Trey Baughn’s 10 Bold Predictions (Mid-Season Review)

Everybody’s doing it, so I’ll go ahead and get this out of the way.  However, I will admit I’m now quite embarrassed by these laughably bad predictions.  They are so bad that forcing you to read them again might be considered insulting.  You deserve more, so the least I can do is leave you with some classic real insults (courtesy of the interwebs) for your own repertoire.  Here goes:

Yangervis Solarte will outscore Rougned Odor in 2016.

This one might actually be the least insulting of the bunch, but I really liked Solarte coming into 2016 and also really enjoyed trying to jam both those sir names into one sentence last March.  YTD Odor has been more valuable in Roto leagues (16 HR) than weighted points leagues like FGPTS (.331 wOBA), but at the break he’s the #14 overall 2B in Ottoneu with 442 points.  Thanks to his early season injury, it’s highly doubtful Solarte will catch Odor any time soon (294 points), but his excellent .379 wOBA has him at a tidy 6.0 P/G compared to 5.4 P/G for Odor, so at least my prediction was correct in directionality, which sets up nicely for a backhanded sort of quip:

“You smell…athletic.”

Jose Abreu will win the AL MVP award.

While no one should have expected a repeat of his 2014 .356 BABIP or 29% HR/FB rate, Abreu finished the 2015 season on a high note and I thought I saw enough skill growth (combined with further adjustments to AL pitching) to make him a bold but decent candidate for a very profitable year in 2016.  Unfortunately, Abreu has gone backwards, and entered the break with the lowest Hard Hit % of his young career and just 11 HR.  While I’d still peg him as a “buy” target for the 2nd half, there’s zero chance he sniffs any type of award in 2016 and he’ll be lucky to finish in the top 20 overall 1B (currently 25th).  He’s been one of the most disappointing sluggers of the first half, so this seems appropriate:

“Some day you’ll go far…and I really hope you stay there.”

Troy Tulowitzki will play 145 games and finish as the #2 overall SS.

Yeah, this prediction is all kinds of wrong, but I sort of knew what I was getting into here by predicting Tulo playing time, which is essentially adding injury to insult.  To date Tulo has played 66 games (projected for another 55ish), but the good news is he’s actually been crushing the ball in the 80 or so AB’s he’s managed since returning from the DL in June, so the time off must have been good for him.  There’s zero chance he’ll end up the #2 overall SS in the Year of the Shortstop, but for now he’s got an outside shot at finishing the season in back half of the top 12…if he can stay on the field.

“You look like something I’d draw with my left hand.”

Sean Manaea will win the AL ROY award.

Manaea was all the rage in Spring Training…and I bought into the hype.  Aren’t we all guilty of doing this for at least one player per spring? Granted, with a 4.48 SIERA in 67 IP YTD Manaea hasn’t been terrible, especially for a rookie AL SP, but there’s no ROY in the cards here, and unless he adjusts quickly he might be fantasy waiver fodder in the second half.

“You’re about as relevant as the #9 button on a microwave.”

Jake Arrieta will repeat as the #2 overall SP and NL Cy Young award winner.

Ah, we’re making some progress here.  Had it not been for a rough late June/July skid, this prediction would look pretty good, though it’s probably the least bold of this collection.  With Syndergaard’s elbow concerns, Jose Fernandez‘s pending innings cap, and Max Scherzer’s gopheritis, Arrieta still has a better than decent chance of finishing just behind a healthy Kershaw if he can right the ship post-break and overtake Cueto, MadBum, and Kluber.  The second half of 2016 will be just as interesting for Arrieta as it was last year, but still:

“You’ll never be the man your mother is.”

Jimmy Rollins will finish as 2016 as a Top 12 SS.

Make. It. Stop.

“Sometimes it’s better to keep your mouth shut and give the impression that you’re stupid than open it and remove all the doubt.”

Willy Adames will finish 2016 as a Top 10 overall prospect.

Adames, still just 20 years old, has had a great season in AA (.379 wOBA, 13.5% BB%, 20.5% K%), so this prediction has some legs.  By just one unit of measure, Adames was ranked just inside the top 50 prospects in the game by Baseball America (#46) entering the season, and their recent mid-season update now has Adames just inside the top 25 (#23).  That’s progress, but there’s still little chance Adames overtakes the Gallo’s, Meadows, and Benintendi’s of the world right now, which is why:

“I’m glad to see you’re not letting your education get in the way of your ignorance.”

Adam Conley will be one of the most added players of 2016, finishing with at least 80% ownership.

This prediction would have looked prescient had MLB gone on strike at the end of April and just cancelled the rest of the season.  Conley finished the first month of the season with a 9.33 K/9 and 3.88 FIP, well on his way to a big ownership increase for those who caught of glimpse of his ephemeral success in spring training.  He’s still clinging to life at 89% owned in Ottoneu, but he’s been lukewarm at best since April, is still having trouble with RHP and HR’s, and might only be useable at home going forward .  If you still own Conley it’s likely he hasn’t moved far from your bench in weeks, so right now his production is about as pretty as that dolphin carousel eye-sore in Miami’s centerfield.

“You look like a before picture.”

Carlos Gomez will rebound for a Top 12 finish among OF’s.

Wow, this is bad.  Like, this bad (.268 wOBA YTD).  Funny thing is I don’t own a single share of Carlos Gomez in any fantasy league anywhere, so maybe we’ll just call this one a decoy.  Tough luck for you, thanks for reading.

“Keep rolling your eyes…maybe you’ll find a brain back there.”

The Minnesota Twins will make their first World Series appearance since 1991.

Carlos Gomez has nothing on this ironic gem.  Maybe I was blinded by the inevitability of stardom from young bats like Sano, Buxton, Kepler, and Park, and maybe I bought in too early on the Twins 2nd place AL Central finish of 2015, but what we have here is really just a dumpster fire.  Nothing has gone right for the Twins this year, who find themselves only 17.5 games out of 1st place (and a Wild Card) entering the break (32 – 56).  Byung-ho Park (.294 wOBA, 24 RBI) and Byron Buxton (.263 wOBA, 1 HR) have been especially frustrating for fantasy owners who bought in during the spring, and there isn’t a single bright spot in the rotation, either.  The chances of Minnesota reaching the World Series this season are now lower than the probability of a date between Lloyd Christmas and Mary Swanson, so this one takes the cake.  For that:

“Your momma’s so fat her patronus is a cake.”

And there you have it – the worst bold predictions ever.  I’m sorry that I offended you…I really didn’t think you’d get it.

RG bonus insult: “Your momma’s so mean she has no standard deviation.”