Top-75 Stats-Based Pitching Prospects

July 26, 2018

It’s time for the bi-weekly look at under-the-radar pitching prospects. As a reminder, here is what the rankings are and aren’t:

Are

A supplement to Eric’s and Kiley’s prospect rankings. This set utilizes stats, age, and some regression to find potential overlooked prospects before they start showing up on major prospect lists.

Aren’t

A complete list of every prospect. Some will be missed. I don’t care as I’m digging for one-offs. The most likely reason for not being on the list is they haven’t performed, not played much (major factor), or have graduated to the majors. Major league results are also not included.
The order doesn’t matter at all, at least to me. Why one person is #8 over some guy at #14 compared to other lists is irrelevant. These top prospects are already owned in most leagues. I feel the order only matters to desperate fan bases looking for some much-needed hope.

Top-75 Pitching Prospects

Rank	Name	TBF	Age	Round drafted	20-80 Rank
1	Kolby Allard	1066	20	1	70
2	Mike Soroka	742	20	1	69
3	Triston McKenzie	765	20	CBA	62
4	Nick Neidert	967	21	2	58
5	Bryse Wilson	963	20	4	56
6	Luiz Gohara	709	21	–	56
7	Beau Burrows	938	21	1	55
8	Jose Suarez	639	20	–	55
9	Jack Flaherty	707	22	1	55
10	Forrest Whitley	468	20	1	54
11	Peter Lambert	1014	21	2	53
12	Michael Kopech	968	22	1	53
13	Sixto Sanchez	563	19	–	53
14	Jesus Luzardo	496	20	3	52
15	Sean Reid-Foley	1040	22	2	51
16	Jaime Barria	654	21	–	51
17	Dustin May	943	20	3	51
18	Genesis Cabrera	1018	21	–	51
19	Logan Allen	961	21	8	51
20	Enyel De Los Santos	1020	22	–	51
21	JoJo Romero	963	21	4	48
22	Adrian Morejon	521	19	–	48
23	Spencer Adams	1136	22	2	48
24	Foster Griffin	1180	22	1	47
25	Ariel Jurado	1089	22	–	47
26	Brent Honeywell	568	22	CBB	47
27	Zack Littell	1015	22	11	47
28	Freddy Peralta	751	22	–	47
29	Zac Gallen	1033	22	3	47
30	Bo Takahashi	946	21	–	46
31	Wennington Romero	1001	20	–	46
32	Touki Toussaint	1056	22	1	46
33	Caleb Ferguson	719	21	38	46
34	Grant Holmes	644	21	1	46
35	Ryan Castellani	1109	22	2	46
36	Justus Sheffield	792	22	1	45
37	Joey Wentz	772	20	CBA	45
38	Ian Anderson	702	20	1	45
39	Roniel Raudes	748	20	–	44
40	Tobias Myers	595	19	6	44
41	Vladimir Gutierrez	903	22	–	43
42	Hunter Green e	309	18	1	43
43	Pedro Avila	974	21	–	43
44	Lewis Thorpe	728	22	–	43
45	Tyler Mahle	564	22	7	43
46	Luis Patino	436	18	–	43
47	Franklin Perez	428	20	–	43
48	Jose Mujica	827	22	–	43
49	Mitch Keller	889	22	2	43
50	Tyler Phillips	830	20	16	43
51	Ljay Newsome	1007	21	26	43
52	Shane Bieber	996	23	4	43
53	Sandy Alcantara	923	22	–	43
54	Brett Kennedy	908	23	11	42
55	Bryan Mata	647	19	–	42
56	Dedgar Jimenez	1044	22	–	42
57	Dennis Santana	732	22	–	42
58	Tyler Alexander	1051	23	23	42
59	Reggie Lawson	716	20	CBB	42
60	Pablo Lopez	858	22	–	42
61	Luis Ortiz	658	22	1	42
62	Jake Wood ford	975	21	CBA	42
63	Brad Keller	580	21	8	42
64	Edgar Arredondo	823	21	–	41
65	Jonathan Hernandez	860	21	–	41
66	Luis Pena	1072	22	–	41
67	Devin Smeltzer	958	22	33	41
68	Brock Burke	914	21	3	40
69	Jen-Ho Tseng	1050	23	–	40
70	Jose Rodriguez	1069	22	–	39
71	Deivi Garcia	376	19	–	39
72	Adonis Medina	839	21	–	39
73	A.J. Puk	533	22	35	39
74	Andrew Jordan	870	20	13	39
75	Walker Buehler	424	23	14	39

Overall note: It’s the point in the season where a great 2018 season starts to push pass the regression and new players begin to percolate to the top. Several names are beginning really move up. Here is a look at three such pitchers.

Bryse Wilson (Braves)

It’s like an excess of riches for the Braves with another top-10 pitching prospect. The 20-year-old righty has jumped up the rankings by having his most productive season so far at Double-A. His strikeout rate is over 10 K/9 for the first time while still maintaining a sub-3 BB/9.

Coming into the season, Wilson’s grades weren’t the best with his 95-mph fastball being his only above average pitch. Otherwise, his slider, change, and control grade out as average.

I could only find one report, from the pitcher himself, for the improvement. His change is being more productive.

“Especially the second and third time through the lineup, being able to go through and show them fastball in the first at-bat and the next two at-bats go first-pitch off-speed or first-pitch fastball — whatever needs to be done,” the hurler said. “[The changeup] helps a lot, for sure. … I think it was more of a feel thing. Being able to throw some good ones in moments that I needed them and go from there. It was a good pitch for me tonight and I executed really well.”
…
“The development of the changeup has helped a lot and the fastball has been really good lately and keeping the walks down,” he said. “Everything is kind of coming together and I’m getting used to pitching at this level. I’m getting the confidence back with all my pitches, so that’s been a big thing as well.”

Besides the improved changeup, I wonder if he’s moved from a sinking fastball to four-seamer since his groundball rate has dropped from near 60% to 45%.

I’m was interested enough to check his availability in my deep dynasty league (already owned). I’m intrigued to see his 2019 scouting reports and evaluate his chances of getting promoted to the majors.

Dustin May (Dodgers)

May’s stats seem underwhelming except for the fact he walks no one (sub-2 BB/9 in the minors). Reports have him jumping up the Dodgers prospect rankings.

Our Eric Logenhagen gives him a 45-future value with the following comment.

May is a 20-year-old carving up the Cal League. He’s been up to at least 97 this year, has plus fastball command projection, and a plus slider. He’s a 45 FV with helium.

The evaluators at MLB.com love him even more (55 future value) by ranking him 4th in the Dodgers system and have this updated report on him.

[The Dodgers] had him shift from a four-seam fastball to a two-seamer, which has jumped 3 mph this year to 92-97 mph while generating a lot of groundouts with its run and sink.

He threw both a curveball and a slider as a high school senior with little differentiation between the two breaking balls, so Los Angeles had him focus on a power curve that also elicits grounders and should become a solid offering.

Adding another quality offering to his repertoire, May has developed a hard cutter that reaches the low 90s this season. Though his changeup is in its early stages and is too firm at this point, he shows some aptitude for the pitch.

May’s stock is heading up but probably will not get a major league call this season. It’ll be interesting to see how he eventually fits into the Dodgers rotation.

Adrian Morejon (Padres)

Morejon places high in the rankings based on his high strikeouts (10.3 K/9) as a 19-year-old. Eric Logenhagen just saw him throw in a rehab start and had the following quote.

… rehab appearance of Padres lefty Adrian Morejon. Morejon threw strikes for 2.2 innings with 90-95 mph velocity while flashing a plus breaking ball and above-average changeup.

The right has some positive traits but is too far from the majors to get too excited over. He’s a watch-and-wait prospect for me.

BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG