Under the Radar NL Fourth and Fifth Starters

With rosters set we now know the 25 men populating each National League club and that means we have a firm handle on how each rotation is set up. Throughout spring, there were several battles in the backend of rotations that are now sorted so let’s take a look at some of the fourth and fifth starters who might be ready to deliver more than their rotation spot would suggest.

Backend rotation starters aren’t usually loaded with all-format, all-situation starters, but we know that some will emerge as such. With these three, I think we have no worse than some stream options, but each also carry the upside of becoming full use guys. Well, full use outside of the normal spots where you’d consider sitting any non-ace (i.e. Coors).

Vance Worley, PIT – Worley’s resurgence was a bit of a shock given how horrid he was with Minnesota, but it feels pretty strong in terms of reliability. The Searage Method found its latest reclamation in mid-June of last year as Worley ran off a sub-3.00 ERA in 18 starts to close the season. He followed a lot of what we’ve seen be successful for Pirates pitchers with a sinker-slider approach that netted groundballs at a 49% clip (a career-high), but he added his own unique touch: the called strike.

He has always been something of a called-strike master. The league is usually in the 33-34% range and Worley has a career mark of 37% and last year’s 39% was his career-best and good for fifth in baseball from June 15th on (when Worley debuted). His 2014 run wasn’t the first time we’ve seen success from him, either. He had 131.7 innings of a 3.01 ERA in 2011 using more strikeouts, but less control in that run while still leaning on the called strike (38%).

As much as I love strikeouts, the command-and-control version of Worley is much more bankable going forward. I don’t think he has another sub-3.00 ERA season in him, but using his FIP (3.44) as a guide for what he’s capable of over a full season is more than reasonable. I think at worst he’s a home-only streaming option. I’m aware that his best work was done on the road last year, but I still trust him more in the confines of PNC Park.

Jake Peavy, SF – Peavy has enough name value to be one of those names taken late just because people recognize him and he’s a known quantity, but he still peaks at just over half-owned at his best outlet (CBS, 55%). He excellent with the Giants in 12 starts last year: 2.17 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 3.4 K:BB ratio in 78.7 innings. No one should be expecting a repeat of that, but I don’t think a full season of his 2012 ERA (3.37) is out of the question. Like Worley, at the very least he is a home-only play. AT&T Park is a great place to pitch and Peavy showed as much in his small sample last year (1.64 ERA in 6 starts).

Part of Peavy sustaining success will be the Giants understanding what he is at this juncture of his career. He is a five-inning pitcher right now. His OPS in the sixth inning and beyond last year was .882, second-worst in baseball (Jon Niese, .906). This doesn’t mean he automatically turns into a pumpkin once the sixth starts, but rather that pitch 75 or so is when the Giants need to very carefully monitor Peavy.

They have never been afraid to lean on their bullpen and they should continue that trend with Peavy. Of course when investing in fourth-fifth starters, the expectations are much lower so someone who is best capped at six innings is perfectly fine. As long as he stays upright, Peavy is someone to consider.

Trevor Cahill, ATL – Eno recently wrote at length about Cahill after his trade to Atlanta. I still like Cahill and think this move could really help. It clears the path for the sure. It’s not like Arizona was littered with several better options, but perhaps options the team would rather see about over Cahill. By stuff alone, he’s not a 5.61 ERA pitcher, not by a longshot.

I’m not sure he’ll get all the way back to his 2.97 ERA from 2010, but he wasn’t really that good in that season anyway from a pure skills standpoint. I’d be willing to trade some of those 2014 strikeouts (21%) for a return of the elite groundball rate (56%+ for four straight years before ’14), especially with Andrelton Simmons patrolling the middle infield for Cahill now. It’s probably more of a wait-and-see situation with Cahill unless you’re in a deep NL league, but if we see a thousand groundballs in his season debut and he looks like the Oakland version out of the gate, I’d jump quickly.