Vlad Sedler’s 2026 Bold Predictions Recap

There was no joy in Gutville as my 2026 bold preseason predictions proved fruitless. I intentionally focused on early-round hitters, so later-round targets like Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, Logan Henderson, and Drew Rasmussen had no chance of making the cut. Read and laugh at my preseason bold predictions by position among the top 100 ADP.

Catcher – William Contreras outearns Cal Raleigh and is the highest-rated catcher

Contreras outearned Raleigh, but then again, so did just about everyone! Raleigh was a legendary bust. His most damaging stat was his .182 batting average, lowest among the 135 qualified hitters and 15 points lower than the next worst hitter, Colson Montgomery.

Contreras had a fine season as a vital part of the Milwaukee Brewers offense and a rewarding fantasy asset with his .270-82-18-94-1 roto line. Those 94 RBIs were the 10th-most in the National League and were a career high. He hit above .260 and had 17 or more home runs in his fifth consecutive season. Most importantly, Contreras amassed over 600 plate appearances yet again. His 2,589 PAs are the 20th-most since 2023, an average of 647.25 per season. For context, the only catcher-eligible hitters averaging 600+ plate appearances since 2023 are Salvador Perez (625) and Raleigh (608). Contreras’ fine roto season earned $25.7 in 12-team roto, good for the 20th most valuable hitter on the Fantasy Player Rater.

But to predict that Contreras — fantasy’s top catcher in 2023 and 2024 — would be the highest-rated catcher, let alone outearn Raleigh, really isn’t bold. Trust me, our wonderful readers made sure to point this out. Contreras was great, but did not produce the legendary season necessary to earn top-billing at the position. He finished fourth among catchers behind Ben Rice ($39.1), Hunter Goodman ($31.5), and Drake Baldwin ($28.6).

Verdict: Wrong, but partially correct.

First Base – Vinnie Pasquantino hits 40 home runs

We may read somewhere that WBC participation was the reason why Pasquantino and others like Raleigh, Jarren Duran, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Paul Skenes had down seasons. Now have those folks explain the 2026 regular season of WBC participants Pete Crow-Armstrong, Randy Arozarena, Liam Hicks, and Brice Turang. It’s a ridiculous strawman argument as Dan Szymborski so eloquently explains.

Pasquantino hit 32 home runs in 2025, but hitting 40 when most 50th percentile projections pegged him for 30 or fewer could be considered somewhat bold. Working against Pasquantino was the fact that he wasn’t an elite power hitter. Over the last two seasons, he was only slightly above average in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, exit velocity, and bat speed. I did believe that the substantial dimension shifts in Kauffman Stadium would help Vinnie P squeeze out a few extra dingers.

He started the season quite cold — from Opening Day until April 15, Pasquantino slashed just .152/.247/.197 with a 26 wRC+, a .045 ISO, and zero home runs. Was something wrong or was it a slump? He hit his first two homers of the season in his next two games, but remained relatively tepid at the plate for the rest of April. Pasquantino was removed from the game on April 28 due to lower back tightness, and the next day, he revealed to reporters that he had been dealing with back tightness “for a while.” He returned to the Royals lineup a few days later and continued trudging along until June 13 when he suffered the right hamate fracture that was to keep him out of action until after the All-Star break. Vinnie P was activated ahead of schedule, right before the break. Less than three weeks later, he was placed back on the 10-day IL due to right wrist soreness.

He was activated on August 17 and had a solid finish to the season, hitting 11 HR with 30 RBI in 145 PA. The underlying power metrics looked good as well: a 92.1 average exit velocity, 15% barrel rate, 46% hard-hit rate, and a .328 ISO. He ended the season on a good note, smashing two longballs. I probably won’t bold-predict 40 for him in 2027, but I’ll certainly consider him as a draft day target at what is likely to be a discounted price.

Verdict: Incorrect.

Second Base – Nico Hoerner is fantasy’s top second baseman

This one is embarrassing and wasn’t all that bold considering Hoerner had the fourth-highest average draft position among second basemen. Hoerner’s production was brutal. Among the 38 hitters with 2B eligibility to start the season drafted in NFBC Main Events, Hoerner finished 14th on the Player Rater despite leading all second basemen in plate appearances. In fact, his 689 PAs ranked 20th among all hitters.

Technically, Fernando Tatis Jr. was the highest rated 2B-eligible hitter, but it was Brice Turang who led preseason-eligible second basemen in fantasy baseball for the second straight season. Perhaps, you recall this spring training noise regarding Hoerner:

Nico Hoerner just hit three consecutive moonshots off the machine.

He physically looks bigger this year.

Expect a power surge from him this year.

— Wyatt Baumeyer (@wyattB2024) February 6, 2026

No one expected a full-out power surge, but an increase in home runs from his usual seven or eight to 13-15 wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility and would pair well with a plus batting average, 30-ish swipes, and a boatload of runs. At the time, there was a chance that Hoerner could spend a good chunk of the season as the leadoff hitter. We knew not of the magnificent impact that Pete Crow-Armstrong would make as an MVP leadoff man, especially since he spent the bulk of his previous season’s at-bats batting fourth.

Despite staying healthy and playing in 150 games for the fourth consecutive season, Hoerner did not provide a substantial benefit in any of the three roto categories (R, SB, AVG) that we expected out of him. He finished with 62 runs, eight homers, 72 RBI, 23 stolen bases and a .263 average. Only 32% of his plate appearances came as the leadoff man, the bulk of them (42%) in the six-hole.

His 1.4% barrel rate (1.4%) ranked fourth-lowest among 135 qualified hitters and his 85.9 mph average exit velocity ranked 12th-lowest. Both marks were slight reductions from the previous season, 2.3% BRL, 86.7 EV. Hoerner’s 28.3 ft/s sprint speed fell right in line with the last few seasons, but his stolen base attempts — from 50 (2023) to 37 (2024) to 35 (2025) to 27 last season.

All in all, it was a sobering reminder of how we should be careful investing top-100 overall picks on slap-hitters with low hard-hit and barrel rates. A player of this archetype at that price tag would need to hit their 85th percentile projection to earn a fantasy profit.

Verdict: Incorrect. Not even close.

Third Base/Shortstop – Gunnar Henderson and Zach Neto become the newest members of the 30/30 Club

Gunnar Henderson had hit 30 home runs and stolen 30 bases before, but not in the same season. This season, he wasn’t even close (24 HR, 10 SB). He played 158 games, earning the eighth-most plate appearances (tied with Alex Bregman, 702) and scored 88 runs, but the good times did not roll in any of the other four roto categories. He started the season in a slump and never truly recovered. Almost every stat or metric was down across the board in relation to the previous season:

• SB attempts: 35 to 15
• AVG/OBP/SLG: .274/.349/.438 to .226/.311/.404
• EV and HH%: 92.1 and 49% to 89.2 to 43.3%

Henderson’s flyball rate of 31.5% from 2023 and 2024 rose to a career-high 38.4% as his groundball rate dropped four ticks. Per Jeff Zimmerman’s latest Mining the News, Henderson was dealing with a right wrist injury during the season, for which he didn’t want to make excuses for, and neither should we.

Zach Neto was closer to 30/30 than Gunnar (27 HR, 24 SB in 704 PA) but didn’t quite get there. Neto was much less productive at a per-PA basis than in 2025 and I’m sure we’d all love to see him play with a better supporting cast.

Verdict: Incorrect.

Outfield – Ronald Acuña Jr. outearns everyone;  Kyle Tucker leads the National League in RBIs

Fool me thrice, perhaps consider retiring from bold predictions. The roto gods should have punished me by giving me the 1.05 or 1.06 pick in every one of my six FAAB leagues, to feel the pain of an Acuña season. This wasn’t just a “bold-predict and run” scenario — I was feeling great about him and was ready to take him in several drafts. Alas, I was only in position to draft one share, dodging the inevitable bullet.

I did not expect him to repeat or come close to 2023 (.337-149-41-106-73) when he produced the highest-valued individual fantasy hitting season. I was wildly bullish on the Atlanta Braves offense and Acuña was the linchpin. As has been commonplace with Acuña in recent years, he spent over 50 days on the IL with a shin injury and two hamstring strains. He hit 20 homers with 21 stolen bases in 469 plate appearances, but his primary power metrics were down from last season: EV from 92.7 to 89.6, hard hit rate from 52.5% to 43.5% and ISO from .228 to .196. Perhaps he will be a draft bargain at a reasonable cost in 2027, but there will be a large faction of fantasy managers who won’t want to dip their toes into that pool, and that is understandable.

Tucker’s first season with the Dodgers was his worst ever, as the struggles of the 240 million dollar man were followed with great joy by all who were not Dodger fans. They were all well-documented: his mechanical, mental and defensive struggles, conveyed in support and frustration via in-season quotes by manager Dave Roberts and by Tucker himself. He scored 90 runs in 627 plate appearances, but everything else was amiss:

Tucker wasn’t even close in runs batted in, as 83 hitters drove in more than his 70. Tucker tied Freddie Freeman and earned one more than Mookie Betts. Fewer than 20% of his plate appearances were in the top-third of the batting order. He spent 33% of them batting sixth, 36% batting fourth or fifth, and nearly 12% in the bottom-third. As we’ll likely read throughout the postseason, should the Dodgers continue advancing, Tucker has the opportunity to “redeem himself” this postseason. It’s certainly possible, and since sharp fantasy managers do their best to shut off personal bias, perhaps Tucker can gain some roto steam before we round into form for 2027 fantasy baseball draft season.

Verdict: Wildly incorrect.