Gregory Polanco, Also Known as Starling Marte

In doing prep for the only non-dynasty snake draft I will be participating in this year (I split another league but will be on vacation during the draft), I was a bit shocked at how Gregory Polanco is being priced. I am a big advocate of not taking risks on hitters and not paying for “potential breakouts.” There is a big lack of certainty we all take on the pitching end and I would much rather know what I am getting and paying for out of my bats.

With that said, Polanco at an average of 158 is surprisingly low to me. I drafted Polanco in the 15th round of this draft — a draft in which I have his teammate Starling Marte as a keeper in the 18th. It was interesting that I was able to have both of them, because if I am looking at someone as a comparison I actually think statistically Marte is a great comparison for Polanco.

I do not think Polanco should be expected to produce at Marte’s level in his first full year in the majors, but I do think getting him about 100 picks later gives him some added value. The only area I see Marte having a clear advantage over Polanco is in the average and on base percentage side of things. While that is obviously a very important category, again the 100 pick differential is where I am willing to take a slight hit in one category for close to similar production.

Obviously with Marte he is a much safer bet, but what’s also clear is that in this same league I was able to draft and keep Marte a few years later when he was an uncertain asset coming off a .257/.300/.437 with five homers and 12 steals line in 182 plate appearances. Even so, where the similarities really come out are in both of their respective Steamer and ZiPS projections. Saving you a trip to their FanGraphs pages, here are the quick fantasy relevant numbers:

Marte:

Steamer: .273/.329/.428, 14 homers, 72 runs, 60 RBI, 30 stolen bases
ZiPS: .273/.329/.439, 14 homers, 85 runs, 59 RBI, 30 stolen bases

Polanco:

Steamer: .250/.306/.383, 13 homers, 60 runs, 51 RBI, 21 stolen bases
ZiPS: .259/.313/.401, 14 homers, 86 runs, 73 RBI, 26 stolen bases

Obviously I am hoping Polanco ends up as more like the ZiPS projection than the Steamer, but even the Steamer projection would have significant value in all formats. And thankfully enough, I was able to get Polanco late enough that he is really just depth for me in case an injury occurs to one of my top three outfielders. Having the insurance behind Marte running into a BABIP dip or injury is valuable enough in itself since he is as close to a carbon copy replica as you are going to get 100 picks later.

To me the strategy of drafting a guy like Polanco and not having to rely on him to be this guy but rather waiting and seeing if he is this guy is to wait on pitching and draft hitters early. It gives you the position to be able to grab Polanco as depth or as a utility option while not having to pay high prices for his upside. His first stint in the majors was not impressive, but he has the size, athleticism, and fantasy skills to help you in four of the five categories right away.