Trade Deadline Breakdown

The deadline delivered some big time moves on Monday, but the fantasy impact hasn’t necessarily matched the names. In fact, the aftermath on the teams the big players are leaving is where the real fantasy impact will be felt in most of these deals. Jeff covered a host of deals earlier today as well, so check that piece out, too.

JUST AFTER I WROTE THAT PARAGRAPH DARVISH WAS DEALT! A professional would just re-write it, but I’m too geeked and eager to see what the Rangers got in return, so we’ll just proceed!

Here are my thoughts on the big moves of the day and the repercussions for all teams involved:

Jonathan Lucroy to COL for a PTBNL

ROCKIES: This is the best thing that could’ve happened to Lucroy in the midst of his nightmare season (66 wRC+) with Texas. He hasn’t been able to get anything going at all this year, but maybe Coors Field can jumpstart him for a strong finish. His strikeout rate is a career-best 10.5%, but does it matter if it’s not strong contact? His 22% Hard contact rate is 12 points of his mark from the last three years and 10 points below his career mark.

A performance this poor makes me wonder if there is a nagging injury (or injuries) that he has tried to play through. Or maybe it’s a poor season that snowballed on itself, especially once he started losing more and more playing to Robinson Chirinos. The move does reinstate Lucroy as a must-own catcher in all formats just because the park could reignite this once-excellent bat.

The dream would be a repeat of his post-trade work from last year: .276/.345/.539 with 11 HR, 31 RBI, and 19 R, but that is a very low probability outcome right now. If you’ve struggled behind the dish in your NL-only league, I’m fine with being aggressive, but be smart. Two months of a catcher is rarely game-changing. The allure of Coors could cause some wild bids, but I’d settle around $20 or so (with an adjustment upward if your team uses a $1000 budget).

RANGERS: Chirinos grabs even a larger share of the playing time and enhances his fantasy value a bit. He’s only hitting .216 this year, but his 12 HR have fueled a .511 SLG en route to a solid .808 OPS. The state of catcher has made him a must in all two-catcher formats as well as a worthy consideration in single catcher setups if you were left fishing on the wire.  Now, an even stronger grasp on the starting role adds to that value in 1 C leagues.

By the way, that’s it for hitters on the move.

Yu Darvish to LAD; Willie Calhoun, A.J. Alexy, and Brendon Davis to TEX

DODGERS: Darvish got moved just under the wire. In fact, the news came out after the 3:00 PM CT deadline and gave us that final blockbuster of the day, capping a strong trade deadline period (starting with the Jose Quintana trade). Darvish hasn’t been himself this year with a 4.01 ERA, a career-worst. He is still toting a 1.17 WHIP, though, and the ERA was thrashed by two July shellackings, sending his season total from 3.11 on July 1st to the current 4.01 mark.

We can’t ignore those, but I point them out because I think the makeup of an ERA is important. If he was consistently laboring through 5-6 innings and allowing 3-5 runs en route to a 4.01 ERA, it’d be more concerning, but having the occasional dud worries me a lot less with the supporting skills. He’s still got a 26% K rate (though it’s well off his 30% career mark) and his 8% BB rate is actually a tick below his career mark. I can see him getting back to the Darvish we’ve come to expect in LA.

He is an all-in kind of guy for NL-only leaguers, especially those who stand to gain substantially from adding a big starter. You might be low in pitching points, but make sure you have the points to gain to make it worth your while with a major FAAB bid. If your league allows $0 bids, this is the kind of guy to max out on. If you need to keep some in reserve, I’d plan for $1-2 per week remaining and then put the rest on Darvish. The dream is CC Sabathia’s final two months with Milwaukee: 1.58 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 94 Ks, and a 7-2 record in 12 starts. But plan for something more like a 3.40 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 9.5-10 K/9.

RANGERS: Calhoun slotted sixth on Eric Longenhagen’s Dodgers list, while Alexy and Davis were prospects of note. All three made the updated Dodgers list at MLB.com. Calhoun posted a .298/.357/.574 at Triple-A Oklahoma City in 414 PA with 23 HR, 67 RBI, and 64 R. He started shifting to leftfield this year as his glove at second base is below average. Plus, he’s now firmly blocked by Rougned Odor so outfield seems like his route to the majors. I imagine he’ll get a September look unless some playing time opens up in August. I’d toss a couple bucks at him in an AL-only upon arrival.

Sonny Gray to NYY; Jorge Mateo, James Kaprielian, and Dustin Fowler to OAK

YANKEES: Gray joins Jaime Garcia to fortify the Yankees rotation that lost Michael Pineda to Tommy John surgery and has seen Jordan Montgomery slow down a bit, including a shellacking on Sunday (2.7 IP/4 ER). His struggles make it easy to taper his innings a bit, too. He threw 139.3 last year so I think he’d max out at 170, leaving him about 50 left. Gray joins Luis Severino and Masahiro Tanaka atop the rotation with Garcia and CC Sabathia stabilizing the backend.

Gray leaves the ultra-friendly confines of Oakland (3.08 ERA in 61.3 IP this year), but what he loses in home park, he gains in supporting defense and offense. The Athletics defense was one of the league’s worst. In fact, it was the absolute worst by UZR/150 this year and by a wide margin so while defensive metrics are tough to get a read on in a single-year sample, the fact that they’re so easily last makes it less likely that the numbers are any kind of fluke.

Yankee Stadium does amplify home runs, but HR suppression is one of Gray’s biggest traits. He has a career-high 57% GB rate which has helped slice his HR rate in half from last year’s 1.4 to 0.74, which is right in line with his 0.79 career mark. Add in that the Yankees have the third-highest scoring offense (5.3 runs per gm) plus an elite and deep bullpen to support Gray and it’s hard not to see this as a win for his value even with the move away from Oakland’s home park.

ATHLETICS: Gray’s departure clears some runway for Chris Smith to remain in the rotation when Kendall Graveman returns, which could happen this week. Smith could be an option for desperate AL-only leaguers when he’s setup with some home starts and favorable matchups in a two-start week. Graveman has appeal in more leagues than Smith, but with virtually no strikeout upside (career 15% rate), it’s limited to spot-start situations.

Kaprielian had Tommy John surgery in April so he won’t be on the radar until sometime next year. Fowler suffered a disastrous injury in his MLB debut when he ruptured his patella tendon diving for a ball and hitting a wall. He didn’t even get to have his first MLB at-bat. He’ll be back on the radar next year. Kap and Fowler slotted 43rd and 87th on Eric Longenhagen’s Top 100 list back in April. Mateo was the prize of the deal by dint of simply being healthy. He slotted 91st on (the lowest of the trio, but again the injuries have changed things) on Longenhagen’s list and he checked in on Mateo earlier this month.

Justin Wilson and Alex Avila to CHC; Jeimer Candelario and Isaac Paredes to DET

CUBS: This move decimates the fantasy value of two bright spots on the Tigers as neither Wilson nor Avila will retain the roles they had in Detroit. Wilson becomes the top lefty in the bullpen, but he isn’t snatching the job from Wade Davis. If your league uses holds, he has some appeal and even without holds, a high-strikeout, strong ratio RP has value in “only” leagues. I’d go as high as $5 for holds NL-only leaguers and settle at $1-3 in standard NL-only leagues.

Avila was having a resurgent season, annihilating righties to the tune of a .282/.398/.500 line with 11 HR in 241 PA. He goes to Chicago to backup WIllson Contreras and won’t get the same volume of at-bats against righties. Contreras can play some leftfield to get Avila in there and Avila himself can spell Anthony Rizzo from time-to-time, but there just isn’t a path to consistent playing time right now. Of course, there is still value for NL-only leaguers given how poor catcher has been in fantasy baseball this year. I’d keep my bids south of $10, but I’d still target Avila as he’s likely better than every C2 being used in your NL-only league.

TIGERS: Candelario and Paredes deepen a weak farm system in Detroit, slotting into the top 10 immediately with Candelario reporting to Triple-A and Paredes to A-ball. Candelario could be up and bouncing around the Tigers infield in relatively short order. He’d be an AL-only play in that case, worthy of a single-digit bid. John Hicks and Joe Jimenez were called up on the heels of the trade.

Hicks will back up James McCann and could fetch a buck or two as a catching option in AL-only leagues. He’s had a nice 69 plate appearances this year (.841 OPS), but he’s a career .748 OPS in the minors so you might get a few homers and little else. Jimenez is being groomed for the closer’s role eventually, but I’m not sure he gets it right away. He has a 1.56 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 37% K rate in 167.3 minor league innings. I think Shane Greene deserves the first shot that the closer’s role, but I’m worried that Bruce Rondon will get a look, despite being horrible.

Greene hasn’t allowed a run in July with 12 strikeouts in his 10.7 innings. He has only allowed five hits, but that’s’ offset a bit by seven walks. That’s all in line with his season work: 26% K, 13% BB, 6.1 H/9, 2.74 ERA, and 1.22 WHIP in 46 IP. Your need for saves will greatly determine your bids here so instead of focusing on a single number, I’ll say he’s a 2nd-tier closer in the vein of Kelvin Herrera, so value Greene as you do Herrera or others like Alex Colome, Edwin Diaz, and Addison Reed (no longer closing after his trade).

Rondon, meanwhile, just walked this article on four straight pitches. Blog posts have tight strikezones, though, so we can’t blame him. Rondon has allowed multiple runs in each of his last three outings pushing his season ERA to 12.41 in 12.3 IP. He does have a 29% K rate, but a 13% BB rate and 13.1 H/9. Sure, he’s not this bad, but last year’s 36-inning run is the only good work we’ve seen from him in 108.3 MLB IP. And sure, that’s 33% of his MLB career, but the rest of his work has been legitimately awful, making it hard to belive that last year is his true level.

Addison Reed to BOS and Brandon Kintzler to WAS

RED SOX/NATIONALS: Both of these guys jump into bullpens where they’re unlikely to close. Reed is blocked by Craig Kimbrel and while the Nationals just recently acquired Sean Doolittle, I think he’s well-positioned to maintain the role, perhaps losing a save or two to Kintzler or Ryan Madson when a stack of righties is due up in the ninth for a club. The real intrigue in these deals is what they leave behind.

METS: Jeurys Familia isn’t due back for a while, leaving the job to newly acquired A.J. Ramos. He was already closing in Miami and many expected Reed to be moved so Ramos probably isn’t that available, but he should be picked up immediately for the time being. I can actually see him holding the role even upon Familia’s return or at worse an easing of Familia back into the role and by then we’re probably looking at 2-3 weeks left in the season. And that’s all if Familia’s rehab goes as scheduled. In short, don’t assume Ramos is a short-term option.

TWINS: Kintzler was among the least-desired closers coming into the season so of course he promptly went out and saved 28 of 32 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 45.3 IP. The 27 strikeouts were really underwhelming, though. Everyone the Twins have as a likely replacement strikeout more than Kintzler, but will they be as effective? The latest Bullpen Report tabbed Taylor Rogers as the incumbent with Matt Belisle behind him. Tyler Duffey could get a look, too.

Rogers does seem like the leader of this group. He is the eighth inning guy, though he has fallen on some hard times of late with a 27.00 ERA in his last five outings (totaling just 3 IP). He throws 93 mph from the left side with a career 22% K and 7% BB rate in 101.7 IP. Being their top lefty could make them reluctant to slot him in the closer’s role, which I think would shift attention to Belisle.

He’s got the second-most innings logged in the eighth inning this year. His 4.64 ERA and 1.34 WHIP are in line with the 8% K-BB rate he’s posted this year. I’d prefer if they went to Duffey if Rogers is passed over. He throws 92 mph, has a 17% K-BB, 11% SwStr rate, and 50% GB rate in 50 IP. The fact is that none of them are particularly appealing and I wouldn’t spend much of anything, even if saves were a need.

Other Notes:

• Francisco Liriano got moved to Houston to be a reliever and could be an interesting AL-only holds option.
• Nori Aoki went back to Toronto in the deal and could find some playing time, but he’s a fringe AL-only option at best for a team in need of some AVG and maybe a couple SBs.
• Joaquin Benoit went to Pittsburgh, leaving the closer’s role to Hector Neris in Philadelphia now that both Benoit and Pat Neshek have been dealt.
• Amed Rosario was promoted by the Mets. He was the #3 prospect on Longenhagen’s Top 100 and could be an instant offensive contributor. He’s hitting .328/.367/.466 with 7 HR and 19 SB in 423 PA at Triple-A Las Vegas. If you’re in need of a middle infielder, he should be on your radar. He has the kind of talent to click immediately so he’s an all-formats consideration.