Gregory Polanco, Also Known as Starling Marte
In doing prep for the only non-dynasty snake draft I will be participating in this year (I split another league but will be on vacation during the draft), I was a bit shocked at how Gregory Polanco is being priced. I am a big advocate of not taking risks on hitters and not paying for “potential breakouts.” There is a big lack of certainty we all take on the pitching end and I would much rather know what I am getting and paying for out of my bats.
With that said, Polanco at an average of 158 is surprisingly low to me. I drafted Polanco in the 15th round of this draft — a draft in which I have his teammate Starling Marte as a keeper in the 18th. It was interesting that I was able to have both of them, because if I am looking at someone as a comparison I actually think statistically Marte is a great comparison for Polanco.
I do not think Polanco should be expected to produce at Marte’s level in his first full year in the majors, but I do think getting him about 100 picks later gives him some added value. The only area I see Marte having a clear advantage over Polanco is in the average and on base percentage side of things. While that is obviously a very important category, again the 100 pick differential is where I am willing to take a slight hit in one category for close to similar production.
Obviously with Marte he is a much safer bet, but what’s also clear is that in this same league I was able to draft and keep Marte a few years later when he was an uncertain asset coming off a .257/.300/.437 with five homers and 12 steals line in 182 plate appearances. Even so, where the similarities really come out are in both of their respective Steamer and ZiPS projections. Saving you a trip to their FanGraphs pages, here are the quick fantasy relevant numbers:
Marte:
Steamer: .273/.329/.428, 14 homers, 72 runs, 60 RBI, 30 stolen bases
ZiPS: .273/.329/.439, 14 homers, 85 runs, 59 RBI, 30 stolen bases
Polanco:
Steamer: .250/.306/.383, 13 homers, 60 runs, 51 RBI, 21 stolen bases
ZiPS: .259/.313/.401, 14 homers, 86 runs, 73 RBI, 26 stolen bases
Obviously I am hoping Polanco ends up as more like the ZiPS projection than the Steamer, but even the Steamer projection would have significant value in all formats. And thankfully enough, I was able to get Polanco late enough that he is really just depth for me in case an injury occurs to one of my top three outfielders. Having the insurance behind Marte running into a BABIP dip or injury is valuable enough in itself since he is as close to a carbon copy replica as you are going to get 100 picks later.
To me the strategy of drafting a guy like Polanco and not having to rely on him to be this guy but rather waiting and seeing if he is this guy is to wait on pitching and draft hitters early. It gives you the position to be able to grab Polanco as depth or as a utility option while not having to pay high prices for his upside. His first stint in the majors was not impressive, but he has the size, athleticism, and fantasy skills to help you in four of the five categories right away.
Ben has been at RotoGraphs since 2012 and focuses most of his fantasy baseball attention toward dynasty and keeper leagues.
I have the first pick in a 12-team keeper league where we keep 10 players every year with no restrictions. I need pitching but am enamored by Polanco.
I am choosing between Carrasco and Polanco with the first pick. Guys in my league go nuts for young hitters so the trade value for Polanco would be immense if he performs.
Any thoughts? Polanco or Carrasco?
From a blind perspective, neither, but your pick should be driven by the needs of your already well-developed team. 12 team keeper with 10 keepers is similar enough to my 10 team keeper with 10 keepers that there should be a couple proven but underrated vets available. Don’t take on more risk than you need to with that valuable first pick. Love Carrasco this year, but there is so much pitching depth. Grab a bat, avoid risk.
I agree, Ben. Polanco seems like a value pick this year. I remember last year how everybody (including myself) was anxiously waiting for Polanco to get called up. Its surprising how quickly his hype train died down (#42 OF drafted according to Fantasypros.com)
I am extremely confident that he will bounce back from his second half decline. Much better plate skills than Marte and more raw power. Buy low.
Is that supposed to be the 8th round for Marte?
I think he is referring to Marte’s ADP vs. Polanco’s and not where he drafted them in that league.
Yea but he refers to having Marte as an 18th round keeper, and then Polanco as ADP of 158 (round 15). But then states:
“Having the insurance behind Marte running into a BABIP dip or injury is valuable enough in itself since he is as close to a carbon copy replica as you are going to get 100 picks later.”
At no point does he reference the ADP of Marte and it’s just a confusing mash up of ADP analysis and his keeper league.
It’s like his 18th round Marte only serves as a “hey look at the smart pick i made”
I am excited about both of these players being a Pirates fan. I hope that Polanco takes a huge step forward this year.
The only difference between Marte and Polanco is plate discipline. Marte rarely walks and Polanco has put up decent walk rates throughout the minors. It will be interesting to see if it translates to the major league level.