Top 30 SP Rankings for 2020
I recently did a solo pod covering my top 30 and I made some mistakes. I didn’t include Madison Bumgarner in the honorable mentions and I forgot to transfer Jose Berrios from the scrap list to the main one I used on the pod (that’s what I get for using two different files). I decided to do a write up and get a bit deeper on the ranking. There are a lot of changes! If you listened to the pod, have fun finding all the differences.
Obviously, they are going to change even more as the season finishes and we get into the offseason, but I was somewhat surprised at how much I changed things over the course of two days just by doing some deeper research. Maybe that’s not surprising at all… of course more research should influence my thoughts on these guys. Anyway, let’s get into it!
Let me know what you think in the comments. There are 52 names listed with the Honorable Mentions (and yes, the HMs are ranked, unlike on the pod), did I miss anyone that has to be within the top 52? As for ranking disagreements, I’m particularly interested in the sharper disagreements (like 7-10 spots). Flipping #22 and #25 is more a personal preference but thinking #30 should be at #19 or something like that is worth some discussion.
| Rk | Player | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Verlander | Has 2.52 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, & 30% K-BB in 410.7 IP w/HOU |
| 2 | Max Scherzer | Even at age-35, he’ll still be a consistent 1st rounder |
| 3 | Jacob deGrom | Ws have once again held him back (7-7 rec. despite 2.68 ERA) |
| 4 | Gerrit Cole | He will be my #1 if he re-signs with HOU this offseason |
| 5 | Walker Buehler | Has fully delivered on incredible draft hype; only 25 in ’20 |
| 6 | Chris Sale | Still top 25 this yr despite 4.40 ERA bc of 36% K% & 1.09 WHIP |
| 7 | Shane Bieber | Going to contend for some IP crowns which is so valuable |
| 8 | Stephen Strasburg | Pacing toward 2nd 200+ IP season; has literally never been bad |
| 9 | Blake Snell | Still has 9th-best K-BB this yr despite ups & downs |
| 10 | Clayton Kershaw | 6th-best ERA & 9th-best WHIP of Top 30… very nice |
| 11 | Mike Clevinger | Could’ve built on great 200 IP ’18, but inj. cost him 2+ mos. |
| 12 | Noah Syndergaard | Can he just get to HOU already so he can reach his potential? |
| 13 | Patrick Corbin | Backed up huge 2018 w/another great season; quiet stud |
| 14 | Luis Castillo | Ascent began in 2H of ’18: 2.64 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 28% K in 215 IP |
| 15 | Aaron Nola | Has regained ace status this summer (2.09 ERA, 83 K in 73.3 IP) |
| 16 | Charlie Morton | Age (36) will suppress his price making him a fantastic buy |
| 17 | Trevor Bauer | Inconsistency remains remarkably frustrating; ’18 was career yr |
| 18 | Jack Flaherty | SL surge driving insane 2H: 0.79 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 56 K in 46.3 IP |
| 19 | Chris Paddack | Really eager to see what a full yr has in store for the cowboy |
| 20 | Zack Greinke | Not sure he can get better at age-36, but HOU works wonders |
| 21 | Jose Berrios | Might not have another level, but this level works just fine |
| 22 | Corey Kluber | Still worried that poor FB will foster a late-career HR issue |
| 23 | Mike Soroka | Fantastic ratios make his modest K% easy to take on |
| 24 | Lucas Giolito | Everything in breakout is backed up, but will it hold for ’20? |
| 25 | Shohei Ohtani | When we learn more about his 2020 SP outlook, we can adjust |
| 26 | Hyun-Jin Ryu | His 1.64 ERA & 4% BB% since ’18 are best among top 30 arms |
| 27 | Yu Darvish | If BB gains are real, he’s once again a premium arm |
| 28 | Sonny Gray | Shift out of NY has panned out as planned |
| 29 | Frankie Montas | PED susp. cut breakout short, but improvements were real |
| 30 | Domingo German | Needs to cut HR rate to maximize 21% K-BB; has K upside, too |
| Hon. | Caleb Smith | 28% K% since ’18 is tied w/Strasburg & Buehler |
| Hon. | James Paxton | 2018 HR issue exacerbated in NY + more injuries & now age-31 |
| Hon. | Kyle Hendricks | 3.48 ERA this yr would be highest in 4 seasons if it holds |
| Hon. | Tyler Glasnow | Greatly improved control was driving breakout before inj. |
| Hon. | Mike Minor | 4th-best ERA of Honorable Mentions since 2H of 2018 (3.09) |
| Hon. | Lance Lynn | 3rd-best FIP of Honorable Mentions since 2H of 2018 (3.06) |
| Hon. | Matthew Boyd | 3.0 HR9 has curb-stomped ERA over L10 starts (5.97) |
| Hon. | Brandon Woodruff | Stupid oblique strain has stunted an impressive breakout |
| Hon. | Madison Bumgarner | Need to see where he lands as 2.95 home ERA is carrying him |
| Hon. | Carlos Carrasco | Handling his leukemia is the only concern right now |
| Hon. | German Marquez | Coors caps upside, the park remains undefeated |
| Hon. | Robbie Ray | Excellent K/poor WHIP combo always costs fair market price |
| Hon. | Zack Wheeler | Mid-4.00s ERA masks strong skills in breakout follow-up |
| Hon. | Luis Severino | Could miss the entire season; love the upside, but be careful |
| Hon. | Julio Urias | 22 y/o will be in the rotation next yr |
| Hon. | Luke Weaver | Flexor strain derailed breakout; could get Sept. starts |
| Hon. | Eduardo Rodriguez | Could still find another level, but for now he’s a fantasy #3 |
| Hon. | David Price | Will be 34 y/o coming off a tough season & currently on IL |
| Hon. | Max Fried | New SL has added K upside to one-time top prospect |
| Hon. | Kenta Maeda | Essentially a RH, older, & cheaper verison of Robbie Ray |
| Hon. | Zac Gallen | Dominated bouncy ball AAA for 91 IP (29% K-BB, 0.71 WHIP) |
| Hon. | Brendan McKay | Base skills are impressive (21% K-BB); intriguing ’20 upside |
Little surprised Dustin May isn’t an HM, he did well in the minors and has been very good in the majors so far (SSS of course). Is he missing due to performance or uncertain opportunity?
Just not there yet. Could see it as he could be in the McKay / Gallen realm