), but so are his walks (3.9 BB/9 to 2.3 BB/9). I’m unsure how to evaluate him. He’s not in either of the add or avoid buckets. He’s just bleh.
Ryan Gusto: In a two-start week with an OK first start (4 IP, 1 ER, 4 K, 2 BB) and faced the Cubs (5 ER in 4 IP) on Saturday. While I have him as one of the week’s better overall talents, he is lined up to face the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and then the Cubs again. Drop him and look elsewhere.
David Peterson: I have written up Peterson so many times this year. He has the potential to be better, but he continues to walk too many batters (4.0 BB/9 with Mets and Cubs), leading to an unrosterable 1.46 WHIP and 4.58 ERA with the Cubs. And there are no cupcakes on his schedule. Stay away.
Jonah Tong: He is verified to start on Monday, and then line up for a two-start week, with the Yankees being the second start. If he remains in the majors, he’ll face the Phillies the next week. There is no way I’m starting a pitcher with a 4.54 ERA (4.98 xFIP) and 1.37 WHIP (5.0 BB/9) in AA for those two starts. In the majors, his results have been much worse (6.28 ERA, 4.64 xFIP, 1.67 WHIP, 5.0 BB/9).
Patrick Sandoval: I’m 100% out even though he has a dream matchup two-step (LAA, KCR). He can’t stop walking batters (4.6 BB/9), leading to a 4.41 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. And he is showing no improvement with 7 BB over his last 9 IP. It’s a ratio disaster waiting to happen.
Max Scherzer: One of these strikeout totals is not like the others, come on, can you tell which one?
He couldn’t maintain any momentum from his last great start, and I’ll continue to value him as an unrosterable 5.00 ERA pitcher.
Tanner Gordon: I never consider Rockies pitchers at home, even if they have a two-step (Gordon is in one now). I might have considered starting Gordon if the games were on the road.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zebby Matthews | 39% | 52% | 13% |
| Corbin Burnes | 39% | 42% | 3% |
| Cal Quantrill | 34% | 45% | 11% |
| David Peterson | 32% | 36% | 4% |
| Anothony Kay | 32% | 32% | 0% |
| Grayson Rodriguez | 28% | 33% | 5% |
| Quinn Mathews | 26% | 27% | 1% |
| Randy Vasquez | 23% | 34% | 11% |
| Connor Prielipp | 19% | 20% | 1% |
| Jonah Tong | 17% | 19% | 2% |
| Randy Dobnak | 16% | 21% | 5% |
| Max Scherzer | 14% | 16% | 2% |
| Patrick Sandoval | 11% | 14% | 3% |
| Erick Fedde | 5% | 7% | 2% |
| Ryan Gusto | 4% | 6% | 2% |
| William Dion | 3% | 6% | 3% |
| Tanner Gordon | 1% | 3% | 2% |
Relievers: Saves-based ranks
Juan Morillo: Good reliever who appears to be the closer.
Calvin Faucher: Good reliever who is the closer … for now.
Jordan Romano: Poor reliever who is the closer.
Erik Tolman: Poor reliever who may be the closer.
Andrew Kittredge: Average reliever who is sharing the closer duties.
Hogan Harris: Average reliever who is sharing the closer duties.
Elvis Alvarado: Below-average reliever who is sharing the closer duties.
Bryan Hudson: Average reliever who might be sharing the closer duties.
Paul Blackburn: Below-average reliever who is a step or two away from closing.
Alex McFarlane: Average reliever who is not close to closing.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hogan Harris | 26% | 26% | 0% |
| Jordan Romano | 19% | 20% | 1% |
| Andrew Kittredge | 9% | 15% | 6% |
| Elvis Alvarado | 7% | 14% | 7% |
| Juan Morillo | 6% | 11% | 5% |
| Paul Blackburn | 6% | 10% | 4% |
| Calvin Faucher | 5% | 5% | 0% |
| Bryan Hudson | 2% | 7% | 5% |
| Alex McFarlane | 1% | 3% | 2% |
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Anthony Molina?
I claimed him last night after watching some video. Plus heat on a straight-ish FB that he locates well, two above avg breaking balls and a change that looks really good. Good control and opposing hitters haven’t seen him much. Looks interesting…
Hi Jeff – Which of the RPs on your list are the best ratio bets RoS? Great job again this year. Many thanks.