Veterans to Grab as Cheap Keepers

This time of year, there tend to be a flurry of veteran players cut as Ottoneu managers either try to grab young upside for the future or dump underperforming veterans to add someone who they think can help them down the stretch. This presents a nice opportunity to find some buy-low candidates before the off-season even starts.

The key is, you need to pick up players who are:

1. Cheap enough to possibly be keepers. Spending $25 on Mike Moustakas isn’t going to help you.
2. Potentially going to change value in the offseason. They are being dropped now cause their value is down and you need a reason to believe they will be more valuable in January than they are today.
3. Better values than players already on your roster. This should go without saying, as it is always the case.

Looking at roster movement, there are some interesting names out there who fit the first two and might fit the third for your roster. All of these players have seen their roster percentage drop by at least 10 percentage points in the last 30 days, and therefore might be available in your league now or soon.

Austin Nola – Nola was a hot commodity the last couple years, but 2021 has not been great. After posting a .337 wOBA in 2019 and breaking out with a .352 last year, he is just at .316 this year. He also only has 194 PA due to injuries and the general lack of PA that go to catchers. Fantasy managers getting frustrated with him have been cutting him loose, as his roster percentage has dropped from 75.87% to 63.95% in the last 30 days.

But I think we may see a resurgence in Nola’s value this off-season. First, a .316 wOBA from a catcher isn’t that bad. He’s tied with Eric Haase for 18th among C with 150+ PA. Given the need to roster at least two C in Ottoneu leagues, that’s a guy who belongs on a roster. Second, we know he has upside beyond that, given what he did in 2020 and 2019. His career line is still a .335 wOBA which would be tied for 10th this year. In addition, diving in deeper, his season hasn’t been all bad – he is chasing less and making more contact, driving his K% way down, while still walking at a decent rate. His exit velocity looks fine, his launch angle looks fine, but his barrel rate is way down. If he maintains the launch angle and hard-hit rates, I suspect more barrels will follow.

Lastly, his September has been excellent, if brief. In 44 PA he has a .342 wOBA. If he continues to hit like that, the off-season talk track will likey be that he improved his plate discipline, fought through injuries that sapped his power, but finished strong. His current median salary is $3, and if I were picking him up, I would want to do so at that price or lower. There is some risk – he’s a catcher with a short track record, entering his age 32 season, and without a guarantee he keeps a starting job. If he has a $5 minimum bid, I am probably out. But if I can get him for $1-$3 and have the option to trade him when his value spikes in the off-season, or just keep him as a $3-$5 catcher, I think that is good option value.

J.D. Davis – All this man does is hit. He’s been up and down a bit, but since the start of the 2019 season, he has a .362 wOBA in 889 plate appearances. The problem is, he does an awful lot of that hitting as a pinch hitter, as he doesn’t have a lock on a full-time job with the Mets. If you are wondering why a 3B/OF with a .361 wOBA on the year has dropped from 98.26% rostered to 84.3% rostered in the last 30 days, it’s because he lost his job. He started regularly until late August, but since August 25, he has appeared in 20 games, getting only 33 plate appearances. He has has multiple PA in the same game just six times since that date, and had four PA in a game only twice.

All Davis needs to be a popular “sleeper” this off-season is a clear path to a full-time job, and there are two things that could lead to that: first, the Mets are likely not super happy right now and I suspect we will see some changes in the off-season. That could mean that guys are traded away clearing room for someone like Davis. It could mean Davis is traded away to a team that plans to use him. Second, with the CBA up, we could have universal DH for 2022, which would extend the Mets lineup and be a natural landing spot for Davis. Davis hasn’t had a perfect season, as his K-rate is up and his value is coming in part from a very high BABIP, but I like what he brings, if he can just have an opportunity to bring it daily. His median salary is $6, which is bordering on too much to spend, but if I had the cap room and the roster spot, he’s not a bad stash.

Kwang Hyun Kim 김광현 – On July 22, Kim threw six innings against the Cubs, striking out seven, walking one and allowing just two runs on two hits. It was his fourth straight start of 6+ innings and only the second time since June 5 that he allowed 2+ runs in a start. He had a 2.88 ERA on the year and a 3.60 FIP. His HR/FB rate was just 6.8%, contributing to a less-fun 4.52 xFIP, and he wasn’t providing the big strikeout numbers you like to see from a fantasy starter, but he was producing.

Then he got lit up by Cleveland, struggled through a short outing against Kansas City, ended up on the IL, and has since found himself bouncing between the rotation and the pen. Starting with that ugly appearance against Cleveland, Kim has a 7.27 ERA and 7.95 FIP. His strikeouts dropped, his walks increased, and his HR/FB rate went up more than 5x. Between the performance and the role change, it is not hard to understand why Kim has dropped from 74.71% rostered to 62.5% rostered. But I suspect in the off-season we will learn more about his injury and how that impacted him down the stretch, and have reason to believe the guy we saw in 2020 and the first two-thirds of 2021 is the guy we can expect going forward.

That performance with a rotation spot is definitely worth something. His $3 median salary is maybe a touch high – I would want him at $3-$4 next season, not this season – but if you can auction him and make a $1 to $2 bid, he isn’t a bad option to grab as a back of the rotation type. I am probably going to hold off on Kim, for the moment – where he is a FA, I generally have better options on my roster and don’t want to use a spot on him right now. But if a roster spot opens up or if I find I have someone else I am souring on, he’s a guy I have on my watchlist.