Utilizing Changes in Pitch Mix

Changing a pitcher’s pitch mix seems to be the newest path to success. Having a pitcher utilize his two to four best pitches can help him focus his arsenal for peak results. Finding these pitchers can be a huge advantage and the great and wonderful Eno Sarris used the original work to find Carlos Carrasco. I’m going to step an owner through the procedure using a few examples from the news so they can find their own diamond in the rough.

The basic idea behind changing a pitcher’s pitch mix is to have them throw as many effective pitches as possible. The original studies focused on above-average pitches. This is a simple method and one I use when examining a pitcher. The pitcher’s pitch results can be found by going to their page at FanGraphs, clicking o the Splits tab, then the Pitch Type Splits tab (example).

While these values are a great quick reference, I took the information and created pERA which gives each pitch an ERA grade and a 20-80 scouting scale grade (80 is elite, 20 is completely useless). The biggest change is that pitches which generate popups get valued correctly.

A pitch is considered good when it generates swings-and-misses, groundballs and/or flyballs. If it doesn’t do any of these three, a pitcher should try to change or drop the pitch. A pitcher will need a pitch they can consistently throw for strikes so some may need to keep and utilize their weak fastball more than they would like.

I do believe a pitcher can take it too far. A hitter may have in his mind the possibility of the third pitch. They aren’t looking for just two of them. BatFlipCrazy posted an example of when Blake Parker stopped throwing his curve and the results on his other pitches dropped.

As Blake Parker went from 3 pitches (fourseam, splitter, curve) to 2, the effectiveness of both his fourseam & splitter at getting whiffs dropped. He also got hit harder:

xHR: 2.1 Apr-June / 5.8 July-Sept
xOBA by month: .211/.228/.234/.292/.261/.339#FantasyBaseball #Angels pic.twitter.com/6pRjMQzqSk

— BatFlip Crazy (@batflipcrazy) February 19, 2018

There’s a fine line between too many and not enough pitches (more on those who need to add them tomorrow).

It’s tough to exactly know how a certain pitch mix will work together. There is a chance the pitcher’s performance could get worse. With that disclaimer out of the way, here are four pitchers who are looking at changing their pitch mix and the possible outcome.

Note: For each pitcher, I’m just using their 2017 pitch values. An owner can definitely dig deeper into previous seasons for additional information. I’m focusing on the most recent results as they’ll be more predictive of the future.

Anibal Sanchez

Sanchez is not close to the being the best pitcher on the list but he’s the easiest to see how changing his mix could help. Here’s the report on why the team thought they could improve his performance.

Analytics played a role in Sanchez’s signing, as the Twins believe they can alter his pitch usage to help him be more successful.
…
Twins manager Paul Molitor said. “Obviously, the long ball bit him a lot. A lot of people think it has to do with pitch usage and some other things. But they really liked a lot of the weapons he still has.”

The first step is to compare his pitches.

Yep, he throws six pitches. He’s got two obvious keepers (four-seamer and changeup) and two to drop (curve and sinker). It’s not a good sign when the four-seamer generates as many groundballs as your curveball. The slider and cutter (which may be the same pitch) could both be kept and then see how this mix works as he would need to replace 27% of the pitches he threw last season.

Possible Outcome: Even with the changes, he’s likely to project to be a 4.00 ERA pitcher at best. He’s not desirable in most leagues but in deeper leagues, he may be someone to keep an eye, especially if his strikeout rate ticks up.

Gerrit Cole

Cole is already an above average pitcher but the Astros think they can help him improve.

Any adjustments the Astros make figure to start with pitch usage. Last year, Cole threw 12.2 percent curveballs and 17.2 percent sliders, but he mostly fed off his 96-mph fastball. Hinch said some adjustments can be made.

“He’s got upper 90s in his back pocket when needs it. He’s got a good slider, he’s got a good changeup,” Hinch said. “He knows how to pitch. He can elevate, he can crossfire. Getting a good game plan in front of him is going to be really key for him. Is there going to be a tweak in usage? Maybe, if we need it. Make no mistake, there’s not an overhaul going on. He’s pretty good from the time he steps on campus, and we’ll try to tweak him like we do with every player.”

And here is how those pitches graded out.

I’d not be surprised one bit if the Astros try to take away his sinker. It doesn’t generate elite groundballs and is almost always put into play. If he needs a fastball, he should just use his four-seamer.

The slider is a keeper with a near-elite swing-and-miss rate. The curve and change get basically the same results. I think he could keep them and utilize them against hitters who are more susceptible to one or the other.

Possible Outcome: Dropping the sinker could help. It didn’t do anything useful compared to his other pitches so why not make the minor change.

Tyler Duffey

The Twins are looking to move Duffey to the rotation.

Duffey added he believes his changeup is much improved as a third pitch to go with his fastball and curveball, which will help him as a starter. But he said he’s also fine if he makes the team as a long reliever, as helping the club is his main goal.

So how do his pitches stack up?

While not horrible, his sinker is by far the worst of his two fastballs. It’s not horrible, it’s just not as good as his four-seamer. One issue with his fastball grades is that the results are as a reliever when he could bump up his velocity for a short stint. If he’s going to start, his fastball will likely play down a grade.

And his change is OK, not average but usable as a show-me pitch. I’m not sure he needs to drop any pitches as much as throwing his better pitches more often. He could drop the sinker usage to 10% and move the changeup amount closer to 15%. Throwing the four-seamer and curve 75% of the time is possibly ideal.

Possible outcome: There’s some sneaky potential with Duffey but he is going to need to change significantly.

Matt Bush

Bush is looking to make the transition from reliever to starter but the Rangers would like for him to throw a third pitch.

The Rangers want Matt Bush to develop his changeup if he ends up being in the starting rotation.

Bush mainly threw a fastball and hard slider over his two years as a reliever. He did not throw a changeup much at all, but offspeed pitches are crucial to starters going two to three times through a lineup. A changeup or an improved curveball could help.

“We have encouraged him to see the value of [the changeup],” manager Jeff Banister said. “He’s got a good one, but he has to refine it and use it more.”

The above description describes Bush’s pitch mix perfectly.

His pitches have some positive and negative traits. His fastball performed at an elite level but will likely play down as he’ll lose some velocity starting. His slider is average which complements his fastball. His curve may seem OK but both the groundball and swinging-strike rates are below average for a curve. It could be workable as a third pitch. And the sinker is a stinker.

/ducks

If they want him to throw a change, we have no idea who it will perform. The option for owners is to watch him during spring training and see how the new arsenal is working out.

Possible outcome: The is no way to know for sure how the transition will go if he must develop a change. If he just goes with his curve, he could be alright depending on how much his pitches play down with the move from the bullpen.